47th CMA Awards - Nov. 6 - OFFICIAL THREAD

[Deleted]

The 47th CMA Awards

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 8pm/7c

The Hosts

The Queen and her Court Jester

(Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley)

The Nominees

Announced on September 10, 2013 on "Good Morning America"
(Sheryl Crow, Florida Georgia Line)

Entertainer of the Year

Jason Aldean

Luke Bryan

Blake Shelton

Winner: George Strait

Taylor Swift

Male Vocalist of the Year

Jason Aldean

Luke Bryan

Eric Church

Winner: Blake Shelton

Keith Urban

Female Vocalist of the Year

Kelly Clarkson

Winner: Miranda Lambert

Kacey Musgraves

Taylor Swift

Carrie Underwood

Duo of the Year

Big & Rich

The Civil Wars

Winner: Florida Georgia Line

Love & Theft

Sugarland

Thompson Square

Group of the Year

Eli Young Band

Lady Antebellum

Little Big Town

The Band Perry

Zac Brown Band

Album of the Year

Winner: Based On A True Story..., Blake Shelton

Blown Away, Carrie Underwood

Red, Taylor Swift

Same Trailer, Different Park, Kacey Mugraves

Tornado, Little Big Town

New Artist

Lee Brice

Brett Eldredge

Florida Georgia Line

Winner: Kacey Musgraves

Kip Moore

Single of the Year

Winner: "Cruise", Florida Georgia Line

"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban

"Mama's Broken Heart", Miranda Lambert

"Merry Go Round", Kacey Musgraves

"Wagon Wheel", Darius Rucker

Song of the Year

Winner: "I Drive Your Truck", Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington & Jimmy Yeary

"Mama's Broken Heart", Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally & Kacey Musgraves

"Merry Go Round", Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, & Josh Osborne

"Pontoon", Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby, & Luke Laird

"Wagon Wheel", Bob Dylan & Ketch Secor

Video of the Year

"Blown Away", Carrie Underwood

"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton feat. Pistol Annies and Friends

"Downtown", Lady Antebellum

Winner: "Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban

"Mama's Broken Heart", Miranda Lambert

"Tornado", Little Big Town

Musical Event of the Year

"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton feat. Pistol Annies and Friends

"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line feat. Nelly

"Don't Rush", Kelly Clarkson feat. Vince Gill

Winner: "Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban

"The Only Way I Know", Jason Aldean feat. Luke Bryan and Eric Church

Musician of the Year

Sam Bush

Paul Franklin

Dann Huff

Brent Mason

Mac MacAnally

Reigning Winners

Entertainer, Blake Shelton

Male Vocalist, Blake Shelton

Female Vocalist, Miranda Lambert

Vocal Duo, Thompson Square

Vocal Group, Little Big Town

Song, "Over You", Miranda Lambert & Blake Shelton

Single, "Pontoon", Little Big Town

Album, Chief, Eric Church

New Artist, Hunter Hayes

Musical Event, "Feel Like a Rock Star", Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw

Music Video, "Red Solo Cup", Toby Keith

Musician, Mac McAnally

The Performers

Jason Aldean
The Band Perry
Luke Bryan ("Drink a Beer" and "That's My Kind of Night")
Eric Church ("The Outsiders")
Florida-Georgia Line
Hunter Hayes (in a duet with Jason Mraz on "Everybody's Got Somebody But Me")
Alan Jackson & George Strait in tribute to George Jones
Tim McGraw
Kacey Musgraves
Jennifer Nettles, Rascal Flatts, & Darius Rucker (in tribute to Kenny Rogers, who will receive the Willie Nelson Lifetime Achievement Award)
Lady Antebellum ("Compass")
Lennon & Maisy
Little Big Town ("Sober")
Brad Paisley ("Mona Lisa")
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift with Sam Bush, Eric Darken, Vince Gill, Alison Krauss, & Edgar Meyer (on "Red")
Carrie Underwood (a medley of "Good Girl"/"Blown Away"/"Two Black Cadillacs"/"See You Again")
Keith Urban (in a duet with Miranda Lambert on "We Were Us")
Zac Brown Band (with Dave Grohl)

The Presenters
Lee Brice
Connie Britton
Kelly Clarkson
Sheryl Crow
Brett Eldredge
Charles Esten
Eli Young Band
Lucy Hale
Kip Moore
Jake Owen
Kellie Pickler
Robin Roberts (presenting Entertainer of the Year)
Jase & Missy Robertson
Willie & Korie Robertson

[Deleted]

EOTY Carrie.

[erin1433]

For me, I don't know that Carrie and Brad will ever be able to top their skit of Tim and Faith barbies. Oh, that was SOOOO fantastic!

[jdbowman]

Aug 18, 2013 21:51:09 GMT -5 erin1433 said:

For me, I don't know that Carrie and Brad will ever be able to top their skit of Tim and Faith barbies. Oh, that was SOOOO fantastic!

I spent about 45 minutes rewatching all their opening monologues on YouTube a couple weeks ago. 'Twas unhealthy. But very entertaining.

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2013 19:56:06 GMT -5 @adam1995 said:

EOTY Carrie.

Lol.

[tim]

I can't remember the last time, if ever, that I have not been looking forward to the CMA's. This year has not been a stellar one for country music. There has never been a year in country music that I have followed so less than this one. I'll admit that I have been an avid follower of Billboard since about 1996, and well I gave up this year. I just seemed to care less after the change in the chart. I don't know if it's just a coincidence that this years music also seemed to be, well, just bad.

Here in Austin we have this local station, 98.5 KOKE FM (which plays Texas country and other traditional type country music) and the other night Mark Chesnutt's "Too Cold At Home" came on and I just couldn't help but take my mind back to that time in the 90's when country was country to me. Back when you could listen to an album from the beginning to the end and not get lots of fluff. Anyways...

Some standouts for 2013 (off the top of my head and in no particular order) would be...
"Every Storm..." by Gary Allan (my choice for single of the year...Gary's due for some recognition)
"Goodbye in Her Eyes" by ZBB
"If I Didn't Have You" by Thompson Square
"Highway Don't Care" by Tim McGraw
"Night Train" by Jason Aldean (not eligible if I'm correct...and I can forgive him for "1994" as I happen to be an 'ol Joe Diffie fan)
"Two Black Cadillacs" and "See You Again" by Carrie Underwood
"Mama's Broken Heart" by Miranda Lambert
"Runnin' Outta Moonlight" by Randy Houser
"Merry Go 'Round" and "Blowin' Smoke" by Kacey Musgraves
"Wagon Wheel" by Darius Rucker
"El Cerrito Place" by Kenny Chesney (also "When I See This Bar" but it's not eligible)
"Drinkin' Man" by George Strait (what a great, great song)
"On Your Side of the Bed" by LBT
"Downtown" by Lady A
"Begin Again" and "Red" by Taylor Swift (last one not eligible unfortunately)
"Like Jesus Does" by Eric Church

and...how about a rundown of some of the worst of 2013 (in no particular order):
"Done" by TBP (what happened to them? it's like their music literally had a head on collision...)
"1994" by Jason Aldean (again, I can forgive him for this one...but still)
"Crash My Party" by Luke Bryan
"That's My Kind of Night" by Luke Bryan
"I Drive Your Truck" and "Parking Lot Party" by Lee Brice (I'll get some flack for this and I know IDYT means well as I'm a Veteran but still...not a fan of that song at all nor him)
"Southern Girl" by Tim McGraw
"We Are Never Ever..." by Tayor Swift
"Hey Girl" by Billy Currington
"Don't Ya" by Brett Eldredge
"She Cranks My Tractor" by Dustin Lynch (how is this the same guy that gave us "Cowboys And Angels???")
and lastly anything by FGL (especially if it's mixed with Nelly).

Favorite albums: "Red" (Taylor); "Love is Everything" (George); "Ungaed" by ZBB (on a side note...how dare them let "Day That I Die" go without being a single); "Set You Free" by Gary Allan; "Same Trailer..." by Kacey Musgraves; "Two Lanes of Freedom" (Tim); "Golden" (Lady A)

Just some random favorites/dislikes on this years music and possible CMA nominations for single/song/album. Again, not really looking forward to the awards. If FGL is even nominated, I swear I will not watch...

[rjz]

^^^Wow, I'm surprised how much my choices echo yours. Especially surprised with TBP- I thought I was in a very tiny minority not liking their current album.
I only differ by taking Houser (just not a fan of his voice) out of the favorites and adding I Drive Your Truck into them; I do like Lee Brice and that song is one of my all time favorites.

And I wouldn't buy Don't Ya, but I don't mind it.

It will be quite interesting to see nominees this year. And to see if the King and Queen monopolize awards again

And it will be very interesting to see if FGL gets more than a token

[bigfan101]

Aug 19, 2013 2:29:43 GMT -5 tim said:

Just some random favorites/dislikes on this years music and possible CMA nominations for single/song/album. Again, not really looking forward to the awards. If FGL is even nominated, I swear I will not watch...

Well be prepared not to watch, FGL will at minimum be nominated for Duo of the Year because the quantity is so small. They will probably unfortunately win as well; their only competition is Thompson Square. The other nominees will probably be Civil Wars, Love & Theft and Big & Rich.

[Deleted]

FGL will WIN duo, and will also probably win Single of the Year for "Cruise". Wouldn't shock me at all to see it win Song, either, despite the obvious...lacking of certain qualities, to say it tamely.

[bigfan101]

Nomination Predictions:

I have decided to power rank potential nominations for the CMA's and my brief thoughts on the artist categories first and then the other categories later.

Entertainer of the year:
Locks:
1. Luke Bryan
2. Taylor Swift
3. Blake Shelton
4. Jason Aldean
Good Shot:
5. Carrie Underwood
Other Potential:
6. Tim McGraw
7. Miranda Lambert
8. Kenny Chesney
9. Hunter Hayes
10. Keith Urban
I would say the top four are locks for nomination, and I would power rank Luke as the most likely winner right now. I would say Carrie has better than a fifty/fifty shot, and then one of the final five will be the final nominee, my current prediction is Tim McGraw.

Male Vocalist of The Year
Locks:
1. Luke Bryan
2. Jason Aldean
3. Blake Shelton
Good Shot:
4. Tim McGraw
One of these:
5. Hunter Hayes
6. Kenny Chesney
7. Keith Urban
8. Brad Paisley
9. Eric Church
10. Randy Houser
11. Jake Owen
12. Darius Rucker
13. Chris Young
14. Toby Keith
15. Dierks Bentley
16. Lee Brice
So many potential nominees for this category. Only three locks as I cannot see this category without Luke, Jason and Blake but there are so many potential combinations on this and someone deserving will not make the cut. My current final three are Tim McGraw, Hunter Hayes and Kenny Chesney.

Female Vocalist of The Year
Locks:
1. Carrie Underwood
2. Taylor Swift
3. Miranda Lambert
Highly Likely:
4. Kasey Musgraves
One of these:
5. Kelly Clarkson
6. Sheryl Crow
7. Sara Evans
8. Jana Kramer
9. Cassadee Pope
While Taylor is a bigger lock on the Entertainer category, Carrie is a bigger lock here. I see her picking up the win right now. This category has the big three (Miranda, Taylor and Carrie) and everybody else. I foresee a Kasey nomination right now, with Kelly Clarkson picking up the final slot as we stand right now. However if Sara or Jennifer’s songs start flying up the chart, they could steal that final slot.

Group of the Year
Locks
1. The Band Perry
2. Little Big Town
3. Zac Brown Band
4. Lady Antebellum
Over 90% Chance
5. Eli Young Band
Longshots
6. Rascal Flatts
7. Gloriana
8. Pistol Annies
9. The Henningsens
10. Parmalee
I see this category as almost a 100% locks. Maybe someone bumps out Eli Young Band; but I doubt it. I do see The Band Perry victory at this point; they are the most consistent band right now on the charts.

Duo of the Year
Only Two Potential Winners
1. Florida Georgia Line
2. Thompson Square
Probable Nomination, but less than ten percent chance of winning
3. Civil Wars
Probable Nomination, but no chance of winning
4. Love & Theft
5. Big & Rich
Potential Replacements:
6. Joey & Rory
7. Montgomery Gentry
8 LoCash Cowboys
9. American Young
10. Sugarland
The most lean category with really only two potential winners. FGL should win based on success, but the CMA’s may not like them enough to take the trophy away from T2, which had a good year as well. I could see Joey & Rory getting back in but it was a struggle to get to ten duos. If Sugarland gets in, I might choke.

New Artist of The Year
1. Florida Georgia Line
2. Kip Moore
3. Brantley Gilbert
4. Kacey Musgraves
5. Lee Brice
6.Easton Corbin
7. Jana Kramer
8. Brett Eldredge
9. Sheryl Crow
10. Thomas Rhett
11. Tyler Farr
12. Dustin Lynch
13. Maggie Rose
This is the hardest category to anticipate nominations. Often the CMA’s choose people who are not really new but fit the rules for this category and put them in. If we were doing just new artists the nominees would be FGL, Kacey, Jana, Tyler and Thomas but they continusly put people in here who have had success for many years. The top five listed is who I see nominated. FGL is a lock I would say; Kip should be but has not received much award show love to date.
Will do some more categories later on.

[bigfan101]

Aug 19, 2013 10:37:12 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

FGL will WIN duo, and will also probably win Single of the Year for "Cruise". Wouldn't shock me at all to see it win Song, either, despite the obvious...lacking of certain qualities, to say it tamely.

I can see it being nominated for Single, but I doubt the CMA's would nominate it for Song. The ACM however

[spoonabdul3]

should be interesting to see if Kelly Clarkson recieves another FVOT nomination this year. she got one last year without really even doing anything. Over the past year they have pushed 3 songs to country radio. should be interesting to see if she squeezes in another nomination.

[josephmorgan]

There's a small mistake in your nomination predictions, bigfan. You put in LBT twice for Vocal Group.

[bigfan101]

^Thanks! fixed

[jdbowman]

Is Church's lack of a new single after "Like Jesus Does" gonna hurt him here? Thought for sure he'd get at least one lock nomination.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 13:49:41 GMT -5 jdbowman said:

Is Church's lack of a new single after "Like Jesus Does" gonna hurt him here? Thought for sure he'd get at least one lock nomination.

Don't think so. I actually think LJD will get a nomination for Song of the Year.

[Spacey_Kacey]

bigfan101 That's a really solid list. Just a few things, you may want to consider:

1. The cutoff date is June 30. Sara Evans may get small amounts of consideration, but I'd be surprised if Jennifer Nettles got any. They've had nothing all year. Also, I'm not sure how far Sheryl Crow's first single had gotten by then. Jana Kramer may be in a better position than any of them though I do agree with Kelly Clarkson 5th.

2. Sugarland's chances are better than you think. They should be at least 8th. I'd say probably 6th. But I agree, it would be completely absurd. Duo is an absolute joke right now.

3. New artists also include Lee Brice and Thompson Square. Lee should almost certainly get nominated. T2 probably. Houser is ineligible (working off his 3rd album). Maybe Easton Corbin to replace him? I'd also peg Rhett a few spots higher considering he has had three singles with solid success while the others have failed to get follow ups or even their first to move far up the charts.

4. This may be personal opinion, but for MV I think you are underselling Church and possibly Paisley (or at least overselling Urban). Keep that cutoff date in mind. I may even expect a nomination for Church. You also seem to be a bit high on McGraw at least for entertainer. Hunter should be nowhere near entertainer yet, and Chesney and McGraw should probably flip there. He has a huge entertainer reputation. That alone will get him close to a nomination. Church, Paisley and perhaps one of the groups (other than LBT) should be on that power ranking list over Hunter and probably Urban IMO. ZBB deserves it, but won't get it. I could see The Band Perry having an outside chance. Maybe not yet though. Lady A may be below them too. Hard choice, but it's likely for the 10th/11th spot so that wouldn't matter too much. Back to male vocalist: Jake Owen and Dierks Bentley certainly have to be on that power ranking. They'll get strong support. Probably won't get it, but neither will Lee Brice. I'd also put Chris Young and Darius Rucker at the back of that list if you are mentioning Toby Keith.

Thanks for putting that together. Really solid picture of the nomination races.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 18, 2013 19:56:06 GMT -5 @adam1995 said:

EOTY Carrie.

If voters have ANY sense, yes.

I've said it in the past, but truly 2012/2013 was Carrie's best time regarding this award - better than 2008 and better than 2010. Of course it's opinion, but I do think MORE THAN EVER Carrie is deserving of not only a nomination, but a win in this category. She's LONG overdue... With another handful of top 5/#1 hits, continued stellar album sales, hugely successful international tour, etc... It would only make sense for her to be nominated, in the very least. I don't expect it considering how the ACMs went, but I do hope for it.

My Nomination Predictions:

Entertainer of the Year:

Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Jason Aldean
Last slot: Carrie Underwood, Miranda Lambert, Kenny Chesney, Keith Urban, Tim McGraw.

Male Vocalist of the Year:

Hunter Hayes
Luke Bryan
Brad Paisley
Jason Aldean
Blake Shelton

Female Vocalist of the Year:

Miranda Lambert
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Kacey Musgraves
Kelly Clarkson

I'll post the rest later.

[bigfan101]

Aug 19, 2013 14:18:48 GMT -5 Spacey_Kacey said:

bigfan101 That's a really solid list. Just a few things, you may want to consider:

1. The cutoff date is June 30. Sara Evans may get small amounts of consideration, but I'd be surprised if Jennifer Nettles got any. They've had nothing all year. Also, I'm not sure how far Sheryl Crow's first single had gotten by then. Jana Kramer may be in a better position than any of them though I do agree with Kelly Clarkson 5th.

2. Sugarland's chances are better than you think. They should be at least 8th. I'd say probably 6th. But I agree, it would be completely absurd. Duo is an absolute joke right now.

3. New artists also include Lee Brice and Thompson Square. Lee should almost certainly get nominated. T2 probably. Houser is ineligible (working off his 3rd album). Maybe Easton Corbin to replace him? I'd also peg Rhett a few spots higher considering he has had three singles with solid success while the others have failed to get follow ups or even their first to move far up the charts.

4. This may be personal opinion, but for MV I think you are underselling Church and possibly Paisley (or at least overselling Urban). Keep that cutoff date in mind. I may even expect a nomination for Church. You also seem to be a bit high on McGraw at least for entertainer. Hunter should be nowhere near entertainer yet, and Chesney and McGraw should probably flip there. He has a huge entertainer reputation. That alone will get him close to a nomination. Church, Paisley and perhaps one of the groups (other than LBT) should be on that power ranking list over Hunter and probably Urban IMO. ZBB deserves it, but won't get it. I could see The Band Perry having an outside chance. Maybe not yet though. Lady A may be below them too. Hard choice, but it's likely for the 10th/11th spot so that wouldn't matter too much. Back to male vocalist: Jake Owen and Dierks Bentley certainly have to be on that power ranking. They'll get strong support. Probably won't get it, but neither will Lee Brice. I'd also put Chris Young and Darius Rucker at the back of that list if you are mentioning Toby Keith.

Thanks for putting that together. Really solid picture of the nomination races.

Smilo - appreciate your thoughts; needed to think better about the deadline which makes several of your items true.

1 & 2 Agreed on these itemes, again deadline issues.

3. I forgot about Randy Houser's third album, so I will eliminate him. On T2 and Lee, I thought there was a rule that you could only be nominated twice for the award and not recieve it before you are no longer eligible. That may be a figure of my mind, but that is what I thought.

4. I don't see Eric having as big of a year nomination wise as he did last year. For most of the eligibility time period that is fresh in people's minds he was working Like Jesus Does, which struggled more than his recent songs are. Chesney had some success but I thought McGraw's was more evident and he has the backing of Big Machine which has a solid voting pool. A little higher on Urban because of the positive feedback on AI and the exposure he gave for country music. Hunter might be a bit high, but with the crossover success and the sales of his album it is hard not to rank him. Plus he has the full backing of his label (Atlantic) plus WMN which might give him an edge. The Male Vocalist category is just no fun as their is so many worthy contenders. It could really go 15 deep.

Making some adjustments now to my categories.

[Deleted]

My predictions...

Musical Event of the Year
"The Only Way I Know", Jason Aldean feat. Luke Bryan and Eric Church
"Don't Rush", Kelly Clarkson feat. Vince Gill
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton feat. Pistol Annies and Friends
"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line feat. Nelly
There are only two worthy nominees in this category -- "Don't Rush" and "Highway Don't Care". Here's praying that the Tim/Taylor/Keith teaming can take this, but Blake is as strong as ever, BRH was a big hit this year, and the A-B-C collaboration was also pretty massive. "Cruise"'s remix may not get nominated here, but it fills out the ballot with 5 major musical events that occurred on Country music's clock this year, and it's become a massive hit. Lord knows that s**t will hit the fan if it wins over HDC. Sad to see that "Don't Rush" is probably the least likely to win this award since it's superior to 60% of the likely nominees.

Album
**Assuming that Blown Away can't be nominated...
Tornado, Little Big Town
-It's their breakthrough, they're the next hot group (alongside The Band Perry) in the format, and they've already had two Top 2 singles, as well as the smash "Pontoon". The album's nearing Platinum status (or has it already hit Platinum status?).
Pioneer, The Band Perry
-With how massive "Better Dig Two" and "DONE." have become, it's no denying that this album will spawn more hits. It's sold very well and has really solidified them as bona fide format heavy-hitters.
Here's to the Good Times, Florida Georgia Line
-Atrocious. Absolutely mortifyingly bad album, it has no artistic credibility, it's cliché crap, it has no appeal in terms of quality stylistics, and it's absolutely pathetic to see such a terrible group and a fantastical album of crap get so much attention and positive buzz from mindless fans and country PDs. "Cruise" alone solidified their placement in this category.
Based On a True Story..., Blake Shelton
-What better combination than three mediocre singles ("Sure Be Cool if You Did", "Boys 'Round Here", "Mine Would Be You"), solid album sales (this album is only behind Justin Timberlake and Jay-Z in terms of top-selling albums of 2013), and massive touring revenue to back up an otherwise bland album? The additional cherry on top that he's the reigning Entertainer of the Year! He'll get the nod.
Same Trailer, Different Park, Kacey Musgraves
-Her Metacritic score is higher than any other Country album released this year, and almost any other album released this year in any genre. Commercial success or not (which she certainly has, just not a ton of), she may even win this thing.
Brad Paisley, Kenny Chesney, and Lady Antebellum will all be passed over for this year's category. Gary Allan has a slight chance.

Single
"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton feat. Pistol Annies & Friends
"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line
"Downtown", Lady Antebellum
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"Wagon Wheel", Darius Rucker

Song
"Better Dig Two", The Band Perry
"Downtown", Lady Antebellum
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw feat. Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"Like Jesus Does", Eric Church
"Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)", Gary Allan
I think "Two Black Cadillacs" by Carrie Underwood could replace either Church, TBP, or Lady A. I definitely think Gary Allan and Tim/Taylor/Keith are both locks.

Group
The Band Perry
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Pistol Annies
Zac Brown Band
Rascal Flatts will be overlooked, and The Henningsens and Gloriana are too new to be able to break the final five. Pistol Annies should receive a nod, despite their lack of commercial success.

Duo
Big & Rich
Florida Georgia Line
Joey + Rory
Love & Theft
Thompson Square
The only real contenders here are Florida Georgia Line and Thompson Square, but we all know who will take this one home, despite Thompson Square being the reigning winners of this trophy. Also, bye-bye Sugarland. They literally did NOTHING this year and now Jennifer Nettles is solo for the time being, so they won't be getting any nominations for quite some time.

Female
Carrie Underwood
Kacey Musgraves
Miranda Lambert
Sheryl Crow
Taylor Swift
Finally, five nominees that actually make sense for this category. Between the constant Martina McBride bones that were thrown and last year's oddball nomination of Kelly Clarkson, these five actually have every right in deserving nominations for this award. Not sure where it'll go and the most deserving winner is obvious, but Carrie, Miranda, and Kacey all have cases to be heard from for this award. Sheryl and Taylor, not so much.

Male
Blake Shelton
Brad Paisley
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Luke Bryan
Keith Urban was a little too late with his release of "Little Bit of Everything" to clear the cut. Other than him, though, this is actually an incredibly competitive category this year, as Tim McGraw can certainly grab a nod, as can Hunter Hayes, Darius Rucker, and even Eric Church. It's sad that there's so much competition for the Male Vocalist trophy and so little competition for the Female trophy, but that's just telling of the current state of the genre. In a perfect world, anyone but Blake Shelton would win this, but since this world is far from perfect...

Entertainer
Blake Shelton
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Luke Bryan
Tim McGraw
I'm only leaving Carrie Underwood out because I don't want to get my hopes up, nor do I want to get anyone else's hopes up. We've all seen what's become of the CMAs in terms of their nominations, so being optimistic is silly at this point. Brad Paisley, admit it or not, is slowly fading out. His touring may still be stable, but his album sales and single sales have been low (for him) and his radio runs have been too artificial to be considered 'impressive'. Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw are both tour-de-forces, literally; that, and Tim McGraw is now on a new label, so nominations will surely come pouring in for him again. Luke Bryan's fame shot out of nowhere instantly and is now everywhere, and Blake Shelton is, well, Blake Shelton. Miranda Lambert and Taylor Swift will both be overlooked for the category this year, and rightfully so. It's just not their time or place this year, and between Miranda's minimal impact on radio and in sales compared to any of the aforementioned men and Carrie, and Taylor's venture into Pop that actually left Country dry of Taylor for weeks upon months, I think they'll be sitting the sidelines for Entertainer of the Year at this year's show.

I avoid predicting Music Video and New Artist because the Music Video category is generally the nominees for Single and Song, rather than actually basing it off of music videos, and New Artist generally consists of nominees that aren't new. I'm thinking Blake Shelton may take the award this year!

[Spacey_Kacey]

You make very solid points on McGraw and Urban. Definitely agree with you there. Thanks for backing that up. MV and Entertainer make sense respectively for them though I still like Chesney up a bit on Entertainer. I definitely didn't take into account AI though.

With regard to Hunter, Warner is going to be fully behind Blake for Entertainer. He hasn't had monumental crossover success. He has not yet been a lead act for anything and does not have the reputation as an entertainer (yet!). I'm a huge huge Hunter Hayes fan, but I think next year may be better. Of course we are quibbling over #10. Probably not even worth arguing over, but with Paisley hosting and Eric Church's reputation I do like them slightly ahead. No big deal though.

For New Artists, you may be right. I was not aware of that rule because I cannot imagine that coming into play very often. It would make a lot of sense though. I completely forgot Thompson Square was nominated in 2011. Lee Brice was only nominated last year, so if that is a rule, he should be on there still. Also, Easton Corbin was nominated a couple of years ago, but that was just once as well, so he is safe, just wanted to double check.

[Deleted]

In case anyone wants a list to base their nominations off of, here's the link to the 2013 Country music Wikipedia page. I know that it's Wikipedia, but it's still an accurately-compiled list.

[samsager3]

My picks probably have little chance of happening but i can dream cant I haha. Anyways I will say

Entertainer: 1.Luke Bryan -winner
2. Jason aldean
3. Brad paisley
4. Taylor swift
5. Blake shelton
LONGSHOT: Tim McGraw

Male vocalist: 1. Darius Rucker
2. Hunter Hayes - winner
3. Tim McGraw
4. Brad paisley
5. Jake Owen
Possible: 1. Luke Bryan
2. Blake shelton
3. Jason aldean
4 randy houser
5. Justin Moore
Female vocalist: 1. Taylor swift
2. Carrie underwood
3. Miranda lambert -winner
4. Kelly clarkson
5. Kacy musgraves
Vocal duo: 1. Love and theft
2. Florida Georgia line -winner
3 . Joey and rory
4. Civil wars
5 . Thompson square
Vocal group: 1. Lady antebelllum -winner
2. The band perry
3. Gloriana
4. Zac brown band
Song: 1. Wagon wheel- Darius Rucker -winner
2. Southern comfort zone- brad paisley
3. Every storm runs out of rain- Garry Allan
4. Blown away- Carrie underwood
5. Somebody's heartbreak- hunter Hayes
Single: 1. Cruise- Florida Georgia line -winner
2. Crash my party - Luke Bryan
3. Highway don't care- Tim McGraw
4. Blown away - Carrie underwood
5. Wagon wheel - Darius Rucker
6. Boys round here - Blake shelton
Couldn't decide on last two for single it's gonna be tough
Album: 1. Golden - lady antebellum
2. Wheelhouse - brad paisley
3. Based on a true story - Blake shelton
4. Pioneer - the band perry - winner
5. Here's to the good times - Florida Georgia line
New artist: 1. Florida Georgia line - winner
2. Brett eldredge
3. Randy houser
4. Kacy musgraves
5. Kip Moore

[Spacey_Kacey]

I think I made clear who I think will be the nominees based on my comments on another post. Instead of posting yet another similar post of nominee predictions that is so close to everybody else, this is who I think deserves to be nominated (for sake of maintaining at least some sort of realism, I will not include independent albums/songs from namely Jason Isbell, Holly Williams, and a couple others).

Entertainer
Taylor Swift
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Eric Church
Zac Brown Band
Carrie Underwood-Winner

Close: Paisley and Strait

Male Vocalist
Hunter Hayes-Winner
Jake Owen
George Strait
Lee Brice
Kip Moore

Close: Tim McGraw and Dierks. Also perhaps Randy Houser, Eric Church, Darius Rucker and Easton Corbin

Female Vocalist
Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert
Taylor Swift-Winner
Kacey Musgraves
Kelly Clarkson

Swift had a pretty flawless voting period. Kacey came close, but I think Taylor slightly edges her out.

Vocal Group
The Band Perry-Winner
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Lady Antebellum
Gloriana

EYB was pretty incactive during the voting period except for "Say Goodnight" which was horrid.

Vocal Duo
Thompson Square-Winner
Joey + Rory
Big & Rich
Love & Theft
Florida-Georgia Line

Song
"El Cerrito Place"-Winner
"Merry 'Go Round"
"Drinkin' Man"
"Mama's Broken Heart"
"Wagon Wheel" EDIT: (forgot about "I Drive Your Truck")(so hard not to replace this with "Elephant"!)

Close: "Goodbye In Her Eyes", "Give It all We Got Tonight", "Like Jesus Does", "Blown Away", "Begin Again", "Every Storm", Two Black Cadillacs", "Highway Don't Care", "I Want Crazy", kinda "Bourbon in Kentucky"

Single
"Cruise"-begrudgingly nominated for sales
"Boys 'Round Here"
"Wagon Wheel"-winner though I really don't care about single at all.
"I Want Crazy"
"Runnin' Outta Moonlight"

Close: "Wanted", "Highway Don't Care", "One of Those Nights", "Blown Away", "Crash My Party"

Album
Same Trailer Different Park
Like a Rose
Love Is Everything-Winner[/u]
Uncaged
Red

Close: All Over the Road, Pioneer, How County Feels, Set You Free, Golden

Vocal Event
"Highway Don't Care"-Winner only because BIK was not really a legitimate single.
"The Only Way I Know"
"Drivin' Around Song"
"Don't Rush"
"Bourbon in Kentucky"

Music Video
"Two Black Cadillacs"
"Merry Go 'Round"
"Mama's Broken Heart"
"Creepin'"-Winner
"Wanted"

Close: "Pontoon"

New Artist
Lee Brice
Kip Moore
Thompson Square
Easton Corbin
Kacey Musgraves-Winner

Close: Jana Kramer, Brett Eldredge, Brantley Gilbert

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 16:54:38 GMT -5 Spacey_Kacey said:

Female Vocalist
Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert
Taylor Swift-Winner
Kacey Musgraves
Kelly Clarkson

Swift had a pretty flawless voting period. Kacey came close, but I think Taylor slightly edges her out.

If I may ask, what is your reasoning behind picking Taylor as the winner for FVOTY?

[onebuffalo]

^I think the reason was stated below the 'nominees'.

[Spacey_Kacey]

Aug 19, 2013 16:59:52 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

Aug 19, 2013 16:54:38 GMT -5 Spacey_Kacey said:

Female Vocalist
Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert
Taylor Swift-Winner
Kacey Musgraves
Kelly Clarkson

Swift had a pretty flawless voting period. Kacey came close, but I think Taylor slightly edges her out.

If I may ask, what is your reasoning behind picking Taylor as the winner for FVOTY?

I assume you want me to compare her to Carrie (who is probably my favorite of the Big Three female artists typically), I really really hate "See You Again", and I don't know if either of their albums is better than the other. Among unreleased tracks, at the top you got "All Too Well" and "Red" versus "Wine After Whiskey" and "Do You Think About Me" and then a couple good songs on each.
In my opinion of the quality of the releases:
"Blown Away">"Begin Again"
"Two Black Cadillacs"<"Highway Don't Care"(yes, I am crediting her for that. It really was her single at the time too)
"See You Again"< < <"We Are Never Ever..." (albeit just barely. I can stand Taylor's from time-to-time)

The first two are extremely close though. I also think Carrie is the superior vocalist no question, but I try and judge it based on the material released within the period. I should have mentioned Carrie too because it is a closer race than I initially thought. I do love her, and I went to the Blown Away tour and loved it. I just think Taylor is at the top of her game and Carrie is not at her very very best. Maybe that's why I view it that way. You could easily go with Carrie or Kacey in that category though. It is close. The only reason not Miranda is because FGIT was dreadful.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2013 17:10:30 GMT -5 Spacey_Kacey said:

Aug 19, 2013 16:59:52 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

If I may ask, what is your reasoning behind picking Taylor as the winner for FVOTY?

I assume you want me to compare her to Carrie (who is probably my favorite of the Big Three female artists typically), I really really hate "See You Again", and I don't know if either of their albums is better than the other. Among unreleased tracks, at the top you got "All Too Well" and "Red" versus "Wine After Whiskey" and "Do You Think About Me" and then a couple good songs on each.
In my opinion of the quality of the releases:
"Blown Away">"Begin Again"
"Two Black Cadillacs"<"Highway Don't Care"(yes, I am crediting her for that. It really was her single at the time too)
"See You Again"< < <"We Are Never Ever..." (albeit just barely. I can stand Taylor's from time-to-time)

The first two are extremely close though. I also think Carrie is the superior vocalist no question, but I try and judge it based on the material released within the period. I should have mentioned Carrie too because it is a closer race than I initially thought. I do love her, and I went to the Blown Away tour and loved it. I just think Taylor is at the top of her game and Carrie is not at her very very best. Maybe that's why I view it that way. You could easily go with Carrie or Kacey in that category though. It is close. The only reason not Miranda is because FGIT was dreadful.

I fully respect your opinion and your reasoning behind backing it up, but I also respectfully disagree on some parts. (And you didn't have to compare her to Carrie because I'm very open to all potential nominees even though Carrie's my obvious favorite. ;) )

Personally, I'd rank the likelihood of each possible nominee's chances at winning as follows (going by the nominees I predicted, of course):

1./2. Carrie Underwood or Miranda Lambert
1./2. Miranda Lambert or Carrie Underwood
3. Taylor Swift
4. Kacey Musgraves
5. Sheryl Crow

Carrie and Miranda have had the biggest years on the format for women. Taylor's "Begin Again" was too sluggish to note and "Red" was released too late in the game for it to really make a dent in the voting. That, and for a Taylor Swift single, it's moving rather slowly, sitting in the mid-to-upper 20s after 8 weeks on the chart. She's been much more pop-focused this era than in era's past, which is why I don't think she'll take the trophy. The Female Vocalist award has always been about awarding commercial success in the format, rather than the best vocalist. If it was purely based on vocals, it'd be a constant, year-to-year battle between Carrie Underwood and Martina McBride. Taylor's just been very absent lately on the format, and although her touring numbers are better than almost every Country artist out there (minus maybe Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw's summer stadium tour, but Taylor's doing stadiums left and right, too), only about half of her tour occurred during the eligibility period whilst Carrie and Miranda both toured the entire eligibility period. Her album sales might overshadow her contemporaries in the format, but if you look at the Country single sales of "Begin Again" and "Red", Carrie's eligible singles -- "Blown Away", "Two Black Cadillacs", and "See You Again" -- collectively measure above her totals.
The FVOTY award is all commercially-based within the format. Taylor hasn't been within the format enough this year to seem like stiff enough competition against Carrie and Miranda. Just my opinion, of course. I see her as a better competitor for Entertainer, but even beating out the men this year could be a difficulty for her, as well.

We'll just have to see.

[Spacey_Kacey]

Oh, I have no doubt that Taylor has next to no shot to win. I would jump out of my seat from shock. I opened that post by saying those are my picks for who deserves to win rather than doing yet another set of predictions for nominees and winner because almost everyone's list is so similar. I completely agree with your rankings including the 1a and 1b of Carrie and Miranda. Carrie is my expected winner at this point, and I would not be the least bit upset if she did. I think Taylor is slightly more deserving, but Carrie had a pretty fantastic year too. That post was mostly meant to express my choices/wishes for most deserving nominees in Entertainer, Male, Song, Album, Music Video, and New Artist where there is a competitive field for nominations. I just threw the rest in there as I was going. I know George Strait and Kip Moore are not getting nominated over Blake, Luke, and Jason. I also know "El Cerrito Place" and especially "Drinkin' Man" have very little shot in a highly competitive song field.

[kml567]

Looks like 2nd round of CMA voting has begun.

Capitol already sending "for your consideration" gifts to CMA voters for Little Big Town. I see they're aiming for Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, Vocal Group of the Year, Song of the Year ("Your Side of the Bed"), Video of the Year ("Pontoon").

Carrie's gift package has a nice reminder for EOTY, Album of the Year "Blown Away", Single/Song/Video of the Year "Blown Away".

Looks like "Blown Away" the album is officially eligible for CMAs. :) Smart move for Team Carrie to promote "Blown Away" (the single) for Single/Song/Video. Don't think SYA or 2BC are strong enough.