queencello
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Post by queencello on Mar 3, 2009 12:53:21 GMT -5
First of all this is infinitely better than LO, as are most songs on his album. But while I think this is a pretty good HAC song, I don't think it's a good CHR song. IMO, it doesn't have any sort of hook that makes it stand out on pop. I think Declaration and Heroes are much better suited for CHR.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Mar 3, 2009 13:30:45 GMT -5
You know, one of the most interesting things about this album is how much variation of opinion there is about which songs are "radio" and which ones aren't. It seems like there isn't one or two songs most people (inside and outside his fanbase) coalesce around. I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing.
I hadn't fully realized it before, but in some ways this is the typical idol 1st album. Usually they record a bunch of songs that all fit under the same umbrella (i.e. "pop", "R&B", "country") but come at it from a variety of angles. It's like they are trying out styles in search of the artist's identity, a la Jordin Sparks. This one is a little like that in that he has wildly different styles of "rock" in there, but also breaks from the tradition in that he wrote enough of the songs to have a certain kind of lyrical voice emerge. It makes me wonder how all this is going to play out, since he seems to know who he is to a degree, but the songs they are releasing so far are missing his specific artistic voice. I think it can all work out depending on how many songs they release, but it will interesting to see where they go from here, and what kind of album he puts out next.
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LittleMissMoonshine
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Post by LittleMissMoonshine on Mar 3, 2009 13:35:52 GMT -5
So, hopefully this time the video's storyline has even a slight connection to the lyrics. I'm still trying to figure out WTF they were thinking with the teen angst in the LO video. Oh, and please no leading actor. David can act, let him.
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blurple
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Post by blurple on Mar 3, 2009 14:12:23 GMT -5
It doesn't matter if the song is good or not. An Idol performance alone would guarantee it huge download numbers. This would definitely outpeak LO and I predict at least a Top 10 finish.
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penpal99
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Post by penpal99 on Mar 3, 2009 14:27:04 GMT -5
^Top 10 or 5 finisher in AC and HAC - thats for sure. But unlikely in CHR - its just too mellow - though it has a nice tune to it.
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soundUPsceneDOWN
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Post by soundUPsceneDOWN on Mar 3, 2009 14:54:01 GMT -5
It doesn't matter if the song is good or not. An Idol performance alone would guarantee it huge download numbers. This would definitely outpeak LO and I predict at least a Top 10 finish. Download-wise, it could top LO after an Idol performance (well, it could top it initially, and then it would have to sustain itself). But Idol is hit or miss as far as that translating to pop airplay. Sometimes it helps a song, other times it doesn't. I think CBTM has a very good shot on Hot AC, and eventually AC. I honestly don't have any clue how this will do on pop. Novelty songs are doing well on pop right now and that is major suckage. But AAR have opened up a window for alternative songs. Not that this is alternative, but it's not rhythmic, which is a staple of pop radio. I've almost given up on figuring out what pop radio will embrace, because traditional CHR songs are being replaced by traditional urban or traditional rhythmic or traditional alternative songs on CHR playlists. What was CHR doesn't seem to be CHR anymore.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 14:56:58 GMT -5
An AI performance would likely get it briefly in the top 10 on itunes, and around #18 on the H100. But this won't outpeak LO or even TOML on CHR or HAC, I'm sure of it.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 15:00:55 GMT -5
You know, one of the most interesting things about this album is how much variation of opinion there is about which songs are "radio" and which ones aren't. It seems like there isn't one or two songs most people (inside and outside his fanbase) coalesce around. I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing. That mostly seems true, though I've seen an awful lot of people who think Heroes is a good choice, so I think that's one that most people agree on, and part of the reason why I think it's the smartest choice on the album for a CHR/HAC single. After Heroes though, you're right the opinions on his singles do seem to differ drastically from person to person.
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blurple
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Post by blurple on Mar 3, 2009 15:03:24 GMT -5
Brooke who is a 5th (?) place finisher got her song up to #7 on Itunes, I think this is guaranteed a Top 3 on Itunes for at least a week. And I bet that performance would convince radios to play him as well.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 15:08:43 GMT -5
Brooke who is a 5th (?) place finisher got her song up to #7 on Itunes, I think this is guaranteed a Top 3 on Itunes for at least a week. And I bet that performance would convince radios to play him as well. Brooke's song did unusually well even for an AI performance. Plus she also had the advantage of it being her first single and pretty much the first time people had heard the song, so it had that "brand new" thing going for it, which always helps initially in digital sales. When Daughtry's WAN was heavily promoted on Idol Gives Back he managed to get a little time in the top ten of iTunes, and a #18 peak that week on the H100. I can't fathom that Cook would be able to do any better than that since he's nowhere near as big as Daughtry at the time, and CBTM is nowhere near the song that WAN is. Plus Cook had such lukewarm digital sales with LO, I can't see why CBTM would be the song to turn that around.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 15:10:16 GMT -5
And remember when Blake performed his 2nd single on Idol last year? It did virtually nothing for digital sales of the song, and it didn't even crack the Hot 100. So it can go either way.
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blurple
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Post by blurple on Mar 3, 2009 15:16:42 GMT -5
Brooke who is a 5th (?) place finisher got her song up to #7 on Itunes, I think this is guaranteed a Top 3 on Itunes for at least a week. And I bet that performance would convince radios to play him as well. Brooke's song did unusually well even for an AI performance. Plus she also had the advantage of it being her first single and pretty much the first time people had heard the song, so it had that "brand new" thing going for it, which always helps initially in digital sales. When Daughtry's WAN was heavily promoted on Idol Gives Back he managed to get a little time in the top ten of iTunes, and a #18 peak that week on the H100. I can't fathom that Cook would be able to do any better than that since he's nowhere near as big as Daughtry at the time, and CBTM is nowhere near the song that WAN is. Plus Cook had such lukewarm digital sales with LO, I can't see why CBTM would be the song to turn that around. Yeah I see where you're coming from but I don't think it's comparable. We have to remember that at that time WAN is already a 5th single, Daughtry is at about 4M in album sales and there were a LOT of performances shown at that show so I don't see why CBTM couldn't do better when David's performance would be a solo showcase of him, he's the newest AI winner, CBTM is only a 2nd single and the album is at what just a million in sales. So David has that "fresh new music" working for him like what you said worked for Brooke. So IMO regardless of CBTM's quality or what not, it would do extremely well in digital sales just because of that AI performance. I would be extremely shocked if it doesn't go Top 3 at least. If there's no competition, maybe even #1. ETA: Blake performed?! ??? Well that's a good point then. It can go both ways, I just think this would work on Cook's favor.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 15:23:21 GMT -5
Brooke's song did unusually well even for an AI performance. Plus she also had the advantage of it being her first single and pretty much the first time people had heard the song, so it had that "brand new" thing going for it, which always helps initially in digital sales. When Daughtry's WAN was heavily promoted on Idol Gives Back he managed to get a little time in the top ten of iTunes, and a #18 peak that week on the H100. I can't fathom that Cook would be able to do any better than that since he's nowhere near as big as Daughtry at the time, and CBTM is nowhere near the song that WAN is. Plus Cook had such lukewarm digital sales with LO, I can't see why CBTM would be the song to turn that around. Yeah I see where you're coming from but I don't think it's comparable. We have to remember that at that time WAN is already a 5th single, Daughtry is at about 4M in album sales and there were a LOT of performances shown at that show so I don't see why CBTM couldn't do better when David's performance would be a solo showcase of him, he's the newest AI winner, CBTM is only a 2nd single and the album is at what just a million in sales. So David has that "fresh new music" working for him like what you said worked for Brooke. So IMO regardless of CBTM's quality or what not, it would do extremely well in digital sales just because of that AI performance. I would be extremely shocked if it doesn't go Top 3 at least. If there's no competition, maybe even #1. ETA: Blake performed?! ??? Well that's a good point then. It can go both ways, I just think this would work on Cook's favor. Yeah, Blake performed How Many Words, I believe the exact same week Brooke performed this year (and Blake was a runner up, not 5th place like Brooke). You're right a 2nd single does have an advantage over a 5th single, but I still don't think Cook is big enough yet, or CBTM is strong enough for him to hope for much more than top twenty on the Hot 100 from an Idol performance. Could be wrong though.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 15:28:42 GMT -5
Another big example of Idol failing to do anything for a past Idol's song is when Taylor He Who Must Not Be Named (an AI winner ) performed his second single on the finale (the most watched show of the season) and it failed to do anything for it. So again it goes both ways, and AI performance doesn't guarantee digital success, I think the people have to have a good response to the song first and foremost.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Mar 3, 2009 15:37:28 GMT -5
I think Blake and Taylor had the misfortune of performing when their albums were already considered dead and over. Public perception at that point was that they were flops. So I would expect Cook will be alright. The song isn't bad or anything. That said, there are no guarantees, so I don't know about it staying at #3 for a week.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Mar 3, 2009 15:38:50 GMT -5
I'm sure this will do fine in downloads....at least around the time of the AI performance...but this isn't going to do anything more than LO did on CHR. It's a pretty okay pop-rock song that will do well on HAC, but like it's been said, there's nothing that will make this stand out on CHR. It's even less catchy than LO and it doesn't have the whole "first single from an Idol winner" hype to back it up. I predict a #24-26 peak on CHR, top 10 on HAC and top 20 on the Hot 100 (Idol performance downloads).
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Bluemargay
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Post by Bluemargay on Mar 3, 2009 15:58:23 GMT -5
But Blake never stood a chance in the music industry. He was a better beat boxer than singer and no one cares if you can beatbox. Plus we know the effect performances can have on David's sales
SNL made Light On go top 30 and the idol promo made him go top 10. A performance on Idol could make this song a hit. Plus this could also be the send off song that they reveal next week. You can't guess a song's peak by how "Radio-friendly" it is. I'm Yours went #1 and Addicted went top 10 but the much more "radio friendly" 18 days is stalling in the top 40.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Mar 3, 2009 16:08:11 GMT -5
^LOL well clearly 18 Days is not more radio-friendly than either of those songs if it's stalling while the other two were hits....I wouldn't call it more radio-friendly than either of them anyway, especially not Addicted.
Idol performances don't make songs radio hits, sorry. They could get the digital sales to explode and then radio might follow, but it doesn't directly effect the song and I don't think an Idol performance is enough to push this song to the top 10 of CHR.
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Bluemargay
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Post by Bluemargay on Mar 3, 2009 16:30:27 GMT -5
Radio hits are less relevant than they used to be. Usually only Urban songs are only ones that reach their Hot 100 peak through radio. Downloads are what make songs hits. I'm Yours became a big radio hit because so many people were downloading it. Same goes with Gives You Hell. I know Brooke's song won't be played outside of Adult Contemporary if it at all but David Cook has done better on pop than expected. He even made a coronation song go top 30 on radio.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Mar 3, 2009 16:44:12 GMT -5
I totally agree that downloads are the #1 most important thing in the end but if your song is never heard or played it's not going to remembered as a hit. Radio's relevance may not be as much as it was in the late 90s/early 00s when physical singles were pretty much dead and digital singles hadn't caught on yet, but it's still very important and a large part of a song being a hit.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 16:58:20 GMT -5
I always have and still do think radio is much more important. Downloads only expose the song to an infinitely smaller audience than radio and only the people who want to be exposed to it, and if you download something, the person may listen to it once and never again. With a radio hit, people everywhere hear the song, even if it's not necessarily something they want to hear or would normally listen to, and a radio hit can have crazy longevity. Look at all the 90's hits that are still played to death on a lot of stations. Digital hits alone are just a flash in the pan that are forgotten within a year, but radio hits live on for decades.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Mar 3, 2009 16:59:33 GMT -5
Man, I can't wait until this thing gets some spins and we'll actually have something to talk about. This is already feeling like the Light On thread, and we don't even actually have numbers. LOL.
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Post by Baby In a New Dress on Mar 3, 2009 17:08:23 GMT -5
^ LO was a bigger hit than people give it credit for. :)
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Mar 3, 2009 17:11:39 GMT -5
^Yes it was.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Mar 3, 2009 17:13:47 GMT -5
^ LO was a bigger hit than people give it credit for. :) LOL. Don't say that out loud. We'll start another round of everybody's favorite game: "Endless Circular Discussions of David Cook's Impending Lameness - The You'll See This Time! Edition". Don't get upset people. I keed, I keed.
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Stephen
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Post by Stephen on Mar 3, 2009 17:24:58 GMT -5
Well from yesterday here's the update:
+1 Spin +1 Bullet +0.005 million AIs
It has officially received 1 spin on pop. I see this song BLOWING up on Pop. Not sure why, but I do.
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soundUPsceneDOWN
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Post by soundUPsceneDOWN on Mar 3, 2009 17:33:22 GMT -5
^^ Wonder which station? Maybe the KC one.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Mar 3, 2009 18:34:47 GMT -5
^^ Wonder which station? Maybe the KC one. It was in Michigan. A fan heard it.
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seattle_d
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Post by seattle_d on Mar 3, 2009 20:30:43 GMT -5
Get that 1 spin smash!
i keed, i keed. :)
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Post by FacetheFacts on Mar 3, 2009 20:45:36 GMT -5
:) It will smash!!!!
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