someguy
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Post by someguy on Sept 3, 2014 17:55:19 GMT -5
How much risk is there with Luke Bryan? Is there any track on his CD that would not crack the top 5? I honestly don't think so. There isn't one song on there that I think would miss the top 5 if it was released.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Sept 5, 2014 14:44:08 GMT -5
How much risk is there with Luke Bryan? Is there any track on his CD that would not crack the top 5? I honestly don't think so. There isn't one song on there that I think would miss the top 5 if it was released. He could probably just have a song where he sings "lalalalalalalalalala I love you lalalalalalalalala lets go screw lalalalalalala then shoot a deer too lalalalala" and it'd be a Top 5 and at least Gold right now.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Sept 5, 2014 15:11:16 GMT -5
I honestly don't think so. There isn't one song on there that I think would miss the top 5 if it was released. He could probably just have a song where he sings "lalalalalalalalalala I love you lalalalalalalalala lets go screw lalalalalalala then shoot a deer too lalalalala" and it'd be a Top 5 and at least Gold right now. Sounds like some of the songs he's already recorded, honestly.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Sept 5, 2014 22:10:14 GMT -5
Luke will be performing "I See You" on TV next week!! Is that a clue that there will be a 6th single? :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 6:04:15 GMT -5
On what Tv program? Love that song.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Sept 7, 2014 18:29:55 GMT -5
Luke told fans he's performing this song on TV in 2 weeks on his 8/24 show, but didn't specify the TV program. I'm guessing the CBS special "Fashion Rocks" on Tuesday (along with Miranda Lambert and TBP)? He's actually doing a bunch of TV promo while in NYC this week, so it could be any of them.
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Post by countrym12 on Sept 7, 2014 18:47:40 GMT -5
On The Tonight Show's website he is listed as a guest for this Wednesday 9/10, so that's another possibility.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 9, 2014 22:50:32 GMT -5
This song's chart run has been an freight train, running over anything and everything in it's path. It currently has a 848 bullet on MB and is up 276 spins since Sunday, while up another 1.4 million in audience in that same amount of time (currently #4 on MB). It was the greatest spins gainer last week outside of Garth's song and up over 2000 total points which was tops in the MB top 10. It also has passed Cole Swindell in the process and is in shouting distance within Dustin. Not to mention the fact that a song who it was neck and neck with (FGL's "Dirt") not a long while ago, it has long since left in the dust.
I think this is a combination of song quality (subjective of course), time of year, and the fact Luke is the hottest thing going.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Sept 9, 2014 22:54:20 GMT -5
I would like for those who lived through the eras of artists before the 2010s and were followers of the charts, was the runs of guys like Garth, Strait, Chesney this big when they were the top guys of Country music? I find it interesting how an artist can get so hot for a period of time and either drop off or continue being successful at a more "normal" level.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 9, 2014 23:43:49 GMT -5
I would like for those who lived through the eras of artists before the 2010s and were followers of the charts, was the runs of guys like Garth, Strait, Chesney this big when they were the top guys of Country music? I find it interesting how an artist can get so hot for a period of time and either drop off or continue being successful at a more "normal" level. Garth had some pretty odd runs in the 90's but I don't have the numbers off the top of my head. Kenny had some super quick chart climbs. For instance; In 2007 he got to #1 in just 8 weeks with "Never Wanted Nothing More" and stayed there for 5 weeks. Then his follow up ("Don't Blink") debuted at #16 and also took just 8 weeks to top the charts, and stayed there for 6 weeks. Even a flame out like "Keg In The Closet" in 2005, had an unbelievable chart run before stalling at #6. It's R&R run was 45-32-24-17-12-10-9-9-8-7-6-6-7-Recurrent. Though it must be pointed out that chart runs went way quicker back in the 90's and early 2000's than now. Don't get me wrong, there were still +30 week chart runs, but they were fewer and far between. Labels have gotten into the habit to push singles past their natural peak. So perhaps Luke's chart run's should be even more impressive since the charts are incredibly slow compared to even 10 years ago. Any way you slice it, Luke's chart run for "Roller Coaster" is pretty amazing.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 0:03:49 GMT -5
I would like for those who lived through the eras of artists before the 2010s and were followers of the charts, was the runs of guys like Garth, Strait, Chesney this big when they were the top guys of Country music? I find it interesting how an artist can get so hot for a period of time and either drop off or continue being successful at a more "normal" level. Garth had some pretty odd runs in the 90's but I don't have the numbers off the top of my head. Kenny had some super quick chart climbs. For instance; In 2007 he got to #1 in just 8 weeks with "Never Wanted Nothing More" and stayed there for 5 weeks. Then his follow up ("Don't Blink") debuted at #16 and also took just 8 weeks to top the charts, and stayed there for 6 weeks. Even a flame out like "Keg In The Closet" in 2005, had an unbelievable chart run before stalling at #6. It's R&R run was 45-31-24-17-12-10-9-9-8-7-6-6-7-Recurrent. Though it must be pointed out that chart runs went way quicker back in the 90's and early 2000's than now. Don't get me wrong, there were still +30 week chart runs, but they were fewer and far between. Labels have gotten into the habit to push singles past their natural peak. So perhaps Luke's chart run's should be even more impressive since the charts are incredibly slow compared to even 10 years ago. The music industry and the radio industry have changed so much as well. Labels would almost certainly rather still sell more albums than singles, because album sales generate more money than single sales do, but with the explosive growth of iTunes in the last 10 years and now streaming services as well, the radio industry is much more singles-based. This results in longer chart runs, because successful singles are needed now more than ever in order to hold on to or generate halfway decent album sales. The big Platinum and multi-Platinum singles do make some money for the labels but not like albums do. So what happens is that the record companies nowadays are investing more and more into the "life" of each radio single, and that results in longer chart runs for pretty much anybody who isn't Luke. I didn't follow the charts in detail until I registered at Pulse 4 1/2 years ago, but I generally knew where all the big hits of the 90's and 00's had peaked on the charts; I simply didn't know how the charts worked. But in their prime, artists like Kenny, Keith, Tim, Faith, George, Alan, and Toby (among others) could just fly up the charts, and their songs would sit at #1 for 4-6 weeks or sometimes even longer. Radio practices have changed a lot in just the last 4 years. For one example, all you have to do is look at the daily Mediabase updates. Kenny is currently #1 with 7744 spins and 55.6 million in audience. But just 3 years ago to the day, the #1 song (Barefoot Blue Jean Night) only had 6075 spins and 41 million in audience ( see here). It's not necessarily that country's audience has grown (although, overall, it has), but we've seen a lot of big market stations added to the panel, and radio programmers play the big hits more and more frequently which drives up the audience numbers. The MB numbers also include high airplay figures from the Westwood One satellite stations (the current #1 song on Westwood One's Mainstream Country playlist is "Bartender", and it has 3.7 million in audience from just 39 spins at that one station alone; neither Mainstream Country nor W1's Hot Country were included in the numbers a couple years back). And as I mentioned, we've seen a lot of Clear Channel and Cumulus stations be flipped from various formats to country. And, like I also briefly noted above, country radio programming has changed...it's becoming more and more like how pop radio stations program their playlists. People don't listen to the radio now as much as they did years ago--today's radio is mostly in-car entertainment (which I believe is partially to blame for the lack of substance on country radio, but that's a whole 'nother discussion). Programmers play the "power" songs (basically those in the top 10) more and more because chances are, those are the songs that most listeners want to hear. Those songs have generally proven themselves as hits in regards to both digital sales and radio feedback, but since most people only listen to the radio in short segments, the "powers" need to be played more frequently so that listeners are more likely to catch them during the brief times that they are listening to the radio. Thus, today's top songs have much higher spin/audience totals than they did even just 18 months ago. This is getting a bit long-winded now so I'll probably stop there, haha.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 10, 2014 0:10:08 GMT -5
^ One of you're best posts jhomes87. Every single paragraph was spot on and I agree with every word. :)
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Sept 10, 2014 0:11:16 GMT -5
sabre14 jhomes87 thanks for that ^, interesting read for someone who has minimal knowledge of the charts and how they work. Thanks!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 10, 2014 9:07:22 GMT -5
I could honestly see Luke Bryan passing Dustin Lynch and be #2 next week.
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Post by tim on Sept 10, 2014 9:34:12 GMT -5
I could honestly see Luke Bryan passing Dustin Lynch and be #2 next week. That would be absolutely splendid and great news! That is one song I want to see miss out on clinching a manufactured #1. As for "Roller Coaster," I am still loving this song and is easily becoming one of my favorites so far this year.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 10, 2014 9:36:58 GMT -5
I could honestly see Luke Bryan passing Dustin Lynch and be #2 next week. That would be absolutely splendid and great news! That is one song I want to see miss out on clinching a manufactured #1. As for "Roller Coaster," I am still loving this song and is easily becoming one of my favorites so far this year. I agree. Luke Bryan is on a 'roll'er here. He would have the 35th country music album with four #1s on it. I would love to update that list and put Crash My Party on it!
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 10, 2014 14:27:04 GMT -5
Luke and Cole are going to be duking it out the next 2 weeks. Today on MB, Cole edged out Luke for the #3 spot. Cole has a 0.25 edge in audience, and about 200 extra spins. I'm curious to see if these two keep flip flopping, or if one of them will surrender to the other.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 16:24:28 GMT -5
I could honestly see Luke Bryan passing Dustin Lynch and be #2 next week. Who says Kenny is going to stay at #1? Especially since Dustin Lynch is currently tracking at #1 on the RTT. On Mediabase today, Kenny lost 29 spins but gained 100k in audience. Dustin gained a whopping 130 spins and a modest 324k in audience. Cole passed Luke; Cole gained 140 spins (!!) and 771k in audience. Luke increased by 31 spins and 504k in audience. On Monday's Billboard chart, Kenny's lead over Dustin was a little less than 1.3 million. Luke Bryan and Cole Swindell were neck and neck, each of them 3 million behind Kenny. It's really anybody's guess as to what order they'll all finish in...it's too early in the week.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Sept 11, 2014 10:05:08 GMT -5
Solid performance of this on The Tonight Show. It's not the kind of song you can really crush (not emotional enough to be stunning, not uptempo enough to be super fun), his guitar strumming is really weird and the vocal mix wasn't optimal, but he just projects so much charisma when he performs.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 24, 2014 10:17:17 GMT -5
#1 in Canada!
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Sept 24, 2014 16:08:11 GMT -5
Luke & Blake are just as hot as Tim, Toby, Alan, Kenny, George, Keith, Garth and the other format superstars of the 1990s were back in those days, the timetable for 'weeks to #1 by a format superstar' was 6-12 weeks back then; those numbers have risen steadily owing to the 'great chart slowdown of 2003' as Lon Helton cited in a column in R&R in early 2004; 10-15 weeks has been the new timetable for superstars for several years now.
Country radio like any other format prioritizes tunes by its superstars as it relates to screaming up the charts; a song such as 'My Eyes' streaked to #1 in 10-11 weeks as have several other Blake Shelton tunes, and ditto for any Luke Bryan song you can name over the same time frame, although Kenny Chesney went back-to-back with multiple-week charttoppers (5 and 6 weeks respectively) at Mediabase with 'Never Wanted Nothing More' and 'Don't Blink' in 2007, something which Tim, Toby & Alan did with boring regularity with what turned out to be many of the format's biggest singles of the past 15+ years rather routinely.
While Blake & Luke have certainly hit #1 every 12-14 weeks or so as they have over the past 3-5 years, their singles simply don't have the staying power that other singles by those previously mentioned artists did, as evidenced by their recurrent airplay; toss in the top 40 like dramatic increases in spins for singles in power rotation these days and having 3-5 such songs on the typical station playlist at any given time, that pretty much ensures the 'burn' rate for their tunes will also go up dramatically.
'My Eyes' went up & down the charts so quickly that it definitely won't make the year-end top 30 and the same goes for 'Drink a Beer', and 'Doin' What She Likes' might miss the year-end top 20 as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2014 0:21:14 GMT -5
While Blake & Luke have certainly hit #1 every 12-14 weeks or so as they have over the past 3-5 years, their singles simply don't have the staying power that other singles by those previously mentioned artists did, as evidenced by their recurrent airplay; toss in the top 40 like dramatic increases in spins for singles in power rotation these days and having 3-5 such songs on the typical station playlist at any given time, that pretty much ensures the 'burn' rate for their tunes will also go up dramatically. This is something I've been thinking about a lot lately. I don't have any raw numbers, but it definitely seems like today's big stars don't get nearly the airplay that the big hits of 10-15 years ago get. It's rare for me to hear a Blake Shelton single even as recent as Red River Blue, and I never hear anything from Luke prior to Crash My Party, not even "Country Girl (Shake It For Me)" or "Drunk On You". I'll be curious to see the next time Country Aircheck publishes a list of "Power Golds" or Top Recurrents from the last (x amount) of years. It just seems like the format as a whole is moving more toward current music and less recurrent music. But at the same time, even though they play a lot of current music, they don't play enough songs or enough variety. Instead, they continually play the same 10-20 songs over and over again. Airplay numbers are driven up like on the pop charts, but as soon as songs disappear from the charts, after a year or two, I don't seem to hear them hardly at all.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Sept 25, 2014 1:57:31 GMT -5
Guess it depends on the station(s) because I still hear a lot of "older" songs from the superstars of today on a regular basis.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 25, 2014 11:46:03 GMT -5
Capitol is having a heavy foot on the gas pedal. Roller Coaster just moved into #1 at MediaBase.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2014 16:50:27 GMT -5
Any word on when another single will drop? I'm hoping for "I See You".
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Oct 18, 2014 17:38:21 GMT -5
While Blake & Luke have certainly hit #1 every 12-14 weeks or so as they have over the past 3-5 years, their singles simply don't have the staying power that other singles by those previously mentioned artists did, as evidenced by their recurrent airplay; toss in the top 40 like dramatic increases in spins for singles in power rotation these days and having 3-5 such songs on the typical station playlist at any given time, that pretty much ensures the 'burn' rate for their tunes will also go up dramatically. This is something I've been thinking about a lot lately. I don't have any raw numbers, but it definitely seems like today's big stars don't get nearly the airplay that the big hits of 10-15 years ago get. It's rare for me to hear a Blake Shelton single even as recent as Red River Blue, and I never hear anything from Luke prior to Crash My Party, not even "Country Girl (Shake It For Me)" or "Drunk On You". I'll be curious to see the next time Country Aircheck publishes a list of "Power Golds" or Top Recurrents from the last (x amount) of years. It just seems like the format as a whole is moving more toward current music and less recurrent music. But at the same time, even though they play a lot of current music, they don't play enough songs or enough variety. Instead, they continually play the same 10-20 songs over and over again. Airplay numbers are driven up like on the pop charts, but as soon as songs disappear from the charts, after a year or two, I don't seem to hear them hardly at all. I tend to hear only recent songs from big artists too, even on WATZ. But in their case, it's because they're playing a.) obscure independent acts who will chart twice on MusicRow then never be heard from again, b.) lower-charting songs I haven't heard in years (e.g. "Pour Me"),, c.) at least one song per hour that's older than I am, or d.) "Stays in Mexico", which I swear they still play twice a day on average.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 18, 2014 18:55:49 GMT -5
Any word on when another single will drop? I'm hoping for "I See You". I think they might be done with singles at this point, but that's just pure speculation on my part. The album has already sold about all it can sell, so the next single might struggle digitally and would risk not being certified Gold. I agree with you though, "I See You" would be the best choice available.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2014 19:51:39 GMT -5
Any word on when another single will drop? I'm hoping for "I See You". I think they might be done with singles at this point, but that's just pure speculation on my part. The album has already sold about all it can sell, so the next single might struggle digitally and would risk not being certified Gold. I agree with you though, "I See You" would be the best choice available. I think another single would still go Gold pretty easily. And while the album isn't selling a ton anymore, it still hasn't dropped out of the top 10 country albums yet. Here are the current top 10 country albums, courtesy of onebuffalo. BILLBOARD TOP TEN COUNTRY ALBUMS (CHART WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 25, 2014): 1. Old Boots, New Dirt - Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) - 278,000 2. Bringing Back The Sunshine - Blake Shelton (Warner Bros.) 3. 747 - Lady Antebellum (Capitol) 4. The Big Revival - Kenny Chesney (Blue Chair/Columbia) 5. The Cowboy Rides Away: Live From AT&T Stadium - George Strait (MCA) 6. Sundown Heaven Town - Tim McGraw (McGraw/Big Machine) 7. Crash My Party - Luke Bryan (Capitol)8. Moonshine In The Trunk - Brad Paisley (Arista) 9. Angels Among Us: Hymns And Gospel Favorites - Alabama (Cracker Barrel) 10. Just As I Am - Brantley Gilbert (Valory) Luke is probably still selling upwards of 10,000 copies a week. I'm not saying that they won't do a 6th single, but if he's not ready to move on to a new album yet, I definitely won't be surprised if Capitol does put out one more single.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 18, 2014 21:09:02 GMT -5
^I didn't mean that the album wasn't still selling decently, I guess I just meant that at this point the album is just coasting, much like Tailgates & Tanlines did for a long time. I think the album will sell roughly the same amount with or without a 6th single. But the magic question is whether Luke has new material ready or not. I don't think taking some time away from radio would be a terrible thing for him. It could allow more his demand and hype for the next album to build. They also could wait, and try releasing a single off his next Spring Break EP (assuming there is one). They will have their options, especially since there are still 3 radio hits left on the album IMO (I See You, Dirt Road Diary, and Out Like That).
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Oct 18, 2014 22:54:42 GMT -5
I expect there to be a sixth (and possibly even seventh) single. "We Run This Town" and "Dirt Road Diary" would be my choices, though I also wouldn't be surprised with "I See You" either. Hopefully there will be an announcement in Monday's BCU.
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