dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,031
|
Post by dm2081 on Jul 21, 2016 11:25:48 GMT -5
^Yes but Jon's label isn't going to operate based on the interests of other labels and artists. Their main concern is supporting the artists on THEIR roster. They couldn't give two shits about clogging up the charts for others, as long as their roster is maximizing their potential. It's just how the real world works.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Jul 21, 2016 11:29:53 GMT -5
I like Jon's chances for at least a Mediabase #1. Look at the numbers gap from "Head Over Boots" right now -- 570 spins and 7.0 million separate Jon from Chris Lane and 700 spins separate Jon from Dan + Shay.
Capitol Nashville's entire team knows the pulse of programmers around the Country and I'm sure those programmers have gave this promotion team the assumption that Jon can have those plethora of overnight spins his push week, especially considering the pecking order that has developed in front of and behind "Head Over Boots." Its always radio willing to let a label push for the top and while I'm sure some early believers are a bit skiddish on this lasting another 3-4 weeks, they know the situation and know the end is near.
It was always obvious to me that they would try for #1 since this song has been such a big hit and the fact they only needed one more "Power Up" to get into striking distance, even when this song was having a rough go at it inside the top 10.
I also agree that waiting for September to release Jon's next single will help him considerably.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 11:53:46 GMT -5
^Yes but Jon's label isn't going to operate based on the interests of other labels and artists. Their main concern is supporting the artists on THEIR roster. They couldn't give two shits about clogging up the charts for others, as long as their roster is maximizing their potential. It's just how the real world works. True. I think my post is more focused on songs like "Running For You" that should've been gone by now (imo). But last week was when I noticed Jon Pardi was hardly gaining anything and when you are in the 5-8 range having a bullet in the double digits is not a good sign at all as it hints radio is about done with your song and the peak is now becoming more inflated ("Baby Be My Love Song" being a prime example as that songs natural peak was in the teens). It ultimately doesn't matter as Chris Lane is pulling further and further away, and is only increasing his lead on Jon Pardi. 2 chart weeks from now Jon Pardi begins going for Max Spins, but Chris Lane is way too far ahead and is only pulling further away. He's a full 6 million in audience ahead of Jon Pardi on MB and BB is a little over 5 million. I honestly believe they should have scheduled Jon's push week one week later.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 13:49:38 GMT -5
Also on your whole fact on if the label gives up then it'll be a long time before Jon is back in the Top 20. While yes that is true, when artists like David Nail, Kip Moore, Jon Pardi and Frankie Ballard (Frankie and David are done) take up chart space when all move at near snail pace and refuse to give up, that's why we have as many chart casualties as we do, Craig Morgan just gave up. Joe Nichols is at a near stand still with "Undone". Mickey Guyton and Cassadee Pope couldn't even score a single add this past week. Six songs below the Top 40 on BB chart ended up losing their bullet (Josh Turner, Maddie & Tae, Clare Dunn, Thompson Square, Parmalee, and Eli Young Band) and the reason is not enough songs are throwing the white flag when they should. You're kind of reinforcing my point here, though. If radio is still willing to increase airplay for songs like "Head Over Boots" and "Running For You", then why in the world would the label just pull the plug on those songs? The minute that they do, an artist like Jon Pardi goes from having a hit song in heavy rotation, to being stuck in Joe Nichols' shoes (or I could name anyone else who's struggling in the 40's, 50's, or lower). Yes, these long chart runs slow a lot of other people down, but if you have a hit you're not going to want to let it go. And radio is fine playing songs for a long period of time, because they like to play things that their listeners are familiar with. Only when a song starts to show higher fatigue numbers will radio start to decrease that song's airplay (and sometimes they wait even a couple weeks after the fatigue starts ramping up, simply because the label is still working the song hard and going for the highest possible peak position).
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 14:27:53 GMT -5
Also on your whole fact on if the label gives up then it'll be a long time before Jon is back in the Top 20. While yes that is true, when artists like David Nail, Kip Moore, Jon Pardi and Frankie Ballard (Frankie and David are done) take up chart space when all move at near snail pace and refuse to give up, that's why we have as many chart casualties as we do, Craig Morgan just gave up. Joe Nichols is at a near stand still with "Undone". Mickey Guyton and Cassadee Pope couldn't even score a single add this past week. Six songs below the Top 40 on BB chart ended up losing their bullet (Josh Turner, Maddie & Tae, Clare Dunn, Thompson Square, Parmalee, and Eli Young Band) and the reason is not enough songs are throwing the white flag when they should. You're kind of reinforcing my point here, though. If radio is still willing to increase airplay for songs like "Head Over Boots" and "Running For You", then why in the world would the label just pull the plug on those songs? The minute that they do, an artist like Jon Pardi goes from having a hit song in heavy rotation, to being stuck in Joe Nichols' shoes (or I could name anyone else who's struggling in the 40's, 50's, or lower). Yes, these long chart runs slow a lot of other people down, but if you have a hit you're not going to want to let it go. And radio is fine playing songs for a long period of time, because they like to play things that their listeners are familiar with. Only when a song starts to show higher fatigue numbers will radio start to decrease that song's airplay (and sometimes they wait even a couple weeks after the fatigue starts ramping up, simply because the label is still working the song hard and going for the highest possible peak position). This is my last post on the subject matter if you wanna continue this can we do it in a personal message please. My qualms is more of how songs that have hit potential end up getting screwed over by songs that go past their expiration date (this doesn't completely apply to Jon Pardi) examples recently include "Mayday" more than likely "Unlove You" and songs like "Shut Up & Fish", all songs that sold pretty well and seem or won't even make the Top 20. I don't know when Jon Pardi bullet was near a negative number that screamed to me radio kind of wants to drop it soon but I guess once again I was reading into something that wasn't there. But I mean holy crap, "Running For You" is at #119 on the BB Hot 100 and it is nearing the Top 15. That's downright pathetic and I really wish radio would show more resistance towards these songs that aren't selling well at all and tell labels they aren't going to lift this mich higher, then when you add in the oversaturation of artists with singles out and it's no wonder the charts are as slow as a snail. That's also why we really haven't seen much female success a full year after TomatoGate. Maddie & Tae have basically gotten the Kacey Musgraves treatment, Cams "Mayday" flopped due to BS research even if it's sales were rivaling songs like "Running For You". I mean yeah Maren Morris is off to a promising start and Kelsea Ballerini is as well. But really the women in country music problem has stayed about the same. This doesn't apply completely to Jon Pardi but I just really want to see some chart space cleaned up and I'm afraid that these labels that push songs like Jon Pardi and Kip Moore up like crazy don't realize that the labels other songs are struggling more (Mickey Guyton, Gary Allan, and Josh Turner) and have at least very least potential. I just think that last week was telling radio was kinda hesitant towards this song.
|
|
.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
|
Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 21, 2016 15:00:31 GMT -5
It sounds like you're getting mad that the label wanting to get this to #1 means that there's one less spot on the chart for songs below it to move up... hello first world problems. This has a great shot to be Jon Pardi's first #1 hit and I think with the way it's done at radio and especially with how it's selling (it's obviously connected very well with the general public), his label would be incredibly dumb to just drop it in the Top 10 and not even try to hit the top. No logic in that at all. If they try and come up short and wind up with a #2 or #3 peak on BB or something, then so be it, but to just "throw up the white flag" in order to evidently free up more chart space for other artists? I don't follow that, lol. I could understand that argument for something like Kip Moore or Frankie Ballard who aren't/weren't selling that well, but this one? Nah. I think jhomes87's point about pushing this as high as they can and then allowing them to hold off until around September to release a new single is a good idea, because ditching this one in order to hurry out a new single... just so it can potentially float around in the 50s won't do anybody any good.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 16:01:13 GMT -5
This is my last post on the subject matter if you wanna continue this can we do it in a personal message please. My qualms is more of how songs that have hit potential end up getting screwed over by songs that go past their expiration date (this doesn't completely apply to Jon Pardi) examples recently include "Mayday" more than likely "Unlove You" and songs like "Shut Up & Fish", all songs that sold pretty well and seem or won't even make the Top 20. I don't know when Jon Pardi bullet was near a negative number that screamed to me radio kind of wants to drop it soon but I guess once again I was reading into something that wasn't there. But I mean holy crap, "Running For You" is at #119 on the BB Hot 100 and it is nearing the Top 15. That's downright pathetic and I really wish radio would show more resistance towards these songs that aren't selling well at all and tell labels they aren't going to lift this mich higher, then when you add in the oversaturation of artists with singles out and it's no wonder the charts are as slow as a snail. That's also why we really haven't seen much female success a full year after TomatoGate. Maddie & Tae have basically gotten the Kacey Musgraves treatment, Cams "Mayday" flopped due to BS research even if it's sales were rivaling songs like "Running For You". I mean yeah Maren Morris is off to a promising start and Kelsea Ballerini is as well. But really the women in country music problem has stayed about the same. This doesn't apply completely to Jon Pardi but I just really want to see some chart space cleaned up and I'm afraid that these labels that push songs like Jon Pardi and Kip Moore up like crazy don't realize that the labels other songs are struggling more (Mickey Guyton, Gary Allan, and Josh Turner) and have at least very least potential. I just think that last week was telling radio was kinda hesitant towards this song. I understand that you want the chart to move faster -- I'd like to see that too -- but I'm trying to explain why that isn't going to happen anytime soon. You are looking at it from an outsider's perspective; chart-watching is a hobby of yours, but you aren't an industry insider (neither am I). But you have to try and put yourself in their shoes. In Jon Pardi's case, if Capitol drops this now, then Jon probably won't receive any significant airplay until 2017. That's why labels want their hit songs to last as long as possible (unless, of course, they feel that they can benefit from moving on to the next single). Capitol would gladly take another 2-3 weeks of heavy rotation for this song rather than...extremely minimal airplay for whatever Jon's next single will be. I agree that it'd be nice if radio didn't oblige the labels so much, but it's not gonna change anytime soon. Music Row label execs and radio conglomerates prefer the way things are now: a slow-moving chart where everyone lines up and takes their turn, with the whole chart more or less moving in lockstep. Radio programmers do take sales and streams into account, but they also rely heavily on research and of course there's the whole label politics thing. The stronger labels can funnel a lot of money into radio promotion, but artists like Kelsea Ballerini and now LoCash are able to break out on smaller labels because they are the sole focus of those labels (labels which, by the way, are backed by very wealthy individuals). Bigger labels like Universal and Sony know that not every artist on their roster can have success at the same time, so they aren't going to freak out if artists like Mickey Guyton, Josh Turner, and Gary Allan (among others) are stuck at the bottom of the charts. They'll take the hits that they can get. It's not that they aren't trying hard to promote those other artists, but they understand that most of their artists (except for the A-listers) are gonna go through ups and downs, simply because there are so many labels and artists competing for airplay.
|
|
|
Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jul 21, 2016 19:48:55 GMT -5
I understand the general argument against labels clogging up the charts by fighting for singles suffering flagging radio interest, but I think the case of "Head Over Boots" is qualitatively different. Traditional country has been just about as scarce on the country airplay charts as rising females over the past five years or so, and so here was a case of Capitol Nashville seeing that they had an actual country single that was working as a digital download and that programmers seemed to like well enough to at least give a chance to hang around. We're not going to agree with every passion project that a label fights for because it believes it has a hit (hello, Clare Dunn's "Tuxedo"), but "Head Over Boots" has continued to sell, Jon Pardi managed to score a round of good media by snagging a #1 Billboard Country Albums debut and generally strong reviews of California Sunrise and now there's buzz about him possibly signifying something for the country format (see the recent Billboard Country Update lead story on Pardi's breakout). Everyone (label, radio and media) has bought in because this is a story that everyone wants to buy in, an artist who can help them to make the case for country music really and truly being a big tent, an artist that can help the media at least discuss the possibility of the pendulum swinging back to something resembling country music. And so why not try to keep it going so that everyone can celebrate a #1 radio hit as well? It makes sense to allow all partners to be invested and to share in the success story, because it makes it more likely that they'll be willing to help keep the Pardi/ California Sunrise story going. I don't know if I'm as optimistic that Pardi's current success could start at least a little wave, but his unlikely success strikes me as legitimately good for the format and a genuine case of a song and artist connecting with an audience to the point that it makes sense to fight to give him the space to grow. I might feel differently if he were the umpteenth Justin Timberlake wannabe trying to make it in the country format. But for the moment, he's doing something that isn't being replicated by others on the airplay charts, with music that lives up to its genre billing. So the extended chart run for "Head Over Boots" strikes me as a case where the potential benefits of a few extra weeks charting outweigh the extra bottlenecking that may result.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Jul 31, 2016 22:08:09 GMT -5
Hold on a minute, lol. The Highway played "Dirt On My Boots" this weekend during their "Horizon" show and Buzz Brainard said,
"We're thinking that's Jon's next single off 'California Sunrise'"...
Ugh. It's the only track that wasn't instant with me. I knew it was a contender for a single but...what a change of events from "Cowboy Hat." :(
|
|
dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,031
|
Post by dm2081 on Jul 31, 2016 22:10:33 GMT -5
That would be an awful choice IMO.
|
|
carriekins
5x Platinum Member
With my mouth wide open in a whiskey rain, I could stand here 24 hours a day...
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 5,325
|
Post by carriekins on Jul 31, 2016 22:13:14 GMT -5
In the Mike Dungan interview in Billboard last week, he said he was expecting that to be the next single but Jon was resisting because he didn't think it was him. Jon caved by the end of the article.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Jul 31, 2016 22:18:29 GMT -5
That would be an awful choice IMO. Co-sign. "Cowboy Hat" followed by "She Ain't In It" was my dream scenario.
|
|
phil1996
4x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2009
Posts: 4,832
|
Post by phil1996 on Jul 31, 2016 22:41:37 GMT -5
I love Cowboy Hat but Dirt On My Boots is definitely a huge hit. Zero doubt.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2016 6:00:17 GMT -5
"Dirt on My Boots" would be a hit. I think it bridges the gap nicely between Jon and modern.
|
|
kw9461
3x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 3,764
|
Post by kw9461 on Aug 1, 2016 9:03:17 GMT -5
Ugh, ANYTHING but Dirt On My Boots. That would be such a dispiriting choice. Proof that Dunigan's comments about Pardi are just lip service - he can be his unique self as song as he releases the same pseudo-country crap for radio as everyone else. I actually don't hate the song, it's very catchy, but there are dozens of other artists that could do that song and it would be the same song. Jon is such a distinctive, unique artist that releasing something so watered down and un-country would be such a shame.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2016 9:58:02 GMT -5
|
|
dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,031
|
Post by dm2081 on Aug 1, 2016 10:14:17 GMT -5
I just don't hear how it's a smash. I could literally imagine any male in Nashville singing that one. It's not bad by any means, but it's not very distinctive. "Head Over Boots" is a hit because it doesn't sound like anything else on the radio. "Cowboy Hat" is just so freaking obvious to me, I don't know why this is even an issue. "Night Shift" and "Heartache On The Dancefloor" would be better choices as well.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2016 10:30:35 GMT -5
"Dirt on My Boots" and "Heartache on the Dancefloor" are the most trendy of the CD, if that's even a good way to put it.
I kind of agree with the big whig--how can you put a song on the CD and then say it's not you? I know there's pressure from everywhere for artists, but if you put the song on the record you better believe it's fair game for radio (just ask Jerrod Niemann).
Right now, even "Dirt on My Boots" is a unique sound. It's gritty, twangy, and has plenty of country instrumentation. I don't get why you guys hate it. "Cowboy Hat" is, lyrically, not much different.
|
|
bjer127
New Member
Joined: April 2012
Posts: 414
|
Post by bjer127 on Aug 1, 2016 11:02:22 GMT -5
Maybe it's just my OCD, but it would be doomed from the get go because the title has the word Boots in it. It's like Toby Keith releasing a endless amount of drinking songs as singles. I think that my stave off some programmers or listeners. I think the song is ok and wouldn't have an issue with it being a single , just following another song about Boots (kinda) is risky
I think anything on the album would have sounded good on the radio. For jons sake I hope this is a hit so we CAN get cowboy hat or she ain't in it. And to help him keep pumping out stellar albums.
|
|
jdbowman
Gold Member
Joined: March 2012
Posts: 830
|
Post by jdbowman on Aug 5, 2016 9:06:27 GMT -5
I'm fine with releasing Dirt on My Boots as long as they follow it with Cowboy Hat, Can't Turn You Down, She Ain't In It, /era.
|
|
zaclord 🌈
Diamond Member
Jesus Jamz POTY
It'll all be alright...
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 10,795
|
Post by zaclord 🌈 on Aug 5, 2016 9:15:47 GMT -5
I just don't hear how it's a smash. I could literally imagine any male in Nashville singing that one. It's not bad by any means, but it's not very distinctive. "Head Over Boots" is a hit because it doesn't sound like anything else on the radio. "Cowboy Hat" is just so freaking obvious to me, I don't know why this is even an issue. "Night Shift" and "Heartache On The Dancefloor" would be better choices as well. This is exactly why it'll be a hit.
|
|
bksouthga
New Member
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 493
|
Post by bksouthga on Aug 7, 2016 11:23:19 GMT -5
I heard an acoustic version of this song on Rise Up this morning. It was really good, the dobro was heavily featured. I think I may like it better than the album version.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 17:49:58 GMT -5
Is "Dirt on My Boots" getting regular The Highway airplay or just On the Horizon?
I see it's up to #73 on iTunes either way, which is a good sign.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Aug 7, 2016 17:51:13 GMT -5
Is "Dirt on My Boots" getting regular The Highway airplay or just On the Horizon? I see it's up to #73 on iTunes either way, which is a good sign. Just "The Horizon."
|
|
dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,031
|
Post by dm2081 on Aug 7, 2016 19:00:50 GMT -5
Is "Dirt on My Boots" getting regular The Highway airplay or just On the Horizon? I see it's up to #73 on iTunes either way, which is a good sign. All-genre or country charts?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2016 20:23:33 GMT -5
Is "Dirt on My Boots" getting regular The Highway airplay or just On the Horizon? I see it's up to #73 on iTunes either way, which is a good sign. All-genre or country charts? Country, sorry. Either way I think it shows it will be an impact single. The Horizon program is played, what, a few times a weekend? So to get even a noticable sales boost (nevermind one that big) is worth mentioning.
|
|
Ten Pound Hammer
9x Platinum Member
Banned
I watched it all on my radio
Joined: August 2006
Posts: 9,595
|
Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Aug 8, 2016 3:45:57 GMT -5
I just don't hear how it's a smash. I could literally imagine any male in Nashville singing that one. It's not bad by any means, but it's not very distinctive. "Head Over Boots" is a hit because it doesn't sound like anything else on the radio. "Cowboy Hat" is just so freaking obvious to me, I don't know why this is even an issue. "Night Shift" and "Heartache On The Dancefloor" would be better choices as well. This is exactly why it'll be a hit. Also known as "Backroad Song Syndrome".
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2016 10:38:48 GMT -5
The push is on for this one. Obviously they can hold back Sam Hunt (if they want) but Dan + Shay are pretty close too.
I'm guessing they'll end up getting MB only for this, if anything.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2016 11:06:39 GMT -5
The push is on for this one. Obviously they can hold back Sam Hunt (if they want) but Dan + Shay are pretty close too. I'm guessing they'll end up getting MB only for this, if anything. I expect #1 on both charts. Jon started the week with an 800k lead over Dan + Shay on Billboard, and today's Mediabase update shows Jon out-gaining Dan + Shay by over 100k and out-gaining Sam by nearly 300k. If Jon has a bad Sunday (Monday morning MB update), then that could mean a Mediabase-only #1, but I think Capitol will go for both charts here.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Aug 10, 2016 11:52:10 GMT -5
This was today's radio update. I'm now 99% sure "Head Over Boots" will take Mediabase and judging the audience increases since Sunday/Monday, Jon should be able to take Billboard if Capitol pushes through Sunday, which the original "Max Spins" ad indicated. Jon and Sam are both UMG artists and since many stations adjust playlists on Tuesday's, it looks like they have bought the idea of "Head Over Boots" magical chart run conclusion. We already know Warner is maxing "From The Ground Up" next week, so that should pave the way for Jon to get his first #1 single.
|
|