HITS 4/20 Bieber, MGMT

[Deleted]

BIEBER, MGMT GO
FOR THE TOP SPOT

This Week's #1 Record Will Barely Break 80k for Lowest Seller Since Last Year

April 14, 2010

The Easter resurrection of the record business is over.
In the second week after our Lord and Savior rose from the dead, album sales have gone the way of the Dead Sea Scrolls.

In initial one-day returns from those music retailers who haven’t transformed their stores into pawn shops, Justin Bieber and MGMT will battle it out for #1, with a total that should threaten the previous low, Chrisette Michele’s 83k last May.

Columbia’s collegiate art-rockers, a Best New Artist Grammy nominee last year, will score the week’s highest debut with their sophomore album, Congratulations, already being cited as the most left-field major label release in many a year. Based on early reports, the album should do between 70-75k and at least challenge for a #1 bow.

Next up are fellow Columbia prog-rock metallurgists Coheed & Cambria, whose latest chapter in their ongoing sci-fi saga, Year of the Black Rainbow, is on target for a very respectable 55-50k total.

Rhino/Atco’s new Jeff Beck album, Emotion & Commotion, his first solo studio effort in more than seven years, will debut with between 20-25k.

Natalie Merchant’s first album for Nonesuch, Leave Your Sleep, 26 poems by the likes of Ogden Nash, Robert Louis Stevenson, Edward Lear and Rachel Field, set to music, should do in the 15-20k range, the same as the eponymous Atlantic debut from American Idol alum Jason Castro.

Asylum rapper Gucci Mane’s The State vs. Radric Davis (his real name) is looking at 12-15k, as are Atlantic’s YouTube a cappella sensation Straight No Chaser and Mercury’s Laura Bell Bundy, the latest Luke Lewis tout which was reported to be the initial release under UMGD chief Jim Urie’s new aggressive pricing policy Velocity.

Glassnote’s Justin Nozuka could do between 8-10k next week, which would put him on the cusp of the Top 50.

The market was down 23% vs. last week, down 33% vs. same week last year (which was Easter) and now down 10% year to date. Look out below.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

OUCH! Not good figures at all.

What is the next big or notable release?

[areyoureadytojump]

^I don't know. It's too quiet.

[galvanize]

I thought MGMT could do over 100K based on the fact that they & Vampire Weekend have had the same amount of hype & buzz over the past two years.

Although I think MGMT will increase over the week like Gorillaz did... I'm all for them getting the #1 album.

[HolidayGuy]

When they say "previous low," they mean for this time of year, I gather? Cause the lowest #1 tally since 1991 is 60K or so, I believe.

The release schedule is kinda short on BIG releases- next week is the "Glee" Madonna EP, and then on 4/27, there's Godsmack. These are the only releases HITS has down, that sold 500K+ with their last release.

[Black Jesus]

Come on MGMT!

[PDC1987]

Disappointing for MGMT considering their first album is about to cross 600,000 and all the hype they had.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

This is not looking good for new artists. I wouldn't be shocked if B.O.B debuted at #1 with low numbers in the next two weeks.

[bibliotheque]

HolidayGuy, they're saying that if MGMT debut at #1 then it will be the lowest sales tally for a #1 debut ever, and that's the record Chrisette has now. This is from the BB200 article when it happened last year.

So that's the good news. The bad news? Michele's opening of 83,000 is the lowest sum for a No. 1-debuting album in Nielsen SoundScan's 18-year history. Previously, the low-water mark was held by Johnny Cash's "American V: A Hundred Highways" (American) in the summer of 2006, when it started with 88,000. Only one other album has debuted at No. 1 with less than 100,000: the Notorious B.I.G.'s "#1's" (Bad Boy) in November of 2005 with 99,000.

[wavetunes]

I expected more from Jason Castro. 15-20k is a bit low.

[fran182]

I think those are decent numbers for MGMT. I'm yet to listen to this new record, but I hope it conquers the top spot.

[Honeymoon]

I hope MGMT is able to reach 100k in the end of the week by some miracle, I thought they had a great amount of buzz

[HolidayGuy]

Ahh, OK- I overlooked the "debut" part. :) Thanks, biblio.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

I think it will end up like this:

MGMT - 80k+
Justin B - 75k
Usher - 60k
Coheed & Cambria - 50k

[Minor Scratch]

MGMT should be doing a lot better. At least 100K. I think the record released way too early and their net-savvy fans gobbled it up a while ago. Though, Vampire Weekend leaked early as well and sold almost double the amount. Not sure what's going on here.

[GRRR]

Chrisette Michele isn't the lowest selling #1 debut. Live on the Inside by Sugarland is. FAIL.

[wavey.]

Is Gucci's Album being re-released?

[Osaka Sun]

Apr 14, 2010 21:00:47 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Is Gucci's Album being re-released?

I think they're confusing it with The Burrprint 2, which is a mixtape that was released this week. I'm not sure though.

[WotUNeed]

Gotta admit, I thought MGMT could open in the 100k area. It's not a bad prediction, but it's not an impressive one either. We'll see what comes to pass. Maybe they'll have a nice Saturday spike thanks to Record Store Day; they're the kind of act celebrants could get behind, and they've contributed a release for '10 (a 12" of "Siberian Breaks").

[Deleted]

Apr 14, 2010 17:52:33 GMT -5 GRRR said:

Chrisette Michele isn't the lowest selling #1 debut. Live on the Inside by Sugarland is. FAIL.

Saved by not actually being #1 when they charted.


Michael Jackson beat them that week.

[pnobelysk]

Apr 14, 2010 15:37:55 GMT -5 wavetunes said:

I expected more from Jason Castro. 15-20k is a bit low.

true but hes from idol season 7 which is long over 8 is the focus now sales wise ; they waited a while to release him

[CTE]

Usher sales aren't that good, are they?

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Apr 14, 2010 23:04:57 GMT -5 CTE said:

Usher sales aren't that good, are they?

1st week - 330k
2nd week - 92k
3rd week - possibly under 70k

[Love Plastic Love]

I don't get why everyone is freaking out over Usher's sales. He has been in the game for nearly 15 years and is still debuting over 300K and will easily sell gold even without a massive everywhere hit.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Gold is the standard for artists like Usher? Yeah, today's standards are considerably low.

[Love Plastic Love]

I wouldn't necessarily say standard, but he has been in the game forever. I would say steadily pounding out gold to platinum cds is better than most artists will be doing 15 years into their career especially without multiformat smashes to fuel them. Hell, that is better than what most artists do 5 years or less into their "careers" From what I understand some of his songs are just getting started too so it is possible he will stabilize and at least hit that platinum mark.

[asg4]

Apr 14, 2010 15:02:13 GMT -5 @2m said:

BIEBER, MGMT GO
FOR THE TOP SPOT


The market was down 23% vs. last week, down 33% vs. same week last year (which was Easter) and now down 10% year to date. Look out below.

alot of ppl on this board were fast to say the declining record sales are going to end this yr. But i think CDs will continue to fall
until they become obsolete. All major retail is cutting down size of CDs. the bottom is 3yrs away.

[Deleted]

We should wait till the year is at least half way over before we pass judgement on the music industries future. So far I'm not really worried because it seems like the album section is recovering a little (mostly thanks to strong releases this/last year: Need You Now, Soldier Of Love, Bieber, Gaga, BEP, Ke$ha, Boyle).

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Apr 15, 2010 2:47:40 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

I wouldn't necessarily say standard, but he has been in the game forever. I would say steadily pounding out gold to platinum cds is better than most artists will be doing 15 years into their career especially without multiformat smashes to fuel them. Hell, that is better than what most artists do 5 years or less into their "careers" From what I understand some of his songs are just getting started too so it is possible he will stabilize and at least hit that platinum mark.

To each his own, but when you have people like Sade, Maxwell, and to a lesser extent, Whitney Houston, doing Platinum numbers/shipments with ease with no Pop radio support, then I don't think there is really an excuse for someone like Usher to not do the same. I just think people like to use the sales climate and minor factors to defend some of these artists doing less than they are expected to do. Alicia had no Pop hits. She had an Urban hit but she managed to do 1.2 million. That's another reason why I don't support the Usher argument. But we have yet to see what he does in the long run.

[Baby In a New Dress]

^ What do those 3 older artists have in common?! Waiting 10 YEARS to release their albums!

Alicia was coming off of the biggest studio album of 2007, with 3.7 million copies sold.

Usher's last album was released less than 2 years ago and only sold 1.2 million copies. How can you compare the situations? He's still trying to work his way back on top, Alicia was coming straight FROM the top.