Death of CD/ How about vinyl

[Deleted]

www.cnn.com/2010/SHOWBIZ/Music/07/19/cd.digital.sales/index.html?hpt=C1


CNN) -- If you think the musical compact disc is dying or dead, you're probably younger than it is.

"Show me a teenager buying a Susan Boyle album on CD and I'll show you someone buying a gift for their grandparent -- for Christmas," jokes Billboard senior chart manager and analyst Keith Caulfield. "There is definitely an age component to the consumption of music."

As the music industry as a whole struggles in a down economy and direct download business models like iTunes flourish, the compact disc -- which was commercially introduced in 1982 -- has the appearance of going the way of vinyl.

And contrary to the recent declaration of singer Prince -- who said that the Internet is dead and released his latest CD for free via European newspapers -- there's some evidence that consumers aren't as enamored with ripping the cellophane off that new CD as they once were.

According to data from Nielsen SoundScan, in 2007 CDs accounted for 90 percent of album sales in the United States, with digital accounting for the other 10 percent. Just two years later, that number had shifted to 79 percent CDs and 20 percent digital, with the remaining percentage point being made up of vinyl and other media.

Billboard's Caulfield said that so far this year, about 44 million digital albums have been sold, compared with 40 million during the same time frame last year. But while digital sales have increased slightly, CD sales have dropped from 147 million last year to 114 million this year for the same time period.

Caulfield stops short of speculating on a date when CDs might be phased out, but he does see similarities with the history of other media.

"Vinyl was the predominant configuration from the '50s and the '60s all the way up through the early '80s, and then cassettes became the predominant format from the early-mid '80s to the very early '90s," he said. "Then CDs became the predominant format and cassettes really didn't go away until a few years ago. It's kind of a natural progression, to a degree."

That's not to say that some artists aren't still selling well. Country group Lady Antebellum has so far racked up 2.4 million in album sales -- both CD and digital -- making them the top-selling act so far for 2010. In second place is teen phenom Justin Bieber, with 1.4 million.

"When an artist like a Drake or Eminem sells a bunch of albums, that shows that there are a lot of people that really want to spend money and give money to the artist that they are really, truly a fan of," Caulfield said. "The younger an artist skews in terms of who they appeal to, you'll see a larger share of their album sales tilt towards digital."

One obvious benefit of digital downloads is their ability to scratch an immediate itch. Caulfield observes shows like Fox's "Glee" make songs almost instant hits because "they have already heard and liked the song by the time they download it." Paul Grein, who writes the "Chart Watch" column for Yahoo.com, agrees, seeing hope for the music business in the success of "Glee" and "American Idol," which have helped spike downloads.

Despite the CD's decline, Grein believes the format will be around for the foreseeable future.

"I think it's becoming less of a mass-market item and kind of a niche product that caters to a small but loyal following," he said. "But there are enough cases where we are seeing albums that are selling in big numbers that I think they will be around for a while." Younger-skewing artists, such as singer-rapper Ke$ha, enjoy a larger slice of the digital pie than older-skewing artists such as James Taylor, he says.

Indeed, the format isn't the point, he said. In 100 years, recorded music has gone from cylinders to shellac 78s to vinyl LPs to cassettes, CDs and now digital downloads. Through it all, listeners still crave tunes.

"Music is definitely still in fashion," he said. "It's all around us."

[cking33]

My favorite part of that article, Paul Grein referring to "singer-rapper" Ke$ha, haha.

[HolidayGuy]

^I know- a bit of a stretch categorization. it's not clear if the writer decided to categorize her as such, though, as it wasn't a direct quote, but paraphrased.

Since CDs still are the dominant configuration, it probably will be some time before they fade into oblivion. But it would be nice if at some point CD sales stop declining and still are selling at OK levels.

[Enigma.]

'"When an artist like a Drake or Eminem sells a bunch of albums, that shows that there are a lot of people that really want to spend money and give money to the artist that they are really, truly a fan of," Caulfield said.'

Exactly. Acts with personality -- Eminem, Gaga, Drake, Lady A, JB --- sell albums too. It's not very relevant if those sales are physical or downloads. They are album sales nevertheless.

I still buy all my albums on CD.

[singingsparrow]

It'll be some time, but they'll eventually follow the same fate as VHS cassette tapes and go obsolete as a format, aside from a handful of indie-leaning record outlets that may still embrace the CD until they find a suitable replacement that honors a larger work of art rather than just singles, much like there are still a handful of stores that specialize in vinyl 45s.

But the bottom line is, with the availability of music on social networking media (YouTube, MySpace, file-sharing engines, LastFM, etc.), a growing satellite radio market along with a wide array of digital radio stations to choose from, Plug and Play and portable devices such as iPods, to name just a handful, of choices to listen to your favorite music to these days..............and the fact that certainly not all, but many artists, want their music to be heard above all else, and with many artists who don't necessarily advocate illegal downloading of music also admitting that they get all their profits through touring and don't make a dime off of record sales................really, the only incentive of purchasing additional CDs, or keeping ones you already own (I'll certainly keep the ones I have) is out of sentimental value, or possibly the need to "complete" an artist's collection as long as they keep printing releases in a CD format.

The Black Eyed Peas' notion that there will be no record stores in the future is stretching it surely, but in the future CD stores will be much like what vinyl 45 stores are now.

Namaste,
Lisping Hibiscus

[Wolfy]

Jul 21, 2010 11:18:25 GMT -5 @singingsparrow said:

It'll be some time, but they'll eventually follow the same fate as VHS cassette tapes and go obsolete as a format, aside from a handful of indie-leaning record outlets that may still embrace the CD until they find a suitable replacement that honors a larger work of art rather than just singles, much like there are still a handful of stores that specialize in vinyl 45s.

But the bottom line is, with the availability of music on social networking media (YouTube, MySpace, file-sharing engines, LastFM, etc.), a growing satellite radio market along with a wide array of digital radio stations to choose from, Plug and Play and portable devices such as iPods, to name just a handful, of choices to listen to your favorite music to these days..............and the fact that certainly not all, but many artists, want their music to be heard above all else, and with many artists who don't necessarily advocate illegal downloading of music also admitting that they get all their profits through touring and don't make a dime off of record sales................really, the only incentive of purchasing additional CDs, or keeping ones you already own (I'll certainly keep the ones I have) is out of sentimental value, or possibly the need to "complete" an artist's collection as long as they keep printing releases in a CD format.

The Black Eyed Peas' notion that there will be no record stores in the future is stretching it surely, but in the future CD stores will be much like what vinyl 45 stores are now.

Namaste,
Lisping Hibiscus

I completely agree. I have no use for CD's anymore. The CD's I do own I just have them there for memorabilia purposes. I made mp3's of all my old CD's and put the CD's in a box that's just there gathering dust. Web radio stations are 1000x better with far less commercials than radio. I listen to songs on my ipod/iphone and on web radio stations. Last.fm and Pandora are my favorites! I think anyone that discovers these new ways to listen to music will quickly give up on radio and CD's. The popularity of the iphones and ipods that have internet access on them is going to lead to the death of CD's and radio. The only times I listen to the radio is when I'm forced to (putting gas, at the dentist, while shopping, etc).

[cking33]

Jul 21, 2010 9:45:34 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^I know- a bit of a stretch categorization. it's not clear if the writer decided to categorize her as such, though, as it wasn't a direct quote, but paraphrased.

Since CDs still are the dominant configuration, it probably will be some time before they fade into oblivion. But it would be nice if at some point CD sales stop declining and still are selling at OK levels.

Oh, yeah, I see, that part isn't in quotes. When I originally read it, I thought it was. Still funny that the writer or editor put rapper/singer in front of Ke$ha though.

[David]

I think what will ultimately move things more towards digital, is easier access to playing them in the car and other places. I know a lot of home stereos are adding in places for mp3. However, most cars still have only CD slots. There are some being introduced with mp3 player adapters of some sort.

[doak]

I prefer to buy the actually CD, if I really care about the artist. Nothing better than ripping the wrapping off, reading the credits and listening to the CD.

[WotUNeed]

Jul 21, 2010 11:18:25 GMT -5 @singingsparrow said:

really, the only incentive of purchasing additional CDs, or keeping ones you already own (I'll certainly keep the ones I have) is out of sentimental value, or possibly the need to "complete" an artist's collection as long as they keep printing releases in a CD format.

I think you're overlooking a practical advantage of the CD: sound quality. The digital realm still has a long way to go as far as developing files that offer similar sound quality to CDs, especially with MP3s being the most popular format of digital music. Until digital technology advances to compensate for the lacking sonic values, CDs will still have a place in the market.

[Bob]

it's been looming for a decade

[Caviar]

Jul 22, 2010 17:07:59 GMT -5 WotUNeed said:

Jul 21, 2010 11:18:25 GMT -5 @singingsparrow said:

really, the only incentive of purchasing additional CDs, or keeping ones you already own (I'll certainly keep the ones I have) is out of sentimental value, or possibly the need to "complete" an artist's collection as long as they keep printing releases in a CD format.

I think you're overlooking a practical advantage of the CD: sound quality. The digital realm still has a long way to go as far as developing files that offer similar sound quality to CDs, especially with MP3s being the most popular format of digital music. Until digital technology advances to compensate for the lacking sonic values, CDs will still have a place in the market.

^^^ That's true but the average consumer cannot distinguish between CDQ and digital music sound quality; especially now that music producers and engineers are mastering tracks at higher compression rates. What will ultimately accelerate digital tracks would be higher digital music devices in cars, cell phones, and players at home.

[legend1982]

I think I'm alone in this, but for music that uses real instruments there is nothing better than vinyl. I would actually like to see that format make a comeback. The "perfect" sound of CDs gives songs a cold feeling. But, I agree, I can't really tell the difference between CD and MP3 qualities.

[David]

I think a fan's need to buy physical music is the physical reasons. They want to be able to touch the booklet, the CD and know that they just supported their fave. Buying digital music, you just get music, you don't get an album. If that makes sense.

[singingrulebritannia]

Plus you can save hard drive space (and money) by streaming music from the CD and not a saved audio file.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

CDs will always have a market just like records do. Eventually the sales will plateau and reach a sort of norm.

[weaver]

CDs will be, or already are becoming, marginalized, as people obtain music in other ways, like simply buying it on an iPhone. It will be a while til they are totally phased out. I still buy CDs if it's an artist I really like, or I've heard multiple songs I think are good.

[Glove Slap]

If I buy an album these days, it's usually online. The main reason for that for me, and for a lot of college-aged people I think, is storage space. CDs take up too much physical space that could be used for other things.

[popindustrialist]

The chains are already gone, the Mom & Pop record stores are now Mom & Pop DVD/Gamer shops that also have a few CD's onhand in case anyone's interested, the Big Boxes reduce available floor space by the day ...

Note that there's never been any consolidation. A chain vanishes and there's no uptick in the competitions sales, just further declines. Why? Because CD's are an impulse purchase for most people. Take the CD's off the racks and the sales vanish because the impulse is never stoked at the retail level.

That's why I think the death of the CD is a done deal. We're just waiting for the last Wal-Mart to finally give up on them.

[pnobelysk]

i was really thinking and im being serious in a few years the lowest albums on the top 200 chart might be selling less the 1000 copies. do u think at any time the billboard 200 could be come billboard 150?

[Libra]

Jul 22, 2010 19:32:25 GMT -5 David said:

I think a fan's need to buy physical music is the physical reasons. They want to be able to touch the booklet, the CD and know that they just supported their fave. Buying digital music, you just get music, you don't get an album. If that makes sense.

^
THIS.

I don't see CDs ever going completely obsolete unless some other physical medium comes along to surpass it. For the CD to go completely obsolete in the near future would result in the physical medium in general going completely obsolete, and that is not something I see happening, ever...maybe not until like the year 3000 or something. (Somewhere, way, way down the line at least.)

I think what would hasten the decline of the CD is not necessarily even advancements in technology, but rather future generations being more inclined to digital as they go from being teens to elders. That will do it faster than any technological upgrade could.

[neverduplicated]

Jul 22, 2010 19:32:25 GMT -5 David said:

I think a fan's need to buy physical music is the physical reasons. They want to be able to touch the booklet, the CD and know that they just supported their fave. Buying digital music, you just get music, you don't get an album. If that makes sense.

That's true for a lot of fans, but not all. I don't buy any physical CDs anymore, not even for my absolute favorites. I don't even have physical copies of Mariah's last two CDs because I just don't need them. I can look at pictures and read lyrics online all day if I want. I think the main thing keeping CDs around are the fact that people still have CD players, especially in their cars, and that some people just haven't gotten around to discovering digital.

[Honeymoon]

Maybe a USB format being introduced to the mainstream market? It would be new, interesting, and very user-friendly for music buyers and would further give a push to the digital age without taking the physical product out of the stores.

Anyway, the record execs need to think of something, I don't see the decline slowing down anytime soon, especially since now stores are stocking less.

[Honeymoon]

And they need to LOWER PRICES, a $9.99 and under album is so much more attractive than the usual 14.99 that many stores charge. And maybe we would see softer second week drops for new albums if they kept the price low instead of hiking up the price after the album's first week on the shelf.

[Deleted]

It is inevitable. I dont buy actual CDs in the store anymore and havent in over a year.

[asg4]

Maybe 2yrs back i was posting that cds will never die. But the writing is on the wall. Its only going to get worse with the generational gap. Digital will be the #1 music source. CDs will be dead in a few yrs.
There r 2 reasons it hasn't already happened. first the sound quality and most importantly ppl can easily lose all their music there has to be a way to retain ownership of what u have already paid for.
Google is deeply involved on a cloud based music solution which will let you to retain ownership. once u have paid for its urs for life.
CDs will be gone as your kodak film rolls.

[newpower99]

>>>CDs became the predominant format and cassettes really didn't go away until a few years ago<<

really? I swear I haven't seen a cassette in a store in 15 years. Or maybe i havent been looking.

[Joe1240]

Jul 22, 2010 19:32:25 GMT -5 David said:

I think a fan's need to buy physical music is the physical reasons. They want to be able to touch the booklet, the CD and know that they just supported their fave. Buying digital music, you just get music, you don't get an album. If that makes sense.

I agree on this. This is what will keep the CD to keep going.

[Deleted]

Jul 27, 2010 8:30:28 GMT -5 asg4 said:

Maybe 2yrs back i was posting that cds will never die. But the writing is on the wall. Its only going to get worse with the generational gap. Digital will be the #1 music source. CDs will be dead in a few yrs.
There r 2 reasons it hasn't already happened. first the sound quality and most importantly ppl can easily lose all their music there has to be a way to retain ownership of what u have already paid for.
Google is deeply involved on a cloud based music solution which will let you to retain ownership. once u have paid for its urs for life.
CDs will be gone as your kodak film rolls.

This will be true when the primary media played on the typical car stereo is no longer the CD

[tinawina]

It is becoming increasingly common to hook up your IPod to a car stereo. Newer cars certainly have that function. So I think that's just a matter of time. As the Ipod generation grows older, CDs will disappear from cars.

I also believe there is something to the "lesser audio quality" and "no way to back up lost music" ideas. I've heard that no back up reason before from people who buy CDs especially.