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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 13, 2013 22:50:48 GMT -5
USAToday.com:
Kanye West's 'Yeezus' could debut with 500K copies
Edna Gundersen, USA TODAY 9:55 p.m. EDT June 13, 2013
The half-million tally would place the rapper behind Justin Timberlake in the year's sales race
Kanye West's Yeezus, due Tuesday on Def Jam, is expected to sell 500,000 copies its first week.
"That's what industry forecasters suggest," says Keith Caulfield, Billboard's associate director of charts/retail. "It's difficult to a degree to predict an album's sales until it actually goes on sale, but the closer you to are to the release date, the better you can tell. It's like a weather forecast."
The half-million mark would put the rapper's sixth studio album in the same ballpark as previous releases. Watch the Throne, 2011's collaboration with Jay-Z, opened with 436,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan. West's two most recent solo albums enjoyed similar launches: 2010's My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy with 496,000, and 2008's 808s & Heartbreak with 450,000. Both were released during Thanksgiving week.
"They had a big holiday and Christmas to drive sales, and you don't have that now," Caulfield says, adding wryly, "Plus, he's missing the Father's Day window."
What may boost Yeezus is its air of secrecy and unconventional marketing. So far, the album has not leaked.
"Nobody knows what it sounds like," Caulfield says. "There's no single, no video, no formal promotional rollout. The album kind of drops out of the sky with some mystery and excitement that can drive interest."
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 14, 2013 1:09:26 GMT -5
500k? Seems a bit high as his previous album started with 496k and didn't really set the charts on fire after that.
I am thinking 350k myself but we'll see.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 14, 2013 8:25:20 GMT -5
Billboard also had an article on this- they should wait for the first day, really, as this album is being released under unusual circumstances (i.e. no radio-promoted singles, or even digital singles).
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Jun 14, 2013 9:17:21 GMT -5
USAToday.com: "It's difficult to a degree to predict an album's sales until it actually goes on sale, but the closer you to are to the release date, the better you can tell. It's like a weather forecast." Excuse you? As if you could get this many gays together to talk about the weather.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 9:20:07 GMT -5
So they think this will open higher than his last few albums without a single? I'm not sure if the lack of single has created enough mystery and hype to actually push this album to debut higher than his past few albums that had singles out. I wouldn't be absolutely shocked, but it's a very bold prediction. I would expect something more in the 400-450k range.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jun 14, 2013 9:47:36 GMT -5
Yeah 400k is where I expect this to start, but I wouldn't put it past him to trend higher.
I feel like NIP and the rest of the Throne project added some luster to him, but this "lack" of promo is an interesting addition to the equation. His last album came with universal praise from the critics in the 4th quarter and it couldn't cross 500k.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 14, 2013 9:56:07 GMT -5
The article references "industry forecasters." They also said Daft Punk would debut with 300-350k.
These forecasts are based on pre-orders with iTunes, Amazon, etc...
I'm inclined to believe them.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Jun 14, 2013 9:56:50 GMT -5
I can see this happening.
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on Jun 14, 2013 9:58:43 GMT -5
The article references "industry forecasters." They also said Daft Punk would debut with 300-350k. These forecasts are based on pre-orders with iTunes, Amazon, etc... I'm inclined to believe them. I thought it doesn't have pre-orders.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 14, 2013 10:05:12 GMT -5
^It doesn't???
PLUS, Billboard does not just throw numbers out there. They are very serious about their estimates.
I know Billboard is very jealous of HITS.
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Post by when the pawn... on Jun 14, 2013 10:05:36 GMT -5
I could see it happen but I was honestly thinking more like 250k. He's gotten a heaping of press this week but I do think no single makes it tough to scale half a million. But who knows, maybe hype will take off. I would love for Yeezus to be a (surprise?) sales monster.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 10:07:51 GMT -5
A better article
While Kanye West's new album "Yeezus" hasn't been released yet, sales forecasters in the music industry are buzzing about how much the set could sell in its first week. Those in the know suggest the album, due out June 18, may sell 500,000 copies in its first week. Readers might wonder: How do said forecasters come up with a projected sales figure–when the album isn't even on sale yet? Basically, these skilled sources make it their business to crunch numbers all day long. Sales forecasts, such as this one for "Yeezus," are based on early orders from retailers, first-week performance of comparable albums, media exposure, radio and YouTube trends for an album's first single, and so forth. These sources each have their own forecast model, so to speak, that helps generate sales projections. Sometimes, depending on how far out we are from an album's release, a forecast can be wildly different from the final outcome. In general, you can best guess an album's debut sales week once it's actually on sale. For example, on March 11, sources told Billboard that Justin Timberlake's "The 20/20 Experience" (not due out until March 19), might sell 500,000 in its debut week. Ultimately, that figure got much bigger, as the album performed stronger than anticipated. It finished with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200 chart, selling 968,000 copies in its first week, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Last month, on May 17, forecasters projected that Daft Punk's "Random Access Memories"–due out four days later–could sell between 250,000 and 300,000 in its first week. The album sold even better–moving 339,000 in its debut frame. West's last album, "Watch the Throne," was a collaborative effort with Jay-Z. That set debuted at No. 1 in 2011 with 436,000 copies sold in its first week–mostly from sales driven by an exclusive early deal with the iTunes Store. (The set was available exclusively through iTunes for its first four days of release, and then went wide to all digital and physical retailers after that.) West's last solo studio album, 2010's "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy," arrived during Thanksgiving week of that year, and debuted at No. 1 with 496,000 sold. Unlike both of those albums, West's new "Yeezus" wasn't preceded by a single aimed towards radio airplay. Shockingly, "Yeezus" has yet to leak (as of June 12). In comparison, another album due out the same day as "Yeezus," J. Cole's "Born Sinner," leaked to the Web on June 7. Cole quickly posted a stream of the album to his web site, along with a prompt to urge fans to pre-order the album via iTunes.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 14, 2013 10:27:13 GMT -5
^Link? Source?
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 14, 2013 10:44:14 GMT -5
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 14, 2013 14:33:28 GMT -5
www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/digital-and-mobile/1567037/kanye-west-mac-miller-j-cole-hip-hops-super-tuesdayKanye West, Mac Miller, J Cole: Hip-Hop's Super Tuesday By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles | June 14, 2013 Next week could be the biggest for new rap albums in two-and-a-half years. June 18 sees the release of three hip-hop sets that are all on course for sizable sales debuts: Kanye West's "Yeezus," J. Cole's "Born Sinner" and Mac Miller's "Watching Movies With the Sound Off." According to early sales forecasts from industry sources, "Yeezus" might sell 500,000 copies in its first week. Behind him will likely be "Born Sinner" with perhaps 150,000 to 200,000. "Watching Movies With the Sound Off" could sell as much as 100,000. If West and Cole both sell over 100,000 -- which seems a sure thing -- it will mark the first time two rap albums have debuted with more than 100,000 in the same week since November of 2010. That Thanksgiving, West's "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy" started with 496,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan, while Nicki Minaj's "Pink Friday" bowed with 375,000. The two albums started at Nos. 1 and 2 on the Billboard 200 chart, respectively. With Miller also in the June 18 mix, things get even more interesting. While a 100,000 start for his album isn't necessarily a lock, if it does more more than 100,000, that would give us three 100,000-plus rap debuts in a week. We haven't had that happen since way back in November of 2006. That Thanksgiving week saw the release of Jay-Z's "Kingdom Come" (680,000), Snoop Dogg's "Tha Blue Carpet Treatment" (264,000) and 2Pac's "Pac's Life" (159,000). West's album, which had been kept tightly under wraps, leaked to the Internet on June 14. Five days earlier, Miller's set went viral, while Cole's effort reached the Web on June 7. The leaks have been taken into account when projecting their first week sales. We'll have further updates on the sales forecast for West, Cole and Miller after their albums hit retail on June 18.
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Post by Kurt on Jun 14, 2013 14:57:03 GMT -5
I know Billboard is very jealous of HITS. Is this supposed to be the other way around? Otherwise, I seriously doubt that (though they do get a little testy when something isn't "Billboard-official" yet).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 15:01:35 GMT -5
I agree. I have seen enough references to the "bible" the last few years to know that
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 14, 2013 15:04:09 GMT -5
^Believe me, I know.
Billboard is very upset that HITS releases unofficial figures before they do. That's why Billboard has started releasing sales figures for big album late Tuesday nights.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 15:18:34 GMT -5
^Believe me, I know. Billboard is very upset that HITS releases unofficial figures before they do. That's why Billboard has started releasing sales figures for big album late Tuesday nights. That makes sense. I see regular comments like 'hope such-and-such remains the same when the official numbers come out' but I think most album chart watchers regard HITS estimates to be as reliable as BB's. Billboard may have the advantage of being considered the 'official' source for sales, but HITS' numbers are usually close enough to be considered an accurate estimate. And it's uncommon for HITS to have albums in different chart positions, especially in the top 10, where it matters most (notable exception being Barbra/Paramore back in 2009). It spoils the 'surprise' of Billboard's reveal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 15:25:57 GMT -5
That would suggest HITS is 'jealous' of Billboard and not the other way around
Such a statement appears to be pure speculation rather than fact.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 15:43:31 GMT -5
It might be only speculation, but I took the comment at face value.
HITS could be jealous that BB seems to get more industry respect, but BB could be jealous because it feels HITS 'steals' its thunder by releasing earlier estimates which are typically as accurate as BB's, thus lessening the value of the BB brand. I have always wondered why HITS never tried to start their own singles charts, b/c if they did they could truly give BB a run for their money. I don't doubt that BB knows this.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jun 14, 2013 15:45:31 GMT -5
HITS would pretty much just be another version of Cashbox if they tried to do a singles chart. I miss when HITS predicted digital single sales estimates on a weekly basis though.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 15, 2013 11:23:28 GMT -5
That would suggest HITS is 'jealous' of Billboard and not the other way around Such a statement appears to be pure speculation rather than fact. No, I know people who work at Billboard. When I bring up a HITS figure, they get snippy. HITS has always viewed Billboard as a rival. Remember all the snotty comments when they thought Billboard/SoundScan wasn't going to let the Eagles chart because it was only available at one retailer?
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jun 16, 2013 0:11:59 GMT -5
How does HiTS get their numbers?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 0:47:39 GMT -5
SPRΞΞ HITS uses store reports (i.e. a store manager, or I suppose an exec or VP for the larger retailers, will call or fax in the numbers). Both HITS and Billboard have to estimate a percentage (I forget the amount but I think it's in the 5-10% range) for indie record stores or online outlets that don't report to them.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 1:55:35 GMT -5
USAToday.com: "It's difficult to a degree to predict an album's sales until it actually goes on sale, but the closer you to are to the release date, the better you can tell. It's like a weather forecast." Excuse you? As if you could get this many gays together to talk about the weather. Check out the RT more often.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 16, 2013 6:10:41 GMT -5
News about baby girl (perfect timing) won't do any harm for the Kanye album, I'd say 500k is possible now.
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on2thenext1
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Post by on2thenext1 on Jun 16, 2013 7:29:49 GMT -5
So Kelly Rowland won't even do 100k? :(
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 16, 2013 12:07:54 GMT -5
Albums out Tuesday that are in the Sunday circulars:
Target:
Kelly Rowland $9.99 (Deluxe $14.99) Kanye West $9.99 Hunter Hayes re-release $9.99 Mac Miller $9.99 J. Cole $9.99 (Deluxe $14.99)
Best Buy:
Kanye West $9.99 Sublime $9.99 J. Cole $9.99 (Deluxe $13.99) Kelly Rowland $9.99 (Deluxe $14.99) Falling In Reverse $9.99 (Deluxe $11.99)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2013 16:50:44 GMT -5
So Kelly Rowland won't even do 100k? :( Probably not, but even if she was BB wouldn't have had reason to mention her in an article about "Hip-Hop's Super Tuesday." I'm hoping she'll do at least as well as Here I Am. That opened with 77k.
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