Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 14, 2013 13:36:10 GMT -5
Imagine the meltdown and drama if Pulse existed when Madonna released Erotica and how that flopped compared to The Immaculate Collection and Like a Prayer. She was so over, wasn't she?
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 14, 2013 13:36:39 GMT -5
So if Ga edges out Em by 261 to 260 is that better than Em 291 and Ga 290? If #1 weren't in doubt, I doubt we'd be seeing the "meltdown." I still want to know how on earth the CMA went into effect last chart week (based on the Applause sales). It does not make sense - ARTPOP's single sales were converted to CMA last week, then the album should've charted. You can't CMA until released. Something is off in Billboard's methodology. Billboard started a new policy a few years ago. Street day violations (SDV) are counted the week the album comes out. We got a few SS200s where an album debuted due to SDV, but were not on the BB200. With low album sales below #100, almost every big album would debut due to SDV.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Nov 14, 2013 13:41:08 GMT -5
So if Ga edges out Em by 261 to 260 is that better than Em 291 and Ga 290? If #1 weren't in doubt, I doubt we'd be seeing the "meltdown." I still want to know how on earth the CMA went into effect last chart week (based on the Applause sales). It does not make sense - ARTPOP's single sales were converted to CMA last week, then the album should've charted. You can't CMA until released. Something is off in Billboard's methodology. Billboard started a new policy a few years ago. Street day violations (SDV) are counted the week the album comes out. We got a few SS200s where an album debuted due to SDV, but were not on the BB200. With low album sales below #100, almost every big album would debut due to SDV. Oh, that answers my question from the other thread. I didn't know about that policy. But don't a lot of rap albums still debut and then jump to #1? Or has that not happened recently? I dunno... Either way, is it reasonable to expect that the current prediction numbers don't include the pre-Monday redemptions, which totalled 40k or something? (based on the number of sales of Dope Billboard attributed to the CMA)
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musicjunky318
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Post by musicjunky318 on Nov 14, 2013 13:41:23 GMT -5
Ms. Germanotta is looking more and more like Cyndi Lauper rather than Madonna. Hmmm, I had a hunch this would happen.
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Nov 14, 2013 13:42:12 GMT -5
So if Ga edges out Em by 261 to 260 is that better than Em 291 and Ga 290? If #1 weren't in doubt, I doubt we'd be seeing the "meltdown." I still want to know how on earth the CMA went into effect last chart week (based on the Applause sales). It does not make sense - ARTPOP's single sales were converted to CMA last week, then the album should've charted. You can't CMA until released. Something is off in Billboard's methodology. Billboard started a new policy a few years ago. Street day violations (SDV) are counted the week the album comes out. We got a few SS200s where an album debuted due to SDV, but were not on the BB200. With low album sales below #100, almost every big album would debut due to SDV. So question is whether or not the SDV are included in the projections?
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Post by when the pawn... on Nov 14, 2013 13:43:15 GMT -5
Imagine the meltdown and drama if Pulse existed when Madonna released Erotica and how that flopped compared to The Immaculate Collection and Like a Prayer. She was so over, wasn't she? It's hard to compare since I didn't live through that. But that was also about 10 years into Madonna's career vs. 5 years into Gaga's. Also ARTPOP's low opening seems like the culmination of a growing backlash/decline rather than an unexpected artistic left-turn. However, I don't think this at all points to Gaga being over. I think she has 2 big hits (DWUW and Gypsy) plus 1 or 2 other decent hits in the wings. People still care about her (positively or negatively...but it counts) with plenty of industry cred/respect. She is an expert songwriter (hook-wise, at least) and continually puts out interesting music and videos, even if they aren't universally loved. She also has a rabid core fan base. And the success and more-importantly, impact, that she has made (so far) is pretty amazing. The 250-275k estimate is certainly discouraging and I wonder what her future looks like but I think she'll be fine.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 14, 2013 14:03:14 GMT -5
My post was a bit provocative and personally I don't compare Gaga to Madonna at all - they have been on their prime during completely different eras - but there are ups and downs in everyone's career. Gaga has achieved big things already and keeps doing her thing, unless she herself chooses otherwise.
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Tortuga
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Post by Tortuga on Nov 14, 2013 14:24:06 GMT -5
Now someone prepare one for Binny :'(
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Post by slicknickshady on Nov 14, 2013 14:37:28 GMT -5
Recovery only dropped 57% a week later. That Keith Caulfield of Billboard is an Eminem hater. Of course he's going to assume Em drops a lot. He blocked me on twitter years ago when i called him out on his Eminem hating. I would be floored if it's a 65% drop. As you can see, i'm not a Keith Caulfield fan. I saw nothing in his article that mentioned this is according to industry retailers or anything like that. It's like he pulled it out of his butt that Eminem will drop that much. LOL C'mon! He's looking at the numbers. Don't you think he talks to industry people before he writes an article saying GaGa will be #1 next week???? Likely just looked at Hits Daily Double which only predicts new releases the first day of predictions.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Nov 14, 2013 14:49:42 GMT -5
I think the bigger story here is if Eminem drops below 250. that would be a disaster Lol. A "disaster"?? No. His first week was phenomenal. He's going to scan 1 million in 2 weeks. Not a disaster. This album is going to sell for months to come. Why is everyone so dramatic? I was making a joke lol I know his 1st week was phenomenal. But to sell more than Recovery in the 1st week and to sell 100k less for the 2nd week compared to a 2009 album, that is a disaster to me personally because I wanted him to beat gaga to mess with everyone here lol
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Nov 14, 2013 15:07:02 GMT -5
Imagine the meltdown and drama if Pulse existed when Madonna released Erotica and how that flopped compared to The Immaculate Collection and Like a Prayer. She was so over, wasn't she? Erotica was her first Soundscan album to debut, so it would have been difficult to compare to LAP or IC.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Nov 14, 2013 16:30:38 GMT -5
Imagine the meltdown and drama if Pulse existed when Madonna released Erotica and how that flopped compared to The Immaculate Collection and Like a Prayer. She was so over, wasn't she? Erotica was her first Soundscan album to debut, so it would have been difficult to compare to LAP or IC. Plus she was already like 5 albums into her career.
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Nov 14, 2013 16:48:25 GMT -5
Updated figures coming soon, can't imagine this thread if her projections go down. That has happened before, right?
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Nov 14, 2013 17:22:35 GMT -5
Honestly, I think that it's more likely for predictions to go down than up.
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musicjunky318
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Post by musicjunky318 on Nov 14, 2013 17:36:04 GMT -5
Prediction - Eminem will get a second week at #1. He never drops that much.
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Post by slicknickshady on Nov 14, 2013 17:42:40 GMT -5
Prediction - Eminem will get a second week at #1. He never drops that much. Yep. Eminem outdid the predictions for his first week by almost 50k. So even if Billboard and Hits low ball him again on his predictions he will still get his 2nd week at #1.
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Post by Push The Button on Nov 14, 2013 17:45:05 GMT -5
I'm sure Gaga will be very front loaded, so 230-240k probably won't be out of the question.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2013 17:48:56 GMT -5
YOUR TOP 15 (PLUS ONE): Universal appears headed to having an unprecedented nine of the Top 10 albums on next week's chart, with Lady Gaga (seen at right with the co-stars of her upcoming holiday special) leading the pack. Kelly Clarkson's holiday album, Wrapped In Red, is the lone non-UMG title. We don't believe this has ever happened in the modern charting era. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Lady Gaga (Interscope) 240-260k Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 200-220k *Now 48 (UMe) 95-105k The Robertsons (EMI Nashville) 60-65k Katy Perry (Capitol) 45-50 Kelly Clarkson (RCA) 40-45k *The Beatles (Capitol) 35-40k Drake (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic) 30-35k Lorde (Lava/Republic) 30-35k *Jhene Aiko (Def Jam/IDJ) 30-35k Celine Dion (Columbia) 27-30k Miley Cyrus (RCA) 25-28k Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville) 24-27k Florida Georgia Line (Republic Nashville) 19-22k Imagine Dragons (KidinaKorner/Interscope) 17-20k Arcade Fire (Merge) 17-20k
Meanwhile, the 50-year anniversary of the Beatles' arrival in the U.S. makes us feel really freakin' old. (11/14p)
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Nov 14, 2013 17:50:20 GMT -5
At least Gaga is safe for #1. It really does depend on Saturday Night Live this weekend to see if she can reach 270K.
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Post by π
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Ύ on Nov 14, 2013 17:52:55 GMT -5
Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 200-220k :o Wow. What happened there?
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SuperTrouper
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Post by SuperTrouper on Nov 14, 2013 17:56:04 GMT -5
Eminem (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) 200-220k :o Wow. What happened there? Interscope probably issued a recall on it to make sure Artpop debuts on top
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musicjunky318
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Post by musicjunky318 on Nov 14, 2013 17:56:24 GMT -5
Hmm She made it. Still crazy she isn't cracking 300k though.
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Post by Push The Button on Nov 14, 2013 17:56:56 GMT -5
His debut was huge because he was following a huge album, but he doesn't have a big hit to push it like Recovery did.
"The Monster" will obviously be a huge Pop hit, but it's not there yet.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 14, 2013 17:58:52 GMT -5
If Eminem's album falls on the low end of the projection, that would be a near 75% drop- not unheard of these days. Not every album can have the super consistency of Pure Heroine.
This is Stefani G's fourth album (not counting holiday EPs and remix albums), though some may, understandably, link The Fame Monster with The Fame, given the way the release was handled. It's five years since she first "made it"- disappointing performances do happen. Despite the opening sales, some probably saw Born This Way's overall showing a disappointment compared to what preceded it.
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musicjunky318
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Post by musicjunky318 on Nov 14, 2013 17:59:32 GMT -5
Shout out to my Fab Four still slaying 40+ years later.
Kelly Clarkson I see you boo.
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Post by slicknickshady on Nov 14, 2013 18:00:41 GMT -5
Eminem outdid his projections by almost 50k week 1. He will do it again. Will it be enough we will see. Not if Gaga hits the high end. Worst case Scenario he will just get his second week at #1 in his 3rd Week.
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Post by josh on Nov 14, 2013 18:00:48 GMT -5
Did Eminem have pre-orders?
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Nov 14, 2013 18:00:55 GMT -5
Welp. It went down. At least number one looks safe...
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Nov 14, 2013 18:02:29 GMT -5
Did Eminem have pre-orders? One week or pre-orders.
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Post by Push The Button on Nov 14, 2013 18:02:39 GMT -5
Eminem outdid his projections by almost 50k week 1. He will do it again. Will it be enough we will see. Not if Gaga hits the high end. Worst case Scenario he will just get his second week at #1 in his 3rd Week. I personally think his second week will be around 810k. They always underestimate the GOAT.
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