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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2016 21:54:16 GMT -5
While I think you make some great points, tonyei31 -- especially about the label not needing to spend too much on radio promotion since Chris is selling extremely well anyway -- it's my understanding that the money labels spend on radio promotion doesn't really go to radio conglomerates. I mean, after all, it's illegal to pay cash in exchange for airplay. Of course, labels have found ways around this...they often promise interviews or give out concert tickets in exchange for airplay, but for the most part, radio stations don't make money directly from record labels. Radio makes most of its money from advertising. And ratings determine what rates radio can charge advertisers. So to me it only makes sense that radio would want to play someone as undeniably popular as Stapleton (even if his label isn't spending as much on radio promotion as, say, Chase Bryant's label), because it's more than likely going to be good for their ratings in the long run. I get that radio likes to view themselves as taste-makers and gate-keepers -- they like to be the ones that determine what's popular -- but they're doing their listeners a huge disservice if they aren't playing Stapleton as much as the genre's other big stars, which means that radio is doing itself a disservice because I truly think Stapleton's music could help boost radio's ratings, which in turn allows radio to charge advertisers more money. Radio isn't going to get out of debt. But they can still find ways to make money. However, relying on record labels aggressively promoting new artists isn't gonna cut it. Radio's chief way of making money will likely always be advertising, and I think Stapleton is more likely to bring in listeners than most of the new artists that are coming out of Nashville these days. More listeners = more money from advertisers. Stapleton's music is more likely to stand the test of time than the fluff pop-country (or straight-up pop) music from Brett Eldredge, Cole Swindell, Chase Bryant, Old Dominion, Dustin Lynch, Blake Shelton, Thomas Rhett, Brantley Gilbert, Chris Lane, LoCash, Tucker Beathard, Granger Smith, Randy Houser, Brett Young, Chase Rice, etc. That's not to say that all of their music is bad, but does anybody really think that songs like "Mind Reader", "T-Shirt", "Snapback", "Little Bit Of You", "Came Here To Forget", "Rock On", "If The Boot Fits", etc. will be getting praise or be viewed as classics 5-10 years from now? Heck, most of these songs are getting panned in the present! I've made the argument that radio is a bit biased against Chris because they weren't the ones to give him his big break, but aside from that, it makes no sense to me why they wouldn't want to fully embrace him. He's pretty much the country genre's equivalent of Adele.
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hosssulpizio
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Post by hosssulpizio on Apr 6, 2016 23:30:41 GMT -5
While I think you make some great points, tonyei31 -- especially about the label not needing to spend too much on radio promotion since Chris is selling extremely well anyway -- it's my understanding that the money labels spend on radio promotion doesn't really go to radio conglomerates. I mean, after all, it's illegal to pay cash in exchange for airplay. Of course, labels have found ways around this...they often promise interviews or give out concert tickets in exchange for airplay, but for the most part, radio stations don't make money directly from record labels. Radio makes most of its money from advertising. And ratings determine what rates radio can charge advertisers. So to me it only makes sense that radio would want to play someone as undeniably popular as Stapleton (even if his label isn't spending as much on radio promotion as, say, Chase Bryant's label), because it's more than likely going to be good for their ratings in the long run. I get that radio likes to view themselves as taste-makers and gate-keepers -- they like to be the ones that determine what's popular -- but they're doing their listeners a huge disservice if they aren't playing Stapleton as much as the genre's other big stars, which means that radio is doing itself a disservice because I truly think Stapleton's music could help boost radio's ratings, which in turn allows radio to charge advertisers more money. Radio isn't going to get out of debt. But they can still find ways to make money. However, relying on record labels aggressively promoting new artists isn't gonna cut it. Radio's chief way of making money will likely always be advertising, and I think Stapleton is more likely to bring in listeners than most of the new artists that are coming out of Nashville these days. More listeners = more money from advertisers. Stapleton's music is more likely to stand the test of time than the fluff pop-country (or straight-up pop) music from Brett Eldredge, Cole Swindell, Chase Bryant, Old Dominion, Dustin Lynch, Blake Shelton, Thomas Rhett, Brantley Gilbert, Chris Lane, LoCash, Tucker Beathard, Granger Smith, Randy Houser, Brett Young, Chase Rice, etc. That's not to say that all of their music is bad, but does anybody really think that songs like "Mind Reader", "T-Shirt", "Snapback", "Little Bit Of You", "Came Here To Forget", "Rock On", "If The Boot Fits", etc. will be getting praise or be viewed as classics 5-10 years from now? Heck, most of these songs are getting panned in the present! I've made the argument that radio is a bit biased against Chris because they weren't the ones to give him his big break, but aside from that, it makes no sense to me why they wouldn't want to fully embrace him. He's pretty much the country genre's equivalent of Adele. Mind if I send this post to Billboard?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2016 23:35:27 GMT -5
Mind if I send this post to Billboard? Go ahead, sure.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 7, 2016 10:11:43 GMT -5
I think Mercury is very satisfied with the #10 peak of Nobody To Blame. It finally made Chris Stapleton a 'hit artist'. It certainly is miles better than the #46 peak in 2013 for What Are You Listening To.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 8, 2016 11:55:04 GMT -5
"Nobody To Blame" lost another 38 spins and 276k in audience today. Its now lost 2.7 million in Mediabase audience over the past 17 days. I'm expecting this Sunday to be its last chart week on MB and it should go recurrent on Billboard this Monday.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Apr 10, 2016 22:09:04 GMT -5
He's pretty much the country genre's equivalent of Adele. I'm late to this conversation (and it has been a terrific one), but the Adele/Stapleton analogy you are making really struck me. It certainly works in terms of sales right now and the idea that they are being driven largely by forces outside of radio. But what's funny/sad is that the analogy kind of works with respect to airplay at the moment, as well. Granted, the lead single from Adele's 25 went to #1 on multiple formats. But the second single, "When We Were Young," peaked outside of the top-10 at the CHR/Top-40 format (though it did make the top-3 at the Adult Top-40/Hot AC format) and there hasn't been a third single released to U.S. radio despite "When We Were Young" having peaked two months ago at the CHR/Top-40 format and over a month ago at the Adult Top-40/Hot AC format. No one could possibly be ignorant of Adele's monster sales, which dwarf those of every artist on every format. You would think that this might push programmers on the pop formats to embrace every one of Adele's singles. But somehow, her sales haven't trumped the fact that the big-voiced throwback pop balladry of 25 doesn't especially suit the current CHR/Top-40 format. Now, given the appeal of Adele's music, why isn't it changing trends at radio? One could argue that the Idol performance-driven sales spike of Kelly Clarkson's "Piece by Piece" reinforced the idea that there is a big market for expressively-sung, emotional piano-based balladry. But "Piece by Piece" wound up not even cracking the top-40 at the CHR/Top-40 format, though it does look set to make the top-10 at the Adult Top-40/Hot AC format. So back to Chris Stapleton. I think it's fair to say that "Nobody to Blame" scans as a bit of an odd bird on current country radio playlists, to the point that I wonder if something like "Fire Away" or, more obviously, "Tennessee Whiskey" might have fared better. Would country radio potentially benefit with audience growth by at least building a niche of songs around Stapleton to draw in his fans? You've made a good argument as to why it would. Would the pop formats benefit with audience growth were they to play more Adele and build a niche of songs around her? It makes sense to me that they would. That multiple formats of radio are programming in a way that doesn't favor the format artist who is moving far and away the most units suggests again that programmers are operating with certain assumptions (perhaps supported by research, imperfect though that is) about the preferences of the demographics to which their advertisers cater and that music that challenges those assumptions just isn't going to get sustained support no matter how much it sells. Moreover, it's not just about the music that's selling (traditional country in the case of "Nobody to Blame," big-voiced pop balladry in the case of Adele's current album), but about the ability to bridge from that music to the rest of what the format is playing. Let me be clear by saying that I'm not justifying this mode of thinking at all, because ceding artists like Chris Stapleton and Adele to other platforms when they are very evidently among the most impactful artists of the day seems guaranteed to consign radio to niche status. Or at the very least, it undermines radio's claim that it's the place to go to hear the hits (Some hits, sure. But not all of them.). And sure, this time, the most impactful artists of the day happen to be throwbacks, but what happens when the most impactful artists of the day reflect more modern influences that don't fit with whatever the playlist orientation of the format happens to be (Kacey Musgraves' "Follow Your Arrow" was perhaps an early example of this)? It will just make radio look backward and make it more difficult for the platform to assert its relevance to music discovery. Not only that, ceding artists like Chris Stapleton and Adele to other platforms should open labels' eyes to the idea that one can break an artist through and/or sustain record sales through platforms other than radio (it may be more difficult to achieve this on a consistent basis, but it can be cheaper to try). Given the country format's reliance on that symbiotic relationship between labels and radio when it comes to career development, one would think that this prospect would send shivers down programmers' collective spines.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 11, 2016 22:34:19 GMT -5
"Nobody To Blame" went recurrent on Billboard tonight.
I'm holding a sliver of hope Mercury can revive this (they've run an ad for "Nobody To Blame's" win for Song of the Year at the ACM's in Aircheck's email for the past few weekdays) but it lost over 2 million in MB audience this past week, along with 714 points -- in its second consecutive bulletless week. And its not off to a great start the first two days of the Mediabase tracking week -- down 71 spins and 60k in audience.
I'm not surprised this song hit a snag (since its an actual Country song and it's by an artist radio was held at gunpoint to play) but I'm quite taken back by how radio showed this song a concrete wall once it hit the top 10. The research was fine (nothing amazing but not terrible) and it sold great (its outsold top 10 singles like "I Like The Sound Of That", "Little Bit Of You", "Confession" and "Mind Reader").
This one is pretty much finished on Mediabase and I would probably pull the plug if I was the label and send out another song from Traveller. Can't stop shaking my head.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Apr 12, 2016 0:47:00 GMT -5
It's a shame this one went recurrent already. I am not too surprised it hit a wall, considering his traditional stylings. But it is still a shame.
Does anyone know approximately how much Traveller is still selling per week, on average?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2016 1:56:52 GMT -5
Does anyone know approximately how much Traveller is still selling per week, on average? Way more than most albums. It's been the #1 country album for 17 weeks, all of them since the CMA's in early November. Here are some rounded sales figures for Traveller, listed by Billboard chart date. Traveller was the #1 country album on each of these dates. 11/21/15: 153,000 11/28/15: 97,000 12/12/15: 49,000 12/26/15: 44,000 01/02/16: 55,000 01/09/16: 80,000 01/16/16: 37,000 01/23/16: 33,000 01/30/16: 26,000 02/06/16: 32,000 02/13/16: 28,000 02/20/16: 27,000 02/27/16: 27,000 03/12/16: 44,000 03/19/16: 34,000 04/16/16: 24,000 04/23/16: 59,000 As for the missing weeks, Chris Young's I'm Comin' Over debuted at #1 on the 12/05/15 chart (57,000 sold), Carrie Underwood's Storyteller briefly returned to #1 on the 12/19/15 chart (45,000 sold), and Joey + Rory's Hymns album spent 4 non-consecutive weeks at #1 over the last 2 months. Traveller has sold almost 1.2 million copies total and shows no signs of slowing down. I know Chris isn't exactly a new artist, but he's new to most of the public, and he's new to radio. Well, most new radio acts are lucky if they can sell 200-300k copies of an album and many popular artists can't sell much more than Gold anymore, either. Just going through a list of major label artists...Dierks Bentley's Riser has sold a little under 400,000 total, and I believe his album before that, Home, has sold around 350,000 total. Lady Antebellum's 747 sold around 300,000. The total sales for Little Big Town's last 2 albums, Tornado and Pain Killer, are approximately 1.1 million and 475,000 copies, respectively. Darius Rucker's 2013 album True Believers is around 600,000 sold (buoyed by the success of "Wagon Wheel"), but 2015's Southern Style is sitting just under 200,000 sold. Eric Church's Mr. Misunderstood is up to about 350,000 total, while newbies Eric Paslay and Brothers Osborne have sold about 65,000 and 50,000, respectively, with their debut albums. Kip Moore's 2012 debut album has sold just short of 500,000, but his 2015 sophomore album has only sold about 80,000 so far. David Nail's last album -- released more than 2 years ago -- didn't even come close to 100,000 in total sales. Billy Currington's last album, Summer Forever, couldn't sell 100,000 either. Easton Corbin's About To Get Real, released in June 2015, has only sold about 60,000 total. Canaan Smith's debut album Bronco, released in June 2015, has only sold around 40,000. Brad Paisley's last 2 albums both stalled out around 200,000, give or take a bit. Cam's Untamed has been one of the few bright spots for new artists, as it's sold around 110,000 in only 4 months. Kenny Chesney's last 2 albums each sold between 400,000 and 450,000 total. Tyler Farr's 2 albums have sold around 200,000 and 110,000, respectively. Chase Rice's Ignite The Night managed to sell over 300,000, but a lot of that was due to heavy sale-pricing. Chris Young's I'm Comin' Over is up to about 175,000 so far, and his previous album, A.M., stalled around 275,000. Jake Owen's Days of Gold -- released in December 2013 -- topped out around 230,000 sold. Old Dominion's 5-month-old debut album has sold around 85,000 so far. Blake Shelton's last album, Bringing Back the Sunshine, topped out around 450,000. Frankie Ballard's Sunshine & Whiskey is sitting around 100,000 sold, Dan + Shay's debut album has sold around 140,000, and Chris Janson's Buy Me A Boat has sold about 85,000 since its October release. A few more examples...Brett Eldredge's debut album is around 200,000 sold, and his sophomore album has sold about 120,000 so far. Michael Ray's self-titled debut, released back in August, hasn't even sold 30,000 total. Then you have Tim McGraw, whose Sundown Heaven Town sold just over 300,000, and whose latest release, Damn Country Music, is around 130,000 sold ("Humble and Kind" is helping somewhat, but the album opened very poorly last fall and has never recovered). Thomas Rhett's Tangled Up is up to about 330,000 total, Zac Brown Band's Jekyll + Hyde has sold about 630,000, Maddie & Tae's Start Here has sold about 95,000, and Dustin Lynch's sophomore album has only sold about 135,000. Lee Brice's I Don't Dance has sold just under 250,000, Big & Rich's most recent album has only sold about 50,000, and Kelsea Ballerini's debut album is sitting around 120,000 sold. There are a few exceptions -- recent albums from Luke Bryan and Jason Aldean both trickled past 1 million sold, and Florida Georgia Line's Anything Goes and Miranda Lambert's Platinum each managed to surpass 800,000 sold. Carrie Underwood, Eric Church, and the Zac Brown Band continue to sell fairly well, but like Luke and Jason, they've all seen a decline in sales. Sam Hunt's Montevallo has sold about 1.1 million but Stapleton has blown right past that, and Traveller will only continue to pull away. It's mind-boggling to me that country radio apparently doesn't want to play the most popular country artist as much as they play Dustin Lynch, Granger Smith, Tyler Farr, Frankie Ballard, Brett Eldredge, Thomas Rhett, Old Dominion, Lee Brice, and even Blake Shelton. In addition to Stapleton's dominant album sales, his individual track sales have been astonishingly good, too. I understand that Stapleton's rise to fame was rather unconventional, and I understand that radio doesn't always play what sells. I also understand that radio likes to see itself as the "leader" (radio conglomerates like to be taste-makers and determine what's popular). But from a common sense-standpoint, it seems to me that radio should want to play the most popular artists in hopes of drawing in more listeners. I realize that they have finally begun to play Stapleton's music, but his airplay still pales in comparison to dozens of new and mid-level radio artists, and that just seems...completely wrong to me.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2016 6:24:46 GMT -5
Excellent analysis as always. It's a shame this one is apparently done. Considering the circumstances, I never expected this to be a #1 but I did expect a top 5.
I think some of it comes from the label. If the label and Chris are okay letting it go (as opposed to spending thousands upon thousands of dollars you'll never see a return on, like with "Little Bit of You"), I think it goes. They could push this into the top 5 if they wanted to. Maybe certain artists don't care to play radio's game?
I do think a little bit of resentment from radio came into play here. We saw it with "Girl Crush". As soon as radio let it get top 3 it ran like the building was on fire. They had no choice but to play that one due to the public backlash/support.
The bottom line is: the radio system is crumbling and it's crumbling a lot faster than we probably realize. When all's said and done, I think we'll see an influx of really great country music. Is that in 1 year or 5 years or 10 years? Hard to say.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 12, 2016 6:39:50 GMT -5
I think some of it comes from the label. If the label and Chris are okay letting it go (as opposed to spending thousands upon thousands of dollars you'll never see a return on, like with "Little Bit of You"), I think it goes. They could push this into the top 5 if they wanted to. Maybe certain artists don't care to play radio's game? I do think a little bit of resentment from radio came into play here. We saw it with "Girl Crush". As soon as radio let it get top 3 it ran like the building was on fire. They had no choice but to play that one due to the public backlash/support. I actually think a lot of resistance came into play here. Sure, no numbers (sales or research) was bad or even questionable -- in fact, the opposite, but the way this one stalled out, it ran into resistance from programmers, which is just astounding. Mercury was pushing this (and still are -- it gained 31 spins and broke even in audience today) the whole time it bled audience and spins, but radio just wasn't budging. I think maybe they could have gotten this a few spots higher if they played their cards right with promotion but this is radio's fault, not the label's and certainly not the fans/listeners.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 12, 2016 8:32:58 GMT -5
Sorry to double post but this piece on a review of the ACM's by R.J. Curtis of All Access was quite the read, especially the last part on Chris Stapleton and his relationship with Country radio. All Access Thanks to Windmills for bringing this to my attention.
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trebor
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Post by trebor on Apr 12, 2016 9:27:53 GMT -5
jhomes87 Here are the missing sales (SoundScan/Pure Sales) 12/05/15 42,000 12/19/15 32,000 03/05/15 51,000 03/26/16 31,000 04/02/16 27,000 04/09/16 26,000
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trebor
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Post by trebor on Apr 12, 2016 10:02:04 GMT -5
Stapleton's music is more likely to stand the test of time than the fluff pop-country (or straight-up pop) music from Brett Eldredge, Cole Swindell, Chase Bryant, Old Dominion, Dustin Lynch, Blake Shelton, Thomas Rhett, Brantley Gilbert, Chris Lane, LoCash, Tucker Beathard, Granger Smith, Randy Houser, Brett Young, Chase Rice, etc. That's not to say that all of their music is bad, but does anybody really think that songs like "Mind Reader", "T-Shirt", "Snapback", "Little Bit Of You", "Came Here To Forget", "Rock On", "If The Boot Fits", etc. will be getting praise or be viewed as classics 5-10 years from now? Heck, most of these songs are getting panned in the present! Sorry for double posting! Brantley Gilbert doesn't really fit in there. If you discard "Bottoms Up" and "Small Town Throwdown" (which originated in a totally different climate and era) he's worlds apart from the rest of the named artists. He's sonically so different than any artist currently on the chart and certainly not fluff pop-country; but I'm with you whether his music is Country to start with (like everybody else currently charting or being hyped by corporate labels). Both "Halfway To Heaven" and "Just As I Am" (~980k pure sales) are eligible for RIAA 2xP Just my two cents. No offence and no back seat driving intended.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Apr 12, 2016 11:49:57 GMT -5
What gets me is how hypocritical radio comes off in this whole thing. When artists like Sam Hunt came along (and FGL and Brantley Gilbert before) we were led to believe that overwhelming sales was a big driver in their early success. If I remember correctly the early research for those were mixed, strong passion scores but above average dislike scores as well. So what radio has to answer for is why Hunt was given a free pass to radio stardom and Stapleton has been given the cold shoulder. The fact that Hunt's music bared no resemblance to country music was irrelevant we were told. Now Stapleton is "too country" or his music "doesn't fit" on country radio? I know those aren't direct quotes, but that's the attitude country radio has given since day 1. I've been wondering for a while if Stapleton was more Adele (singular talent who transcends, but doesn't reshape the genre) or Randy Travis (driving force to reshape the genre). There are parallels to be drawn both ways. I'm not sure we're any closer to finding out the answer, but it's pretty clear how radio feels. I just don't for the life of me understand why.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 12, 2016 12:07:56 GMT -5
What gets me is how hypocritical radio comes off in this whole thing. When artists like Sam Hunt came along (and FGL and Brantley Gilbert before) we were led to believe that overwhelming sales was a big driver in their early success. If I remember correctly the early research for those were mixed, strong passion scores but above average dislike scores as well. So what radio has to answer for is why Hunt was given a free pass to radio stardom and Stapleton has been given the cold shoulder. The fact that Hunt's music bared no resemblance to country music was irrelevant we were told. Now Stapleton is "too country" or his music "doesn't fit" on country radio? I know those aren't direct quotes, but that's the attitude country radio has given since day 1. I've been wondering for a while if Stapleton was more Adele (singular talent who transcends, but doesn't reshape the genre) or Randy Travis (driving force to reshape the genre). There are parallels to be drawn both ways. I'm not sure we're any closer to finding out the answer, but it's pretty clear how radio feels. I just don't for the life of me understand why. After reading multiple articles and reading many quotes on this matter, I (unfortunately) think this all boil's down to Country radio being bitter that they didn't break Stapleton into stardom and were forced to play "Nobody To Blame" (even though I wanted it to be much more to the story than that). They might view Chris has an "industry darling" that they're somehow too good for and prideful to spin. They puff their chest out they're the ones why FGL and Sam Hunt are stars. I think R.J. Curtis made a great point though; "logically, since listeners/fans want Stapleton, wouldn't it be a good idea to accept Chris and his music and just say you broke him in?" Country radio's given us shaky answers before so one more wouldn't hurt, right? Sales didn't stall "Nobody To Blame." Research didn't stall "Nobody To Blame." Country radio's stubbornness is what caused this song to peter out at #10.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Apr 12, 2016 21:34:11 GMT -5
What gets me is how hypocritical radio comes off in this whole thing. When artists like Sam Hunt came along (and FGL and Brantley Gilbert before) we were led to believe that overwhelming sales was a big driver in their early success. If I remember correctly the early research for those were mixed, strong passion scores but above average dislike scores as well. So what radio has to answer for is why Hunt was given a free pass to radio stardom and Stapleton has been given the cold shoulder. The fact that Hunt's music bared no resemblance to country music was irrelevant we were told. Now Stapleton is "too country" or his music "doesn't fit" on country radio? I know those aren't direct quotes, but that's the attitude country radio has given since day 1. I've been wondering for a while if Stapleton was more Adele (singular talent who transcends, but doesn't reshape the genre) or Randy Travis (driving force to reshape the genre). There are parallels to be drawn both ways. I'm not sure we're any closer to finding out the answer, but it's pretty clear how radio feels. I just don't for the life of me understand why. Again with the disclaimer that I don't have much interest in justifying the decision-making by country programmers here (and to flesh out a point that I made in my previous post in this thread), I think the issue with "Nobody to Blame" in particular is that "Nobody to Blame" is tough to segue into and tough to segue out of when it comes to the rest of the typical mainstream country radio playlist. In thinking about this, I'm reminded of a Lon Helton report of his first listen to a Nash Icons station that appeared in the 18 August 2014 issue of Country Aircheck (the article runs from page 4-5). The relevant portion:I think that segues/transitions are treated as a matter of major importance by programmers -- they impact the radio station's sound to the listener, potentially affecting time spent listening, and it's just common sense that a station would want to avoid discordance in its programming. I think the problem for "Nobody to Blame" at country radio may have been less how it was testing and more about how difficult it was to find a reasonable match to succeed or precede it -- it upset the consistent sonics of current "country" (I know, I know. Much of current "country" has awful sonics, so the idea that that a better-sung and better-engineered tune would actually be at a disadvantage is at once hilarious and sad. Let me also note that this is a version of the issue that has put females at a disadvantage on the format as well.) Matching sonics were not an issue that Florida-Georgia Line faced because their breakthrough at country radio was preceded by the likes of Jason Aldean's "Dirt Road Anthem" and Luke Bryan's "Country Girl (Shake It for Me)" -- they just took that sound and lyric further. Brantley Gilbert broke through at radio as a natural extension of Aldean's sound (after Jason scored some pretty big hits from Brantley songs), and then adapted to the rhythmic climate with songs like "Bottoms Up." Sam Hunt's emergence, meanwhile, was both an extension of the hip-hop production leanings of some of bro country and an answer to the overblown machismo and misogyny of that sub-genre just as Drake was for when he first emerged as a hip-hop superstar. So Sam represented the natural answer to and transition artist out of bro country's radio dominance when he emerged as radio fatigue with bro country began to build. I think that it would be fair to say that Chris Stapleton's breakthrough has been the strongest argument yet (though not the sole argument) that there is a sizable portion of country music fans hungry for more of a throwback country sound, perhaps especially one that incorporates soul and the blues. For radio purposes though, his breakthrough is probably not going to change much until and unless it inspires a wave of singles that can be incorporated alongside Stapleton tunes. I will say again, though, in what may be a deluded bit of optimism, that I think that "Tennessee Whiskey" in particular and perhaps even "Fire Away" would be easier for programmers to incorporate into current playlists than the more traditional sound of "Nobody to Blame." So I think that part of what is going on here is that "Nobody to Blame" would stick out like a sore thumb amidst the rest of the format's currents (mostly for being as traditional country as it is, and that, of course, is a testament to country radio's lack of interest in country music). But that's not to deny prejudice on the part of programmers, either -- that All Access column linked by sabre14 makes it clear that some of that exists, too. So we'll see what happens when Chris Stapleton gives country radio another single to play. In the meantime, his performance of multiple album tracks on the many high-profile TV stages that he has graced since his breakthrough and the release of the "Fire Away" video makes clear that his promotion of the album won't be constrained by radio. And that is both a relief and the smart play.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Apr 13, 2016 8:57:45 GMT -5
This may be mounting a comeback after all. Picked up 51 spins and 298k in audience...
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Apr 13, 2016 9:06:56 GMT -5
^One can only hope.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Apr 13, 2016 9:48:18 GMT -5
What gets me is how hypocritical radio comes off in this whole thing. When artists like Sam Hunt came along (and FGL and Brantley Gilbert before) we were led to believe that overwhelming sales was a big driver in their early success. If I remember correctly the early research for those were mixed, strong passion scores but above average dislike scores as well. So what radio has to answer for is why Hunt was given a free pass to radio stardom and Stapleton has been given the cold shoulder. The fact that Hunt's music bared no resemblance to country music was irrelevant we were told. Now Stapleton is "too country" or his music "doesn't fit" on country radio? I know those aren't direct quotes, but that's the attitude country radio has given since day 1. I've been wondering for a while if Stapleton was more Adele (singular talent who transcends, but doesn't reshape the genre) or Randy Travis (driving force to reshape the genre). There are parallels to be drawn both ways. I'm not sure we're any closer to finding out the answer, but it's pretty clear how radio feels. I just don't for the life of me understand why. Again with the disclaimer that I don't have much interest in justifying the decision-making by country programmers here (and to flesh out a point that I made in my previous post in this thread), I think the issue with "Nobody to Blame" in particular is that "Nobody to Blame" is tough to segue into and tough to segue out of when it comes to the rest of the typical mainstream country radio playlist. In thinking about this, I'm reminded of a Lon Helton report of his first listen to a Nash Icons station that appeared in the 18 August 2014 issue of Country Aircheck (the article runs from page 4-5). The relevant portion:I think that segues/transitions are treated as a matter of major importance by programmers -- they impact the radio station's sound to the listener, potentially affecting time spent listening, and it's just common sense that a station would want to avoid discordance in its programming. I think the problem for "Nobody to Blame" at country radio may have been less how it was testing and more about how difficult it was to find a reasonable match to succeed or precede it -- it upset the consistent sonics of current "country" (I know, I know. Much of current "country" has awful sonics, so the idea that that a better-sung and better-engineered tune would actually be at a disadvantage is at once hilarious and sad. Let me also note that this is a version of the issue that has put females at a disadvantage on the format as well.) Matching sonics were not an issue that Florida-Georgia Line faced because their breakthrough at country radio was preceded by the likes of Jason Aldean's "Dirt Road Anthem" and Luke Bryan's "Country Girl (Shake It for Me)" -- they just took that sound and lyric further. Brantley Gilbert broke through at radio as a natural extension of Aldean's sound (after Jason scored some pretty big hits from Brantley songs), and then adapted to the rhythmic climate with songs like "Bottoms Up." Sam Hunt's emergence, meanwhile, was both an extension of the hip-hop production leanings of some of bro country and an answer to the overblown machismo and misogyny of that sub-genre just as Drake was for when he first emerged as a hip-hop superstar. So Sam represented the natural answer to and transition artist out of bro country's radio dominance when he emerged as radio fatigue with bro country began to build. I think that it would be fair to say that Chris Stapleton's breakthrough has been the strongest argument yet (though not the sole argument) that there is a sizable portion of country music fans hungry for more of a throwback country sound, perhaps especially one that incorporates soul and the blues. For radio purposes though, his breakthrough is probably not going to change much until and unless it inspires a wave of singles that can be incorporated alongside Stapleton tunes. I will say again, though, in what may be a deluded bit of optimism, that I think that "Tennessee Whiskey" in particular and perhaps even "Fire Away" would be easier for programmers to incorporate into current playlists than the more traditional sound of "Nobody to Blame." So I think that part of what is going on here is that "Nobody to Blame" would stick out like a sore thumb amidst the rest of the format's currents (mostly for being as traditional country as it is, and that, of course, is a testament to country radio's lack of interest in country music). But that's not to deny prejudice on the part of programmers, either -- that All Access column linked by sabre14 makes it clear that some of that exists, too. So we'll see what happens when Chris Stapleton gives country radio another single to play. In the meantime, his performance of multiple album tracks on the many high-profile TV stages that he has graced since his breakthrough and the release of the "Fire Away" video makes clear that his promotion of the album won't be constrained by radio. And that is both a relief and the smart play. My only disagreement to this is that to my ears, Hunt's debut was just as jarring a segue. Maybe my particular dislike for that style of music inflated it, but Take Your Time always stood out like a sore thumb to me. Your point about FGL and BG is well taken though. I wonder if Maren Morris' recent struggles can be linked to this as well.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 13, 2016 11:41:27 GMT -5
This may be mounting a comeback after all. Picked up 51 spins and 298k in audience... Its not that surprising since Mercury is still promoting it. They've run a banner ad in Aircheck every weekday for this song since the ACM's and today was the first day in forever this song has gained both spins and audience. On one hand I'm happy the label is still promoting this one (not going down without a fight) but at the same time I like to see them give radio a new sing since this one has been around since early November, with relatively high airplay most weeks charting. "Nobody To Blame" has now gained 82 spins over the past two days but has only 4 net spins gained and just under 100k in audience gained, so far in this Mediabase tracking week (since Sunday's update). It'll need to put up more than that over the next few days if it hopes to re-enter Billboard and get back to the top 10. I still don't see this one mounting any sort of substantial comeback. If it does have a net gain in spins from this past Sunday (to this Sunday's update), it'll regain its bullet on Mediabase and be guaranteed two more chart appearances after that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2016 18:07:40 GMT -5
As much as I love this song and as much as I think Chris should be the most popular artist on radio at the moment, it's pretty clear that radio is showing resistance to this one and as a result it's unlikely to climb much further. Maybe his next single will face the same resistance (with radio remaining petty), but I still think it's probably better to move on.
I'm still pulling for "Parachute" as the next single, but "Tennessee Whiskey" is still in the top 20 on the country iTunes chart, so it'd be hard to argue against that one. "Fire Away" is right around the #20 spot, "Traveller" is in the 60's, "What Are You Listening To?" is in the 90's, and both "Parachute" and "Whiskey And You" are well within the top 200.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Apr 14, 2016 0:13:20 GMT -5
My only disagreement to this is that to my ears, Hunt's debut was just as jarring a segue. Maybe my particular dislike for that style of music inflated it, but Take Your Time always stood out like a sore thumb to me. Your point about FGL and BG is well taken though. I wonder if Maren Morris' recent struggles can be linked to this as well. I just wanted to point out that "Leave The Night On" was Sam Hunt's first main release to country radio. But your point still stands! I would describe LTNO as not being as jarring as "Take Your Time", but still being pretty darn poppy.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 15, 2016 12:49:35 GMT -5
"Nobody To Blame" has gained 51 spins on Mediabase since Sunday, so this looks to re-bullet as long as disaster doesn't strike in Saturday and/or Sunday's update.
It's only gained less than 300k in audience on Mediabase this week, so I'm guessing this won't re-enter Billboard unless it can see better audience gains.
I love the song but I would move on to the next single, even if that song's success is iffy given "Nobody To Blame's" demise. Radio seems to have spoken on the current single. It's just not worth the fight anymore.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 16, 2016 16:56:43 GMT -5
"Nobody To Blame" gained 56 spins today (most of them overnight), so it has now gained 107 spins this Mediabase tracking week. That means it will regain its bullet on MB this week and be guaranteed at least two more chart appearances after this upcoming Monday's published chart.
Chris' song has only gained 300k in audience since Sunday though.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 18, 2016 10:43:14 GMT -5
"Nobody To Blame" is finally done. It lost 144 spins and 800k in audience today. Mercury probably kept this one alone 1-2 weeks longer than they should have. It'll now stay on the Mediabase chart two more weeks after today since it regained its bullet this week by its spins gained. It will stay recurrent on Billboard. Peaked at #10 on both charts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 11:37:20 GMT -5
Yep, this one's clearly done. Pretty amazing for the song of the year.
It's actually comical to watch what's going on here. Radio is in a position they've never been in. They always were the ones in charge of breaking artists and keeping their careers going. You always heard "I'd like to thank country radio" at award shows. I think radio is legitimately mad about the success of people like Stapleton and Musgraves (along with songs like "Girl Crush") because we've now entered a time where these songs and artists don't need radio to be successful.
It's almost like radio is in panic mode. It's like when the old businessman rejects new technology. You can't fight something like that. There's a winner and a loser--and you all know the loser.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Apr 18, 2016 16:17:44 GMT -5
I have a buddy who I am good friends with and he is a Country Music Radio DJ and has been for a good 30 years. He just told me on Facebook that the label Mercury is sending out "Parachute" as the next single from 'Traveller'.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 18, 2016 16:19:46 GMT -5
I have a buddy who I am good friends with and he is a Country Music Radio DJ and has been for a good 30 years. He just told me on Facebook that the label Mercury is sending out "Parachute" as the next single from 'Traveller'. Someone will like that. Like a certain administrator here at Pulse. Just started page #10. Not bad for a single that peaked at #10. Some #1 singles threads don't even get half as many pages.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 18, 2016 16:41:19 GMT -5
I have a buddy who I am good friends with and he is a Country Music Radio DJ and has been for a good 30 years. He just told me on Facebook that the label Mercury is sending out "Parachute" as the next single from 'Traveller'. Someone will like that. Like a certain administrator here at Pulse. Just started page #10. Not bad for a single that peaked at #10. Some #1 singles threads don't even get half as many pages. Its my favorite song from "Traveller" as well. :)
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