Verisimilitude
8x Platinum Member
'90s Zealot
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 8,959
|
Post by Verisimilitude on Nov 17, 2010 20:18:38 GMT -5
Billboard:
Chart Outlook: Susan Boyle’s ‘Gift’ Likely to Remain No. 1 Next Week November 17, 2010 - Retail
By Keith Caulfield
Though a hefty number of blockbuster new albums reached the marketplace on Nov. 16, none of them look like they'll topple Susan Boyle's "The Gift" from No. 1 on the Billboard 200 next week.
Industry prognosticators suggest that the Christmas-flavored "Gift" could sell upwards of 300,000 copies by week's end on Nov. 21. Considering it opened atop the list this week with 318,000, that would be a minuscule second-week decline. Normally, albums that post big opening weeks tend to drop significantly in week number two.
So what makes "The Gift" different? Well, its target demographic of older consumers tends not to focus on an album's street date and buy music at a more leisurely pace. There's probably a fair amount of people shopping at Target or Walmart this week who will pick up "The Gift" without realizing it dropped a week earlier.
Additionally, because it's a holiday-themed album, it benefits from shoppers in the hunt for tunes to play around the house as the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays approach.
Looking to come in at No. 2 is "America's Got Talent" runner-up Jackie Evancho with her debut EP "O Holy Night." The modestly priced four-track set might sell in the range of 250,000 to 280,000. Rihanna's fifth studio album, "Loud," is on track to give the diva her fifth top 10, as it's aiming for a start around 180,000 copies.
Rascal Flatts' "Nothing Like This" and Keith Urban's "Get Closer" might each sell about 160,000 to 170,000. Josh Groban's "Illuminations" could light up the list with 160,000 to 170,000 as well, while Kid Rock's new "Born Free" may do around 150,000 to 160,000.
On track for relatively soft start is this year's "American Idol" champ Lee DeWyze, as his "Live It Up" debut is estimated to sell in the neighborhood of 30,000 to 40,000. That would make it the lowest start for an "Idol" winner's first album.
|
|
fridayteenage
4x Platinum Member
Shake it Off
Joined: April 2008
Posts: 4,992
|
Post by fridayteenage on Nov 17, 2010 20:21:50 GMT -5
What a competitive week.
I don't think that Rihanna waiting more time to release her albums will make them seem any less like they come from a pop machine.
Ouch at Nelly/Norah.
|
|
leoapp
4x Platinum Member
Joined: March 2008
Posts: 4,986
|
Post by leoapp on Nov 17, 2010 20:43:53 GMT -5
Rihanna's prediction is still a disappointment. Not too far from fake article's prediction.
|
|
pokepikalem
New Member
Joined: December 2007
Posts: 352
|
Post by pokepikalem on Nov 17, 2010 20:43:54 GMT -5
The Glee entry, Christmas album is slated to sell between 150-160K
Wow, Glee is doing better than i expected.
|
|
Youknowit
Gold Member
Joined: February 2010
Posts: 873
|
Post by Youknowit on Nov 17, 2010 21:41:53 GMT -5
I think Rihanna could have sold at least 200K-she has two massive, monster hits, non-stop promo, and is coming off massive hits this year as well. It is also close to the holidays. It just seems weird to me that she cannot break 200K even with all the cards stacking up absolutely correctly. I thought we were supposed to be shocked and stunned with Lee's sales as well? Well, at least according to his fans. Close to the holidays? a week or two before Christmas is close to the holidays, not 5 1/2 weeks.
|
|
pnobelysk
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 10,120
|
Post by pnobelysk on Nov 17, 2010 22:00:45 GMT -5
I think Rihanna could have sold at least 200K-she has two massive, monster hits, non-stop promo, and is coming off massive hits this year as well. It is also close to the holidays. It just seems weird to me that she cannot break 200K even with all the cards stacking up absolutely correctly. I thought we were supposed to be shocked and stunned with Lee's sales as well? Well, at least according to his fans. people need to realize that rihanna can still make 200k first week, its not that far off from the prediction, weirder things have happened
|
|
pnobelysk
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 10,120
|
Post by pnobelysk on Nov 17, 2010 22:03:55 GMT -5
its amazing both susan and jackie are runner ups
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2010 22:17:04 GMT -5
its amazing both susan and jackie are runner ups Runner ups to who?
|
|
Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
Diamond Member
All Lives Can’t Matter Until Black Lives Matter
Joined: February 2008
Posts: 18,332
|
Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Nov 17, 2010 22:21:28 GMT -5
its amazing both susan and jackie are runner ups Runner ups to who? I think he means in their respective reality tv shows. ;)
|
|
Eloqueen™
Diamond Member
TSC: Certified Member
Joined: September 2007
Posts: 20,996
|
Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 17, 2010 22:25:19 GMT -5
Rihanna's prediction is still a disappointment. Not too far from fake article's prediction. Uh, well, the estimation in the "fake article" was pretty much in line with what everyone should have been expecting for Loud (I'm not even sure why the "jokster" thought the figure would be insulting in the first place). I think with this being her fifth album, we've all had plenty of time to come to the realization that she isn't going to be an artist who shifts any substantial number of units first week out. I think it's a tad ridiculous that people are still expecting more at this point in all honesty. It actually exceeded my expectation (170k).
|
|
|
Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 17, 2010 22:54:24 GMT -5
I think Rihanna could have sold at least 200K-she has two massive, monster hits, non-stop promo, and is coming off massive hits this year as well. It is also close to the holidays. It just seems weird to me that she cannot break 200K even with all the cards stacking up absolutely correctly. I thought we were supposed to be shocked and stunned with Lee's sales as well? Well, at least according to his fans. Close to the holidays? a week or two before Christmas is close to the holidays, not 5 1/2 weeks. Historically, this is about the time sales start to spike a little. Actually, releasing the week before Christmas can even hurt sales for a new release. That is why you see rushes of debuts, but not necessarily Christmas day, for example. I still say she could or should have done more even though I am sure her fans will shriek against that until they are blue in the face. I would say that for anyone who had the massive, unbelievable, overwhelming promo, support, non-stop presence, and non-stop monster hit after monster hit after monster hit like she has had. I thought Katy's were also a tad low. Not a flop by any means, but not OMGSHGDSH SMASH OMG HIT!!!!!!! either.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2010 22:55:36 GMT -5
I think Rihanna could have sold at least 200K-she has two massive, monster hits, non-stop promo, and is coming off massive hits this year as well. It is also close to the holidays. It just seems weird to me that she cannot break 200K even with all the cards stacking up absolutely correctly. I thought we were supposed to be shocked and stunned with Lee's sales as well? Well, at least according to his fans. The problem Rihanna runs into is that her all her eras almost collide into each other because they run from one to the next with hardly any break. "Umbrella" I believe dropped right on the heels of "Break It Off" and then now with this, the Rated R era was full swing just 6 months ago with "Rude Boy" and 3 months ago - "Rockstar". Then she was featured on LTWYL which kept her still visible. With such little time in between eras and the frequency of material from her being put that often, it doesn't allow public to be that anticipated for a new album to the point where she would get a significant first week debut. Hence why she always tends to debut modestly and eventually racks up the sales over time. Really, these sales aren't that surprising, it clearly is a pattern with the way she churns them out.
|
|
leoapp
4x Platinum Member
Joined: March 2008
Posts: 4,986
|
Post by leoapp on Nov 17, 2010 23:26:18 GMT -5
If she takes a break between each album, 2 years or more, maybe first week sales can be better.
|
|
Eloqueen™
Diamond Member
TSC: Certified Member
Joined: September 2007
Posts: 20,996
|
Post by Eloqueen™ on Nov 17, 2010 23:37:28 GMT -5
I would say that for anyone who had the massive, unbelievable, overwhelming promo lol. I sense just a bit of exaggeration here. She's made like four appearances in support of this release (Saturday Night Live, The Seven, Good Morning America, and David Letterman). While said promotion is good, I'd hardly say it's anywhere near approaching "massive", "ubelieveable", or "overwhelming". I'd also argue her having successive "monster" singles is a bit exaggerated as well. "Only Girl (In The World)", while a sizable hit, is no "monster" ("Poker Face", "California Girls", etc) and "What's My Name?" has just begun.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2010 23:41:51 GMT -5
I think he means in their respective reality tv shows. ;) OK thanks
|
|
Janhova's Witness
8x Platinum Member
Multi Pulse Award Winner
Joined: March 2009
Posts: 8,134
Pronouns: padam/padam
|
Post by Janhova's Witness on Nov 17, 2010 23:44:24 GMT -5
I would consider buying Jackie's alberm but that shit only has 4 songs on it. Bitch bye.
|
|
TGIF
Platinum Member
you gimme that hummingbird heartbeat!
Joined: October 2009
Posts: 1,003
|
Post by TGIF on Nov 17, 2010 23:45:16 GMT -5
and 3 of those appearances were within the last 2 days promo actually seemed very weak.
|
|
nighttime
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 2,471
|
Post by nighttime on Nov 17, 2010 23:49:40 GMT -5
Yea, her promotion in support of Loud in the US has been quite minimal, especially compared to her contemporaries. I fully expect them to pull out all the stops over the holiday season though.
|
|
desertfloods
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 2,431
|
Post by desertfloods on Nov 18, 2010 0:45:01 GMT -5
I don't care what Rihanna's album sells- just when she's going to give us a break from hearing her on the airwaves. Between her own albums and the featurings, the non-mega fans could be Rihanna-ed out.You nailed it. She'd have a huge (400k) opening if she didn't release something new all the time. People who don't follow charts and business don't know where one era ends and another begins. This is so true for me. I'm not a big fan of hers and I think if I don't come to Pulse, I won't even know which era the single is coming from.
|
|
|
Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 18, 2010 2:18:40 GMT -5
I would say that for anyone who had the massive, unbelievable, overwhelming promo lol. I sense just a bit of exaggeration here. She's made like four appearances in support of this release (Saturday Night Live, The Seven, Good Morning America, and David Letterman). While said promotion is good, I'd hardly say it's anywhere near approaching "massive", "ubelieveable", or "overwhelming". I'd also argue her having successive "monster" singles is a bit exaggerated as well. "Only Girl (In The World)", while a sizable hit, is no "monster" ("Poker Face", "California Girls", etc) and "What's My Name?" has just begun. What? Where do you live? I have been unable to escape Rihanna lately-I have seen promo EVERYWHERE-when I turn on the radio, when I turn on the TV, when I go to a store, when I go to campus, when I turn on my computer and open my homepage. I have seen 5 million performances of Only Girl circulating around the web. Both songs are getting massive airplay numbers and have hit top 5 on billboard (In fact, haven't they gone 1 and 2?) and have become multi-format smashes. Like, is it just where I live and in other parts of the country she isn't getting promo?!?!?!? Very strange! I really n eed to move then because seeing her everywhere all the time is starting to get to me even though I love her. I really cannot think of anyone who has comparable promo or presence lately except for Katy especially considering her just coming off of Rude Boy and Love The Way You Lie. Just checked-Name did hit #1 and OG #2 and both are still posting impressive numbers. I don't even get how they could promote her more to be honest lol. Except for Awards Shows, of course, but there really haven't been any around this time. Is she doing the AMAs? It is interesting that some people are bringing up that the constant promo/presence may actually be hurting her. Good point and I tend to agree. I feel like she is big enough now to take a short little break and not be forgotten.
|
|
|
Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Nov 18, 2010 2:26:01 GMT -5
lol. I sense just a bit of exaggeration here. She's made like four appearances in support of this release (Saturday Night Live, The Seven, Good Morning America, and David Letterman). While said promotion is good, I'd hardly say it's anywhere near approaching "massive", "ubelieveable", or "overwhelming". I'd also argue her having successive "monster" singles is a bit exaggerated as well. "Only Girl (In The World)", while a sizable hit, is no "monster" ("Poker Face", "California Girls", etc) and "What's My Name?" has just begun. What? Where do you live? I have been unable to escape Rihanna lately-I have seen promo EVERYWHERE-when I turn on the radio, when I turn on the TV, when I go to a store, when I go to campus, when I turn on my computer and open my homepage. I have seen 5 million performances of Only Girl circulating around the web. Both songs are getting massive airplay numbers and have hit top 5 on billboard (In fact, haven't they gone 1 and 2?) and have become multi-format smashes. Like, is it just where I live and in other parts of the country she isn't getting promo?!?!?!? Very strange! I really n eed to move then because seeing her everywhere all the time is starting to get to me even though I love her. I really cannot think of anyone who has comparable promo or presence lately except for Katy especially considering her just coming off of Rude Boy and Love The Way You Lie. Just checked-Name did hit #1 and OG #2 and both are still posting impressive numbers. I don't even get how they could promote her more to be honest lol. Except for Awards Shows, of course, but there really haven't been any around this time. Is she doing the AMAs? It is interesting that some people are bringing up that the constant promo/presence may actually be hurting her. Good point and I tend to agree. I feel like she is big enough now to take a short little break and not be forgotten. People just don't want to buy Rihanna albums. Or Rihanna is just not that popular and the singles sales are misleading. You'd think with a #1 and a #2 single and all that money and marketing muscle the record company has exerted with Rihanna that she'd be able to post something better-than Janet's Discipline numbers....especially with the added advantage of this being the time period when people buy most of their music. The sales definitely don't match the hype....payolla? Is the record company buying all the singles?
|
|
Eqbk
3x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 3,175
|
Post by Eqbk on Nov 18, 2010 2:40:56 GMT -5
I would consider buying Jackie's alberm but that s**t only has 4 songs on it. Bitch bye. It comes w/ more than 4 songs though. It's a CD/DVD package From Amazon: The DVD features Jackie’s performances from "America’s Got Talent" including the audition tape that landed Jackie her spot on AGT. It also includes an interview with Jackie filmed the week following the show’s finale. DVD Track Listing: 1. Panis Angelicus (Youtube Audition) 2. O Mio Babbino Caro 3. Time To Say Goodbye 4. Pie Jesu 5. Ave Maria 6. An Interview With Jackie
|
|
|
Post by neverduplicated on Nov 18, 2010 5:09:54 GMT -5
I don't think Rihanna would have bigger debuts if she took a long break from music. In fact, I think that could overall be a detriment to her. Rihanna is very popular - she's very pleasing, people don't really hate her, but I get the impression that not many people absolutely adore her as an artist. Her success has depended on being able to stay in people's minds constantly, being the voice of radio for the past 5 years. If she took a long break, it could actually backfire. Also, I don't believe people don't buy her albums because they're confused about when one era ends and one starts. That doesn't make sense. If you look at history, there's plenty of examples of artists releasing hit albums on the heels of their previous album.
|
|
grandelf
Gold Member
Joined: August 2010
Posts: 818
|
Post by grandelf on Nov 18, 2010 6:47:18 GMT -5
^Yep, it's obvious they have to strike the iron while it's hot. Had she waited another year, first week sales would have been lower than this.
I guess it's more about albums being practically dead and Susan, Eminem & Taylor simply being anomalies than the norm. It's just weird that while Rihanna is part of the biggest song of the year and a re-recording of the same song is on the album, she's still not established and her 'fanbase' is the same as it was 3 years ago.
And while fans can find comfort in Rihanna scoring #1 hits and selling millions of singles, the label is surely not pleased, since they have to realize a 'hit' album from a relatively new artist does the same numbers as a 'flop' or an 'unpromoted' album from an old artist (like Adonis said, Janet, or Barbra last year). I wonder if the label is actually losing money on the promo. Hence why I was saying it's better for a lot of acts to only release singles and EPs than wasting money on making a full album.
|
|
Nadia
Platinum Member
Born This Way
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 1,802
|
Post by Nadia on Nov 18, 2010 6:57:46 GMT -5
^Yep, it's obvious they have to strike the iron while it's hot. Had she waited another year, first week sales would have been lower than this. I guess it's more about albums being practically dead and Susan, Eminem & Taylor simply being anomalies than the norm. It's just weird that while Rihanna is part of the biggest song of the year and a re-recording of the same song is on the album, she's still not established and her 'fanbase' is the same as it was 3 years ago. And while fans can find comfort in Rihanna scoring #1 hits and selling millions of singles, the label is surely not pleased, since they have to realize a 'hit' album from a relatively new artist does the same numbers as a 'flop' or an 'unpromoted' album from an old artist (like Adonis said, Janet, or Barbra last year). I wonder if the label is actually losing money on the promo. Hence why I was saying it's better for a lot of acts to only release singles and EPs than wasting money on making a full album. you know US isn't the only country in the world? She is smashing WW and her US sales are fine. With sales at a all-time low, she's still selling the same. Her consistency is amazing.
|
|
grandelf
Gold Member
Joined: August 2010
Posts: 818
|
Post by grandelf on Nov 18, 2010 7:36:32 GMT -5
you know US isn't the only country in the world? She is smashing WW and her US sales are fine. With sales at a all-time low, she's still selling the same. Her consistency is amazing. WW sales are very low in general, plus outside the US and the UK there aren't even notable iTunes singles sales. She's smashing in terms of exposure and hype indeed but that doesn't pay the label's bills. Not sure if her consistency should be called 'amazing' when she does the same as last year, just that RR started with an underperforming first single while this one has two big hits already. Most of her fans expected it to crack 200k, this was her last chance to do that. But like I said, it's more about the general state of the industry than Rihanna herself, so I'm not calling her a flop or anything.
|
|
Nadia
Platinum Member
Born This Way
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 1,802
|
Post by Nadia on Nov 18, 2010 7:41:30 GMT -5
you know US isn't the only country in the world? She is smashing WW and her US sales are fine. With sales at a all-time low, she's still selling the same. Her consistency is amazing. WW sales are very low in general, plus outside the US and the UK there aren't even notable iTunes singles sales. She's smashing in terms of exposure and hype indeed but that doesn't pay the label's bills. Not sure if her consistency should be called 'amazing' when she does the same as last year, just that RR started with an underperforming first single while this one has two big hits already. Most of her fans expected it to crack 200k, this was her last chance to do that. But like I said, it's more about the general state of the industry than Rihanna herself, so I'm not calling her a flop or anything. Rated R was coming of GGGB and her hype was massive. Rated R did 160k, This will do 180-190k so it's more
|
|
|
Post by when the pawn... on Nov 18, 2010 8:01:33 GMT -5
Didn't Rated R do more than 160 opening week? I thought it was like 175-180.
Wow at Lee Dewyze, 30-40k. Not surprising considering he sucks and his single was DOA but wow at possible 30k opening for an Idol winner debut in mid-November.
|
|
|
Post by musicissalvation on Nov 18, 2010 8:07:24 GMT -5
Didn't Rated R do more than 160 opening week? I thought it was like 175-180. Wow at Lee Dewyze, 30-40k. Not surprising considering he sucks and his single was DOA but wow at possible 30k opening for an Idol winner debut in mid-November. yeah it got 180k
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2010 8:52:12 GMT -5
I don't think Rihanna would have bigger debuts if she took a long break from music. In fact, I think that could overall be a detriment to her. Rihanna is very popular - she's very pleasing, people don't really hate her, but I get the impression that not many people absolutely adore her as an artist. Her success has depended on being able to stay in people's minds constantly, being the voice of radio for the past 5 years. If she took a long break, it could actually backfire. Also, I don't believe people don't buy her albums because they're confused about when one era ends and one starts. That doesn't make sense. If you look at history, there's plenty of examples of artists releasing hit albums on the heels of their previous album. Artists have released hit albums on the heels of their previous but 5 albums in 5 years is a different story. Artists back in the day released about 3 in 3 years with big sales but especially in today's industry where sales have declined, putting out 5 albums that quickly doesn't leave people to anticipate her album to the point where has a significant first week. I agree with Love Plastic Love that Rihanna is definitely at a point where she could take a break because as long as she has a catchy song it will sell regardless. That has already been established.
|
|