someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 25, 2015 19:57:01 GMT -5
I'd expect this to hit #1 in two weeks, with a very slight chance of doing it next week, if Dierks is satisfied with a Billboard only #1 (assuming he makes it there on Monday). I don't think that's very likely though, and hitting #1 in two weeks seems like a much safer bet.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 25, 2015 20:12:02 GMT -5
I'd expect this to hit #1 in two weeks, with a very slight chance of doing it next week, if Dierks is satisfied with a Billboard only #1 (assuming he makes it there on Monday). I don't think that's very likely though, and hitting #1 in two weeks seems like a much safer bet. I expect a major push from "A Guy Walks Into A Bar" around that same time, especially since his album comes out next week. I think he's got 2-3 weeks left tops, so I could see them try to stage an ultimate push, at least for the MB #1. It'll be curious to watch all the updates next week for all 3 of these songs.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 25, 2015 20:15:16 GMT -5
I'd expect this to hit #1 in two weeks, with a very slight chance of doing it next week, if Dierks is satisfied with a Billboard only #1 (assuming he makes it there on Monday). I don't think that's very likely though, and hitting #1 in two weeks seems like a much safer bet. I expect a major push from "A Guy Walks Into A Bar" around that same time, especially since his album comes out next week. I think he's got 2-3 weeks left tops, so I could see them try to stage an ultimate push, at least for the MB #1. It'll be curious to watch all the updates next week for all 3 of these songs. Good point - I had forgotten about Tyler's album release being so soon. That could complicate things for "Raise Em Up".
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Post by myeverything on Apr 25, 2015 20:29:35 GMT -5
"Complicate" is never a word I like to hear.. but as long as it gets to the top then I am happy!!
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Post by urbangirl13 on Apr 26, 2015 9:27:01 GMT -5
Hey Ashley, fancy meeting you here. "Complicate" is never a word I like to hear either, especially in connection with Keith. As long as this song reaches #1, I'll be happy too. I'm just praying Tyler Farr doesn't prevent it somehow.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 13:53:56 GMT -5
The audience gap between this and Tyler Farr's "A Guy Walks into a Bar" is way smaller on Billboard than it is on Mediabase (only 450k on Billboard, over a million on Mediabase). Tyler also has a lead in spins on Mediabase and it seems like the Mediabase points gap between the two is staying quite small. It would be in Capitol's best interest to try to split the #1's this weekend between "Say You Do" (Mediabase) and "Raise 'Em Up" (Billboard) but this might be a tough scenario to maneuver since Dierks is still way ahead of Keith and Tyler in audience, meaning he'd have to continue gaining spins steadily through Sunday but also lose a pretty large chunk of audience in order to maintain the Mediabase #1 on Sunday while still ceding the Billboard #1 to Keith the very next day. In addition to this being a stretchy scenario, there's the chance that even if Capitol does let Dierks plummet from #1 on Billboard Monday, Tyler will be the one to take over the Billboard #1 this week since he continues to out-gain Keith in audience and his song will be fueled by an album release this week. I'd actually be very surprised to see any song miss out on a Billboard or Mediabase #1 here. If I had to guess how things are going to work out, I'd say Dierks will maintain his lead over Keith and Tyler and get his week at #1 on Mediabase and a second week at #1 on Billboard this weekend. Next week, even if Farr has pushed ahead of Keith on Billboard, I don't see why Capitol can't simply give "Raise 'Em Up" a big push and jump back ahead to claim the #1 on both charts next weekend. Then, the #1 position will be all Tyler's two weeks from now. Everyone will get a turn at #1, as usual. That's really how the country charts just about always work. Whenever it seems like one song might be closing in on another and some song could potentially get blocked, each label is able to put together a strong enough final push to make sure its song gets to spend one week at #1 on both charts. When a song misses #1 on Billboard, it's often a sign that the push for #1 was really a stretch (i.e. "Homegrown Honey"), and when a song misses #1 on both charts ("This Is How We Roll," "Something in the Water," "Lonely Eyes") it's often a sign the label was sleeping on the job.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 6:10:49 GMT -5
Billboard RTT this morning:
Country No.1 Keith Urban Feat. Eric Church Raise 'Em Up +5338 Chris Janson Buy Me A Boat
"Raise 'Em Up" is neck and neck with Tyler Farr on Mediabase; REU was just 9 points ahead on the published chart.
I'm wondering if we'll see a repeat of the Lee Brice/Dierks Bentley situation. Lee took the Mediabase #1 first, followed by Dierks, which allowed Dierks to get 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard. In this case, it would be Tyler leaping over Keith/Eric to take the Mediabase #1 first (but only peaking at #2 on Billboard), and then REU being the MB #1 on Sunday the 17th and getting 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard.
Too early to tell how it will go, though. It's entirely possible that they both get a single week at #1 on both charts.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 13:19:10 GMT -5
Columbia has no reason to push for a Mediabase-only #1 this Sunday, though. "Drinking Class" had been struggling in the top 5 and got passed by "Say You Do" at the last minute, so Curb really had to try to push back ahead, but Tyler has been doing fine and he's been behind Keith/Eric since before the two hit the top 10. It wouldn't make much sense why Tyler's team would feel the need to do a big push this week when they should have no trouble getting to #1 on both charts next week after "Raise 'Em Up."
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 5, 2015 14:56:54 GMT -5
With Raise 'Em Up about to be a #1 hit, two things will happen:
1. Keith Urban will get chart topper #18. That will place him from #29 to #25 on the list of those with the most #1s. 2. Eric Church will get his sixth #1 hit. He is currently at #124 on the list of those with the most #1s. Chart topper #6 will move him to #97, making the top 100 almost exclusive of those artists with at least a half dozen #1s.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 21:18:07 GMT -5
Columbia has no reason to push for a Mediabase-only #1 this Sunday, though. "Drinking Class" had been struggling in the top 5 and got passed by "Say You Do" at the last minute, so Curb really had to try to push back ahead, but Tyler has been doing fine and he's been behind Keith/Eric since before the two hit the top 10. It wouldn't make much sense why Tyler's team would feel the need to do a big push this week when they should have no trouble getting to #1 on both charts next week after "Raise 'Em Up." Are you sure about that? Tyler lost 33 spins on the Billboard Indicator chart last night (where REU has been #1 for 2 weeks, and is still gaining spins), and "A Guy Walks Into A Bar" is really old. It has the 2nd highest burn-rate (12%) of any song on the Mediabase callout survey. The only song with a higher burn percentage is "Drinking Class" (12.8%). "Raise 'Em Up", on the other hand, is a younger song with only 5.6% for a burn rate. I think Tyler's song and Lee's song are in a more similar situation than you think. Farr has been able to gain more easily than Brice did down the stretch, sure, but that could be due to a lot of reasons (different label, album release, etc). Both the Callout America and RadioFeedback surveys also show that Tyler's 'fatigue' numbers are higher than almost any other song. On RadioFeedback, for example, Farr's fatigue score is 26...the only songs with a higher score in that category are "Drinking Class" (29.5) and "Little Red Wagon" (30.7), and we've all seen how fast those songs have plummeted. Lee lost over 12 million on Billboard last night, which is one of the steepest single-week drops that I can remember. The longer that Columbia has to keep Tyler's 40-week-old song going, the harder it's going to get for him to manage any gains. He's within striking distance of Keith/Eric right now--Tyler trailed them by only 9 points on the published Mediabase chart--and Sony Nashville has proven multiple times within the past 1-2 years that they're either a) not the best at managing a song's final weeks or b) perfectly content with Mediabase-only #1's. I suspect it's a little bit of both. Again, I'm not saying that this will happen (and I even said as much in my last post), but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Farr's song is old, it's always been somewhat polarizing, and a lot of listeners are tired of it. And UMG Nashville might want to push for another 2-week Billboard #1 with "Raise 'Em Up", and then have Billy Currington follow after that. In any case, so far it's not looking like this theory/speculation is going to be correct. Two days into the MB week, and REU is pulling away from Farr. There's also a "power up for #1" ad for REU in today's daily Aircheck email.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 22:31:56 GMT -5
^Those are definitely some good points, jhomes87. You're right, Lee and Tyler are in a bit of a similar situation, but as you said it is looking like Capitol is claiming this week for Keith and Columbia will likely end up pushing Tyler to #1 next week. I think the only thing that made Tyler's top 10 run smoother than Lee's was that Tyler didn't have to deal with two of the biggest digital sellers of 2015, "Homegrown" and "Take Your Time," which caught Lee while he was already in the top 10 and probably contributed to Curb's struggle to get airplay for a song that wasn't nearly as new or popular. On a separate note, I noticed Eric Church is taking the spot on Country Countdown USA that "should" go to Keith Urban this weekend, since it is in between Dierks' and Tyler's weeks to co-host. I think it's quite possible Eric will perform his own current single rather than this to get extra spins for "Like a Wrecking Ball" since "Wrecking Ball" isn't doing so hot on the charts and could use the boost way more than this. However, this brought to my attention the question of whether an Eric Church solo performance of "Raise 'Em Up" hypothetically would count as an extra spin for REU, even though the song is credited as being a Keith Urban song. I guess the logical answer would be "no," since it's basically like any artist covering someone else's single, but it'd just be a strange situation if an artist featured on a song performed the song by himself and this didn't count as a spin of the song.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 22:37:21 GMT -5
^Those are definitely some good points, jhomes87. You're right, Lee and Tyler are in a bit of a similar situation, but as you said it is looking like Capitol is claiming this week for Keith and Columbia will likely end up pushing Tyler to #1 next week. I think the only thing that made Tyler's top 10 run smoother than Lee's was that Tyler didn't have to deal with two of the biggest digital sellers of 2015, "Homegrown" and "Take Your Time," which caught Lee while he was already in the top 10 and probably contributed to Curb's struggle to get airplay for a song that wasn't nearly as new or popular. On a separate note, I noticed Eric Church is taking the spot on Country Countdown USA that "should" go to Keith Urban this weekend, since it is in between Dierks' and Tyler's weeks to co-host. I think it's quite possible Eric will perform his own current single rather than this to get extra spins for "Like a Wrecking Ball" since "Wrecking Ball" isn't doing so hot on the charts and could use the boost way more than this. However, this brought to my attention the question of whether an Eric Church solo performance of "Raise 'Em Up" hypothetically would count as an extra spin for REU, even though the song is credited as being a Keith Urban song. I guess the logical answer would be "no," since it's basically like any artist covering someone else's single, but it'd just be a strange situation if an artist featured on a song performed the song by himself and this didn't count as a spin of the song. Admittedly I don't listen to Lon's countdown so I don't know how it goes, but are you saying that the co-host actually performs the song live when they tape the show with Lon? I was under the impression that they usually just played the co-host's song (the studio version) a 2nd time at some point during the show. I don't remember the exact reason that Keith couldn't be on the show, but I'm pretty sure he's going to be travelling with his wife, and of course he's been busy with American Idol as well.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 22:48:14 GMT -5
^I haven't heard the countdown recently either, but I do remember hearing Lady Antebellum perform "Dancin' Away with My Heart" at the very beginning of the show a few years ago. I'm honestly not sure what's the norm, though. I just figured it'd seem more natural for the guest host to perform the song rather than have the studio version played twice in the same show. Maybe someone who has heard the show recently could give some insight?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 5, 2015 23:08:01 GMT -5
^Those are definitely some good points, jhomes87. You're right, Lee and Tyler are in a bit of a similar situation, but as you said it is looking like Capitol is claiming this week for Keith and Columbia will likely end up pushing Tyler to #1 next week. I think the only thing that made Tyler's top 10 run smoother than Lee's was that Tyler didn't have to deal with two of the biggest digital sellers of 2015, "Homegrown" and "Take Your Time," which caught Lee while he was already in the top 10 and probably contributed to Curb's struggle to get airplay for a song that wasn't nearly as new or popular. On a separate note, I noticed Eric Church is taking the spot on Country Countdown USA that "should" go to Keith Urban this weekend, since it is in between Dierks' and Tyler's weeks to co-host. I think it's quite possible Eric will perform his own current single rather than this to get extra spins for "Like a Wrecking Ball" since "Wrecking Ball" isn't doing so hot on the charts and could use the boost way more than this. However, this brought to my attention the question of whether an Eric Church solo performance of "Raise 'Em Up" hypothetically would count as an extra spin for REU, even though the song is credited as being a Keith Urban song. I guess the logical answer would be "no," since it's basically like any artist covering someone else's single, but it'd just be a strange situation if an artist featured on a song performed the song by himself and this didn't count as a spin of the song. Admittedly I don't listen to Lon's countdown so I don't know how it goes, but are you saying that the co-host actually performs the song live when they tape the show with Lon? I was under the impression that they usually just played the co-host's song (the studio version) a 2nd time at some point during the show. I don't remember the exact reason that Keith couldn't be on the show, but I'm pretty sure he's going to be travelling with his wife, and of course he's been busy with American Idol as well. They usually play an previously recorded acoustic performance of the song early on in the countdown, then the studio version when they reach the co-host's song in the countdown.
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Post by myeverything on May 6, 2015 22:02:15 GMT -5
Keith is pretty much all but consumed with nothing but Idol for the next 2 weeks yet... it's finale time!! Can't wait until this song is an official #1 hit!!
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2015 7:26:10 GMT -5
Rises a spot to #56, a new peak in its 10th week on the Hot 100.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 9, 2015 13:21:52 GMT -5
It's pretty much guaranteed that "Raise 'Em Up" will be #1 on both charts this week, and that Columbia decided to ease off the gas pedal hoping for both charts next week. Keith and Eric have gained 565 spins and nearly 3.0 million in audience over the past six days, while Tyler has gained just 131 spins and about 1.4 million over the same amount of time.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 10, 2015 1:53:01 GMT -5
I'd expect this to hit #1 in two weeks, with a very slight chance of doing it next week, if Dierks is satisfied with a Billboard only #1 (assuming he makes it there on Monday). I don't think that's very likely though, and hitting #1 in two weeks seems like a much safer bet. This seems to be an accurate prediction...barring a disaster, this should top both charts this week. Pretty good for a fifth single. I would imagine that this is Keith's last single from Fuse, though I guess they could always send out "Good Thing" (since it was rumored to be a single earlier in the album's run). Either that or "Even The Stars Fall 4 U" wouldn't totally surprise me, but I would imagine that they are finished with this album.
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Post by myeverything on May 10, 2015 8:36:38 GMT -5
Yeah but while Keith's in the process of writing and recording new material for the album, it'll still be a long time before he's ready to release it. He usually takes 2 years in between albums and while we're already pushing more, I don't see it being anything earlier than a fall release. They're obviously not gonna want to go that long without a single on radio so I'm still thinking/hoping for one more yet. Yes, "Even The Stars Fall 4 U" could be released at this point but my favorite has always been "Good Thing" so still holding out hope that they finally release it as an official single. Being a 6th single who really knows how good it'll do but if any song is gonna make it, it'll be this one!
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on May 14, 2015 17:25:51 GMT -5
He performed "Even The Stars Fall 4 U on the American Idol finale. Maybe it will be the 6th single?
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on May 14, 2015 20:09:26 GMT -5
The song sounded good last night, but I hope if Keith does release another song off FUSE, it won't be ETSFFY. That's my least favorite song on FUSE.
I do love a song on FUSE Deluxe Version and that is GONNA BE GOOD. So I know that won't get released.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on May 14, 2015 20:52:23 GMT -5
I really hope they end the era with "Raise 'Em Up." The era has done quite well, but I don't think a sixth single is warranted here and the charts couldn't be more crowded right now. Fuse is also pretty old and the sales for both it and the last couple singles haven't been *that* great lately, so I would just move on if I were in Keith Urban's camp. They've also released the perfect set of singles; one of the most perfect eras single-wise I can think of in recent memory. The five they put out were literally the best tracks on the album, imo of course.
Plus even if he isn't that close to releasing new music, a little break in between eras wouldn't hurt. So many acts don't leave a lot of downtime now between projects, which is understandable to a degree, but it really backs up the charts when everyone is constantly trying to chart.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on May 14, 2015 21:20:18 GMT -5
Plus even if he isn't that close to releasing new music, a little break in between eras wouldn't hurt. So many acts don't leave a lot of downtime now between projects, which is understandable to a degree, but it really backs up the charts when everyone is constantly trying to chart. This. Everyone tries to stay current by releasing new singles almost immediately after their last era ended, and it's creates a huge clog on the charts. I think more people should go the route that Kenny Chesney and Zac Brown Band did, where they took a significant amount of time off, and when they came back radio seemed very eager to play both artists ("American Kids" and "Homegrown" are two of the bigger hits of the past year).
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 22:41:03 GMT -5
Plus even if he isn't that close to releasing new music, a little break in between eras wouldn't hurt. So many acts don't leave a lot of downtime now between projects, which is understandable to a degree, but it really backs up the charts when everyone is constantly trying to chart. This. Everyone tries to stay current by releasing new singles almost immediately after their last era ended, and it's creates a huge clog on the charts. I think more people should go the route that Kenny Chesney and Zac Brown Band did, where they took a significant amount of time off, and when they came back radio seemed very eager to play both artists ("American Kids" and "Homegrown" are two of the bigger hits of the past year). I agree with your post and also .indulgecountry's post, and yet, I also disagree to an extent, mainly when it comes to new artists. If new artists take too much time off between albums, then it's almost impossible for them to "get going" again...the problem, then, is that when new artists don't take a lot of time off between albums, the veteran artists start to worry that they're going to lose their 'place' at country radio if they don't keep up with all the newer artists. I mean, just look at artists like Josh Turner and Kip Moore...their momentum was crippled because they took too long between albums. And veteran artists like Faith Hill, Martina McBride, Rodney Atkins, etc. will probably never do well again at radio, because they took way too long off. If artists take too long of a break, they'll find that, by the time they're ready to make their comeback, dozens of new up-and-coming artists have taken their place on radio playlists. So I think it was a smart move for artists like Tyler Farr, Chris Young, Brett Eldredge, Thomas Rhett, and Randy Houser to release lead singles fairly quickly after the last single from their previous album. It's already working out very well for Brett and Thomas. Of course, if every artist on every record label only took 2-3 weeks off between albums, then the charts wouldn't move at all. In short, I do agree that it makes sense for some artists to take some time off, but for other artists it can be beneficial to release a lead single as quickly as possible to keep that momentum up. Country radio and the marketplace are a very big and complex animal, that's for sure. As for Keith, I think a 6th Fuse single would be a very bad idea. Quite frankly, I don't think there are any smash hits left on the album, and I think a 6th single would move up slowly and would ultimately break Keith's top 10 streak (33 consecutive top 10's now, and counting). Keith has already written a few tracks, he's got a few others on hold, and he may have even recorded a couple tracks already. And now with American Idol done, he'll have much more time to devote to the recording process. Also, Keith isn't doing a tour this year--he's got quite a few festivals on his schedule--but it's not a full-blown tour, and so he should have quite a bit of time in the next couple of months to really work on that next album. I'm optimistic that he'll come back with a lead single sometime this summer...if I had to guess right now I'd go with July, but that's just a guess and it's no better than anybody else's. I do think Keith wants a new album out by the end of the year, so if we assume an October or November release, that would mean a July or August release for the lead single.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on May 14, 2015 23:33:41 GMT -5
jhomes87 I agree that not every artist should take this route, and I certainly don't think anybody should take as long as Faith Hill or Martina McBride to put out new material. But I think for certain veteran artists who are already established big names (Specifically thinking of Blake Shelton, Keith Urban, Kenny Chesney, Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and a couple of others), a 4-6 month break is pretty optimal, in my opinion of course. Anything over a year is starting to be way too long, and like you said leaves the artist vulnerable to being forgotten about. But 4-6 months seems like a decent amount of downtime to start drawing up some buzz and interest. I will say though that Country seems to be the one genre where artists never really take breaks from the radio. It certainly doesn't happen with rock music (most wait at least a year there) and Pop music is pretty similar as well. Rap is definitely better to be more frequent with your work and not take long breaks, as it seems that genre has the shortest memory for it's artists.
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Post by myeverything on May 15, 2015 21:25:42 GMT -5
I'm all for Keith taking a small break now after reading these great posts. Even though we of course wanna hear him, I don't want anything to jeopardize Keith's streak he has on country radio. Like I said though, I'm okay with a SMALL break.. even 4-6 months seems too long to me.. I mean he needs to stay relevant too. Too long of a break certainly wouldn't be a good thing either. They've gotta try to find a happy medium between too long/not long enough to stay relevant but to still keep the buzz going.
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2015 23:06:49 GMT -5
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Post by myeverything on May 17, 2015 9:31:59 GMT -5
"Fifth and final"... Hope that's set in stone. Again, I cannot wait to start hearing his new music!!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 17, 2015 13:48:50 GMT -5
Good. It's time to stick a fork in Fuse. Keith Urban has yet to release a sixth single, so why start now. Four chart toppers and another top ten from Fuse is something to be proud of (cue Montgomery Gentry).
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Marv
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Post by Marv on May 17, 2015 16:24:34 GMT -5
I agree that another single from 'Fuse' wouldn't be a good idea; a new CD before year's end would be awesome in what is shaping up to be a phenomenal second half of the year releases of new CDs from format stalwarts including The Band Perry, George Strait, Thompson Square, hopefully Carrie Underwood and many others.
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