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Post by fe_lipeoliveira on Aug 21, 2013 9:53:06 GMT -5
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spoonabdul3
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Post by spoonabdul3 on Aug 21, 2013 10:04:54 GMT -5
Did Emmoulou Harris release something new this year? Shocked her name is on there. No Sheryl Crow? That's surprising. Im sure Kelly will make it this year again. Being listed first on the ballot doesn't hurt either :)
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Post by drummerman2009 on Aug 21, 2013 11:49:06 GMT -5
Let me see if I can give this a try.
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean Luke Bryan Blake Shelton (should win) Taylor Swift (will win) Carrie Underwood
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean Luke Bryan Brad Paisley Darius Rucker (should win) Blake Shelton (will win)
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson Miranda Lambert(will win) Kasey Musgraves (should win) Taylor Swift Carrie Underwood
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry (should and will win) Eli Young Band Lady Antebellum Little Big Town Zac Brown Band
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big and Rich Florida Georgia Line (will win) Love and Theft Montgomery Gentry Thompson Square (should win)
New Artist of the Year
Brett Eldredge Florida Georgia Line (will win) Randy Houser Kasey Musgraves (should win) Thomas Rhett
Will post Single and Song of the Year in a separate post because I don't know what the character limit is on here.
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sapphire
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Post by sapphire on Aug 21, 2013 12:01:01 GMT -5
^ Hunter Hayes already won last year for New Artist of the Year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 14:41:20 GMT -5
Hi, Kellie Pickler! Nice to see her in the second round. She won't clear it to the final 5, obviously, but it's nice to see her name there. Interesting to see no Sheryl Crow -- I thought for sure she'd be in deep consideration. So as of now, the nominees are looking to probably be Miranda, Taylor, Carrie, Kacey, and either Kelly or Jana. Martina and Reba are both still there, too, and we haven't had a Martina-less FVOTY category since the early 1990s.
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Post by drummerman2009 on Aug 21, 2013 14:55:23 GMT -5
Single of the Year
Cruise - Florida Georgia Line Downtown - Lady Antebellum Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain) - Gary Allen Merry Go Round - Kacey Musgraves Wagon Wheel - Darius Rucker(will and should win)
Song of the Year
Cruise - Florida Georgia Line Downtown - Lady Antebellum Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain) - Gary Allen (will win) I Drive Your Truck - Lee Brice Wagon Wheel - Darius Rucker (should win)
Event of the Year
Bourbon In Kentucky - Dierks Bentley and Kacey Musgraves Boys Round Here - Blake Shelton with Pistol Annies and Friends Don't Rush - Kelly Clarkson and Vince Gill Highway Don't Care - Tim McGraw and Taylor Swift (should and will win) The Only Way I Know - Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church
Album of the Year
Wheelhouse - Brad Paisley Night Train - Jason Aldean Same Trailer Different Park - Kasey Musgraves Set You Free - Gary Allen (should win) Red - Taylor Swift (will win)
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onebuffalo
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#LiteralLegender
I am One Buffalo.
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 21, 2013 16:43:35 GMT -5
Did Emmoulou Harris release something new this year? Shocked her name is on there. No Sheryl Crow? That's surprising. Im sure Kelly will make it this year again. Being listed first on the ballot doesn't hurt either :) Emmylou Harris released Old Yellow Moon this year with Rodney Crowell.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Aug 21, 2013 22:34:19 GMT -5
Boy I'd love to see the ballots for all the other categories as well!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 1:18:46 GMT -5
My predictions... Entertainer of the YearThis was pretty hard to narrow down to just 5, but ultimately I think there is a group of names that the voters can't ignore. My Nominations:Jason Aldean Luke Bryan Blake SheltonTaylor Swift Carrie Underwood Maybe Carrie would get snubbed again (from just being nominated) but she's had such a huge tour and massive success with her album. Taylor is, well, Taylor. Blake and Luke are locks and while Jason hasn't been quite as 'big' on radio, he's sold out Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, not to mention dozens of other arenas/stadiums. Even with this list of 5, that leaves out a lot of other big names. Honorable mention goes to Keith Urban, Eric Church, Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, Miranda Lambert, Lady Antebellum, Tim McGraw, George Strait, and the Zac Brown Band. I think that, possibly by the ACM's in the spring, Urban will be a front-runner again thanks to a full tour plus American Idol and new music. I have a feeling his PR people will try to compare his resume to Blake's, which may allow KU to get on the ballot a couple more times in the EOTY category before he starts getting less popular (which should be several years away yet). I just don't think Keith released his new music in time to help for the CMA's, and his tour only started last month. He was quiet for much of the year. Eric had a lot of success leading into the year but I don't think his momentum is quite as high anymore. Kenny is the king of touring but I don't think it'll be enough. Brad, Miranda, and the ZBB have had nice years but not the biggest. Lady A isn't quite as popular as they were 2 years ago and really only has 1 big hit (Downtown) on their resume, plus a decent tour, but it wasn't among the biggest. Tim has had a radio revival thanks to new music and a new contract with Big Machine but I don't think he'll return to the EOTY category. I give George honorable mention only because of his massive farewell tour. Perhaps he'll have an even better chance of one final EOTY nomination at either the 2014 ACM's or CMA's. Ultimately, I'd say either Blake or Luke wins the trophy. Blake won it last year but Luke took over at the ACM's. Still, the CMA's might want to set themselves apart from the ACM's a bit and have Blake get another trophy. Luke has had huge album sales but Crash My Party was released after the eligibility cut-off date, whereas all of Blake's Based On A True Story era fits in with the time frame. Even so, the voters may go with Luke's current momentum, despite it coming in August and not in the eligible time frame. Basically, I think it's a toss up between Blake and Luke. Male Vocalist of the YearThis is probably even tougher than the EOTY category. Basically you'll still have Jason, Luke, and Blake in there for sure, and that takes up 3 spots. Then you still have all those other big names that I gave honorable mention to above (in the EOTY category), plus guys like Jake Owen, Dierks Bentley, Darius Rucker, Hunter Hayes, and Lee Brice who could obviously each make a much more serious run at a Male Vocalist nomination instead of an EOTY one. Can't forget George, Brad, Kenny, or Tim either. I feel like Eric will probably be the 4th one and I went with Keith as the 5th guy, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was Hunter instead, or maybe Kenny. Nominations:Jason Aldean Luke BryanEric Church Blake SheltonKeith Urban I'll say that either Blake or Luke will win this one too...my guess is that one guy takes home EOTY and the other gets MV. Female Vocalist of the YearUnfortunately, it isn't too difficult to figure out who will get nominated for this category. I'm completely confident that the first 4 spots will go to Carrie Underwood, Miranda Lambert, Taylor Swift, and Kacey Musgraves. Carrie, Miranda, and Taylor have obviously been the "big 3" for a couple of years now, and while Kacey hasn't had nearly as much radio success (yet), she's got immense critical acclaim and a hit song that still managed to go top 10 despite going against the grain in regards to the vast majority of what fills up today's radio playlists. But let's look on the bright side: at least there's a bit of a discussion as to who will fill up the 5th spot, rather than "it'll be Carrie, Miranda, and Taylor again, with a token nomination for Reba, Martina, Lee Ann Womack, etc". So I feel like we've got 4 locks this year, and a handful of ladies in the running for the 5th spot. Sheryl Crow apparently isn't in the 2nd round, which is a little surprising, but then again, "Easy" didn't impact radio until the spring and it might just be a bit too early to measure how interested in she actually is regarding the country genre. Neither Cassadee Pope nor Danielle Bradbery released music in time. As for the ladies in consideration, Faith Hill's latest comeback attempt flared out quickly, Reba had a TV show but no new music, Sara Evans was in between albums, LeAnn Rimes released a favorably-reviewed album but got next to no radio airplay and she's also not the most popular person when it comes to public image...Martina isn't really on a label, and Kelly Clarkson is semi-country at best. The last 4 names are Ashley Monroe, Jana Kramer, Kellie Pickler, and Maggie Rose. Ashley has the critical acclaim as well but no radio airplay. The same could basically be said for Kellie Pickler--she at least got minor airplay and had Dancing With The Stars to help her out. Maggie Rose has had a pair of top 30 hits and Jana Kramer had the biggest hit of the bunch. I feel like it'll come down to Jana Kramer and Kelly Clarkson for the final spot and I'm torn on who to pick. Kramer had a big hit, but after all, it was the CMA that nominated Clarkson for FV last year, so why not again? I'll go with Kramer by a hair, though. Nominations:Jana Kramer Miranda Lambert Kacey Musgraves Taylor Swift Carrie UnderwoodI'll say Carrie wins. She's had a huge year. Ok, that's been said time and time again through the years but man, I really think this is her best chance yet. Obviously Miranda is far and away her main competition but I'll also give Kacey Musgraves the label of 'darkhorse' contender, mainly because she's such a promising and intriguing new artist. An 88 on Metacritic for Same Trailer, Different Park certainly won't hurt, either. Vocal Duo of the YearIt's not too hard to predict the nominees here, since there aren't too many duos. I can come up with 8 duos who have a chance to get nominated: Sugarland, Love And Theft, Big & Rich, Florida Georgia Line, Thompson Square, Montgomery Gentry, the LoCash Cowboys, and The Civil Wars. Sugarland has made it clear that they are on a hiatus, with both members now embarking on solo careers, so I think this will finally be the year when Sugarland doesn't get its token nomination. Love And Theft has lost momentum lately, but had a big hit with "Angel Eyes" last year and they are on Sony Nashville, so they'll get a spot. Big & Rich's comeback flared out quickly too but they did enough (and they are on Warner Bros.) to get nominated. Reigning Duo winner Thompson Square had another big hit, so they'll be the 3rd nomination. Florid Georgia Line obviously will get nominated for the 4th spot, and that leaves one more spot. I'll go with Montgomery Gentry, since they are more of a recognizable name than the LoCash Cowboys are (and both duos are on Average Joe's as well so the label would likely support MG). The Civil Wars have a chance but a) they're not really country and b) the duo members are not speaking to each other, which has to hurt their chances of being nominated, despite the industry nominating them in the past. Nominations:Big & Rich Florida Georgia LineLove And Theft Montgomery Gentry Thompson Square A lot of critics and many traditional fans think that FGL's style of music is a big factor when it comes to what's wrong with today's country radio. But despite the backlash and negative reviews, the duo has tapped into a huge base of fans, and I don't think the voters can ignore their commercial success and now-Platinum album, plus 3 smash hits. Florida Georgia Line wins this. Vocal Group of the YearA little tougher than the Duo category, but there are still a few obvious front-runners here. Lady Antebellum, Little Big Town, The Band Perry, and the Zac Brown Band will all obviously be nominated. I think the last spot will likely go to either Rascal Flatts, Gloriana, Pistol Annies, Eli Young Band, or The Henningsens. The Eli Young Band had "Even If It Breaks Your Heart" peaking in July last year, but were otherwise largely in between albums. The Henningsens had a top 20 hit and do have Sony Nashville backing them as well. Gloriana had one big hit and another decent-sized hit, plus they have Warner Music Nashville for a label, so we'll have to see if WMN really pushes for them to get in that 5th spot. Sony also has the Pistol Annies which are loved by critics, but don't get radio airplay and they also seem to be in a weird, sort of 'non-speaking' situation right now, at least as band members. Rascal Flatts is a big name but they've mostly been in between albums too. Still, they've had a big tour. I'll say the 5th spot is primarily between Rascal Flatts and Gloriana this year, and I'll actually give the edge to RF. Gloriana still hasn't quite gotten to that top level. Nominations:Lady Antebellum Little Big TownRascal Flatts The Band Perry Zac Brown Band Now, the winner. This could actually be tough. ZBB's album sales and radio momentum are both down a bit compared to the past few years...but still, "Goodbye In Her Eyes" was a 3-week monster hit at radio, and Uncaged won a Grammy. This isn't the Grammy's but the voters will take note of that. However, working against the ZBB is that they are on Zac's own small, independent label. Lady A's momentum is also down a bit--"Downtown" is their only big hit during the eligibility period, but the album still sold fairly well and they did tour before Hillary had her baby. I do think both Lady A and the ZBB have a chance but I think this comes down to a showdown between LBT and TBP. Don't forget that Little Big Town's "Pontoon" didn't peak until September of last year, and "Tornado" was a big hit too. "Your Side Of The Bed" just stalled but it was nonetheless applauded by critics, and their album has sold 1 million copies since its release nearly a year ago. All of that fits in the time frame. The Band Perry released an album earlier this year and has had 2 big hits so far, but I don't think it's quite enough to knock Little Big Town off the throne yet. The wildcard here could be what UMG's plan is. Both Lady A and LBT are UMG artists, and that is the biggest label by far. Lady A's album is newer so the label could decide to push them harder, which might allow Big Machine/Republic and The Band Perry to nab the trophy. I'll stick with my guess of LBT, though. Song of the YearSong and Single are tough categories, as there are a lot of songs released in the year. I won't go into detail here, but I'll just list my nominations 1) "Blown Away" - recorded by Carrie Underwood, written by Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins 2) "I Drive Your Truck" - recorded by Lee Brice, written by Jimmy Yeary, Jessi Alexander, and Connie Harrington 3) "Merry Go 'Round" - recorded by Kacey Musgraves, written by Kacey Musgraves, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally 4) "Mama's Broken Heart" - recorded by Miranda Lambert, written by Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally, and Brandy Clark 5) "Wagon Wheel" - recorded by Darius Rucker, written by Bob Dylan and Jay "Ketch" Secor Honorable Mention: Gary Allan's "Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)", Kip Moore's "Hey Pretty Girl", Little Big Town's "Tornado", Taylor Swift's "Begin Again", The Band Perry's "Better Dig Two", and Zac Brown Band's "Goodbye In Her Eyes". I really don't think I can pick a winner at this point. Single of the YearSometimes the Single and Song nominees are way too similar but I think (or maybe it's just wishful thinking) and hope that this year, not too many songs will be 'double' nominees. I do think there are a few that are worthy, but I am thinking that some of the biggest hits might get nominated for Single, but the more critically-acclaimed ones will get Song, and I think that's how it should be. Ultimately I don't think the industry can ignore the massive cross-over success of "Cruise", at least for Single of the Year (I sure hope it's not nominated for Song, though, which is usually based on songwriting merits). "Wanted" was another big cross-over hit. I think "Highway Don't Care" has a great shot and I really do think "Wagon Wheel" will get some love. Finally, I'll give a nomination to George. I have a feeling that MCA and George's PR people might really play up the 60 #1's thing one more time...I doubt it gets him a nomination for Song of the Year, but I do think he might sneak into the Single category. Here are my picks for frontrunners: 1) "Cruise" by Florida Georgia Line 2) "Give It All We Got Tonight" by George Strait 3) "Highway Don't Care" by Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban 4) "Wagon Wheel" by Darius Rucker 5) "Wanted" by Hunter Hayes Honorable Mention: Carrie Underwood's "Blown Away", Miranda Lambert's "Mama's Broken Heart", Luke Bryan's "Crash My Party", and Randy Houser's "Runnin' Outta Moonlight", in addition to several of the songs I listed for honorable mention for Song of the Year. I don't think I can pick a winner here yet, either. Album of the YearAlways a fun category, I think. I'll just go ahead and list my 5 frontrunners: 1) Blown Away by Carrie Underwood 2) Hunter Hayes by Hunter Hayes 3) Same Trailer, Different Park by Kacey Musgraves4) Tornado by Little Big Town 5) Uncaged by Zac Brown Band Honorable Mention: Taylor Swift's " Red", Lady Antebellum's " Golden", Jason Aldean's " Night Train", The Band Perry's " Pioneer", Tim McGraw's " Two Lanes Of Freedom", Blake Shelton's " Based On A True Story...", and George Strait's " Love Is Everything". I'll give the edge to Kacey and say that the industry recognizes her album here, but I guess I won't be surprised if my wishes don't come true. The other 4 albums are all solid as well and I really think any of them has a pretty good chance to win here. New Artist of the YearNot gonna discuss much here. I came up with 5 artists that I think are obvious front-runners, and I'll list a couple honorable mentions as well. My picks: 1) Lee Brice 2) Florida Georgia Line 3) Brantley Gilbert 4) Kip Moore5) Kacey Musgraves Honorable Mention: Jana Kramer, Scotty McCreery, Gloriana, Easton Corbin, Love And Theft, Dustin Lynch, and Maggie Rose Really a wide range of artists here. Florida Georgia Line would win based off commercial success, Kacey would win based off critical acclaim. Brantley's already very popular and both Lee and Kip have had a nice string of hits now. I think this award might depend on some of the others. Perhaps if FGL wins Duo (and I'm sure they will), they might go with Kacey here. But then again, her album--while a decent seller--hasn't sold nearly what the others here have sold. Also, Kacey might have a chance at Album and if she pulls that off, I'd think Kip or Lee could enter into the conversation for New Artist. I'm gonna pick Kip, even though he's a bit of a darkhorse here. I'm pretty confident that he'll at least get nominated but winning it is a different thing entirely. Musical Event of the YearPretty simple category. I think there are 3 obvious front-runners, with several other choices as well. The 3 obvious ones were bigger radio hits: "Don't Rush", "The Only Way I Know", and "Highway Don't Care". I'm not entirely sure if they'll go for "Boys 'Round Here" but we'll see. My picks: 1) "Boys 'Round Here" - Blake Shelton featuring the Pistol Annies & Friends 2) "Don't Rush" - Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill 3) "Highway Don't Care" - Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban4) "Summer Jam" - Jake Owen featuring Florida Georgia Line 5) "The Only Way I Know" - Jason Aldean featuring Luke Bryan and Eric Church Honorable Mention: Brad Paisley's "Outstanding In Our Field", featuring Dierks Bentley, Roger Miller, and Hunter Hayes; Zac Brown Band's "Day That I Die" featuring Amos Lee; Kenny Chesney's "Spread The Love" featuring The Wailers with Elan; and possibly Florida Georgia Line's "Cruise" featuring Nelly, although I don't think they'll go for this. Maybe some of the duets from Hunter Hayes Encore could get consideration too, even though they came out in the last month of eligibility. "Highway Don't Care" wins this one, though. * 3. New artists also include Lee Brice and Thompson Square. Lee should almost certainly get nominated. T2 probably. Houser is ineligible (working off his 3rd album). Maybe Easton Corbin to replace him? I'd also peg Rhett a few spots higher considering he has had three singles with solid success while the others have failed to get follow ups or even their first to move far up the charts. A correction to your correction. Thompson Square cannot be nominated for New Artist, as they have won a CMA Award. The basic rules for New Artist eligibility state that an artist cannot be nominated more than twice, can have at most 2 albums out, AND they are ineligible if they've won any other CMA Award. Thompson Square picked up their first CMA Award last year, of course winning Duo of the Year. Even though they are only on album #2, they can't be nominated for new artist. Lee Brice most likely will be nominated, though. Vocal Duo of the Year Big and Rich Florida Georgia Line (should and will win by landslide because of the others not having done much) Love and Theft Montgomery Gentry Sugarland Now here's something that Thompson Square will be nominated for. They might not be the front-runner to win Duo this year, but they are the reigning winner in this category and they definitely will be nominated again this year.
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on Aug 22, 2013 5:05:45 GMT -5
In Musical Event, would there be any chance that John Fogerty & Keith Urban's duet, ALMOST SATURDAY NIGHT off of John's Album, Wrote a Song For Everyone could possibly warrant a nomination??? I love this song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 10:34:50 GMT -5
In Musical Event, would there be any chance that John Fogerty & Keith Urban's duet, ALMOST SATURDAY NIGHT off of John's Album, Wrote a Song For Everyone could possibly warrant a nomination??? I love this song. It's always possible. There always seems to be at least one random and unexpected nominee in this category every year. However, this one is kind of packed tightly this year with big names. Also, in response to jhomes87 prediction post involving this category, I think she's got the category nailed down except for one: the "Cruise" remix. It's being submitted according to the FGL FYC ad and made the second round of voting. Even though it's terrible, it may make it in. However, I still see "Highway Don't Care" winning this one handily.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 22, 2013 11:02:05 GMT -5
Also, in response to jhomes87 prediction post involving this category, I think she's got the category nailed down except for one: the "Cruise" remix. It's being submitted according to the FGL FYC ad and made the second round of voting. Although it's quite possible that the "Cruise" remix did make the second round of voting, we can't assume that based on the For Your Consideration ads. The For Your Consideration ads were made and made available before the second round ballot was released. How do we know? The second round ballots were e-mailed out at 1 PM Eastern (noon Central), 20 August. The FYC ad links were posted here at Pulse on Tuesday morning, and presumably existed before that. So the ads were made without knowledge of who had made the second round of voting in which categories -- the makers of the ads were simply making educated and perhaps aspirational guesses. As jlatn5b pointed out, Hunter's FYC ad was made without the knowledge that, in fact, he had not made it into the second round of voting in the Entertainer category.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 11:49:03 GMT -5
I was under the assumption that the ads were made after the first round of voting ended and before the second round began.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Aug 22, 2013 15:01:03 GMT -5
Here are my predictions. I'm usually not great at this, but whatever.
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean Luke Bryan Kenny Chesney Blake Shelton Taylor Swift
Very tough category. I initially had Carrie Underwood in there, but I think she'll come up just a little short. Kenny's announcement that he's taking next year off from touring makes me think that he'll secure himself the fifth slot. I could see voters possibly not nominating Taylor, but I think she'll get in. I could maybe see Tim McGraw getting a nomination, but I'm not sure who I'd take out to put him in.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean Luke Bryan Hunter Hayes Tim McGraw Blake Shelton
Another tough one. Eric Church, Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley and Keith Urban also stand a good chance of making it in, but I think Hunter will be the 'surprise' nomination that knocks Eric and Brad out this year.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson Miranda Lambert Kacey Musgraves Taylor Swift Carrie Underwood
Like 14887fan said, I'm pretty shocked that Sheryl Crow isn't on the second ballot. I would have put her at #6, so surprising to see she isn't on it. I would be surprised if anyone other than these 5 get nominated.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry Lady Antebellum Little Big Town Pistol Annies Zac Brown Band
This is probably the ZBB's best chance at a win, but I think it'll come down to TBP and Lady A.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich Florida Georgia Line Love & Theft Sugarland Thompson Square
New Artist of the Year
Randy Houser Florida Georgia Line Kip Moore Kacey Musgraves Thomas Rhett
Single of the Year
"Cruise" - Florida Georgia Line "Highway Don't Care" - Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift & Keith Urban "Mama's Broken Heart" - Miranda Lambert "Wagon Wheel" - Darius Rucker "Wanted" - Hunter Hayes
Song of the Year
"Beer With Jesus" - Thomas Rhett "Highway Don't Care" - Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift & Keith Urban "Mama's Broken Heart" - Miranda Lambert "Merry Go Round" - Kacey Musgraves "Wanted" - Hunter Hayes
Album of the Year
Blown Away - Carrie Underwood Hunter Hayes - Hunter Hayes Night Train - Jason Aldean Red - Taylor Swift Same Trailer, Different Park - Kacey Musgraves
This was a tough category, too. The Band Perry, Lady Antebellum, Zac Brown Band, Blake Shelton, Little Big Town and Tim McGraw all could be in here, too.
Event of the Year
"Boys Round Here" - Blake Shelton & Pistol Annies "Cruise" - Florida Georgia Line & Nelly "Don't Rush" - Kelly Clarkson & Vince Gill "Highway Don't Care" - Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift & Keith Urban "The Only Way I Know" - Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan & Eric Church
I initially had "Summer Jam" in here, but I totally forgot about TOWIK. Maybe SJ will be in instead of "Cruise".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 15:38:12 GMT -5
Mid-week BCU includes lists of the top titles and artists amongst the competition for nominations. These lists were all compiled based on the biggest success during this year's eligibility period (July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013). I'm a tad bit confused at how "Blown Away" isn't even in the Top 25 Country Airplay titles...?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 15:59:32 GMT -5
Mid-week BCU includes lists of the top titles and artists amongst the competition for nominations. These lists were all compiled based on the biggest success during this year's eligibility period (July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013). I'm a tad bit confused at how "Blown Away" isn't even in the Top 25 Country Airplay titles...? Well, it's like a year-end Billboard chart for the CMA eligibility period rather than the usual chart year. The list does surprise me a little bit, but I'm not too surprised that Carrie isn't on there. BA had a pretty quick run up the chart--most of those other titles took a longer time to peak.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 16:29:45 GMT -5
Mid-week BCU includes lists of the top titles and artists amongst the competition for nominations. These lists were all compiled based on the biggest success during this year's eligibility period (July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013). I'm a tad bit confused at how "Blown Away" isn't even in the Top 25 Country Airplay titles...? Well, it's like a year-end Billboard chart for the CMA eligibility period rather than the usual chart year. The list does surprise me a little bit, but I'm not too surprised that Carrie isn't on there. BA had a pretty quick run up the chart--most of those other titles took a longer time to peak. I just don't get how it's not even in the Top 25 after being a multi-week #1 and having lots of recurrent airplay. Hm. Oh, well. Hope that doesn't hurt the song's chances, not that I had much faith the song would receive any love anyways. The more I look at things, the more I see EOTY panning out to be: Luke Bryan Kenny Chesney Tim McGraw Blake Shelton Taylor Swift
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 22, 2013 16:47:22 GMT -5
I was under the assumption that the ads were made after the first round of voting ended and before the second round began. Right. I'm not sure if we're getting our wires crossed here, but the point I was trying to make is that the second round voting options were not made known prior to the second round ballot being e-mailed out. Artists and their teams wouldn't have known exactly the categories in which the artist was still in the running when the ads were made. That's why Hunter's ad still mentioned Entertainer.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2013 17:01:27 GMT -5
I was under the assumption that the ads were made after the first round of voting ended and before the second round began. Right. I'm not sure if we're getting our wires crossed here, but the point I was trying to make is that the second round voting options were not made known prior to the second round ballot being e-mailed out. Artists and their teams wouldn't have known exactly the categories in which the artist was still in the running when the ads were made. That's why Hunter's ad still mentioned Entertainer. Ah, understood. I wouldn't put it past the CMAs to nominate Hayes for EOTY, even though it'd be ludicrous, so we'll have to wait and see. The most competitive category this year will probably be Male Vocalist of the Year since there really isn't a front-runner at all. Once we see the EOTY nominees, we'll probably be able to determine the clear heads of the pack, we all already basically know the FVOTY nominees, Group will come between Lady A, Little B, and TBP, and Duo is a total crapshoot (literally, since we all know that FGL will win).
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slowmo
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Post by slowmo on Aug 22, 2013 17:20:18 GMT -5
For the FVOTY category, I think just about everyone is in agreement on 4 of the 5 with Jana and Kelly fighting it out for the 5th spot. I think we all know that voting isn't strictly based on merit and outside factors often times come into play. With that said, and I'm not saying this is right or even the case, but do you think the Jana/Brantley breakup will factor into the voting at all?
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jlatn5b
New Member
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 353
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Post by jlatn5b on Aug 22, 2013 21:47:49 GMT -5
I'm surprised to see all the expected nominations for Tim McGraw. He's been so ignored by major award shows for so long. I don't know if just because he's off of Curb and under the Borchetta machine, that he'll start being nominated for things like Male Vocalist and Entertainer again. Although I guess I shouldn't underestimate Borchetta. I just think Tim will continue to be shut out, with the exception of "Highway Don't Care".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2013 0:12:12 GMT -5
Well, it's like a year-end Billboard chart for the CMA eligibility period rather than the usual chart year. The list does surprise me a little bit, but I'm not too surprised that Carrie isn't on there. BA had a pretty quick run up the chart--most of those other titles took a longer time to peak. I just don't get how it's not even in the Top 25 after being a multi-week #1 and having lots of recurrent airplay. Hm. Oh, well. Hope that doesn't hurt the song's chances, not that I had much faith the song would receive any love anyways. Billboard doesn't include recurrent airplay when they rank the top airplay titles. If they did, then I'd bet BA would be somewhere in the 15-20 range. As it stands, even without recurrent airplay, I wouldn't be surprised if it was at #26 or #27. Anyway, I highly doubt the lists that BB published will have much (if any) of an effect on the voters' decisions. They already know which songs were the most 'impactful' songs, and they all know that ranking titles by airplay-only doesn't necessarily indicate which were the biggest hits. Who thinks Justin Moore's "'Til My Last Day" was the biggest hit of the past 12 months? It had the most cumulative airplay, and that's what these lists show, but I don't think you'd fine many people saying it was the biggest hit. In terms of cumulative airplay, sure, but that's not really how 'biggest hit' is defined. Those airplay lists are skewed in favor of the long-charting songs. Years ago when songs still spent 4-6 weeks at #1, they were better represented on the year-end lists (and I know the one being discussed isn't a year-end list but it IS a 12-month list), but now it's a struggle for any song to spend 3+ weeks at #1. The big names go up fast and don't stay at the top nearly as long, because the charts and radio just don't work that way anymore. They're itching to move on to the next single already. I'm surprised to see all the expected nominations for Tim McGraw. He's been so ignored by major award shows for so long. I don't know if just because he's off of Curb and under the Borchetta machine, that he'll start being nominated for things like Male Vocalist and Entertainer again. Although I guess I shouldn't underestimate Borchetta. I just think Tim will continue to be shut out, with the exception of "Highway Don't Care". I was going to post something similar. I really don't see Tim getting a ton of love, though I would love it if he did. Basically I see HDC getting 1-2 deserved nominations but beyond that I would be a bit surprised if Tim suddenly got back into the Male & Entertainer categories. Those spots are basically reserved for artists at their career peaks, and while Tim has had a huge revival at radio, he'll never be as big as he was during the Live Like You Were Dying era. That's the way it goes with everyone. Again, I think Tim has done more than enough to at least get back into the Male Vocalist category but I think he's quite the underdog.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 23, 2013 8:17:15 GMT -5
I just don't get how it's not even in the Top 25 after being a multi-week #1 and having lots of recurrent airplay. Hm. Oh, well. Hope that doesn't hurt the song's chances, not that I had much faith the song would receive any love anyways. Billboard doesn't include recurrent airplay when they rank the top airplay titles. If they did, then I'd bet BA would be somewhere in the 15-20 range. As it stands, even without recurrent airplay, I wouldn't be surprised if it was at #26 or #27. Anyway, I highly doubt the lists that BB published will have much (if any) of an effect on the voters' decisions. They already know which songs were the most 'impactful' songs, and they all know that ranking titles by airplay-only doesn't necessarily indicate which were the biggest hits. Who thinks Justin Moore's "'Til My Last Day" was the biggest hit of the past 12 months? It had the most cumulative airplay, and that's what these lists show, but I don't think you'd fine many people saying it was the biggest hit. In terms of cumulative airplay, sure, but that's not really how 'biggest hit' is defined. Those airplay lists are skewed in favor of the long-charting songs. Years ago when songs still spent 4-6 weeks at #1, they were better represented on the year-end lists (and I know the one being discussed isn't a year-end list but it IS a 12-month list), but now it's a struggle for any song to spend 3+ weeks at #1. The big names go up fast and don't stay at the top nearly as long, because the charts and radio just don't work that way anymore. They're itching to move on to the next single already. Exactly. Notice that neither Jason Aldean nor Blake Shelton has a title in the top-25, either. They move faster up the charts these days than Carrie does, and they, too, clearly had bigger hits during the eligibility period than those on the list. Looking at Billboard's Top Country Airplay titles chart (which really doesn't look reflective of the eligibility period's true biggest hits; even among charting titles, I can't imagine anyone really believing that "Fastest Girl in Town" was a bigger hit than "Mama's Broken Heart"), it really missed an opportunity to tabulate and post a parallel "Top Country Songs" chart. That would have been silly for other reasons ("Cruise" and "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" would have been #1 and #2), but Billboard would have been able to make a semi-convincing argument that Top Country Songs chart was more reflective of the eligibility period's biggest hits. In any event, I agree that voters in general aren't likely to pay much attention to these charts. Or any charts, really. Any numbers they do look at will be filtered through confirmation bias (i.e., voters are only likely to pay attention to numbers that confirm their pre-existing impressions, not ones that contradict them). During this period, practically every contender is campaigning based on gaudy numbers and new records set, and I think it all ends up seeming like a meaningless blob. I think it's difficult to shift existing biases without all-out, inescapable campaigns -- I think Luke's team is preparing one to unseat Blake as Male Vocalist and Entertainer once nominations are announced, Hunter's team is likely preparing one to make sure he makes his first appearance among the Male Vocalist nominations, and I think Carrie may need one to factor in a category like Entertainer that has eluded her in the past despite objective indicators being in her favor. For the FVOTY category, I think just about everyone is in agreement on 4 of the 5 with Jana and Kelly fighting it out for the 5th spot. I think we all know that voting isn't strictly based on merit and outside factors often times come into play. With that said, and I'm not saying this is right or even the case, but do you think the Jana/Brantley breakup will factor into the voting at all? Well, it'll be a test of Warner's strength, at any rate. If the split gets ugly during this voting round (doesn't appear that it will), then it will almost certainly hurt her. I don't think Brantley's label (Valory) was ever going to try to block vote her in, but perhaps the rest of his team would have supported her, and she has likely lost that now. That last slot in the Female Vocalist category is really irrelevant, in any event. Even if Jana somehow snags a nomination, I don't think she will be invited to perform at the show, whereas I'm sure Kelly Clarkson will be welcome to perform at the show regardless of whether she is nominated (and in this case, she is virtually guaranteed a nomination for Vocal Event, anyway).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2013 22:45:16 GMT -5
For the FVOTY category, I think just about everyone is in agreement on 4 of the 5 with Jana and Kelly fighting it out for the 5th spot. I think we all know that voting isn't strictly based on merit and outside factors often times come into play. With that said, and I'm not saying this is right or even the case, but do you think the Jana/Brantley breakup will factor into the voting at all? Nah, because if the publicity from the breakup could factor to help Jana's case, then so could the publicity of Kelly's engagement and upcoming elopement. That stuff shouldn't be factored in, anyways, but this is the CMAs that we're talking about and it's too difficult to distinguish exactly what they base their nominations off of anymore.
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Post by countryfan4life on Aug 24, 2013 12:50:01 GMT -5
Hi new here! First I want to state how happy am that Brad and Carrie are back hosting! Little Big Town (on CMA Music Fest) totally had me thinking there were new hosts, especially after reading on here that Carrie might not be able to because of The Sound Of Music.
Here's my thoughts on the nominations:
Entertainer of the Year: Like most of you have said, Jason, Blake, and Luke will get the first 3 spots. Jason had a successful album and a tour that broke records; Blake has a new album, successful tour, The Voice success, and won this last year; and Luke, well no one is hotter than him right now (I mean that career wise), his tour is selling out like crazy, Farm Tour, and Tailgates and Tanlines sold really well. As for Carrie I wouldn't say she's a lock because she's always left out of this category, but based on her tour, album, DVD, The Sound Of Music, and she is co hosting the show so she has a chance. Kenny is the king of touring and based on that alone he always has a shot. Also I wouldn't count out Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, Keith Urban, or Brad Paisley. I'm hoping there is at least one girl in this category and the only ones I see are Carrie and Taylor. To me Carrie has been a better representation and has promoted country more so than Taylor, who in my opinion has pretty much crossed over to pop. Same might be said of Carrie, but I guess it all depends on what's country to you, but that's a whole different discussion.
My Final 5 (probably won't see because Taylor will probably be in there and Kenny has been left out before): Jason Aldean Blake Shelton Luke Bryan Carrie Underwood Kenny Chesney
Blake or Luke winning. They are pretty much even, but Blake might have the edge because of The Voice, but Luke's has the bigger tour and they might take his recent success into consideration, so who knows. Like some have said they might not want to repeat the ACMs, but they did it with Kenny and I'm pretty sure with Taylor at least once, so we might see it happen with Luke. I would say Jason too, but his negative press could factor in.
Male Vocalist of the Year: There's a lot of ways this can go, but I'm pretty sure Jason, Luke, and Blake are pretty much guaranteed in this category, with Eric Church likely being the 4th. The 5th spot could really be anybody. Kenny Chesney, Keith Urban, Brad Paisley, Dierks Bentley, Tim McGraw, or even Hunter Hayes all have a chance. This may be a long shot but I wouldn't mind seeing Randy Houser in this category. I just bought his album and I've seen him live and he has awesome voice, probably better than some of the guys I listed.
My Final 5: Jason Aldean Blake Shelton Luke Bryan Eric Church Hunter Hayes
Again this will probably go to Blake or Luke, but this time I think Luke has more of an edge. To me he has one of the best voices, not only in the category, but in country music today. Plus all the success he's had. Then again the CMAs do strange things sometimes.
Female Vocalist: Carrie, Miranda, and Taylor I would say are guaranteed, and more than likely Kacey Musgraves. As for the 5th, Kelly Clarkson was there last year, which I still can't figure out, so it wouldn't surprise me if she was there again. Jana Kramer and Ashley Monroe could be contenders. Kellie Pickler could sneak in there due to all the Dancing With The Stars buzz, but she doesn't have the radio success. There's always Martina McBride, but she hasn't had anything new in while so she might not be there this year. Overall I too think that more female artists need to be given a chance. Don't get me wrong I love the guys and I have seen more concerts and bought more albums from the them, but I want to see a little more girl power.
My Final 5: Carrie Underwood Miranda Lambert Taylor Swift Kacey Musgraves Kellie Pickler (hey you never know)
This will be between Miranda or Carrie. Based on success this year and vocals overall Carrie should and could win it. She's had an awesome year, but I also don't want to get my hopes up.
Vocal Group: This one is pretty easy. Little Big Town, Lady Antebellum, The Band Perry, and Zac Brown Band are pretty much guaranteed a nomination. The only bands I see filling in the 5th spot would be Rascal Flatts or Eli Young Band. On a side note, how much pull do record labels really have with award shows? I'm asking this because it seems a lot of people on here say that Big Machine has a lot, but then you have Rascal Flatts who has been on that label for the past 2 or 3 years, and they don't even get nominated for that award anymore. I'm just a little confused. Maybe they are focusing more on The Band Perry?
My Final 5: Little Big Town Lady Antebellum The Band Perry Zac Brown Band Rascal Flatts
I see this being between Little Big Town and The Band Perry with the edge going to LBT (sorry Rascal Flatts). I wouldn't be surprised if it was TBP and part of me wants to give them the edge, but I still think LBT has another year with this award.
Vocal Duo: It's sad I can barley think of 5 duos for this category. I know Thompson Square, Florida Georgia Line, and Love and Theft are in. Other then them I honestly don't know. I haven't heard much with Big and Rich or Montgomery Gentry, but they are at least still active duos as far as I know. I think this category needs more help than Female Vocalist. I think Love and Theft especially, and even Florida Georgia Line (if they show more sides to them) show promise for new talent in this group, but there needs to be more. I think all the aspiring solo artists need to form duos, because that's where country music is lacking.
My Final 5: Thompson Square Florida Georgia Line Love and Theft Montgomery Gentry Big and Rich
As for the winner, based on sales Florida Georgia Line, based on overall experience Thompson Square. There are a lot of areas FGL needs to grow in so I give a slight edge to TS (very small edge). My heart wants to say Love and Theft as well but I don't see it happening just yet.
Horizon Award: Florida Georgia Line and Kacey Muscraves are locks. Love and Theft could be in there for another year and possibly Brantley Gilbert. Kip Moore, Jana Kramer, and Lee Brice have had a lot of success in the past year that would make them deserving. I would love to say Scotty McCreery, but like last year, he has yet to have the radio success the others have. Maybe next year depending on the success of the new music.
My Final 5: Florida Georgia Line Kacey Musgraves Jana Kramer Love and Theft Kip Moore
Florida Georgia Line will probably win this and they deserve it. They have had the most success out of all the new acts this year. Although Kacey Musgraves is loved by the industry so that might be enough to win it.
Song of The Year: This is a little difficult because I never know the difference between the song and single category, but I looked it up and I think I get it now. I don't see any locks in this category but I do see definite possibilities. "Like Jesus Does" is probably the most likely to get a nomination, and rightfully so. "Blown Away" is awesome and better get something. I loved the story with"I Drive Your Truck," that could be in there somewhere."Hey Pretty Girl" was very well written and tells a beautiful story. I love how "Wanted" was written, but it seems they are pushing "Somebody's Heartbreak," so we'll see. "Highway Don't Care" will get in there, if not here definitely in single. "When I See This Bar" is also great but I think it might have just missed the cut-off. "Changed" should be there but it probably won't be. It's probably one of the best songs Rascal Flatts has ever recorded, and gives me chills every time I hear it.
My Final 5: Like Jesus Does- Eric Church Blown Away- Carrie Underwood Wanted- Hunter Hayes Hey Pretty Girl- Kip Moore I Drive Your Truck- Lee Brice
As for the winner I honestly have no clue. I'm going to go out on a limb and say "Blown Away" or "Like Jesus Does" giving LJD the edge, since they haven't been too friendly to Carrie in recent years.
Single of the Year: Again I don't see any locks, but I do see definite possibilities. "Cruise" is probably the most likely; the song has been huge. "Highway Don't Care" will probably be there. Again "Wanted" or "Somebody's Heartbreak," but I think "Wanted" was the bigger single. "Crash My Party" was big this year, but I'm pretty sure "Drunk On You" was still climbing during the eligibility period so I would put that over CMP. "Momma's Broken Heart" will probably be in there, I hear that song all the time. "Wagon Wheel" was huge along with "Blown Away." I see "Boys Round Here" getting in there but I like the others better. Since I would rather see difference in the Song and Single categories this is what I'm going to predict:
My Final 5: Cruise- Florida Georgia Line Drunk On You ( but more than likely Crash My Party)- Luke Bryan Wagon Wheel- Darrius Rucker Mama's Broken Heart- Miranda Lambert Highway Don't Care- Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, and Keith Urban
Again I have no clue which way this will go, but I'm leaning "towards Cruise," based on charts and single sales. Although "Wagon Wheel" was pretty big too.
Album Of The Year: Question could Luke's "Tailgates and Tanlines" get another nomination this year, based on impressive sales and the fact it's a solid album? If that album is still eligible I would say it would be a huge contender. From what I've gathered the CMA usually base their nominations in this category on substance over popularity so if Florida Georgia Line's album is as horrible as some of you say it is (I don't own it so I wouldn't know) I doubt it will be nominated. Randy Houser's album "How Country Feels" is awesome so if I were in charge I would include it. Taylor Swift's "Red" will probably be there even though it's not country with the exception of one or two singles. Carrie Underwood's "Blown Away," better get a nomination, amazing stuff on there. Blake's "Based On A True Story" since they always seem to give him some love. More than likely Kacey Musgraves "Same Trailor Different Park" and probably Little Big Town's "Tornado." Brad Paisley's "Wheelhouse" might get in there too, but I'm not counting on it.
My final 5: Blown Away Tailgates and Tanlines- Luke Bryan (If not Based On A True Story- Blake Shelton) How Country Feels- Randy Houser (Red will probably get it, but I can dream) Same Trailor Different Park- Kacey Musgraves Tornado- Little Big Town
Again I have no clue here. Tailgates and Tanlines has been huge for Luke, but if it's not eligible I'm leaning more towards Blown Away. Kacey could pull an upset though.
EDIT: Completely forgot about The Band Perry's album Pioneer. I don't own the album but I've heard great things about it so maybe it could replace Tornado. Gary Allen's album had great reviews so maybe that one instead of How Country Feels or Red.
Musical Event of The Year Well this is not too hard since I can probably count only 5 musical events that happened this year. I don't even need to explain. I will say that I would rather see "Driving Around Song" or "Summer Jam" in there instead of "Cruise" with Nelly. I thought the Colt Ford and Jason Aldean collaboration was cool, and it's a fun song, and so was "Summer Jam." Also I like the original "Cruise" better.
My Final 5 Highway Don't Care-Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, and Keith Urban The Only Way I Know -Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and Eric Church Don't Rush- Kelly Clarkson and Vince Gill Driving Around Song- Colt Ford and Jason Aldean
This will be between "The Only Way I Know" or "Highway Don't Care." Not sure which way it will go.
Music Video of The Year "Highway Don't Care" and "Blown Away" will be there and are both strong videos (even though HDC confuses me). "Changed" probably won't get it but it's an amazing video so I'm going to include it anyway. "Downtown" was hilarious so based on that alone it should be there. "Someone Somewhere Tonight" might have just missed the eligibility period, but between Derek Hough's choreography and Kellie's performance it was a masterpiece. "Boys Round Here" might not be as strong as the others but probably popular enough to get a nomination.
My Final 5 Blown Away- Carrie Underwood Changed- Rascal Flatts Highway Don't Care-Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, and Keith Urban Downtown- Lady Antebellum Boys Round Here- Blake Shelton
I can't call this either. To me it should be "Blown Away" or "Changed," but it will probably be "Highway Don't Care."
Sorry this is long I tried to condense as much as I could while still being somewhat thorough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 13:25:22 GMT -5
Sorry this is long I tried to condense as much as I could while still being somewhat thorough. Loved reading your predictions, and welcome to the board! I think you could be really dead-on correct with a lot of your picks.
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Post by countryfan4life on Aug 24, 2013 18:13:21 GMT -5
Sorry this is long I tried to condense as much as I could while still being somewhat thorough. Loved reading your predictions, and welcome to the board! I think you could be really dead-on correct with a lot of your picks. Thanks for the welcome! Yeah sometimes these awards are pretty predictible and other times I have no clue where their thought process is. If it goes somewhat the way I thinking I will be pretty content. I really would like to see Carrie get some love this year even if it's not in Entertainer of the Year category. The one I really want her to win this year is Female Vocalist, because she's done more than enough to deserve it. As a huge Luke Bryan fan I would like to see him walk away with some awards too. Also I love your avatar! That was one of my favorite parts of the CMA Fest because it confirmed Carrie and Brad are back hosting and because they were hilarious with Little Big Town in. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2013 19:00:58 GMT -5
The second round of voting closes today. This round determines the final five nominees for each category, which will be announced on September 10 on GMA by Sheryl Crow and Florida Georgia Line. Moon Mullins of WBKR took fans on an inside look of the FYC packages that record labels sent to CMA members for voting for this year's awards. At the end of the video, he decided to establish a poll on the WBKR website for fans to submit their votes on who they believe deserved to be nominated for Entertainer, Male Vocalist, and Female Vocalist of the Year, and Mullins would submit those selected as nominees for each category. The fan vote decided upon Miranda Lambert for Female Vocalist of the Year, Luke Bryan for Male Vocalist of the Year, and Carrie Underwood for Entertainer of the Year.
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kml567
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Joined: June 2005
Posts: 972
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Post by kml567 on Sept 1, 2013 16:34:17 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Miranda will win FVOTY again. Miranda wants her 4th win to join the ranks of legends like Reba. Not only does she have the infamous Blake/Miranda/Reba voting block, she also has the frat-country (Jason/Luke) voting block. The ideal country female singer among the frat-country voters is a talented woman that can hang with the guys (i.e. loves beer, trucks and guns) but also feminine and pretty. That's Miranda!
There's no way Carrie (or Kacey with her truck-hating agenda) will beat Miranda anytime soon. She has Blake fans, Jason fans and Luke fans all voting for her.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 1, 2013 16:41:09 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Miranda will win FVOTY again. Miranda wants her 4th win to join the ranks of legends like Reba. Not only does she have the infamous Blake/Miranda/Reba voting block, she also has the frat-country (Jason/Luke) voting block. The ideal country female singer among the frat-country voters is a talented woman that can hang with the guys (i.e. loves beer, trucks and guns) but also feminine and pretty. That's Miranda! There's no way Carrie (or Kacey with her truck-hating agenda) will beat Miranda anytime soon. She has Blake fans, Jason fans and Luke fans all voting for her. It's not fan-voted though... I think that's your implication? Otherwise, I agree - I just think the whole demographic theory is a little irrelevant with the CMAs because they're voted on by the CMA members, not fans. Also, I'm sure Carrie wants her fourth Female Vocalist trophy just as much, if not more than Miranda... We'll see, but I really think it's a tossup this year - I'd like to think so, at least.
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