j
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Post by j on May 3, 2004 11:41:28 GMT -5
Predict who stays in the Top 20 this week and who falls out.
It's nice to see Avril keeping her bullet, but she's not going to move up any higher this week.
I'm happy Trapt is on the chart. I think it'll be a Top 5 hit.
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on May 3, 2004 19:25:08 GMT -5
Hmm... two threads with the same title posted at virtually the same time... what're the odds?
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on May 3, 2004 19:33:00 GMT -5
This topic was made just seconds earlier, so this one will stay and the other one will be deleted. I'll paste ulij20's post here though...
Sticky, please...
It looks like Maroon 5 will spend at least one more week at #1, depending on the momentum of Hoobastank's song, which looks like a sure bet for the next #1 song.
D12 looks to have peaked out at #3, as they slips a spot to four and Mario Winans and Beyonce are almost surely going to pass D12 in the next few weeks. Mario Winans will probably be the song to unseat Hoobastank at the top. Beyonce doesn't have much of a chance, but she might be able to sneak a week at #1, again, depending on the momentum of her competing songs.
Looks like Jessica Simpson is going to be hit with the "#11 curse", as "Take My Breath Away" looks to be stopping and is more than 250 spins away from the Top Ten. Moreover, there will almost surely be no new entries to the Top Ten on the 5/14 chart - maybe not even the 5/21 chart, but it's too early to tell.
It's also hard to tell whether or not Kimberley Locke will get any higher than #20. "Eighth World Wonder" is up only 58 spins, but not too far behind the descending songs above it, so it could move up via the vacuum effect, but probably not past #18.
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Unexpected
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Post by Unexpected on May 3, 2004 21:34:56 GMT -5
Sheesh, how long has Liz Phair been on the chart?
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Post by singingsparrow on May 4, 2004 2:10:33 GMT -5
Look at "Roses" kicking into high gear. I knew it was only a matter of time before it would take off. Jessica Simpson may actually make the Top 10 by default of Britney Spears. If she can maintain her current spin totals, she will get back-to-back Top 10 hits. "Don't Tell Me", the single that thinks it can, that thinks it can, that thinks it can. Can it go Top 10 or is it hanging by a thread? Black Eyed Peas now seem destined for Top 10 again. Competition for "Hey Mama" is distant, and J-Kwon, Evanescence, Britney Spears, and both of Jessica's singles are setting up the plate. Blink-182, another dark horse for Top 10 stardom? Once again...Switchfoot is going to be trampled on by artists with larger bullets in the climb up the chart. Five tracks are coming up fast, with Sean Paul bound to frustrate Switchfoot this week, Jay-Z and Yellowcard perhaps the following week, and Mis-Teeq and Outkast the third week. But can this healthy underdog prove to them slow and steady wins the race? Three Days Grace are finished...or are they? Los Lonely Boys: at +362! Finally, CHR/Pop has heeded our call for the next Triple A crossover smash! With increasing album sales and omnipresence of "Heaven" on Triple A and Hot AC formats, this single is bound to float on cloud nine. Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on May 4, 2004 10:03:34 GMT -5
This topic was made just seconds earlier, so this one will stay and the other one will be deleted. I'll paste ulij20's post here though... Thanks, Matt.
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Post by flarbygarby on May 4, 2004 10:16:54 GMT -5
Hoobastank still have a long way to go before reaching number 1. Unless Usher and Maroon 5 start losing big chunks of spins, I don't see them hitting number one for another 2-3 weeks.
Here's my prediction:
Hoobastank will snag the #1 spot, but only for a week or so. Mario Winans has the advantage of a quadruple bullet and it doesn't look like he'll be slowing down anytime soon; he'll take over #1 soon after Hoobastank.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 4, 2004 16:49:42 GMT -5
Three Days Grace are finished...or are they? They're probably done for good this time. They only regained a bullet due to their AT40 debut - and now that's worn off.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 4, 2004 17:01:26 GMT -5
Predict who stays in the Top 20 this week and who falls out. Kimberley Locke will get back in if she can somehow stay ahead of Switchfoot AND Sean Paul OR if she can pass two of Outkast, Linkin Park, Nickelback, Chingy. Switchfoot can get in if they can pass Kimberley AND somehow stay ahead of Sean Paul OR if they can pass two of the four. Sean Paul can get in if he can pass Kimberley AND Switchfoot OR pass two of the four. Jay-Z, I think, is a bit too much of a longshot this week. Outkast can stay in if they can somehow stay ahead of Kimberley, Switchfoot, AND Sean Paul. Nickelback is likely to stay in since even if all three pass them, with Chingy likely to fall below, all three passing would leave them at #20. Linkin Park is all but a given to stay in this week, EVEN if Jay-Z was to pass them. Chingy, since he's losing 2 & 1/2 times as much as Outkast, Nickelback, and LP, is not likely to stay in the Top 20.
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Post by chebingeo on May 4, 2004 18:42:45 GMT -5
They're probably done for good this time. They only regained a bullet due to their AT40 debut - and now that's worn off. Don't come back now ya hear!
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crash46
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Post by crash46 on May 5, 2004 0:01:22 GMT -5
Has "Someday" broken Blues Traveler's longevity record yet? goodness gracious me, it seems like they must have shattered it by now.
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Post by singingsparrow on May 5, 2004 5:39:10 GMT -5
Has "Someday" broken Blues Traveler's longevity record yet? goodness gracious me, it seems like they must have shattered it by now. The recurrent rule in the mid-90's was far different than it is now, so it's hard to say. I doubt it, though, as "Someday" has yet to best the longevity records of tracks like "Higher" and "Hanging By A Moment" Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on May 5, 2004 8:03:33 GMT -5
Right. Comparing a song's longevity now to those of songs in the mid-90s is like comparing apples to oranges. "Higher" and "Hanging By A Moment" are the record holders for the 20/20 recurrent rule (not sure what the record is for the 26/25 rule, though)
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Post by chebingeo on May 5, 2004 8:42:16 GMT -5
Right. Comparing a song's longevity now to those of songs in the mid-90s is like comparing apples to oranges. "Higher" and "Hanging By A Moment" are the record holders for the 20/20 recurrent rule (not sure what the record is for the 26/25 rule, though) Edwin McCain is the record holder for 26/25 with 45 weeks in the top 50.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 5, 2004 8:54:20 GMT -5
So that must make
the record for the No Recurrent Rules Era.
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on May 5, 2004 9:45:49 GMT -5
Edwin McCain is the record holder for 26/25 with 45 weeks in the top 50. How could I forget that one? That's the song that would have fallen off the chart (but allowed to re-enter after a few weeks, I'm sure) via the 20/20 rule.
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on May 5, 2004 9:51:03 GMT -5
So that must make Blues Traveler longevity record the record for the No Recurrent Rules Era. Well, Top 40-wise, that may be true, but the record for the Top 50 chart would be "Another Night" by The Real McCoy, with 50-some weeks to its name. I'll have to look through my charts and see how many weeks both songs had before falling out of the Top 40. Edwin McCain might have held the record had the rule been 20/20 all along, depending on how many weeks before it would have been allowed to re-enter. As for the 25/-3 rule, that was so short lived that there is no real "longevity record" for that rule. As I said, comparing the longevity records of all the songs since the PPW era started is like comparing apples to oranges, on account of all the different recurrent rules that were used over the past ten years.
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Post by Matt4319 on May 5, 2004 14:12:18 GMT -5
As I said, comparing the longevity records of all the songs since the PPW era started is like comparing apples to oranges, on account of all the different recurrent rules that were used over the past ten years. Definitely. For example, "In Da Club" would have lasted over a year in the top 40 had there been no recurrent rules.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on May 5, 2004 15:23:58 GMT -5
Switchfoot have finally cracked the top 20 in their 18th week in the top 50. It might even rise 22-16* this week!
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jmason
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Post by jmason on May 5, 2004 15:32:47 GMT -5
Though I think Jessica's remake is the one of the worst I've heard, I would still like her to get to #10, but It doesn't look that way. John on Open House Party said he forgot the lines-I think she's playing to dumb!!!
8th World Wonder may get to #19 with 3 people leaving the top 20, and two more pushing her out of the way. Hopefully her album will help her!!! I'll half to wait till Thursday to see where she landed.
Alanis needs to release her song already only 28 stations are playing it, with no new format starters!! It will get old soon.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on May 5, 2004 17:37:53 GMT -5
...but the record for the Top 50 chart would be "Another Night" by The Real McCoy, with 50-some weeks to its name. 52, to be exact. 54 if you were to count holiday weeks.
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JayBoozer
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Post by JayBoozer on May 5, 2004 17:58:45 GMT -5
How many weeks has "Don't Tell Me" been on the chart?
Does anybody know the record for the most weeks to get to the top 10? At this rate I think Avril could do it in 3 weeks (that is if her bullet keeps up).
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on May 5, 2004 18:13:11 GMT -5
Does anybody know the record for the most weeks to get to the top 10? Just a guess, but I'd go with Edwin McCain's "I'll Be" (if someone else would be so kind as to give the number of weeks...)
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Radical347
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Post by Radical347 on May 5, 2004 18:16:48 GMT -5
Right. Comparing a song's longevity now to those of songs in the mid-90s is like comparing apples to oranges. "Higher" and "Hanging By A Moment" are the record holders for the 20/20 recurrent rule (not sure what the record is for the 26/25 rule, though) What about "Everything You Want"?
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j
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Post by j on May 5, 2004 18:26:43 GMT -5
Just a guess, but I'd go with Edwin McCain's "I'll Be" (if someone else would be so kind as to give the number of weeks...) Rick Dees said it took 30 weeks to get to #10 on his Weekly Top 40.
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Pet Shop Boy
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Post by Pet Shop Boy on May 5, 2004 18:34:09 GMT -5
Modern slow top tenners include 'You Were Meant For Me' 'All You Wanted' and 'You Gotta Be'
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capital_guy
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Post by capital_guy on May 5, 2004 21:38:23 GMT -5
*IF* Avril were to make the top ten in three weeks, there is no way it would come close to a record for slowest climb into the top ten. Remember she didn't take much time to reach the top 20. Even recently I would think Nickelback would have taken longer with Someday.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on May 5, 2004 22:13:00 GMT -5
Just a guess, but I'd go with Edwin McCain's "I'll Be" (if someone else would be so kind as to give the number of weeks...) Checking my Casey's Top 40/American Top 40 notes, it took 32 weeks to get to the top 10 from within the top 40. I don't know how many weeks it spent in the 41-50 range.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 6, 2004 5:54:56 GMT -5
The Bad News: Kimberley Locke is down to +7 and may be done :'( The Good News:
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Post by singingsparrow on May 6, 2004 9:42:29 GMT -5
Switchfoot have finally cracked the top 20 in their 18th week in the top 50. It might even rise 22-16* this week! Sean Paul may pass up Switchfoot by the Sunday update. But even if that happens, Switchfoot will likely leap to #17! :) Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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