Pop Chart 11/28/2003

[ChartKid]

4

[irice22]

4

Is that in response to the Beyoncé question?

[ChartKid]

yes.

[Keith3000]

This week's chart (ie. Nov 28) will be the last one for the 2003 calendar year, right? I wonder whether "Where Is The Love" will go recurrent before Sunday's final update...Chingy, Michelle Branch, and Clay Aiken all have decent bullets and may enter the Top 20 before Sunday night. If WITL ends up being #1 for 2003, it will be interesting having the song still on the chart.

[EvanJ]

If it stays on and is eligible, would "Where Is The Love?" get enough recurrent airplay to make the 2004 chart?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

EvanJ said:

If it stays on and is eligible, would "Where Is The Love?" get enough recurrent airplay to make the 2004 chart?

Lemme check.........

Yeah. It will.

[JCMF3]

EvanJ said:

If it stays on and is eligible, would "Where Is The Love?" get enough recurrent airplay to make the 2004 chart?

I would say it should. I don't know what the threshold usually is for the #100 song of the year, but if it is eligible, the recurrent play should certainly help it make the top 100.

[Cerebro]

JCMF3 said:

I don't know what the threshold usually is for the #100 song of the year...

Last year's #100 song had somewhere in the neighborhood of 33,000 spins. I wouldn't imagine the threshold fluctuates too much from year-to-year (maybe give or take a few thousand, at best).

[Dan G.]

This week's going to be VERY close. At the current rate based on Friday afternoon, 3 Doors Down would hold off OutKast by 26 spins. My money's still on OutKast, though... I think they'll pick up a little more over the weekend.

[EvanJ]

Cerebro said:

Last year's #100 song had somewhere in the neighborhood of 33,000 spins. I wouldn't imagine the threshold fluctuates too much from year-to-year (maybe give or take a few thousand, at best).

I predict the Black Eyed Peas will get more than 33,000 spins in 2004.

[Cerebro]

EvanJ said:

I predict the Black Eyed Peas will get more than 33,000 spins in 2004.

No doubt, they will. The only question is whether or not they will be eiligible for inclusion on the 2004 year-end chart. If it's still a current on the 12/5 chart (the first of the '04 chart year, we presume), then it'll be eligible.

[JCMF3]

Cerebro said:

No doubt, they will. The only question is whether or not they will be eiligible for inclusion on the 2004 year-end chart. If it's still a current on the 12/5 chart (the first of the '04 chart year, we presume), then it'll be eligible.

There is no way BEP will be on the 12/5 chart. In fact, they look to go recurrent this week as either Clay or Michelle enter the top 20.

On another note, Britney's #10 spot is seriously in jeopardy as "Perfect" is ready to enter the top 10, and Maroon 5 doesn't look like it will fall below. So, we might have yet another #11 peaking song this year to add to the list.

BTW, it would be so strange if the no-#2 peaking streak ended on the last chart of the year. Now, I have no doubt that Outkast will make #1, but for the R&R chart year of 2003, it could peak at #2...

[Keith3000]

JCMF3 said:

BTW, it would be so strange if the no-#2 peaking streak ended on the last chart of the year. Now, I have no doubt that Outkast will make #1, but for the R&R chart year of 2003, it could peak at #2...

Good observation. But if you want to go by the R&R chart year rather than the calender year, then technically "Jenny From The Block" should also be included; it peaked at #2 last December.

[ted11804]

We are at our 2nd to last update:

I don't think that Outkast can pass 3 Doors Down, now that their bullet is down to +901. Next week definitely. I also don't think Simple Plan will pass Britney. Maybe on Monday's update but not by tomorrow.

And a little farther down the countdown is the battle for the Top 20:
19 CHRISTINA AGUILERA...3394...-636
20 BLACK EYED PEAS.........3283...-668
21 MICHELLE BRANCH.......3273...+275
22 CLAY AIKEN...................3213...+434
23 CHINGY/LUDACRIS........3160...+608

So can Chingy jump to 19 as a result of the largest bullet? Will anyone be able to pass Christina and send her recurrent? It is obvious Black Eyed Peas are leaving this week. Will Michelle be passed by Clay Aiken and Chingy and have to stay another week at #21? If Christina doesn't get passed, she could be backwards bulleted to #22.

What do you think will happen?

[Mega248]

We are at our 2nd to last update:

Actually, these are still four or five more updates before the final one tommorow night. Unfortunatly, I'd say Simple Pain has an 80% chance of grabbing #10.

[JCMF3]

Keith3000 said:

Good observation. But if you want to go by the R&R chart year rather than the calender year, then technically "Jenny From The Block" should also be included; it peaked at #2 last December.

Oh yeah.

[BillboardBoy]

If it stays on and is eligible, would "Where Is The Love?" get enough recurrent airplay to make the 2004 chart?

I'm not sure what the cut-off dates are, but I do remember that "Waterfalls" was #100 for 1996 when the song didn't even chart that year.

Another observation: once "Senorita" is removed from the chart, that will bring Justin's long stretch of consecutive weeks in the top 40 (not sure about top 50) to an end. It'll be 65 weeks.

As of AT40 next weekend, Christina Aguilera will be at 63 weeks. She's got a long way to go to beat Jennifer Lopez, who's the solo female artist with the most consecutive weeks in the Top 40. I forget the exact number, but Janet's in second place with 86 weeks.

[BFMR]

only 45 spins between #10 Britney and #11 Simple Plan, while Britney's spins have decreased more (from near -50 yesterday to -167) Simple Plan's increase may have to rise slightly more in order to make sure that Britney doesn't get #10

[radiorules]

Simple Plan should have no problem getting into the top ten by tomorrow night, they are ONLY 45 spins away. It looks like MATM will peak at #11.

[irice22]

Too bad for "Me Against the Music," I hope Maroon 5 can fall below it so she can make Top 10 which she has been at all week! I am glad Simple Plan is getting a Top 10 hit with their most deserving song, but can't they wait a week?

[Mega248]

If the Black Eyed Peas had waited a couple more weeks to fall below #20, the first single probably would've outlasted its follow-up in the top 50. When's the last time that happened?

Does anyone think Trapt could set a longevity record on pop like they did on alternative (and active rock?) or come close? The song's already in week 19 and I certainly don't see it falling very fast at all.

[Hervard]

BillboardBoy said:

If it stays on and is eligible, would "Where Is The Love?" get enough recurrent airplay to make the 2004 chart?

I'm not sure what the cut-off dates are, but I do remember that "Waterfalls" was #100 for 1996 when the song didn't even chart that year.

"Waterfalls" fell out of the Top 40 the week the 1996 chart year began, which was mid-December (back then, the last week in December was counted for the current year). The song spent four additional weeks on the chart. You're probably wondering "How is that possible? Surely the song must have spent at least twenty weeks on the chart!" Well, back then, the recurrent rule did not yet exist for CHR. If it had, "Waterfalls" would not have made the survey, since it had been on for thirty-some weeks. I wonder what the #100 song would have been in that case?

[Mega248]

Here's another example: "Where My Girls At?" by 702 went recurrent in December of 1999 but made the 2000 year-end chart.(I don't remember what # it was, but it was in the top 80 at least.)

[HER MINAJesty]

Will "Hey Ya!" be able to make #1 before the final update? It's only 200 something spins behind 3 Doors Down, could it squeeze in right before the final buzzer?

I don't think it will, probably finishing around 100 spins behind 3 Doors Down.

If 3 Doors Down hangs on, will this be the 1st week at #1 for "Here Without You"?

and this is the last chart for 2003, right?

[Keith3000]

virgoluvsmusic said:

If 3 Doors Down hangs on, will this be the 1st week at #1 for "Here Without You"?

and this is the last chart for 2003, right?

It won't be the first week; they were at #1 for two weeks before Beyonce took over. As for the second question, yes, I think this is the last chart.

[HER MINAJesty]

Ok cool thanks

I thought Here Without You was #1 for a bit there, thanks for clearing it up

[Matt4319]

Mega248 said:

If the Black Eyed Peas had waited a couple more weeks to fall below #20, the first single probably would've outlasted its follow-up in the top 50. When's the last time that happened?

"Going Under", probably.

[Keith3000]

Well, Britney and Madonna are now out of the Top 10, according to the latest update; didn't think they'd slip to #11 so soon. I guess now chances are the song will have a #11 peak on the main chart.

BEP are out of the Top 20 and will go recurrent this week, Clay has entered the Top 20.

With 136 spins between OutKast and 3DD, it looks like "Here Without You" will most probably get its 3rd non-consecutive week at #1 this week, though "Hey Ya" may just get it. Spin totals will be very close though.

[EvanJ]

Matt4319 said:

"Going Under", probably.

"Roll Out (My Business)" and "Saturdays (Ooh! Oooh!)" fell off the chart at about the same time, but I don't remember which happened first.
"Complicated" must have outlasted "Sk8er Boi" on Hot Adult Contemporary.
I think "A New Day Has Come" outlasted "I'm Alive" on Adult Contemporary. "That's The Way It Is" outlasted the followup flop "I Want You To Need Me" on Adult Contemporary and maybe CHR-Pop Sans Recurrent Rule. You could say the same thing for Creed on some formats with "One Last Breath" and then "Don't Stop Dancing"/"Weathered."

[FreakyFlyBry]

Will Michelle Branch ever make top 20? This week, it was Clay that knocked her out of the top 20, and Chingy and possibly Ludacris will pass her next week.