Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 13:51:56 GMT -5
Trace Adkins, Mat Kearney, Victorious Cast Debut
August 3, 2011
Next week could make it an even dozen for Adele.
The XL/Columbia U.K. soul chanteuse is eyeing a 12th week at #1 for her Grammy front-running 21 album since its release back in February. The disc is already at 2.8 million in the U.S., with no end in sight.
Her only challenger is this week’s chart-topper, Capitol Nashville’s Eric Church, depending on how steep the drop is from his album Chief’s first-week total of 145k.
That’s based on one-day sales reports from those music retailers experiencing the true meaning of “dog days of summer.”
Among next week’s chart newcomers, look for the highest debut from Showdog Nashville veteran Trace Adkins’ Proud to be Here, which looks headed for sales between 40-45k.
Universal Republic singer/songwriter Mat Kearney, who has topped the iTunes sales charts the last few days with his latest, Young Love, has a projected total of 35-40k, the same as Nickelodeon/Columbia’s Victorious Cast album.
Veteran jam band O.A.R.’s Wind-up debut, King, is headed for a first-week total in the 25-30k range.
Geffen piano prodigy Greyson Chance, discovered by Ellen DeGeneres and co-managed by Guy Oseary and Troy Carter, is in line for a 15-20k debut for his label bow, Hold on ‘til the Night.
Album sales were up 3% vs. last week, up 11% vs. same week last year and now up a whopping 2% year to date.
And wait, there’s more. Track sales were down 3% vs. last week, up 13% vs. same week last year and up 11% year to date, while TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales
were up 1% vs. last week, up 11% vs. same week last year and up 4% year to date.
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Aug 3, 2011 14:00:16 GMT -5
Wow so Church may possibly only drop around 50% or less? A true country seller.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 14:12:30 GMT -5
I think Adele will end up snagging the top spot, it'll probably be around 70-80k I'm guessing? Either way, it would have to be a quite soft second week drop for Church to still be in contention for #1
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 3, 2011 15:26:53 GMT -5
A lackluster week...
Next week should have a BANG with Jay Z & Kanye being released...
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 15:31:18 GMT -5
^I believe the new NOW! compilation is out next week too. They won't be close sales-wise to Jay-Z/Kanye but they're usually good for six-figure debuts
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Aug 3, 2011 15:58:57 GMT -5
YAWN
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Aug 3, 2011 15:59:44 GMT -5
Can't wait for Adele's reign of terror to end. She's amazing, but GOD is this getting boring.
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killzone
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Post by killzone on Aug 3, 2011 16:12:47 GMT -5
Get that #1 Adele!!! .
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Post by when the pawn... on Aug 3, 2011 16:13:55 GMT -5
The Kanye/Jay-Z sales will be interesting. iTunes on Monday, Physical on Friday and then deluxe physical at Best Buy a week and a half later. Might be a weird sales trajectory.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 16:15:40 GMT -5
^And they're including an album download purchase with every concert ticket (which they go on sale the same day as the album), so that will boost sales a fair amount too
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Aug 3, 2011 16:22:48 GMT -5
The Kanye/Jay-Z sales will be interesting. iTunes on Monday, Physical on Friday and then deluxe physical at Best Buy a week and a half later. Might be a weird sales trajectory. You are wrong about the deluxe. It will be exclusive to Best Buy for 1.5 weeks, not available 1.5 weeks later. It will be on sale at Best Buy August 12th. August 8th: iTunes exclusive release August 12th: Retail release (standard only until August 23rd) August 12th-22nd: Best Buy deluxe edition exclusive period August 23rd: Regular/deluxe available at all outlets
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Aug 3, 2011 16:25:40 GMT -5
^And they're including an album download purchase with every concert ticket (which they go on sale the same day as the album), so that will boost sales a fair amount too I thought that was against the rules now after Prince used a similar loophole to boost sales during tour a few years back? Or as long as it's disclosed and people agree to it, it's okay?
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 16:34:44 GMT -5
^And they're including an album download purchase with every concert ticket (which they go on sale the same day as the album), so that will boost sales a fair amount too I thought that was against the rules now after Prince used a similar loophole to boost sales during tour a few years back? Or as long as it's disclosed and people agree to it, it's okay? My impression was that the price of the album was tacked onto the ticket price and therefore counts as a sale, but I'm not completely sure. Billboard should clear it up before too long
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 3, 2011 16:46:04 GMT -5
Will the Jay-Z/Kanye West album fare better than the Jay-Z/R. Kelly one? That album's performance was rather underwhelming.
Its release does look kinda odd- maybe it will sell enough digital copies to debut at No. 1?
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grouper6
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Post by grouper6 on Aug 3, 2011 17:00:26 GMT -5
Will the Jay-Z/Kanye West album fare better than the Jay-Z/R. Kelly one? That album's performance was rather underwhelming. Its release does look kinda odd- maybe it will sell enough digital copies to debut at No. 1? why wouldn't it debut at #!? what i'm i missing? digital on monday 8/8 and physical on friday 8/12 through sun which is 3 days enough for the rabid rap fans to cop it and make it #1. i'd say they could easily sell or come close to 100k digitally alone which should be enough for a #1
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2011 17:03:29 GMT -5
^And they're including an album download purchase with every concert ticket (which they go on sale the same day as the album), so that will boost sales a fair amount too I thought that was against the rules now after Prince used a similar loophole to boost sales during tour a few years back? Or as long as it's disclosed and people agree to it, it's okay? They're not giving a physical copy of the album away to everyone who purchases a ticket, which is what Prince did. They're giving them a voucher to download the album for free online. So it's not exactly the same thing. Singles bought using a voucher to buy a specific single are not counted toward the Hot 100 though, so I don't know why these albums would be counted toward the Billboard 200.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 3, 2011 17:23:04 GMT -5
My friend thinks Jay Z/Kanye is going to do 650k.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Aug 3, 2011 17:27:00 GMT -5
Billboard predicted somewhere in the 400k range for the first week.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 3, 2011 17:30:31 GMT -5
And Lil Wayne's label thinks he has a shot of 1 million in his first week..
We could have a big August.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 17:32:28 GMT -5
I can see it opening with 400k and then dropping to around 175k the following week. After that it will probably die down quite a bit without a promoted single or any real plans beyond the tour, will probably reach 1 million by year end
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Post by when the pawn... on Aug 3, 2011 17:32:44 GMT -5
I think closer to 300k and eventually go platinum. It's August, physical isn't in stores until Friday and they don't have a single. They also don't really overlap on fan bases. And while big music publications have done some speculating, they haven't been promoting much and I haven't heard of much coming up.
Kanye sold 500k on unbelievable reviews, Black Friday, lots of interviews/press and some well-hyped (though under-played) singles.
Jay-Z sold 450k (?) on D.O.A. and Run This Town, hype of ESOM/VMA performance and hype of it being a Blueprint album.
That being said, I'd love to see a single explode out of the gate and for this to be an A+ album that surprises us musically (and commercially).
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 17:34:59 GMT -5
And Lil Wayne's label thinks he has a shot of 1 million in his first week.. We could have a big August. Don't forget Red Hot Chili Peppers I can see Weezy doing 600-800k (wide range I know) And RHCP 350k
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Epic Fail
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Post by Epic Fail on Aug 3, 2011 17:51:44 GMT -5
^ they will not count. They will only be couned by the RIAA as in shipments.
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Aug 3, 2011 18:22:35 GMT -5
Wayne is not doing more than 600k at the very most.
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Oprah
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Post by Oprah on Aug 3, 2011 18:51:57 GMT -5
They also don't really overlap on fan bases. Isn't that a positive? Both of their fanbases will buy this so the less overlap the more people you have buying.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Aug 3, 2011 21:29:57 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2011 23:32:20 GMT -5
I'm thinkin' Adele will take the #1 next week, but kudos to Eric Church for selling so well!
To be honest, I never even knew he was big enough in the Country scene to have the ability [and fanbase] to score a #1 on the BB200. It's a nice [and refreshing] surprise to see such a true Country singer hit the top of a chart like this one.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 4, 2011 0:35:08 GMT -5
1+1 is not 2 here, I mean Jay-Z and Kanye might open huge separately but together it's a different story. Plus there's this pretty short-sighted strategy with the exclusives and all.
Although they have more fans in common than Jay-Z has with R. Kelly.
I'd say it'll open with 300-350k.
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 4, 2011 4:57:34 GMT -5
^And they're including an album download purchase with every concert ticket (which they go on sale the same day as the album), so that will boost sales a fair amount too I thought that was against the rules now after Prince used a similar loophole to boost sales during tour a few years back? Or as long as it's disclosed and people agree to it, it's okay? From my understanding, when you buy a ticket you'll get a voucher to download the album, therefore you have the conscious choice of whether to actually download it or not. On the contrary, if you went and bought a ticket in-store somehow and they shoved a free copy of the album through the register whether you liked it or not, then that would be different and those sales wouldn't count towards the chart. However, if you have the choice whether to buy it or not*, I think it should count. * If I remember correctly from 'Born This Way,' I think that this rule also states that if a particular product has two versions, one coming with a CD and one without or such, the one including the CD has to be reasonably more expensive, but I don't think that would apply here.
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CTE
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Post by CTE on Aug 4, 2011 5:10:35 GMT -5
Where is B?!
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