joey2002
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Joined: January 2009
Posts: 6,372
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Post by joey2002 on Jan 5, 2010 14:34:01 GMT -5
I'm leaving for Disney World tomorrow morning, so I don't know when the chart will next be updated. It will be updated by the 13th at the latest, but I might try to get in an update or two before then (the internet is $10/day at Disney, and I won't be in my room much). Hope you have a great vacation!
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 6, 2010 9:00:01 GMT -5
I will post the projections when I can when Rowdawg is on vacation. I have been keeping a spreadsheet for years, and one of the columns in the projected audience using the ratio formula that Rowdawg uses on his chart. Hopefully he hasn't copyrighted the ratio without me knowing it or I may be in big trouble when he returns.
I'll just list the projected positon along with the projected audience. I double-checked yesterday's spreadsheet with what was posted here, and all the numbers were the same - so I think I'm in good shape.
The number in parenthesis is the projected position from yesterday:
Projections (1/6/10): 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 33.199 2 (3). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 31.186 3 (2). Southern Voice - 31.143 4 (4). Need You Now - 30.19 5 (5). White Liar - 29.871 6 (6). The Truth - 28.525 7 (7). Do I - 25.811 8 (8). History in the Making - 25.374 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 24.052 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 22.64
11 (11). Eight Second Ride - 19.872 12 (12). Cryin' For Me - 18.897 13 (13). That's How Country Boys Roll - 18.649 --- (---). Red Light - 18.263 (projected loss of 1.839 million for the week and it should go recurrent) 14 (15). Til Summer Comes Around - 16.899 15 (14). Twang - 16.672 16 (17). Temporary Home - 15.744 17 (18). Hurry Home - 14.84 18 (19). Hillbilly Bone - 14.583 19 (16). A Little More Country Than That - 14.577 20 (21). Highway 20 Ride - 10.392
21 (20). Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 10.07 22 (22). Beer On The Table - 9.963 23 (23). Today - 8.925 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 7.995 25 (25). American Honey - 6.916 26 (27). Backwoods - 6.6 27 (26). Outside My Window - 6.333 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 5.392 29 (29). Gimmie That Girl - 4.852 30 (30). The Man I Want To Be - 4.598
31 (32). Fearless - 4.536 32 (31). It's Just That Way - 4.405 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.191 34 (34). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.859 35 (35). Love Like Crazy - 2.707 36 (37). Dancing in Circles - 2.55 37 (38). Hip To My Heart - 2.375 38 (36). There is a God - 2.273 39 (39). 19 and Crazy - 2.068 40 (40). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 1.978
41 (43). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 1.828 42 (47). Unstoppable - 1.752 43 (45). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.614 44 (42). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.506 45 (44). Everywhere I Go - 1.506 (just using BB's number from Monday) 46 (41). The Call - 1.505 47 (46). Love Lives On - 1.396 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.96 49 (49). One More Day - 0.625 (this is also BB's number from Monday) 50 (57). I Can't Make It Rain - 0.566
And the songs with the biggest gains on MB after the first 2 days: 1. White Liar - 0.739 2. The Truth - 0.653 3. American Honey - 0.58 4. Highway 20 Ride - 0.556 5. Fearless - 0.514 6. American Saturday Night - 0.503 7. Southern Voice - 0.395 8. Hillbilly Bone - 0.371 9. Beer On The Table - 0.24 10. A Little More Country Than That - 0.236 11. It's Just That Way - 0.227 12. Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 0.224 13. Cryin' For Me - 0.185 14. History in the Making - 0.157 15. Temporary Home - 0.146
The songs with the biggest losses after the first 2 days (all the numbers are negative): 1. Need You Now - 0.714 2. Consider Me Gone - 0.708 3. Do I - 0.643 4. Red Light - 0.593 5. Outside My Window - 0.217 6. Hip To My Heart - 0.137 7. 19 and Crazy - 0.113 8. Gimmie That Girl - 0.1 8 (tie). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.1 10. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.082 11. Today - 0.051 12. The Call - 0.041 13. Hell On The Heart - 0.037 14. Twang - 0.016 15. Keep On Lovin' You - 0.011
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 7, 2010 9:36:12 GMT -5
**Updated to include the songs in the 51-65 range** as Diego was nice enough to update the 51-100 MB thread today.
UPDATE For Thursday, January 7th:
Projections: 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 33.436 2 (2). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 31.071 3 (3). Southern Voice - 31.044 4 (4). Need You Now - 30.527 5 (5). White Liar - 29.654 6 (6). The Truth - 28.702 7 (7). Do I - 25.602 8 (8). History In The Making - 25.339 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 23.881 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 23.202
11 (11). Eight Second Ride - 19.383 12 (13). That's How Country Boys Roll - 19.2 13 (12). Cryin' For Me - 18.796 --- (---). Red Light - 17.689 14 (14). Til Summer Comes Around - 17.23 15 (15). Twang - 16.761 16 (16). Temporary Home - 16.32 17 (17). Hurry Home - 15.097 18 (18). Hillbilly Bone - 14.63 19 (19). A Little More Country Than That - 14.432 20 (20). Highway 20 Ride - 10.273
21 (21). Didn’t You Know How Much I Loved You - 9.721 22 (22). Beer On The Table - 9.516 23 (23). Today - 9.071 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 8.246 25 (25). American Honey - 6.742 26 (27). Outside My Window - 6.692 27 (26). Backwoods - 6.375 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 5.819 29 (29). Gimmie That Girl - 4.828 30 (31). Fearless - 4.686
31 (30). The Man I Want To Be - 4.498 32 (32). It's Just That Way - 4.338 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.235 34 (36). Dancing In Circles - 2.793 35 (34). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.755 36 (35). Love Like Crazy - 2.624 37 (37). Hip To My Heart - 2.458 38 (40). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 2.272 39 (39). 19 And Crazy - 2.099 40 (38). There Is A God - 2.087
41 (42). Unstoppable - 1.968 42 (41). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 1.88 43 (43). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.551 44 (46). The Call - 1.507 45 (44). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.433 46 (47). Love Lives On - 1.386 47 (45). Everywhere I Go - 1.006 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.849 49 (52). Smile - 0.719 50 (49). One More Day - 0.681
51 (50). I Can't Make It Rain - 0.558 52 (53). Jackson Hole - 0.555 53 (51). Look Who's Back In Love - 0.546 54 (---). This Is Our Time (Kenny Chesney) - 0.524 55 (57). Ala-Freakin-Bama - 0.483 56 (54). Over The Next Hill - 0.444 57 (---). Stay Here Forever (Jewel) - 0.391 58 (55). Pray For You - 0.389 59 (64). Mr. Goodtime (Colt Ford) - 0.357 60 (---). This Ain't Nothin' (Craig Morgan) - 0.308
61 (59). One More Drinkin' Song - 0.274 62 (62). Rain Is A Good Thing (Luke Bryan) - 0.272 63 (58). Seeing Stars - 0.236 64 (---). Wildfire (Bob Seger) - 0.232 65 (61). Days You Live For (Mica Roberts) - 0.228
The songs with the biggest gains on MB for the first 3 days: 1. The Truth - 1.065 2. White Liar - 1.066 3. Fearless - 0.857 4. American Honey - 0.793 5. Highway 20 Ride - 0.774 6. American Saturday Night - 0.684 7. Hillbilly Bone - 0.579 8. Southern Voice - 0.545 9. Temporary Home - 0.497 10. That's How Country Boys Roll - 0.408 11. Why Don't We Just Dance - 0.349 12. Unstoppable - 0.34 13. It's Just That Way - 0.306 14. A Little More Country Than That - 0.283 15. Hurry Home - 0.232
And the songs with the biggest losses (all are negative numbers): 1. Red Light - 1.167 2. Do I - 1.059 3. Consider Me Gone - 0.95 4. Need You Now - 0.918 5. Gimmie That Girl - 0.163 6. Hip To My Heart - 0.157 7. 19 and Crazy - 0.151 8. Outside My Window - 0.133 9. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.128 10. Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.12 11. There is a God - 0.082 12. I Gotta Get To You - 0.079 13. The Call - 0.06 14. Eight Second Ride - 0.037 15. Love Like Crazy - 0.005 15 (tie). Today - 0.005
Reba still looks to be holding on to her lead as she still has a 2.4 million cushion as she looks for week #4 on the top.
David Nail has the only song that is definitely going recurrent as he has lost more than 1.1 million in three days on MB.
The projections in the bottom range are usually a lot less accurate as the audience numbers are very small and it only takes a good day or two for one song to change the numbers. Still, it's a good barometer to use to try to guess what songs may make the chart next week.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jan 7, 2010 9:48:12 GMT -5
Thanks very much, northerncountry. I edited the thread title to reflect the fact that there are new updates on this page. I couldn't credit you in the thread title, though, because of space.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Jan 7, 2010 9:55:02 GMT -5
I enjoy the projections everyday so thanks for posting them.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 8, 2010 9:50:19 GMT -5
UPDATE for Friday, January 8th
Projections: 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 34.414 2 (2). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 32.084 3 (3). Southern Voice - 31.941 4 (4). Need You Now - 31.042 5 (5). White Liar - 30.519 6 (6). The Truth - 29.403 7 (8). History In The Making - 25.991 8 (7). Do I - 25.756 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 24.807 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 24.131
11 (11). Eight Second Ride - 19.789 12 (12). That's How Country Boys Roll - 19.725 13 (13). Cryin' For Me - 19.045 14 (14). Til Summer Comes Around - 17.776 --- (---). Red Light - 17.699 15 (15). Twang - 16.826 16 (16). Temporary Home - 16.692 17 (17). Hurry Home - 15.649 18 (18). Hillbilly Bone - 15.064 19 (19). A Little More Country Than That - 14.99 20 (20). Highway 20 Ride - 10.544
21 (21). Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 9.861 22 (22). Beer On The Table - 9.798 23 (23). Today - 9.303 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 8.218 25 (25). American Honey - 7.145 26 (26). Outside My Window - 6.671 27 (27). Backwoods - 6.584 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 6.287 29 (30). Fearless - 5.211 30 (29). Gimmie That Girl - 5.158
31 (31). The Man I Want To Be - 4.503 32 (32). It's Just That Way - 4.328 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.179 34 (34). Dancing In Circles - 2.879 35 (36). Love Like Crazy - 2.863 36 (35). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.826 37 (37). Hip To My Heart - 2.534 38 (39). 19 And Crazy - 2.28 39 (38). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 2.271 40 (40). There Is A God - 2.115
41 (41). Unstoppable - 2.103 42 (42). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 2.04 43 (44). The Call - 1.656 44 (43). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.612 45 (45). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.465 46 (46). Love Lives On - 1.387 47 (47). Everywhere I Go - 1.006 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.706
I will go back and expand it to the Top 60 when we receive the next update from Diego, which will probably be on Monday.
Looks like there may have been some year-end retrospectives last week on New Year's Eve as most of the higher-ranked songs had a nice increase in audience.
Here are the songs with the biggest MB gains for the first 4 days: 1. White Liar - 1.887 2. The Truth - 1.873 3. Fearless - 1.543 4. American Saturday Night - 1.514 5. Southern Voice - 1.297 6. American Honey - 1.294 7. Highway 20 Ride - 1.214 8. Why Don't We Just Dance - 1.069 9. Hillbilly Bone - 1.054 10. Temporary Home - 0.902 11. That's How Country Boys Roll - 0.88 12. A Little More Country Than That - 0.74 13. History In The Making - 0.712 14. Hurry Home - 0.669 15. I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 0.649
And the songs that have losses over the first 4 days (all #'s are negative): 1. Red Light - 1.55 2. Do I - 1.319 3. Need You Now - 0.912 4. Consider Me Gone - 0.651 5. Outside My Window - 0.192 6. Hip To My Heart - 0.151 7. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.095 8. There is a God - 0.089 9. Country Livin' - 0.07 10. 19 And Crazy - 0.057 11. Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.037
I'm not sure if I'll have a chance to provide an update both days over the weekend, but I'll try to get at least one more out before the final update on Monday morning.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 8, 2010 16:08:06 GMT -5
These numbers make Reba's chances to hold on for week 4 look pretty good. I suppose there will eventually be a country chart without Need You Now and Consider Me Gone, but right now it's hard to imagine that happening.
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Post by RobbyFlorida on Jan 8, 2010 16:45:46 GMT -5
These numbers make Reba's chances to hold on for week 4 look pretty good. I suppose there will eventually be a country chart without Need You Now and Consider Me Gone, but right now it's hard to imagine that happening. If Reba gets the 4th week does that tie Lady A and Reba for the highest # of weeks in 2010? rememeber even though Lady A has 5 weeks with "Need You Now" the first week was officially in the 2009 chart week before the chart year eneded back in December. So Reba and Lady A would have the first 8 weeks in 2010.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 8, 2010 17:46:33 GMT -5
These numbers make Reba's chances to hold on for week 4 look pretty good. I suppose there will eventually be a country chart without Need You Now and Consider Me Gone, but right now it's hard to imagine that happening. If Reba gets the 4th week does that tie Lady A and Reba for the highest # of weeks in 2010? rememeber even though Lady A has 5 weeks with "Need You Now" the first week was officially in the 2009 chart week before the chart year eneded back in December. So Reba and Lady A would have the first 8 weeks in 2010. Maybe it ties them, but only on a list that not too many people look at. I don't know who else tracks "weeks at #1 within a chart year but not counting other weeks at the top outside the year in question" but I admire the attentiveness with which you track Reba's remarkable run. We're coming up on 8 weeks into the chart year and only one song has ascended to #1 during this chart year. (How's that for a way to slice and dice the data?) Reba fans will surely miss this one when it's gone. Could very well be that we've already seen the top 2 songs of the 2010 chart year (although Billboard and MB won't see it that way).
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jan 8, 2010 22:55:20 GMT -5
If Reba gets the 4th week does that tie Lady A and Reba for the highest # of weeks in 2010? rememeber even though Lady A has 5 weeks with "Need You Now" the first week was officially in the 2009 chart week before the chart year eneded back in December. So Reba and Lady A would have the first 8 weeks in 2010. Maybe it ties them, but only on a list that not too many people look at. I don't know who else tracks "weeks at #1 within a chart year but not counting other weeks at the top outside the year in question" but I admire the attentiveness with which you track Reba's remarkable run. We're coming up on 8 weeks into the chart year and only one song has ascended to #1 during this chart year. (How's that for a way to slice and dice the data?) Reba fans will surely miss this one when it's gone. Could very well be that we've already seen the top 2 songs of the 2010 chart year (although Billboard and MB won't see it that way). With the way the chart has been the last few years, I can see that being a possibility (and how sweet that would be for both artists). However, I guess it could also be argued that longer runs at #1 is the new trend. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I'd be happy with "Consider Me Gone" and "Need You Now" as the top 2 songs of the year.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 9, 2010 12:42:04 GMT -5
UPDATE for Saturday, January 9th
Projections: 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 34.683 2 (2). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 32.643 3 (3). Southern Voice - 32.265 4 (4). Need You Now - 31.939 5 (5). White Liar - 31.08 6 (6). The Truth - 30.254 7 (8). Do I - 26.437 8 (7). History In The Making - 26.307 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 25.186 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 24.492 11 (12). That's How Country Boys Roll - 20.074 12 (11). Eight Second Ride - 19.985 13 (13). Cryin' For Me - 19.028 14 (14). Til Summer Comes Around - 17.838 --- (--). Red Light - 17.662 15 (16). Temporary Home - 17.017 16 (15). Twang - 16.838 17 (17). Hurry Home - 15.756 18 (18). Hillbilly Bone - 15.179 19 (19). A Little More Country Than That - 15.048 20 (20). Highway 20 Ride - 10.688 21 (21). Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 9.743 22 (22). Beer On The Table - 9.704 23 (23). Today - 9.395 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 8.113 25 (25). American Honey - 7.228 26 (27). Backwoods - 6.588 27 (26). Outside My Window - 6.475 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 6.371 29 (30). Gimmie That Girl - 5.251 30 (29). Fearless - 5.248 31 (31). The Man I Want To Be - 4.492 32 (32). It's Just That Way - 4.367 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.201 34 (36). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.706 35 (37). Hip To My Heart - 2.682 36 (35). Love Like Crazy - 2.631 37 (34). Dancing In Circles - 2.618 38 (39). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 2.366 39 (38). 19 And Crazy - 2.307 40 (41). Unstoppable - 2.164 41 (42). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 2.058 42 (40). There Is A God - 2.055 43 (44). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.558 44 (43). The Call - 1.546 45 (45). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.348 46 (46). Love Lives On - 1.25 47 (47). Everywhere I Go - 1.006 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.712
Another nice day for gains as there were less spins for the top songs last Friday on New Years Day. Reba still has a lead of 2 million with 2 days to go, and she looks very safe.
Here are the songs with the biggest gains for the first 5 days: 1. The Truth - 3.029 2. White Liar - 2.801 3. American Saturday Night - 2.2 4. Fearless - 1.964 5. Southern Voice - 1.878 6. American Honey - 1.679 7. Highway 20 Ride - 1.638 8. Why Don't We Just Dance - 1.63 9. Hillbilly Bone - 1.411 10. Temporary Home - 1.389 11. That's How Country Boys Roll - 1.379 12. I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 1.254 13. History In The Making - 1.144 14. A Little More Country Than That - 0.972 15. Hurry Home - 0.923
And here are the songs that have losses for this week (all numbers are negative): 1. Red Light - 1.967 2. Do I - 1.136 3. Need You Now - 1.025 4. Consider Me Gone - 0.602 5. Outside My Window - 0.416 6. There Is A God - 0.166 7. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.121 8. Country Livin' - 0.08 9. The Call - 0.063 10. Love Lives On - 0.056 11. Hip To My Heart - 0.046 12. 19 And Crazy - 0.044 13. Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.029 14. Love Like Crazy - 0.002
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 10, 2010 12:37:37 GMT -5
**Modifed to add Trace Adkins at #50 after All Access updated its top 50 and included Trace, James Wesley & Jonathan Singleton**
UPDATE for Sunday, January 10th
Projections: 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 34.646 2 (2). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 32.763 3 (3). Southern Voice - 32.443 4 (4). Need You Now - 31.103 5 (5). White Liar - 30.786 6 (6). The Truth - 30.073 7 (8). History In The Making - 26.488 8 (7). Do I - 26.346 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 25.203 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 24.794 11 (12). Eight Second Ride - 20.242 12 (11). That's How Country Boys Roll - 20.198 13 (13). Cryin' For Me - 19.25 14 (14). Til Summer Comes Around - 17.847 --- (--). Red Light - 17.582 15 (15). Temporary Home - 16.918 16 (16). Twang - 16.602 17 (17). Hurry Home - 15.95 18 (19). A Little More Country Thant That - 15.335 19 (18). Hillbilly Bone - 15.239 20 (20). Highway 20 Ride - 10.704 21 (21). Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 9.789 22 (23). Today - 9.593 23 (22). Beer On The Table - 9.482 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 8.223 25 (25). American Honey - 7.431 26 (26). Backwoods - 6.73 27 (27). Outside My Window - 6.604 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 6.368 29 (30). Fearless - 5.476 30 (29). Gimmie That Girl - 5.466 31 (31). The Man I Want To Be - 4.526 32 (32). It's Just That Way - 4.521 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.227 34 (35). Hip To My Heart - 2.783 35 (36). Love Like Crazy - 2.689 36 (37). Dancing In Circles - 2.682 37 (34). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.622 38 (39). 19 And Crazy - 2.372 39 (38). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 2.329 40 (40). Unstoppable - 2.117 41 (41). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 2.087 42 (42). There Is A God - 2.057 43 (43). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.637 44 (44). The Call - 1.498 45 (45). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.28 46 (46). Love Lives On - 1.231 47 (47). Everywhere I Go - 1.006 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.78 49 (50). I Can't Make It Rain - 0.698 50 (54). Ala-Freakin-Bama - 0.689
And here are the top gains on MB for the first 6 days: 1. The Truth - 3.459 2. White Liar - 3.083 3. American Saturday Night - 2.657 4. Fearless - 2.617 5. Southern Voice - 2.424 6. Why Don't We Just Dance - 2.25 7. American Honey - 2.193 8. Highway 20 Ride - 1.982 9. That's How Country Boys Roll - 1.774 10. Hillbilly Bone - 1.752 11. I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 1.618 12. Temporary Home - 1.571 13. History In The Making - 1.548 14. A Little More Country Than That - 1.445 15. Hurry Home - 1.297
And here are the songs that have lost audience in the first 6 days (all numbers are negative): 1. Red Light - 2.438 2. Do I - 1.446 3. Need You Now - 1.313 4. Consider Me Gone - 0.758 5. Outside My Window - 0.36 6. There Is A God - 0.197 7. The Call - 0.131 8. Twang - 0.12 9. Love Lives On - 0.09 10. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.075 11. How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 0.025 12. Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.001
Nobody's really making any gains on Reba, so she could coast to the finish line.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Jan 10, 2010 13:11:52 GMT -5
Thanks again for the update, countryhistorian. I especially like the top gainers and losers list.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 10, 2010 22:23:28 GMT -5
Thanks again for the update, countryhistorian. I especially like the top gainers and losers list. You're crediting the wrong poster.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Jan 10, 2010 23:05:00 GMT -5
My apologies to northerncountry. Thank you for your efforts.
While I'm at it, thank you too, countryhistorian for your other contributions to the board.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 11, 2010 9:25:39 GMT -5
UPDATE for Monday, January 11th
Final Projections: 1 (1). Consider Me Gone - 34.809 2 (2). I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 33.513 3 (3). Southern Voice - 32.996 4 (4). Need You Now - 31.28 5 (5). White Liar - 31.238 6 (6). The Truth - 30.526 7 (7). History In The Making - 29.96 8 (8). Do I - 26.859 9 (9). American Saturday Night - 25.256 10 (10). Why Don't We Just Dance - 25.171
11 (11). Eight Second Ride - 20.946 12 (12). That's How Country Boys Roll - 20.519 13 (13). Cryin' For Me - 19.596 14 (14). Til Summer Comes Around - 18.357 15 (15). Temporary Home - 17.487 16 (16). Twang - 17.281 17 (17). Hurry Home - 16.341 18 (18). A Little More Country Than That - 15.716 19 (19). Hillbilly Bone - 15.681 20 (20). Highway 20 Ride - 10.748
21 (21). Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 10.208 22 (22). Today - 10.108 23 (23). Beer On The Table - 9.998 24 (24). Keep On Lovin' You - 8.558 25 (25). American Honey - 7.5 26 (27). Outside My Window - 7.149 27 (26). Backwoods - 7.127 28 (28). Hell On The Heart - 6.712 29 (30). Gimmie That Girl - 5.955 30 (29). Fearless - 5.553
31 (31). The Man I Want To Be - 4.863 32 (32). It's Just That Way - 4.632 33 (33). Whistlin' Dixie - 3.498 34 (36). Dancing In Circles - 3.042 35 (34). Hip To My Heart - 2.914 36 (35). Love Like Crazy - 2.862 37 (37). How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 2.725 38 (38). 19 And Crazy - 2.603 39 (42). There Is A God - 2.384 40 (39). She Won't Be Lonely Long - 2.297
41 (40). Unstoppable - 2.218 42 (42). Oughta Be More Songs About That - 2.176 43 (43). Work Hard, Play Harder - 1.701 44 (44). The Call - 1.543 45 (46). Love Lives On - 1.261 46 (45). My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 1.238 47 (47). Everywhere I Go - 1.006 48 (48). Country Livin' - 0.718 49 (49). I Can't Make It Rain - 0.696 50 (51). One More Day - 0.663
51. Smile - Uncle Kracker - 0.652 52. Jackson Hole - James Wesley - 0.606 53. Look Who's Back In Love - Jonathan Singleton & The Grove - 0.589 54. Ala-Freakin-Bama -Trace Adkins - 0.582 55. This Is Our Moment - Kenny Chesney - 0.524 56. Over The Next Hill - Mac Powell & Brooks and Dunn - 0.438 57. Cold Beer - Colt Ford Featuring Jamey Johnson - 0.42 58. Pray For You - Jaron & The Long Road To Love - 0.403 59. I Gotta Get To You - George Strait - 0.334 60. Rain Is A Good Thing - Luke Bryan - 0.332
61. This Ain't Nothin' - Craig Morgan - 0.328 62. Mr. Goodtime - Colt Ford - 0.273 63. Stay Here Forever - Jewel - 0.27 64. Wrong Baby Wrong - Martina McBride - 0.268 65. One More Drinkin' Song - Jerrod Niemann - 0.248 66. Love Who You Love - Rascal Flatts - 0.247 67. Use Somebody - Margaret Durante - 0.225 68. Seeing Stars - Jack Ingram w/ Patti Griffin - 0.22 69. Wildfire - Bob Seger - 0.203 70. Days You Live For - Mica Roberts - 0.173
Here are the songs with the biggest MB gains for the week: 1. The Truth - 4.548 2. White Liar - 4.096 3. Southern Voice - 3.442 4. American Saturday Night - 3.16 5. Fearless - 3.156 6. Why Don't We Just Dance - 3.054 7. I Wanna Make You Close Your Eyes - 2.72 8. American Honey - 2.63 9. Hillbilly Bone - 2.546 10. Temporary Home - 2.474 11. That's How Country Boys Roll - 2.429 12. Highway 20 Ride - 2.364 13. History In The Making - 2.338 14. A Little More Country Than That - 2.119 15. Hurry Home - 1.959
And here are the songs that posted losses on MB for the week (all numbers are negative): 1. Red Light - 4.863 2. Need You Now - 1.344 3. Do I - 1.146 4. Consider Me Gone - 0.704 5. Country Livin' - 0.103 6. The Call - 0.092 7. I Can't Make It Rain - 0.091 8. Seeing Stars - 0.083 9. Days You Live For - 0.061 9 (tie). Love Lives On - 0.061 11. My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 0.04 12. One More Drinkin' Song - 0.038
It's been fun filling in for Rowdawg when he's been away, but it looks like he should be back tomorrow or Wednesday, so I will turn the reins back over to him.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 11, 2010 13:12:01 GMT -5
My apologies to northerncountry. Thank you for your efforts. While I'm at it, thank you too, countryhistorian for your other contributions to the board. Why you're welcome, but I will take credit any way I can get it! Unfortunately I do not get into estimating the audience impressions for the upcoming chart!
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 12, 2010 9:38:47 GMT -5
I think Rowdawg is back tomorrow, so I'll just put in the list of the top movers on MB today. I could list the projections, but they are usually way off base on Tuesday as there is only one days worth of data.
Here are the songs with the biggest gains on MB today: 1. Why Don't We Just Dance - 0.539 2. Fearless - 0.507 3. The Truth - 0.504 4. Unstoppable - 0.455 5. Hillbilly Bone - 0.39 6. That's How Country Boys Roll - 0.305 7. Highway 20 Ride - 0.297 8. American Honey - 0.262 9. Hell On The Heart - 0.254 10. Til Summer Comes Around - 0.221 11. Backwoods - 0.207 12. Cryin' For Me - 0.203 13. White Liar - 0.186 14. Southern Voice - 0.179 15. Temporary Home - 0.169
And the songs that lost audience on MB today (all numbers are negative): 1. Consider Me Gone - 0.947 2. Do I - 0.733 3. Need You Now - 0.423 4. Love Lives On - 0.182 5. How Far Do You Wanna Go? - 0.174 6. My Best Days Are Ahead Of Me - 0.081 7. Dancing In Circles - 0.074 8. Didn't You Know How Much I Loved You - 0.068 9. Oughta Be More Songs About That - 0.065 10. Whistlin' Dixie - 0.051 11. Look Who's Back In Love - 0.046 12. There Is A God - 0.032 13. It's Just That Way - 0.023 14. Chasin' Girls - 0.013 15. Keep On Lovin' You - 0.011 16. 19 And Crazy - 0.007
It was kind of strange that BB allowed Rodney Atkins to re-enter the chart at #51 this week. I had thought that Rodney would re-enter last week as he had a nice bullet gain because of the Christmas week and he would have ended up at #50 or #51 on the chart (he would have had the same audience as Houston County who ended up at #50), but this week Rodney had no bullet and lost 130,000 in audience and also lost 14 spins. I have a feeling someone from Curb called BB and told them that they weren't finished promoting the song, and that they should give it another chance.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jan 13, 2010 14:42:19 GMT -5
I think Rowdawg is back tomorrow, so I'll just put in the list of the top movers on MB today. Thanks for filling in for me. Feel free to contribute to this thread anytime (that goes for everyone else too).
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 13, 2010 14:49:29 GMT -5
No problem - I enjoyed it. Hopefully you had a nice, relaxing vacation.
Just one question on the updated spreadsheet. The last column seems to show only the projected BB gain/loss for the first 2 days. Didn't this use to show the projected BB gain/loss for the entire week?
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jan 13, 2010 15:04:43 GMT -5
No problem - I enjoyed it. Hopefully you had a nice, relaxing vacation. Just one question on the updated spreadsheet. The last column seems to show only the projected BB gain/loss for the first 2 days. Didn't this use to show the projected BB gain/loss for the entire week? Nope, that column has always shown the projected gain/loss for the data available for the week. I do have a column that shows the gains/losses for the entire week, but it's outside what I can screen shot.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 13, 2010 15:43:41 GMT -5
No problem - I enjoyed it. Hopefully you had a nice, relaxing vacation. Just one question on the updated spreadsheet. The last column seems to show only the projected BB gain/loss for the first 2 days. Didn't this use to show the projected BB gain/loss for the entire week? Nope, that column has always shown the projected gain/loss for the data available for the week. I do have a column that shows the gains/losses for the entire week, but it's outside what I can screen shot. Is that also true for the projected BB audience column? The reason I'm asking is that I thought I compared that column last Tuesday to what I had on my spreadsheet for the projection for the end of the week and all the numbers matched - but today the audience seems to be the the BB Monday number minus the projected BB gain/loss in the last column, which is only the first 2 days. Maybe I'm just confused (it's happened before). Edit: I actually do have a column on my spreadsheet which shows the adjusted figures for BB for the WTD audience, so maybe I matched it up against that column in my spreadsheet as they do match your projection column from yesterday. If that's true, then my updates weren't really giving the same data that you would have given on your spreadsheet. Hopefully I didn't confuse everybody.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jan 18, 2010 16:02:36 GMT -5
It looks like some stations have been added to the Mediabase panel. Almost all songs had gains in audience today, and the songs that are dropping (Reba/Lady A/Luke) had small losses.
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 18, 2010 16:06:02 GMT -5
It looks like some stations have been added to the Mediabase panel. Almost all songs had gains in audience today, and the songs that are dropping (Reba/Lady A/Luke) had small losses. I think this may be because Bob Kingsley ran his top songs of the decade countdown last Sunday, so all of the songs in his regular Top 40 coundown show this Sunday had a big gain in audience. This would also explain why Reba, Lady A and Luke had small losses. Any idea if the BCU will be coming out tonight? I know Country Aircheck said that they would publish on Tuesday instead of Monday, but I don't recall Billboard saying anything last week.
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rowdawg21
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Joined: April 2005
Posts: 6,127
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jan 18, 2010 16:12:03 GMT -5
It looks like some stations have been added to the Mediabase panel. Almost all songs had gains in audience today, and the songs that are dropping (Reba/Lady A/Luke) had small losses. I think this may be because Bob Kingsley ran his top songs of the decade countdown last Sunday, so all of the songs in his regular Top 40 coundown show this Sunday had a big gain in audience. This would also explain why Reba, Lady A and Luke had small losses. Any idea if the BCU will be coming out tonight? I know Country Aircheck said that they would publish on Tuesday instead of Monday, but I don't recall Billboard saying anything last week. Oh, thanks for the info. I don't really listen to the radio, so I wouldn't know. The chart highlights are out now, so maybe we'll be getting the BCU too.
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Jan 19, 2010 16:16:23 GMT -5
Is the Billboard Country Update out yet????
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Post by northerncountry on Jan 19, 2010 16:32:18 GMT -5
No, it looks like it was delayed a day due to the holiday on Monday. I thought we might get it during the day, but it looks like it won't be out until this evening.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Jan 19, 2010 22:26:01 GMT -5
I received my BCU but is won't open. I tried with two browsers. There is a problem.
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Post by RobbyFlorida on Feb 7, 2010 14:36:12 GMT -5
can someone please explain to me how two predictions with close mediabase audiences this week and were next to each other last week on BB be so far apart on Billboard this week?
LW 51 Tim McGraw TW MB 2.625 Proj. BB 2.257 LW 50 Reba TW MB 2.524 Proj. BB 0.991
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Post by northerncountry on Feb 7, 2010 22:21:03 GMT -5
can someone please explain to me how two predictions with close mediabase audiences this week and were next to each other last week on BB be so far apart on Billboard this week? LW 51 Tim McGraw TW MB 2.625 Proj. BB 2.257 LW 50 Reba TW MB 2.524 Proj. BB 0.991 The reason is that last Monday on MB, Reba had an audience of 1.892 and Tim had an audience of 0.792. On BB, Reba's audience was 0.743 and Tim's was 0.681, so you can see Reba was doing a lot better on MB than on BB. So if they both kept the same radio stations as last week, Tim's number should be a lot better than Reba's as he gained 1.833 million on MB this week while Reba's only gained 0.633 in audience. That should translate into a much bigger gain on BB for Tim than Reba moving him up the chart more quickly. Of course, if Tim's gain came on stations that aren't part of the BB panel, he might not move as far ahead as Reba as is suggested by the projections.
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