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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Feb 25, 2004 15:51:43 GMT -5
I forget if we had this topic already for this year but I remember it for last year.
The rules are: you get THREE choices to predict the #1 song of 2004 on CHR/Pop R&R and you have until the end of March to have your predictions final.
Who do you think will be #1 for 2004?
My first pick is 'This Love' by Maroon 5!
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Post by singingsparrow on Feb 25, 2004 16:16:32 GMT -5
My first pick will be Jet's "Are You Gonna Be My Girl" just to be interesting.
Sincerely,
Noah Eaton
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DuckHead
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Post by DuckHead on Feb 25, 2004 16:37:19 GMT -5
Don't Tell Me- Avril Lavigne
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j
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Post by j on Feb 25, 2004 16:41:25 GMT -5
My first two picks are This Love and My Immortal, and I respectfully reserve the right to change either of my picks until March.
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Post by af18c on Feb 25, 2004 16:43:12 GMT -5
Heres 2 tentative picks:
This Love
My Immortal
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Feb 25, 2004 17:40:58 GMT -5
With You Jessica Simpson.
Toxic Britney Spears.
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Feb 25, 2004 17:47:56 GMT -5
I'll pick "My Immortal", and I'll make the second later.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Feb 25, 2004 20:16:25 GMT -5
"My Immortal" or " Don't Tell Me."
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Feb 25, 2004 20:31:42 GMT -5
Heres 2 tentative picks: This Love My Immortal Man, I sure hope you're right! It's been a damn long time since one of my favorite songs was the top song of the year. Wait, I don't even think it's ever happened before... |
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Feb 25, 2004 21:11:58 GMT -5
"My Immortal" or "Don't Tell Me." I agree with these two. The thing that could hurt Avril would be a quick release of a second single. |
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Crushcrushchris
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Post by Crushcrushchris on Feb 25, 2004 23:03:34 GMT -5
Toxic or My Immortal.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Feb 26, 2004 0:45:55 GMT -5
A lot of people are saying "My Immortal", but I really don;t see that one having lots of longevity on the pop chart and on pop stations with recurrent airplay. It just seems like a song that will fade away by July or August.
I am going to boldly say that the #1 of 2004 is not on the pop chart yet. However, if I had to choose one song that was on the pop chart right now, I would say that This Love has the highest potential for longevity and recurrent airplay for #1 status.
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crash46
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Post by crash46 on Feb 26, 2004 1:01:16 GMT -5
"The Reason".
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Post by RRMusicGuy on Feb 26, 2004 1:50:40 GMT -5
outkast: "The Way You Move" :o :o :o
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Feb 26, 2004 3:04:21 GMT -5
I agree with JCMF3 that the #1 of the year is probably not on the charts yet, but of all the current singles, "My Immortal" definitely seems the most likely.
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Post by krazymack on Feb 26, 2004 6:12:40 GMT -5
Some rock song. ???
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msanoja
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Post by msanoja on Feb 26, 2004 6:26:52 GMT -5
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Post by flarbygarby on Feb 26, 2004 9:19:53 GMT -5
what are you talking about? A rock song rarely goes to #1 on a year end chart. It's usually always relegated to the #2 spot, but never #1. I'll counter that and say it'll probably be some R&B or Hip Hop song.  |
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Feb 26, 2004 10:13:14 GMT -5
what are you talking about? A rock song rarely goes to #1 on a year end chart. That's true...except for the past six years. I don't get it...are you being sarcastic? |
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Feb 26, 2004 10:40:41 GMT -5
what are you talking about? A rock song rarely goes to #1 on a year end chart. It's usually always relegated to the #2 spot, but never #1. OK, that totally doesn't make sense. Here is a listing of the songs that have topped the year-end CHR/Pop charts for the past few years: 2003: When I'm Gone/3 Doors Down 2002: How You Remind Me/Nickelback 2001: Hanging By A Moment/Lifehouse 2000: Everything You Want/Vertical Horizon 1999: Every Morning/Sugar Ray 1998: Iris/The Goo Goo Dolls Those look like rock songs to me. The last time a hip-hop group had the top song of the year was way back in 1992, when Boyz II Men ruled the year-end survey with "End Of The Road" and even that was a tender ballad. One might argue that Dionne Farris, of the hip-hop group Arrested Development, was a hip-hop singer, but her number one song of 1995 didn't sound hip-hop at all. In the 1990's, three songs one could call " dance" songs were the top song of the year (" Dreamlover" in 1993, "The Sign" by Ace Of Base in 1994 and "Missing" in 1996). The other years of the 1990s had slow songs at the top (1990: Vision Of Love, 1991: "(Everything I Do) I Do It For You", 1992: "End Of The Road" and 1997: "You Were Meant For Me" ) However, the current trend is for rock songs to top the year end chart. That being said, "This Love" sounds like the most likely of the songs charting now to rule the year end chart. |
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Feb 26, 2004 10:50:42 GMT -5
Boyz II Men is not even remotely a hip-hop group.
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Feb 26, 2004 11:04:33 GMT -5
2003: Here Without You/3 Doors Down You might want to change the song title there... ;) |
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on Feb 26, 2004 15:03:48 GMT -5
If it's a rock band it should be Ev or Maroon 5.
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Post by singingsparrow on Feb 26, 2004 15:22:20 GMT -5
In case any of you are curious why I chose Jet's "Are You Gonna Be My Girl?", here are some rambles I had:
1) As it is, "Are You Gonna Be My Girl?" is gracing so many different formats. It's Top 20 on ALL FOUR rock formats (Rock, Active Rock, Alternative, Triple A). It is gathering adds on Hot AC and has a strong bullet on CHR/Pop, which I also believe "AYGBMG" will hit Top 10 on CHR/Pop. With album sales increasing, that puts the icing on the cake for a successful crossover recipe.
2) "Toxic" and "With You" will most definitely not finish the year at #1. Longevity just doesn't work 90-95% of the time with pop stars. Both singles will likely fall between -700 and -1200 within the next month when their next singles are released.
3) "My Immortal" and "This Love" will undoubtedly be big competitors for #1. But somehow I feel, as 50 Cent and Black Eyed Peas proved last spring/summer, it helps to give the big push not in January or February, but during the months of spring. Both "In Da Club" and "Where Is The Love?" finished incredibly strong because they "arched" their singles performance. That is, January and December acted like the poles of the arch, with June and July being the pinnacle of the arch.
So really what I'm thinking here is "My Immortal" will undoubtedly finish in the Year-End Top 10, but not at #1, given it isn't March yet and already "My Immortal" is Top 5 on the CHR/Pop chart. "This Love" has more of a chance to go #1 because it only just made the Top 10 and likely won't lose their bullet until late April to early May. Unless their single drops fast, #1 may be up for grabs for them.
Avril Lavigne may have a shot AS LONG as her single doesn't move like +1500 immediately. If her single moves at an incredibly rapid speed up the chart, she'll have no shot at even the Top 10.
But Jet still has a long way to go before they reach their peak it appears to me. I feel they possibly won't peak until June or July, and with their airplay gracing multiple formats, they'll fall at a slow to moderate pace on the chart. That's where I came to my conclusion I can see Jet finish #1 year-end possibly.
With that in mind, I will make "This Love" my second guess for #1 and will keep my third open till March.
Sincerely,
Noah Eaton
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Post by Radiorocks on Feb 26, 2004 15:42:42 GMT -5
"Where Is The Love?" was the #1 song of 2003. I am sick of all these rock songs cheating and releasing their songs in the beginning of the year just so they can have the false title of being the #1 song of the year, that's a bunch of bull crap. There are the real #1's of the year...
2003: Where Is The Love or Here Without You
2002: Complicated
2001: Fallin
2000: Bye, Bye, Bye
1999: Livin Lavida Loca
1998: My Heart Will Go On
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Feb 26, 2004 15:44:35 GMT -5
"Where Is The Love?" was the #1 song of 2003. I am sick of all these rock songs cheating and releasing their songs in the beginning of the year just so they can have the false title of being the #1 song of the year, that's a bunch of bull crap. There are the real #1's of the year... 2003: Where Is The Love or Here Without You 2002: Complicated 2001: Fallin 2000: Bye, Bye, Bye 1999: Livin Lavida Loca 1998: My Heart Will Go On This is such a lie. Everyone knows "Hanging By A Moment" was the #1 song of 2001. |
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Post by singingsparrow on Feb 26, 2004 15:52:43 GMT -5
"Where Is The Love?" was the #1 song of 2003. I am sick of all these rock songs cheating and releasing their songs in the beginning of the year just so they can have the false title of being the #1 song of the year, that's a bunch of bull crap. There are the real #1's of the year... 2003: Where Is The Love or Here Without You 2002: Complicated 2001: Fallin 2000: Bye, Bye, Bye 1999: Livin Lavida Loca 1998: My Heart Will Go On How could "Here Without You" be #1 for 2003? It wasn't released until the early summer of last year. Also, I disagree with the rest of these. "Complicated" was close to finishing #1, but "How You Remind Me" ousted her. In 2001 "hanging By A Moment" was undoubtedly #1. 2000 belonged to "Everything You Want", and so forth. Rock songs have had a recent history of finishing #1 at the year-end I feel particularly because pop artists like to release thei singles quicker, and also because Pop radio in the last five years has been particularly more CHR/Rhythmic and Urban leaning and having a rock hit every now and then tends to stand out among the rest. Sincerely, Noah Eaton |
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Feb 26, 2004 15:54:02 GMT -5
"Where Is The Love?" was the #1 song of 2003. I am sick of all these rock songs cheating and releasing their songs in the beginning of the year just so they can have the false title of being the #1 song of the year, that's a bunch of bull crap. There are the real #1's of the year... 2003: Where Is The Love or Here Without You 2002: Complicated 2001: Fallin 2000: Bye, Bye, Bye 1999: Livin Lavida Loca 1998: My Heart Will Go On Where did you get THAT information? |
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Post by Radiorocks on Feb 26, 2004 16:04:23 GMT -5
I don't care about "spins", because that's an unfair and selfish way of determining a #1 song. I am talking about audience impression, and mainstream appeal. R & R does not know how to compile their year ends. Billboard's CHR Pop year end is a lot more accurate than this junk.
Billboards Top 4 song of 2003:
1. Where Is The Love
2. I'm With You
3. ???
4. Beautiful
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Feb 26, 2004 16:07:04 GMT -5
"Where Is The Love?" was the #1 song of 2003. I am sick of all these rock songs cheating and releasing their songs in the beginning of the year just so they can have the false title of being the #1 song of the year, that's a bunch of bull crap. There are the real #1's of the year... 2003: Where Is The Love or Here Without You 2002: Complicated 2001: Fallin 2000: Bye, Bye, Bye 1999: Livin Lavida Loca 1998: My Heart Will Go On Radiosucks, I really don't understand you at all. I try. but I just cannot. What kind of response are you expecting from your post? Ok, I get what you mean by "Where Is The Love" being the #1 song of 2003 according to the calendar year. That's fine, but you know we're talking about the R&R chart year that runs from December to the following November, and "When I'm Gone" was officially #1 for the year. Let's see...according to Rick Dees, "Complicated" was #1 for 2002. Where you got all the other songs from is beyond me. Is each the longest running #1 for each year (a totally useless way of looking at it)? If it is, then I don't see how you can include "Fallin'" and "My Heart Will Go On". And no, I seriously doubt the recording company actually considered releasing singles from Lifehouse, Vertical Horizon etc early in order to top the year end chart. Get a life. Knowing you, I know I'm wasting my time with this post, just like you wasted your time with yours...but at least my post makes sense. |
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