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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2016 9:35:27 GMT -5
I'm getting concerned now that this song won't be climbing much higher. Jon's bullet is only 94, which isn't a good sign since usually songs gaining in the Top 10 should at least be in the 200s to 300s bullet wise. Also the pass two days Jon has lost close to 300k in audience.
With the album finally out and the near stand still of gains for the Top 10, I think "Head Over Boots" might be nearing the end.
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jun 30, 2016 0:17:06 GMT -5
I'm getting concerned now that this song won't be climbing much higher. Jon's bullet is only 94, which isn't a good sign since usually songs gaining in the Top 10 should at least be in the 200s to 300s bullet wise. Also the pass two days Jon has lost close to 300k in audience. With the album finally out and the near stand still of gains for the Top 10, I think "Head Over Boots" might be nearing the end. I feel like he could still go #1... I think "Head Over Boots" is just having a slow week, but we shall find out as the week progresses!
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 30, 2016 0:37:29 GMT -5
It's hard for me to believe this is just breaking into the Top 10. This is absolutely inescapable on the radio right now and has been for weeks. I feel like if I were a casual radio listener and didn't know better, I'd feel like this is wrapping up a third week at #1 or something, lol. I swear I'm hearing it more than literally anything at radio right now... Between that and the fantastic digital sales this has continued to maintain, I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get this one to #1 (I just can't imagine this one peaking lower than like Top 3 at worst-case, honestly).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2016 5:43:51 GMT -5
It's hard for me to believe this is just breaking into the Top 10. This is absolutely inescapable on the radio right now and has been for weeks. I feel like if I were a casual radio listener and didn't know better, I'd feel like this is wrapping up a third week at #1 or something, lol. I swear I'm hearing it more than literally anything at radio right now... Between that and the fantastic digital sales this has continued to maintain, I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get this one to #1 (I just can't imagine this one peaking lower than like Top 3 at worst-case, honestly). But like you said, to the unsuspecting listener it already feels like number 1. Pushing this song beyond where it is now is just arbitrary and superficial. That's when labels start doing more harm than good. Literally the only people who care about where a song peaked once it gets in the top 10 are the promo teams who can then use that number on future ads. The public doesn't care. And we're the ones with the cash. This song did it's job and then some. It got the album out, was certified gold, got Jon a top 10 on MB and both BB charts, and helped his album debut at #1. Why keep pushing it? I'm sure Jon is thrilled but I don't think he cares as much about the peak. I have to imagine the label moves on in the next couple weeks.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 30, 2016 12:19:44 GMT -5
It's hard for me to believe this is just breaking into the Top 10. This is absolutely inescapable on the radio right now and has been for weeks. I feel like if I were a casual radio listener and didn't know better, I'd feel like this is wrapping up a third week at #1 or something, lol. I swear I'm hearing it more than literally anything at radio right now... Between that and the fantastic digital sales this has continued to maintain, I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get this one to #1 (I just can't imagine this one peaking lower than like Top 3 at worst-case, honestly). But like you said, to the unsuspecting listener it already feels like number 1. Pushing this song beyond where it is now is just arbitrary and superficial. That's when labels start doing more harm than good. Literally the only people who care about where a song peaked once it gets in the top 10 are the promo teams who can then use that number on future ads. The public doesn't care. And we're the ones with the cash. This song did it's job and then some. It got the album out, was certified gold, got Jon a top 10 on MB and both BB charts, and helped his album debut at #1. Why keep pushing it? I'm sure Jon is thrilled but I don't think he cares as much about the peak. I have to imagine the label moves on in the next couple weeks. I don't know why anyone wouldn't want to see them keep pushing it. The longer it stays in the Top 10 and gets this level of airplay (or increases, since it does have room to grow even if it feels like it's everywhere), the more it continues to be propped up for more people to hear it and in turn by it and/or the album. It's done well, sure, but it can still do better yet, AND it would be a huge victory for this guy to get his first #1 hit. I'm not even really a fan, but I think it would awesome to see something this traditional-leaning hit the top of the charts. I see no harm done in trying to push this to the top, whether it ultimately gets there or not. His label would be dumb to just drop it now, imo, unless it was meeting ridiculous opposition from radio like we saw with "My Church."
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2016 12:22:31 GMT -5
I think the label should still push this, if the gains don't start stalling out completely. If the gains start to really flatline, then I hope the label recognizes that country radio won't push this any higher.
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Post by straitouttanashville on Jul 7, 2016 14:30:16 GMT -5
But like you said, to the unsuspecting listener it already feels like number 1. Pushing this song beyond where it is now is just arbitrary and superficial. That's when labels start doing more harm than good. Literally the only people who care about where a song peaked once it gets in the top 10 are the promo teams who can then use that number on future ads. The public doesn't care. And we're the ones with the cash. This song did it's job and then some. It got the album out, was certified gold, got Jon a top 10 on MB and both BB charts, and helped his album debut at #1. Why keep pushing it? I'm sure Jon is thrilled but I don't think he cares as much about the peak. I have to imagine the label moves on in the next couple weeks. I don't know why anyone wouldn't want to see them keep pushing it. The longer it stays in the Top 10 and gets this level of airplay (or increases, since it does have room to grow even if it feels like it's everywhere), the more it continues to be propped up for more people to hear it and in turn by it and/or the album. It's done well, sure, but it can still do better yet, AND it would be a huge victory for this guy to get his first #1 hit. I'm not even really a fan, but I think it would awesome to see something this traditional-leaning hit the top of the charts. I see no harm done in trying to push this to the top, whether it ultimately gets there or not. His label would be dumb to just drop it now, imo, unless it was meeting ridiculous opposition from radio like we saw with "My Church." Agree 100%. Push this to number 1, I love Jon Pardi and "HOB"
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Post by straitouttanashville on Jul 8, 2016 1:05:36 GMT -5
Sorry for the double post but I had to say one last thing. There are some popular artists in Country Music that number 1 singles don't seem to matter much or impact at all. Eric Church and Chris Stapleton come to mind. To a guy like Jon Pardi a number 1 single can literally make or break a career. I would honestly think the label would do whatever it takes to get this to number 1. From now forward a number 1 could give Pardi more commercial appeal. As far as Country Music and Radio goes it's nice to have a more traditional song top the charts. It could have maybe have some affect on what artists send to radio going forward, or at least I am hoping.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2016 8:10:31 GMT -5
It definitely would help, but I think a lot of us here (myself included, because we watch the charts all the time) put too much weight into where a song peaks. As I've always said: the overwhelming vast majority of listeners and buyers have absolutely no idea where songs are on the charts or where they peak.
Further, a lot of artists can "break out" without a #1. Sure, it helps. But think: Luke Bryan really broke out with "Do I" (#2) and perhaps his most memorable song is "Country Girl" (#4). Tim McGraw broke out with "Indian Outlaw" (#8). Although she had a hit before ("Kerosene"), Miranda Lambert is well-known for early hits "Gunpowder and Lead" (#7) and "White Liar" (#2). Little Big Town's most played song is undoubtedly still "Boondocks" (#9).
Radio and promotion teams also put way too much weight in the numbers. Nobody really cares outside those circles.
Would it help to push this more in order to get more listeners, more buyers, and more fans (and in turn maybe a #1)? Sure. But I think it's a fine line between that and getting the next single out while the album release is still creating fresh buzz. You also don't want to make the hit unnaturally big where radio then continues to play the crap out of it as a recurrent and essentially gives the cold shoulder to the next song ("Kiss You in The Morning", "Love You Like That").
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jul 8, 2016 11:08:43 GMT -5
Let this go top 5 and then drop it. Singles following 50 week chart runs tend to flop, and I don't want Jon to risk that. Get top 5, drop out while "H.O.L.Y." dominates and then get "Cowboy Hat" out ASAP.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2016 11:48:01 GMT -5
Let this go top 5 and then drop it. Singles following 50 week chart runs tend to flop, and I don't want Jon to risk that. Get top 5, drop out while "H.O.L.Y." dominates and then get "Cowboy Hat" out ASAP. I think they will still push this too the top. Sure the song is really old, but it's still testing and selling well enough. I do think however regardless Jon Pardi's next single selection is crucial. We've seen plenty of Top 5s have the followup be a complete dud ("Mayday", "Said No One Ever", "Song Number 7", "Hole In A Bottle", "Yup", "This Ain't No Drunk Dial", and "Drinking Town With A Football Problem" all come to mind) hopefully Jon manages to score on the other end of the spectrum ("Hell Of A Night", "Dibs", "Close Your Eyes", "Snapback", "Sunshine & Whiskey", and "Fly" all managed top 10 peaks which usually indicates at least a minor hit single.) Regardless it'll be a long chart climb no matter what song they choose. But I think "Head Over Boots" can still make it to #1, as they have already made it too far to give up in the next few weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2016 10:58:26 GMT -5
Jon's website has a little feature video of "Night Shift" where he discusses the song and there is a small clip of what looks like it may be a scene from a music video, but it is hard to tell.
That song is one of the most popular on Spotify and iTunes despite not being one of the preorder early releases. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the next single.
They really couldn't go wrong picking "Night Shift", "Cowboy Hat", "Dirt on My Boots", or "Can't Turn You Down" as the next one since I think any of those would appeal to all fans, traditional or modern.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 10, 2016 17:16:00 GMT -5
I heard "Cowboy Hat" on The Highway's "On The Horizon" show today.
Usually a sign of the next single but it could be the label and The Highway testing the track out and see how the response is from the airplay.
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robenglund
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Post by robenglund on Jul 10, 2016 17:31:11 GMT -5
I heard "Cowboy Hat" on The Highway's "On The Horizon" show today. Usually a sign of the next single but it could be the label and The Highway testing the track out and see how the response is from the airplay. "Cowboy Hat" and also "Night Shift" are both smashes waiting waiting to happen. Either or would be a great single.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jul 10, 2016 20:52:11 GMT -5
"Cowboy Hat" just makes too much sense IMO. Lyrically, it fits in exactly with what country radio likes to play, and will match the demographic well. It also still has the dance type of song feel to it, like something you could expect to hear line dancing or something. And it just sounds great, very nice touch of traditional elements and instruments with the perfect mix of today's new sound. Also, an electric guitar in there briefly to "modernize" it. The chorus is catchy as hell too.
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jdbowman
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Post by jdbowman on Jul 10, 2016 21:12:54 GMT -5
this new album is fantastic. Love Cowboy Hat and Can't Turn You Down, I really, really hope the latter gets released at some point.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2016 13:01:57 GMT -5
Jon Pardi has UMG Nashville's full support. UMG Chairman/CEO Mike Dungan had a lot of praise for Jon in this interview with Hits Daily Double, and UMG President Cindy Mabe also offered up some quotes: Source: hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301878I highly doubt that California Sunrise will go Platinum (even Gold will be a stretch), because even some of the biggest names struggle to reach 500k and 1 million these days. BUT, it's great to read comments like this. It shows that the label views Jon as one of their most promising up-and-comers. FYI, "Head Over Boots" is up to 450,000 in total sales, and some of the comments from Dungan and Mabe have me believing that UMG will try to get it all the way to #1. I don't think they're gonna say "Oh, it's top 5, we can move on to single #2 now". It definitely sounds like they want it to go #1 and believe that it should be a #1 hit. They didn't explicitly say so...but Dungan especially implied that he prefers to work hit records as long as possible. So I fully expect Capitol to stick with this one as long as radio is willing to continue increasing its airplay.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 11, 2016 13:33:10 GMT -5
Jon Pardi has UMG Nashville's full support. UMG Chairman/CEO Mike Dungan had a lot of praise for Jon in this interview with Hits Daily Double, and UMG President Cindy Mabe also offered up some quotes: FYI, "Head Over Boots" is up to 450,000 in total sales, and some of the comments from Dungan and Mabe have me believing that UMG will try to get it all the way to #1. I don't think they're gonna say "Oh, it's top 5, we can move on to single #2 now". It definitely sounds like they want it to go #1 and believe that it should be a #1 hit. They didn't explicitly say so...but Dungan especially implied that he prefers to work hit records as long as possible. So I fully expect Capitol to stick with this one as long as radio is willing to continue increasing its airplay. Exactly. I've been saying this on twitter for the past few weeks. They're going for #1, as long as radio lets them. It's an opportunity for them and radio to congratulate themselves on achieving a #1 single (Mediabase and/or Billboard). It'll be a hard go since its an old song and some station have been spinning it since October of 2015 but they'll try a #1 push soon. I also don't think it will do any harm to Jon's next single. Radio has given all his singles a fighting chance and his momentum is fine after "Head Over Boots."
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jul 11, 2016 14:48:41 GMT -5
Must say since it was mentioned in that interview, but when I saw Jon a few weeks ago, it was most certainly at a rowdy country bar with the average age of I'd say 20-35 years old. No grandpa's and no grandma's.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2016 14:52:36 GMT -5
That makes me so pumped to read that. This album is definitely more "toned" than his first.
Can't wait to see what they can do with Jon.
The chart runs will be long but if Capitol can flex their muscles, maybe it will help. I actually think the second single (likely "Cowboy Hat" it seems) could climb faster than "Head Over Boots").
For them to say that they think this album could be platinum means they have big plans for promotion.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2016 11:30:17 GMT -5
The label needs to move on from this song.
Jon has lost about 410k the past 3 days in updates and Jon only has a bullet of 20, which is down embarrassing for a song in the Top 10. I think radio is getting about ready to drop this song if the gains (or lack of in this case) also it won't be long before Dan + Shay and Jake Owen catch up to Jon.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 18, 2016 20:55:28 GMT -5
Buzz Brainard basically confirmed this past weekend on The Highway's "On The Horizon" show that "Cowboy Hat" would be Jon's next single. He also said he couldn't wait for the music video Jon made for it. Thanks to robenglund for reminding me about this. lol
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2016 21:03:16 GMT -5
Can't wait for "Cowboy Hat". The release schedule is brutal and I expect "Head Over Boots" to have some pretty solid recurrent play, but something deep down inside me expects that one to be a big hit. Especially with the way the label was talking about Jon.
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Post by The Brazilian Guy π§π· on Jul 18, 2016 21:20:57 GMT -5
Can't wait for Cowboy Hat either! His album has so many good single options, but Cowboy Hat is incredibly catchy and should be a big hit for him. Now I'm curious about the video LOL
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jul 18, 2016 21:35:59 GMT -5
For the record, Jon hasn't made a music video for it yet. Buzz was just pondering out loud on air what direction they would go with it. :)
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robenglund
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Post by robenglund on Jul 18, 2016 21:38:34 GMT -5
I'm going to be pissed if the radio version of "Cowboy Hat" gets the "Are You With Me" treatment as in get rid of the steel guitar solo. My gut tells me the steel will stay since the song is already very tempo.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jul 18, 2016 21:59:09 GMT -5
"Cowboy Hat" is easily the second best selling song from the album on iTunes. Don't know about its current Spotify Streaming numbers, but iTunes sales is always a good sign.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 0:02:13 GMT -5
As I (and others) expected, Capitol Nashville will be going for #1 with this. From AllAccess: The week of August 7-14 will be Jon's "max spins" week. The label needs to move on from this song. Jon has lost about 410k the past 3 days in updates and Jon only has a bullet of 20, which is down embarrassing for a song in the Top 10. I think radio is getting about ready to drop this song if the gains (or lack of in this case) also it won't be long before Dan + Shay and Jake Owen catch up to Jon. Jon certainly had a few rough updates last week, but here's the thing: no label wants to let go of a hit song right now, because if they do, then that artist suddenly isn't in the spotlight anymore, AND there's a really high chance that the artist's next single will get lost in the shuffle. The release schedule is too crowded right now...it'll be a long time before Jon is back in the top 20 again. So it makes a lot of sense that they would push this as long as possible and wait until September to release Jon's next single. The labels have all been shockingly slow to realize that the release schedule the last few weeks (and in the next few weeks) has been/will be detrimental to nearly all artists unless their name is Luke, Carrie, Kenny, Jason, etc. Only A-listers and a select few hot newcomers are pushing through...the door is basically shut for everyone else, including people like Easton Corbin, Parmalee, Maddie & Tae, Clare Dunn, Cassadee Pope, Gary Allan, Joe Nichols, The Cadillac Three, Mickey Guyton, Chase Bryant, Lauren Alaina, Dylan Scott, Randy Houser, Chase Rice, Jana Kramer, Eric Paslay, and Trace Adkins, among others. Radio has too many new songs on their plate, and even if they wanted to add all of these new songs (and they probably do, because radio likes to support as many artists as possible), there's simply not enough room on their playlists. Anyway, I'm not 100% sure that "Head Over Boots" will be able to top the charts, but I think Jon has a pretty good chance, as he's far enough ahead of Jake Owen, Dan + Shay, Sam Hunt, and Kelsea Ballerini. Capitol is definitely going to try, though. Maybe this will end up peaking at #2 or #3, or it could end up as a Mediabase-only #1, but I think its chances of going to #1 on Billboard are just as high, if not higher. This has been a big seller and a big breakthrough hit for Jon and it's more than worthy of a #1 peak.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Jul 21, 2016 0:06:20 GMT -5
I thought they would push for a top 5 peak on both charts this week and then let go, but if it's able to get to #1, I won't complain. Now, go block Chris Lane!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 5:54:15 GMT -5
As I (and others) expected, Capitol Nashville will be going for #1 with this. From AllAccess: The week of August 7-14 will be Jon's "max spins" week. The label needs to move on from this song. Jon has lost about 410k the past 3 days in updates and Jon only has a bullet of 20, which is down embarrassing for a song in the Top 10. I think radio is getting about ready to drop this song if the gains (or lack of in this case) also it won't be long before Dan + Shay and Jake Owen catch up to Jon. Jon certainly had a few rough updates last week, but here's the thing: no label wants to let go of a hit song right now, because if they do, then that artist suddenly isn't in the spotlight anymore, AND there's a really high chance that the artist's next single will get lost in the shuffle. The release schedule is too crowded right now...it'll be a long time before Jon is back in the top 20 again. So it makes a lot of sense that they would push this as long as possible and wait until September to release Jon's next single. The labels have all been shockingly slow to realize that the release schedule the last few weeks (and in the next few weeks) has been/will be detrimental to nearly all artists unless their name is Luke, Carrie, Kenny, Jason, etc. Only A-listers and a select few hot newcomers are pushing through...the door is basically shut for everyone else, including people like Easton Corbin, Parmalee, Maddie & Tae, Clare Dunn, Cassadee Pope, Gary Allan, Joe Nichols, The Cadillac Three, Mickey Guyton, Chase Bryant, Lauren Alaina, Dylan Scott, Randy Houser, Chase Rice, Jana Kramer, Eric Paslay, and Trace Adkins, among others. Radio has too many new songs on their plate, and even if they wanted to add all of these new songs (and they probably do, because radio likes to support as many artists as possible), there's simply not enough room on their playlists. Anyway, I'm not 100% sure that "Head Over Boots" will be able to top the charts, but I think Jon has a pretty good chance, as he's far enough ahead of Jake Owen, Dan + Shay, Sam Hunt, and Kelsea Ballerini. Capitol is definitely going to try, though. Maybe this will end up peaking at #2 or #3, or it could end up as a Mediabase-only #1, but I think its chances of going to #1 on Billboard are just as high, if not higher. This has been a big seller and a big breakthrough hit for Jon and it's more than worthy of a #1 peak. Ok, just usually having that low of a bullet in the Top 10 is never a good sign for a song, no matter what. I remain unconvinced, especially if Jon is going for #1 the week of August 7th to 14th. "Head Over Boots" is a little over 7 million in MB audience behind Chris Lane. Assuming FGL and Eric Church each get a single week at the top (I still don't see it and I still remain convinced Big Machine will keep "H.O.L.Y" at the top as long as possible as I think FGL will host 6/7 as this is Jon's first hit and CCUSA tends to wait til an artist has at least a single Top 5 single, and Jon Pardi has "Up All Night" that peaked at #11. Now there is obviously exceptions like Old Dominion but since those guys have wrote hit singles for other artists. Meanwhile FGL has an album coming out real soon a Top 5 smash hit that's been the biggest country hit since "Die A Happy Man") Jon Pardi would have to shrink that big of a gap between him and Chris Lane and well the opposite is happening. Chris Lane has gained about a million in MB audience the past 3 days while Jon Pardi has gained 570k in audience so Chris Lane is continuing to widen the gap. I genuinely believe we are going to see one of the three out of Chris Lane, Eric Church, and Jon Pardi miss the top. For me, Eric Church and Jon Pardi seem to be the ones most likely. Chris Lane has been gaining too much for me to think he will miss the top. Also on your whole fact on if the label gives up then it'll be a long time before Jon is back in the Top 20. While yes that is true, when artists like David Nail, Kip Moore, Jon Pardi and Frankie Ballard (Frankie and David are done) take up chart space when all move at near snail pace and refuse to give up, that's why we have as many chart casualties as we do, Craig Morgan just gave up. Joe Nichols is at a near stand still with "Undone". Mickey Guyton and Cassadee Pope couldn't even score a single add this past week. Six songs below the Top 40 on BB chart ended up losing their bullet (Josh Turner, Maddie & Tae, Clare Dunn, Thompson Square, Parmalee, and Eli Young Band) and the reason is not enough songs are throwing the white flag when they should. Jordan Rager, Brandy Clark, and Drew Baldridge are all recurrent on BB and yet all songs are hanging on for dear life on MB trying to stay afloat. We only have one recurrent on MB and we are getting a Brantley Gilbert iHeartMedia debut tomorrow apparentley which only further hurts the chart as we have not 1 but 2 iHeartMedia debuts this week so more than likely acts like Easton Corbin, Craig Campbell and Runaway June are going to see a setback in positions this week as Luke Bryan also has "Move" racing up the chart. Billboard seems to only have one to two recurrent this week ("Nights On Fire" and maybe "Wasted Time" if Kelsea Ballerini can get more spins than Keith Urban) so at best Brantley Gilbert and Miranda Lambert cancel out David Nail and Keith Urban, which will leave a lot of songs in the 40s and 50s stagnant as they'll have to pass each other to have a chance of setting new peak positions. Sorry for going on that little rant. Just so many songs doing barely anything in The 40s and 50s and I doubt many of them become hits unfortunately.
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