sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 3, 2016 21:52:59 GMT -5
I'd do "Parachute" but The Highway's been spinning "Fire Away" and Chris is performing it tonight at the ACM's. I don't see Chris as getting a lot of radio hits. I think he'll end up as this period's Alison Krauss, to make a comparison. I don't quite know why you quoted me there, lol.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Apr 3, 2016 21:56:23 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess you make a good points sabre14 & someguy. "Fire Away" being released to radio soon and then getting an adds date in a few weeks would probably be a good idea.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 3, 2016 21:58:10 GMT -5
I don't see Chris as getting a lot of radio hits. I think he'll end up as this period's Alison Krauss, to make a comparison. I don't quite know why you quoted me there, lol. Oh, more meaning that I don't think the actual single choice matters much. I could have clarified that though, lol.
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Post by musicofmyheart on Apr 4, 2016 4:05:18 GMT -5
I wonder if the fact that Nobody to Blame won ACM Song of the Year will breathe new life for it with radio & propel it higher on the charts? I know when I am driving and this song comes on, I automatically crank up the volume & can't help but sing along...out loud... in the most dramatic way! This song makes me crazy in the best possible way!
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Apr 4, 2016 12:38:09 GMT -5
someguy, radio will continue to play him this album cycle. As for,the next single, "Tennessee Whiskey" is probably the smarter radio play, honestly. "Fire AWay" will have massive burn rates. The only real complaint I hear about Chris is that folks think he's yelling and not really singing.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 4, 2016 17:38:51 GMT -5
"Fire Away" is an outstanding song with such an eerie effective mood. It's a standout on the album, but doesn't seem wise to release to radio. It's just too slow and mature for someone lacking established radio credentials. "Tennessee Whiskey" is still selling like crazy, is clearly popular, and is more uptempo, making it a logical choice IMO. I also imagine that having the word "whiskey" in the title could help smooth it over with probably the most resistant subset of listeners: the young male demographic. It might be able to appeal more to those who've come to expect party central on country radio, rather than something serious like "Fire Away".
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Apr 4, 2016 18:10:26 GMT -5
Tennessee Whiskey is such an obvious choice. The title track sounds a ton like his current single, Fire Away, while outstanding, won't work at radio. Parachute is great as well, but again, who knows how that'll do at radio
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Post by countrygirl918 on Apr 4, 2016 18:22:31 GMT -5
The only concern I have with "Tennessee Whiskey" is that listeners might feel like it's an "old" song, since it first broke through nearly 5 months ago at the CMAs. However, the song still remains popular so that might not be an issue at all.
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House Lannister
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Post by House Lannister on Apr 4, 2016 20:17:49 GMT -5
It'd be a shame if this went no higher. It's one of my favorite country tunes right now.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Apr 4, 2016 20:33:46 GMT -5
The only concern I have with "Tennessee Whiskey" is that listeners might feel like it's an "old" song, since it first broke through nearly 5 months ago at the CMAs. However, the song still remains popular so that might not be an issue at all. I agree. I guess it just comes down to what the label's agenda is with Chris. If they are looking for radio hits, then Tennessee Whiskey is a no-brainer. But if they are looking to sell records and continue to build Chris' exposure, I think it makes more sense to go with a track people aren't as familiar with. I would personally go with When The Stars Come Out, but since that doesn't seem to be on the table then Parachute makes the most sense. It isn't among my favorites on the album, but the melody is strong and I just don't think a slower song like Fire Away would do all that well, no matter how good the song is (though I hope that's just me being cynical).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 20:58:51 GMT -5
Heh.... On one side we have an artist whose album, "Traveller" has sold so many copies that he's now the best selling album artist in country music in the last 18 months beating out powerhouses like Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line. And no, I'm not worshipping the ground that this man walks on, because opinion has nothing to do with this. This is a stone cold fact. On the other hand, we have the two largest corporations that run radio (IHeart and Cumulus) submerged in billions of dollars of debt. The Titanic is sinking and they're stuck without a lifejacket, a boat, or a paddle. All I'm saying is that the question shouldn't be asked "what does Chris Stapleton need to suck up to country radio with?", but rather, "how fast can Country radio add Chris Stapleton's new song?" But why don't they? Oh yeah "poor research". Pfft. Chris Stapleton doesn't need country radio. Just, country radio needs Chris Stapleton and badly if they are in billions of debt. Maybe they shouldn't push stuff that doesn't sell all that well.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 4, 2016 21:28:35 GMT -5
He stays on the Billboard chart, but loses over 800K and falls 12-14. I'd imagine that he goes recurrent next week, but I guess we'll see.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2016 23:43:29 GMT -5
He stays on the Billboard chart, but loses over 800K and falls 12-14. I'd imagine that he goes recurrent next week, but I guess we'll see. I'd think it's more likely that this one rebounds, but yeah, we'll have to wait and see. I'm not sure why there's this perception that this one isn't testing well, because that's simply not true at all. On Mediabase Callout, Chris' negative rating is slightly higher than most songs, but given that the sample size isn't super huge, it's probably only the result of 2-3 people ranking this one more negative than [insert any other song here], and radio knows this. And for the record, I don't think Mediabase's Callout chart is the most accurate right now, because they have "Beautiful Drug" at #1 overall, and that was clearly a polarizing tune. It took a while to catch on, and radio dropped it like a hot potato once it peaked. Stapleton's negative rating on Mediabase Callout is 18.6, only 2 percentage points worse than Brett Eldredge's "Drunk On Your Love", which had no problems climbing up the chart. Chris' negative rating is pretty much on par with the negative ratings for Tim McGraw, Justin Moore, Jon Pardi, Frankie Ballard, and the aforementioned Eldredge, and those guys aren't having any issues at all. So no, it's not "negative research" that's hurting this one. Stapleton is #12 overall on Mediabase Callout, and "Nobody To Blame" is one of the top testing songs* on Bullseye Callout, Callout America, and RadioFeedback/Nashville Country Club. It's more likely that there are some people in radio who are still annoyed that they aren't the ones who gave Chris his big break. They're still trying to resist him, his music, and his popularity a bit, and while it's frustrating, it's also kind of hilarious, given how futile it is. Stapleton is here to stay. He might not ever have a huge string of #1 hits, but there's no denying that he's become one of the most popular artists in not just country music, but in all genres of music. Corporate radio would be foolish to not embrace his music. *Here are the callout numbers for "Nobody To Blame": Bullseye Callout: #15 overall (out of 35). And there are 20+ songs with higher dislike ratings. Callout America: #5 overall (out of 35), behind only "Humble and Kind", "Somewhere On A Beach", "Confession", and "American Country Love Song". Chris' negative rating is only 11.5...and the vast majority of the songs have negative ratings of between 12-20. RadioFeedback: #6 overall (out of 40), and there are only 4 songs that have a better dislike rating. Mediabase Callout: #12 overall (out of 25). At present, Bullseye Callout and Callout America appear to the be the most accurate callout charts to me, because they both clearly foreshadowed the struggles that songs like "Real Men Love Jesus", "Shut Up And Fish", "My Church", and "Stone Cold Sober" have had/been having. Additionally, Mediabase Callout is the only chart where "Humble and Kind" isn't at or near the top (Tim is only #18 overall on MB callout), which definitely seems rather inaccurate to me. "Humble and Kind" is undeniably popular. Anyway, if Chris and the label are ready to move on to the next single...I say "Parachute", "Tennessee Whiskey", or bust. As much as I love "Fire Away", I don't think it would be the best radio single. It's a great single for SiriusXM, but I think "Parachute" and "Tennessee Whiskey" are much better choices for terrestrial radio.
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tailgate
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Post by tailgate on Apr 5, 2016 4:07:47 GMT -5
Do you guys think that the title track could still be re-released as a single? As far as I know/remember, it didn't do so well during its run so it could still sound fresh on the radio. To me it seems like the most accessible track on the album with Parachute as a close second.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 5, 2016 6:24:18 GMT -5
Chris' song lost another 300k in audience today. Its lost 1.6 million in Mediabase audience over the past three weeks -- that's just not indicative of a song that's going to be rebounding. This one has all the appearances of a song that has stalled out.
The overall call-out scores are average -- not bad -- but I do think radio is favoring better researching songs in favor of "Nobody To Blame" and the massive influx of high profile releases stealing spins isn't helping either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 12:56:13 GMT -5
The fact that this song is going to sputter out in the 10-14 range, while "Little Bit Of You" has a legitimate chance of hitting #1 shows how out of touch country radio is with what people really want. I'd like to give a middle finger out to country radio for letting this stall.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 5, 2016 13:30:32 GMT -5
The fact that this song is going to sputter out in the 10-14 range, while "Little Bit Of You" has a legitimate chance of hitting #1 shows how out of touch country radio is with what people really want. I'd like to give a middle finger out to country radio for letting this stall. They think "Little Bit Of You" is what their listeners want. You very well could be right in thinking their out-of-touch but they believe they're doing their programming justice.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 13:40:01 GMT -5
The fact that this song is going to sputter out in the 10-14 range, while "Little Bit Of You" has a legitimate chance of hitting #1 shows how out of touch country radio is with what people really want. I'd like to give a middle finger out to country radio for letting this stall. They think "Little Bit Of You" is what their listeners want. You very well could be right in thinking their out-of-touch but they believe they're doing their programming justice. If it's what listeners want, the sales would clearly reflect that (it's not as "Little Bit Of You" is mingling around in the 80s on iTunes Country). Meanwhile the biggest star in country music who is outselling the likes of Luke Bryan, Carrie Underwood and Eric Church weekly in album sales.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 5, 2016 14:12:14 GMT -5
They think "Little Bit Of You" is what their listeners want. You very well could be right in thinking their out-of-touch but they believe they're doing their programming justice. If it's what listeners want, the sales would clearly reflect that (it's not as "Little Bit Of You" is mingling around in the 80s on iTunes Country). Meanwhile the biggest star in country music who is outselling the likes of Luke Bryan, Carrie Underwood and Eric Church weekly in album sales. Again, I agree with you. However, in radio's mind, if listeners enjoy hearing "Little Bit Of You" (which the research says they do) then they're content with Red Bow's aggressive promotion tactics and are willing to keep it alive for over 50 weeks charting. The problem is that while listeners appear to either like or not mind "Little Bit Of You" on the radio, they're not compelled enough to buy the track, which is frustrating since that also speaks volumes to me. Back to "Nobody To Blame", I never thought radio would support Chris' music for the long haul and once again, this song was a great candidate for them to not convert with all the new singles by big names hitting radio. The call-out scores are not bad, but not great enough in their mind to give this song more conversions (it almost seems like they waited for the right time/excuse to stop increasing this one's airtime). This one's lost 1.6 million audience in three weeks...that's an alarming amount. The song's only getting older, too.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Apr 5, 2016 16:22:03 GMT -5
Since this song seems to be done and if they want to release another single I'd go with "Fire Away" since he performed it on the ACM's. Also if they release a cover song from this album as a single I'd go with "Was It 26".
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 5, 2016 16:53:26 GMT -5
The problem is that while listeners appear to either like or not mind "Little Bit Of You" on the radio, they're not compelled enough to buy the track, which is frustrating since that also speaks volumes to me. This trend seems to happen a lot in country music specifically.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 19:15:45 GMT -5
It'd be a shame if this went no higher. It's one of my favorite country tunes right now. I agree, it'll be a real shame if this one doesn't climb any higher. I mean, it just won Song of the Year at the ACM's, it's selling well, and the album is selling incredibly well. And it's also testing very well with listeners; "Nobody To Blame" is in the top third or better on all of the major callout charts, and both its dislike and fatigue percentages are quite low (compared to all other songs) on Bullseye Callout and Callout America. Mediabase Callout is showing a slightly higher dislike score, but I find Mediabase Callout to be less accurate as they don't split their demographics as evenly as Bullseye does. Bullseye splits their demos evenly: 50/50 male/female. Bullseye also uses a fixed sample size. Mediabase Callout's sample size fluctuates week-to-week sometimes, and they also don't split their demos evenly (thanks to 43dudleyvillas for pointing this out to me). As a result, I've noticed that the week-to-week results on Mediabase Callout haven't been quite as consistent as the Bullseye Callout and Callout America charts have been. Overall, I'd say that the best-testing songs right now definitely seem to be "Humble and Kind", "Somewhere On A Beach", "Confession", "Little Bit Of You", and "American Country Love Song", but "Nobody To Blame" is right up there as well. The early research on the new Luke and Blake singles is also very strong. There's no denying that "Nobody To Blame" is struggling -- which is extremely frustrating -- but I think we have to wait a couple more days to see how it will do. Programmers often don't tweak their playlists until Tuesday or Wednesday, so it's possible that Chris' ACM wins could cause some radio stations to increase this one's spins later this week. I truly think the biggest issues that Chris is facing is that radio is holding him back because they weren't the ones to give him his breakthrough, and then the influx of new releases from Blake, Luke, Kenny, Keith, Jason, and others hasn't helped, either.
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g8erboi
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Post by g8erboi on Apr 5, 2016 21:29:37 GMT -5
I don't get the whole idea that radio is upset that they weren't the ones who broke out Stapleton. It was their own fault. Radio had the opportunity to break him out when he released "Traveller" as a single, but instead they gave him the cold shoulder.
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zjames
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Post by zjames on Apr 5, 2016 21:31:33 GMT -5
I don't get the whole idea that radio is upset that they weren't the ones who broke out Stapleton. It was their own fault. Radio had the opportunity to break him out when he released "Traveller" as a single, but instead they gave him the cold shoulder. They had the opportunity when he released the awesome "What Are You Listening To?" in 2013.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 21:42:26 GMT -5
I don't get the whole idea that radio is upset that they weren't the ones who broke out Stapleton. It was their own fault. Radio had the opportunity to break him out when he released "Traveller" as a single, but instead they gave him the cold shoulder. Right, they should/could have turned "Traveller" into a big hit. Heck, they could have started playing Chris years ago when he released "What Are You Listening To". But here's the thing: radio doesn't want artists to be able to become superstars via other platforms (in Chris' case, it was a televised awards show performance that catapulted him into superstardom). If artists can break out in a big way by only performing on TV, or releasing music to YouTube, Spotify, or some other platform...that makes radio less important. In this digital era, radio is fighting for their lives to remain relevant. Years ago, people listened to the radio all the time because it was really the only way to discover and consume new music. But nowadays people have endless options. We have tablets, smart phones, all kinds of streaming services, etc, and studies have shown that most people only listen to the radio during their work commute. Radio wants to be THE only avenue for artists to "make it big", but it's becoming increasingly hard for radio to remain "king" when there are all these other outlets that have come along and taken a slice of the pie. Can you imagine what would happen if a bunch of other artists started getting their big breaks in an unorthodox way like Stapleton did? That would not be good for radio at all. Radio doesn't want that -- they want to stay on top. They want artists to rely on them and only them. Fortunately (for radio, that is), radio airplay is still far and away the #1 path to get music out to the masses. But things are always changing, and with every year that goes by, radio loses a little more relevancy.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Apr 5, 2016 22:28:38 GMT -5
Radio likely sees Chris Stapleton much like they saw American Idols. That is that these type of artists will get a shot to break out but it won't be sustained forever (outside of Carrie). Chris may be on his way there (though, to me, he's a generational talent like Carrie). But he's just not what the programmers think is their core audience. He's more like O Brother soundtrack and Johnny Cash "Hurt" era success. They don't see his audience as core country radio fans. It's likely a wrong approach but if his other singles falter, this is very likely why.h
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 6, 2016 14:33:30 GMT -5
Like I said yesterday, this one's not going to rebound -- it's losses are just far too great. "Nobody To Blame" lost another 50 spins and 500k in audience today and 1.2 million in lost audience since Sunday. Chris' song has now lost over 2.1 million in total Mediabase audience over the past 15 days.
The ACM awards could have been a nice boost but since it is now Wednesday, and this one is losing even greater spins and audience totals, I think Mercury could be ready to officially throw in the towel, if they haven't already.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2016 18:31:22 GMT -5
So, country radio, let's play a guessing game. [Question #1]: Which album is projecting to return to #1 on the Billboard 200 next week? [Programmer #1]: Uh, maybe Chase Bryant? He's got a really big radio hit right now! [Answer]: WRONG! [Programmer #2]: Florida Georgia Line? [Answer]: WRONG! [Programmer #3]: Well, it must be Luke Bryan...he just hosted the ACM Awards and he's the biggest name in the genre! [Answer]: WRONG! [All Programmers now]: Who in the heck could it be? It's Chris Stapleton's Traveller, guys. Traveller is projected to sell 60-65k in album sales this week, adjusted to 75-80k when streams are included. The next best-selling country album? Joey + Rory's Hymns album is expected to sell another 20,000 or so, and Carrie Underwood's Storyteller might sell around 10,000. Stapleton isn't just out-selling every other country artist by a 6 to 1 ratio (or better), he's out-selling all of the biggest pop stars right now, and most of their albums haven't been out 11 months like Traveller has. People are craving Chris' music. People are responding to his performances. Country fans want to hear this type of music on the radio. I literally can't at radio suddenly giving this one the cold shoulder.
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tonyei31
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Post by tonyei31 on Apr 6, 2016 19:33:14 GMT -5
So, country radio, let's play a guessing game. [Question #1]: Which album is projecting to return to #1 on the Billboard 200 next week? [Programmer #1]: Uh, maybe Chase Bryant? He's got a really big radio hit right now! [Answer]: WRONG! [Programmer #2]: Florida Georgia Line? [Answer]: WRONG! [Programmer #3]: Well, it must be Luke Bryan...he just hosted the ACM Awards and he's the biggest name in the genre! [Answer]: WRONG! [All Programmers now]: Who in the heck could it be? It's Chris Stapleton's Traveller, guys. Traveller is projected to sell 60-65k in album sales this week, adjusted to 75-80k when streams are included. The next best-selling country album? Joey + Rory's Hymns album is expected to sell another 20,000 or so, and Carrie Underwood's Storyteller might sell around 10,000. Stapleton isn't just out-selling every other country artist by a 6 to 1 ratio (or better), he's out-selling all of the biggest pop stars right now, and most of their albums haven't been out 11 months like Traveller has. People are craving Chris' music. People are responding to his performances. Country fans want to hear this type of music on the radio. I literally can't at radio suddenly giving this one the cold shoulder. I think his next album cycle will be the most telling. Right now I can see radio programmers saying "he doesn't need our support" but come next album cycle things may change. I just like the fact this guy is better than the majority, if not all other vocalists in Nashville and marches to the beat of his own drum. He is going to continue to put out quality music regardless of whether his music is played on radio or not it will sell. Part of me wonders if his awesome sales WITHOUT radio is the reason they stay away (or the label doesn't see the need to push as hard and spend their capital on him. His success is well overdue and I am really glad he has been front and center for a few months. When I look at someone like Chase Bryant you see an artist that hasn't connected with a solid fan base or doesn't have a "core style". I have to believe his label is pushing money to get him played with the hopes that this will trigger something with the younger, target demographic. I could, regardless of what his family member on here says, see him having another song pushed heavy and hard to radio and even after having 3 Top 20 songs on radio and finding his way without a full album release and off the label. I understand Chris's style isn't what radio is playing today but he is a bonafide star in the driven sales area without needing capital backing radio pushes. So many artists (Frankie Ballard, Canaan Smith, Chase Bryant) undersell their songs (in comparison to the expenditures exuded by labels to promote their offerings to radio) that finding them a "soft spot" with an audience is much more important than having a guy that has a built in fan base where his followers and fans will buy his album and singles. The landscape of music has changed tremendously over the past 20 years or so and guys like Chris are certainly not the norm. Chris's lack of radio play comes down to basic accounting. If I can invest 1 dollar to radio and get a return of 100 dollars up to 1,000 dollars I am not going to invest beyond my return of 1,000 dollar return as you eventually run into diminishing returns. That is what has happened with Chris. Someone like Chase Bryant they are investing 1 dollar to radio and get a return of 5 dollars per dollar up to 1,000 dollars they are going to invest until he hits the 1,000 dollar return at which the rate of diminishing returns happens.
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tonyei31
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Post by tonyei31 on Apr 6, 2016 19:58:44 GMT -5
I think his next album cycle will be the most telling. Right now I can see radio programmers saying "he doesn't need our support" but come next album cycle things may change. I'm not saying you're wrong here, but I do have to ask, what makes you say this? Radio is the one collapsing and Chris is the one rising. Not the other way around. If a label has X amount of dollars to spend to promotion and radio costs a ton why promote an artist that is already selling tremendously without the cost? I think this comes down to, more or less, the label getting a huge rate of return for limited investment. It is going to sell a ton with high end artists (like the Luke Bryan's of the world) but someone like Chris, you have no information as to what the rate of diminishing returns is so the label has to project this. I believe the recent lack of promotion in the past week or so is indicative to the label seeing this being the point of the law of diminishing returns. The reason I think so many "up and comers" are promoted hot and heavy is they have yet to hit the label's "projected peak" at which point it will pay off. Chris took such a round about way around that the labels didn't have to promote in the usual way. I really wish he would have a ton of radio success. I am really glad he is finally getting the accolades. He is one of my 2 favorite male vocalists ever. From a label's profitability standpoint he makes no sense to plug tons of money into radio for.
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