musicbuff78
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Post by musicbuff78 on Aug 21, 2008 21:36:24 GMT -5
LOL....maybe a little optimistic???
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Aug 22, 2008 0:46:20 GMT -5
LOL....maybe a little optimistic??? Are you referring to Zachs post about Carrie not winning anything other than Female Vocalist? I do not think that this would be too much of a stretch. Though not to the same extent as Entertainer, males still dominate the other categories. Only two females have won Album or Song in the last 10 years. They have had more success in the Single category. While Carrie has continued her string of number ones, none of them as of yet have had the same commerical impact as BHC. So while she could get a nomination for Single, I do not see a win for her there.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Aug 22, 2008 1:05:03 GMT -5
^Not so sure on that one. She may win FV, but don't know about album and definately not Single or Song..."Stay" should be a shoe-in in probably both categories, most likely. Vocalist award, she'll be nominated and win Album of the year, she'll be nominated but won't win. CR has had three straight number one songs, with JAD probably being the 4th, it's sold over 2.2. million copies. That's the problem. It's too successful. Wierd, but true. jmo
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Post by zaclord on Aug 22, 2008 16:13:19 GMT -5
i don't think she has a chance to win single/song of the year. she might not even be nominated. if i had to pick the 5 best songs from the last year "Last Name" and "All-American Girl" would not be in my top 5. "So Small" would, but for some reason no one here seems to think it will get a nomination.
i agree that Carrie should easily be the victor of FVotY, but i don't know about Album. these award shows typically like the more traditional style albums over the ones that are the more successful ones. just look at the past winners (now correct me if i am getting mixed up between the ACM and CMA winners again): Lee Ann Womack's last album, George Strait's "It Just Comes Natural (i believe that won). and didn't Loretta Lynn win Album one year? well my point is, i personally think they always choose horrible albums to win AotY. but didn't "Some Hearts" win AotY at some award show? well with all that said, i think George, Alan, and Alison Krauss/Robert Plant will be the ones to look out for for Aoty. but i don't think any deserve a nomination as there are plenty of better albums than that within the last year.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Aug 22, 2008 16:35:58 GMT -5
I agree with you to an extent. I think Carrie has to be considered the odds on favorite to win FVotY. Taylor and Miranda have lots of momentum, but neither have had the kind of success across the board in the last year that Carrie has had. I agree with zac on single and song of the year, I think she'll be lucky to be nominated for either. Although it's not my favorite, Stay is pretty much a shoe-in to win Song of the Year, and could be a frontrunner for Single as well, so even if nominated I don't see Carrie winning either of those awards. As far as album goes, I think CR will be nominated (as well it should be), but I think Alan Jackson should win that category. Good Time is terrific album, the best tradionally inspired mainstream album I've heard in quite a while. CR is a worthy album no doubt, but I like AJ's chances to win AotY.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 22, 2008 20:40:57 GMT -5
I really think Taylor could get Female Vocalist. I mean look at how much her album has sold and how long it's been on top the charts. Plus "Our Song" was a HUGE hit and "Should've Said No" has just spent two weeks at #1 and she has 3 other top 5 hits. Sounds like plenty of success to me.
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Zach
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Post by Zach on Aug 22, 2008 22:12:55 GMT -5
^That's what I'm seriously thinking myself. I know Carrie has done far and beyond all other females on radio, but Taylor has moved many units of her album in the past year (more than almost anyone I believe) and has had new music bouncing around here and there and is on a crazy popularity high right now. This will be a very tight race any which way it turns out.
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tsr
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Post by tsr on Aug 22, 2008 22:20:48 GMT -5
I think it may be Taylor's year by a slight margin... OS being a 6 week #1, with PtB being a top 3 hit, SSN being close to top 10 when the eligibility period ended (is that right?) and her album sales kind of give it away, but hey that's just my opinion.
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what
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Post by what on Aug 22, 2008 22:39:24 GMT -5
i still think it'll be carrie's to lose. when the eligibility pd ended, cr is around 2.2M, i think, and sh was still selling well. all 3 singles went to #1. and imo, its not just the "numbers" success. carrie's been highly visible in events outside country world, and has gven amazing performnces on all of them, representng country music very well. praying for time, sound of music, go your own way, etc., not to mention all her other live performnces and her touring.
if there's a threat to carrie, i think its miranda. and while i dont dislike taylor, i just thnk its too much to give her a "vocalist" award now. sometime down the road maybe, when her voice imprves and matures. just not now...
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Post by zaclord on Aug 22, 2008 22:59:55 GMT -5
^100% my thoughts. very very well said. i love Taylor but to give her that award this year wouldn't seem right. hopefully she can win it sometime down the road though
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 23, 2008 7:32:07 GMT -5
Well, I do agree that Carrie has a better voice than Taylor but that doesn't mean Taylor doesn't deserve to win the award. She's had too much success this year to ignore and her voice has improved based on her live performances.
Look at Kenny winning the male vocalist award for example and he certainly doesn't have the best voice in country music. It's not always based on who has the best voice. If that were true then Josh Turner, Trace Adkins, Phil Vassar and many other artists would be winning the male vocalist award. It's based on success.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 23, 2008 9:04:37 GMT -5
The FVotY discussion is getting a bit circular. Please try not to make arguments that have already been made in this thread. This is the CMA Predictions thread, so your post should be about how you think the CMA will vote, not how you think the CMA should vote. In other words, once again, your defense of your favorite artist is off-topic. Thanks.
I don't think comparing the way voting has gone for MVotY is as relevant to what is likely to happen in the FVotY category as how voting as historically gone in the FVotY category. If you look at the past CMA winners in the FVotY category, the voters have shown a pretty clear preference for great singers over more limited singers, even if the more limited singers have had more commercial impact.
Moreover, if you're going to take "success" or commercial impact as your barometer, I don't think you can overlook touring. Of the likely FVotY nominees, only Reba, Alison Krauss, and Carrie have headlined or coheadlined their own tours in the eligibility period, correct? Martina may have had some of her headlining tour during the eligibility period, as well. Again, touring success isn't the sole determinant of commercial impact, but nor is airplay or album sales.
It is facile to try to reduce voting in this category to just one or two factors. In my view, the CMA voters are typically looking for a happy medium between commercial success, great singing/great songs and critical acclaim. I don't think Carrie's FVotY wins the last two years have been solely because of her album sales and radio play -- I think Faith and Martina would have trumped Carrie if Carrie weren't also considered a great vocalist singing great songs.
I don't think Taylor's commercial impact is enough to overcome her limitations as a singer in the voters' eyes, especially not in a year when more critically well-regarded singers have experienced a high level of commercial success. To wit: Miranda had a gold album with tons of critical acclaim and scored her first top-10, Alison Krauss sold over a million copies of her duets album with Robert Plant and had a successful co-headlining tour, Reba sold over a million copies of her duets album and had a successful co-headlining tour (for which Reba will get much of the credit given that her co-headliner is newer to the scene and in another genre) and Carrie did all the things that have already been mentioned in this thread. All four of these ladies have had more than enough commercial success to pass a sort of "relevance" threshold that would make CMA voters comfortable voting for them in this category.
Voting in this category isn't about who is the "most" anything or the "best" anything -- I think it's about who fares best across different criteria. And sure, buzz matters. The one thing that may give Taylor a chance is that, in the run-up to the release of her sophomore album, she will be highly visible during the voting period that will determine the winner (the middle two weeks in October, I believe). And Big Machine seems to be campaigning like mad for her. I still see Carrie, Miranda and even Alison Krauss as stronger contenders for the win, but we shall see.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Aug 23, 2008 9:43:09 GMT -5
I agree with everything that dudley has written (as is too often the case). I do think we have seen exceptions. Gretchen Wilson is the most recent that comes to mind. However, there are two significant differences between then and now. One, around the time of her mega-debut, the competition, commercially speaking, was extremely limited. She was too successful and her female counterparts were almost non-existant during the eligibility period so she really could not be denied. (Admittedly, there were times when I thought Shania could not be denied.) The other difference is Gretchen's age. I think the CMA voters were able to overlook her novelty because she was older. I think Taylor's age is what will keep her from winning in the short term, moreso than what might be called a limited vocal performance.
So, I think the battle will be between Carrie and Miranda. If the voters lean commercially, they will give it to Carrie. If they lean traditionally, they will give it to Miranda. If Taylor does sneak in a win, I will not cry foul and she does make a solid case for herself but I will be surprised.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 23, 2008 10:16:39 GMT -5
I just don't think Miranda has had enough success to win. If it comes between her and Carrie it'll be Carrie.
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Stephen
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Post by Stephen on Aug 23, 2008 11:51:03 GMT -5
I just don't think Miranda has had enough success to win. If it comes between her and Carrie it'll be Carrie. Probably because Carrie trumps her in the success and vocal category, but Miranda has a critically-acclaimed album. Carrie's album recieved generally positive reviews, but Miranda's was almost exalted. Either way, both are deserving.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 23, 2008 12:03:04 GMT -5
I just don't think Miranda has had enough success to win. If it comes between her and Carrie it'll be Carrie. Probably because Carrie trumps her in the success and vocal category, but Miranda has a critically-acclaimed album. Carrie's album recieved generally positive reviews, but Miranda's was almost exalted. Either way, both are deserving. Yeah, this is going to be a close race.
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tsharky
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Post by tsharky on Aug 23, 2008 15:05:09 GMT -5
I agree with dudley too-- Female vocalist will be between Carrie and Miranda-- because sales don't mean much if you don't have the vocal talent to back them up.The voters will look back at the live vocal performances fresh in their minds- and that will help Carrie and Miranda, but hurt others.
I do think it will be a dog fight this year for many categories---- not just female vocalist. Male vocalist is not a cake walk either. Brad or Keith seem to be the favorites-- but kenny will get some votes as well...
EOTY is not a cake walk either for kenny this year. Many people raved about Keith Urban's tour, etc. Carrie will win just by getting a nomination-- that is all I hope for. there is no way she will win this category yet.
Single and Song could be dominated by Stay again-- unless the voters are finally sick of that song.
I personally think Alan Jackson could get alot of love this year-- in album, song for Small Town Southern Man, etc- and even some votes for male vocalist-- you never know. Trace could sneak in too.
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Post by carriefan0209 on Aug 23, 2008 15:16:14 GMT -5
and back to the predictions.............
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 23, 2008 15:49:34 GMT -5
Does anybody think we'll get a surprise song for song or single of the year. You know, something that didn't make #1. I know Gary Allan's "Watching Airplanes" was nominated for something last year. Maybe "Love Don't Live Here" or "Love is a Beautiful Thing"? How about "Winner at a Losing Game"?
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what
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Post by what on Aug 23, 2008 16:37:50 GMT -5
^^im pretty sure there will be one song that will be a surprise nominee in the song/single category. prob in the album category too. for me, the "good" surprise nominees are the best thing in these award shows, second of course to my fave artists winning.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 23, 2008 19:04:44 GMT -5
^^im pretty sure there will be one song that will be a surprise nominee in the song/single category. prob in the album category too. for me, the "good" surprise nominees are the best thing in these award shows, second of course to my fave artists winning. Yeah, I know I was shocked (and happy) when I heard Gary was nominated for "Watching Airplanes." Another thing that would make me happy and surprised is Trace Adkins getting a male vocalist nomination. He SO deserves it. I didn't put it in my predictions lists because I doubt it'll happen.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Aug 24, 2008 1:12:45 GMT -5
Here is my final submission:
Entertainer of the Year Kenny Chesney Brad Paisley Rascal Flatts Keith Urban George Strait
Male Vocalist of the Year George Strait Brad Paisley Kenny Chesney Keith Urban Alan Jackson
Female Vocalist of the Year Carrie Underwood Taylor Swift Miranda Lambert Reba McEntire Trisha Yearwood
Horizon Award James Otto Chuck Wicks Lady Antebellum Jason Michael Carrol Kellie Pickler
Vocal Group of the Year Rascal Flatts Lady Antebellum Little Big Town Emerson Drive Lost Trailers
Vocal Duo of the Year Brooks & Dunn Sugarland Montgomery Gentry Big and Rich Halfway To Hazard
Single of the Year "Our Song" - Taylor Swift "I Saw God Today" - George Strait "Better as a Memory" - Kenny Chesney "Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley "You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins
Song of the Year "Better as a Memory" - Kenny Chesney "Gunpowder & Lead" - Miranda Lambert "Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley "I Saw God Today" - George Strait "Stay" - Sugarland
Album of the Year George Strait - Troubadour Alan Jackson - Good Time Kenny Chesney - Who I Am: Poets and Pirates Carrie Underwood - Carnival Ride Reba - Duets
Musical Event of the Year "Life in a Northern Town" - Suglarland, Little Big Town and Jake Owen "Every Other Weekend" - Reba McEntire/Kenny Chesney "Shiftwork" - Kenny Chesney/George Strait "Ready Set Dont Go" - Billy and Miley "Another Try" - Josh Turner/Trisha Yearwood
Music Video of the Year Brad Paisley - "Waitin' on a Woman" Carrie Underwood - "All American Girl" Alan Jackson - "Small Town Southern Man" Sugarland - "Stay" Taylor Swift - Our Song
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Post by ontheroadwith on Aug 24, 2008 1:54:50 GMT -5
Just remember (and this has been said before) look how successful Shania is and never won female vocalist. I honestly don't think Taylor will ever win. Her vocals are so weak when you look at the strength of Carrie. I think Miranda will trump Carrie before Taylor does.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 24, 2008 6:36:48 GMT -5
Just remember (and this has been said before) look how successful Shania is and never won female vocalist. I honestly don't think Taylor will ever win. Her vocals are so weak when you look at the strength of Carrie. I think Miranda will trump Carrie before Taylor does. I would have never believed Shania hasn't won female vocalist. That is just unbelievable to me, especially when you consider that many lesser known female singers have won (Lee Ann Womack and Sara Evans being the latest examples). I guess it goes to show you that you don't need to win every award to be a superstar.
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cufan7
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Post by cufan7 on Aug 24, 2008 9:18:43 GMT -5
I can honestly say I think Carrie will get a nomination for EOTY. I know I'm a fan and all, but I do think they'll give her one. And to be honest, I think if she gets a nomination, the buzz will be huge, and might just give her a win. Anyone agree?
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Post by ontheroadwith on Aug 24, 2008 9:38:44 GMT -5
I can honestly say I think Carrie will get a nomination for EOTY. I know I'm a fan and all, but I do think they'll give her one. And to be honest, I think if she gets a nomination, the buzz will be huge, and might just give her a win. Anyone agree? No.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 24, 2008 9:56:51 GMT -5
I can honestly say I think Carrie will get a nomination for EOTY. I know I'm a fan and all, but I do think they'll give her one. And to be honest, I think if she gets a nomination, the buzz will be huge, and might just give her a win. Anyone agree? No. Hee! Yeah, I don't see Carrie winning EotY, either. It'll be a victory if she manages to get nominated (I think she deserves a nomination, but whether the CMA voters will put her through is another story). The only person I see with a chance to unseat Kenny in the EotY category is Keith Urban on the strength of the rave reviews for his live show. Kenny has buzz because of his overwhelming numbers (and he does get credited with delivering what his fans want live). But Keith has taken the EotY award once before without topping Kenny's numbers and it seems to me that Nashville is glad to see Keith so productive again and so happy on stage. Keith's impressive guitar work and incredible stage charisma elevate many of his songs, and the fact that Keith's live show is getting a showcase through "You Look Good in My Shirt" (well, the video, anyway) might sharpen voter awareness of an alternative to Kenny in that category. If Keith pulls the upset, I think it might have implications for the Album of the Year race, so I'm going to pick up on a comment kw9461 made upthread: As far as album goes, I think CR will be nominated (as well it should be), but I think Alan Jackson should win that category. Good Time is terrific album, the best tradionally inspired mainstream album I've heard in quite a while. CR is a worthy album no doubt, but I like AJ's chances to win AotY. I agree here -- right now, I see Alan Jackson's Good Time as the big favorite to win AotY. He wrote the whole album by himself and has garnered very good reviews for it. The sound of the album should appeal to CMA voters, as Alan continues to represent traditional country without sounding dated. And the album's commercial impact has been registered through over 500K in sales and two consecutive multi-week #1s. However, if Kenny doesn't take EotY, I can see Poets & Pirates challenging in this category. I tend to think that CMA voters will not want Kenny to go home empty-handed, so if somehow Keith wins EotY, that could mean a sort of compensatory win for Kenny in AotY or MVotY. Or, I suppose Alan could get the MVotY win (which potentially leaves Brad out unless he picks up something in Single or Song of the Year)...but AotY might make more sense given that Alan's contributions to the album stretch beyond his vocals.
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Post by rockingcountry on Aug 24, 2008 11:40:43 GMT -5
I would really be disappointed if Kenny gets Entertainer this year. Now I really like Kenny but he's won it for several years now and someone else deserves to shine now. I know Keith has worked so hard on the road and puts on an absoutely FANTASTIC show. Same can be said for Brad. I'd be thrilled if one of those two took the trophy from Kenny. I too would be SO HAPPY if Carrie gets the nomination for Entertainer. I know she has absolutely zero chance of winning but it hasn't been fair for year after year for the females to be shut out of that category. I know that Carrie, Taylor and Miranda all 3 put on fantastic shows and are just as good as the males.
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what
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Post by what on Aug 24, 2008 11:46:13 GMT -5
I would have never believed Shania hasn't won female vocalist. That is just unbelievable to me, especially when you consider that many lesser known female singers have won (Lee Ann Womack and Sara Evans being the latest examples). yeah, like wht dudley said before, its not solely the commercial success that determines the fvoty winner. if it was, shania could have had 2 wins easily, i think. when shania was still in the scene, no one was bigger than her. i was a bit surprised too when i learned she hasnt won fvoty. i dont quite get this. bec as i understand it, voters vote on the ballot they are given and then they submit that. so for example, if i vote on the ballot, i would choose who i think should or want to win. but i dunno how others will vote, so i dont know how things will sway to who will win or not. like if i think kenny deserves both eoty and aoty, i will vote for him on both, but i will not know how others are voting for my vote to be "influenced" on givng others a chance, like me knowing kenny will win eoty for sure so id just vote for brad for mvoty. the only way i see "compensatory" awards work, is that, the cma officials open the ballots when theyre submitted, tally the winners from the ballots, and then "redistribute" the votes to give "compensatory" awards. like if they initially see kenny winning eoty, aoty and mvoty straight from the ballots, thye might "move" some votes to give brad mvoty to give him one award at least. but ive always thought the winners are tallied by an indepndent company and no one will knw until the show?? ??? so the "compensatory" wins doesnt make sense to me...and i dont think the possibility of a shutout for anyone is far-fetchd, since brad got shut out before, right? i hope what im trying to say makes sense....
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 24, 2008 12:12:35 GMT -5
the only way i see "compensatory" awards work, is that, the cma officials open the ballots when theyre submitted, tally the winners from the ballots, and then "redistribute" the votes to give "compensatory" awards. like if they initially see kenny winning eoty, aoty and mvoty straight from the ballots, thye might "move" some votes to give brad mvoty to give him one award at least. but ive always thought the winners are tallied by an indepndent company and no one will knw until the show?? ??? so the "compensatory" wins doesnt make sense to me...and i dont think the possibility of a shutout for anyone is far-fetchd, since brad got shut out before, right? i hope what im trying to say makes sense.... Sorry, I was being glib. I definitely didn't mean to imply any redistribution. By "compensatory," I was thinking more along the lines of individual voters spreading their votes across different categories for different artists because they feel each artist deserves some recognition. So, say, if someone voted Keith for EotY, that person might feel like Kenny deserves something and vote for him in MVotY or AotY. That factor could be a tiebreaker if a voter doesn't have strong feelings between the nominees in any given category. And I was speculating that this could happen en masse -- that, say, if enough people vote Keith in EotY, that could mean a bunch of people voting Kenny in another major category because they feel he deserves something if not EotY. I hope that makes more sense. This was purely guesswork on my part, in any case, and I agree with you that a shutout for any of the major artists isn't that far-fetched.
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