Adam (UTR)
3x Platinum Member
#1 on Adam's Top 40: "Break My Heart" by Dua Lipa
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 3,675
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Post by Adam (UTR) on Nov 22, 2011 15:05:38 GMT -5
Rock is back, at least for a week. Nickelback will be the top post-Black Friday debut from today and will battle Michael Buble for the #1 album next Tuesday. Drake, in his second week, could be a spoiler, but seems a long shot as of today. Here's a bigger than a breadbox look at this week's key new releases. I'll update with more fine-tuned projections tomorrow.
Nickelback (Roadrunner) 225-250k Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 180-200k Daughtry (19/RCA) 140-160k Mary J. Blige (Geffen) 120-140k Big Time Rush (Nickelodeon/Columbia) 90-110k Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 75-90k Michael Jackson (Epic) 50-60k Bob Seger, Ultimate Hits (Capitol) 50-55k Yelawolf (Ghet-O-Vision/Shady/Interscope) 40-50k (11/22p)
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moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2011 15:08:04 GMT -5
I don't understand why Rihanna can't sell albums!!
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Jay D83
4x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2006
Posts: 4,505
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Post by Jay D83 on Nov 22, 2011 15:14:31 GMT -5
I hope all of these albums trend up! Such a bleak BF week.
Rih should've released Christmas week.
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Nov 22, 2011 15:17:26 GMT -5
That's extremely low predictions for all of them!
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nighttime
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Joined: July 2009
Posts: 2,471
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Post by nighttime on Nov 22, 2011 15:17:32 GMT -5
I don't understand why Rihanna can't sell albums!! I don't understand why people still believe the only week her albums sell are their release week!!
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jdanton2
Diamond Member
Joined: October 2003
Posts: 11,610
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Post by jdanton2 on Nov 22, 2011 15:22:51 GMT -5
Nickleback.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:22:59 GMT -5
Rihanna would have a #1 album in just about any other week, it's just her last 3 have all been released in the most competitve week of the year.. From what I understand, this week is always hard to predict anyway as it's all about the Friday- Sunday sales. Also, only 250k for #1 has got to be the lowest I've seen for Thanksgiving week
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:28:39 GMT -5
Wow that's lower than I predicted for all of them. :o Is there a link for this btw?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:28:48 GMT -5
Market saturation. Eight major new releases. Nobody is going to buy all of them.
There are even some new releases not even listed here
This dilutes the numbers across the board for all
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Nov 22, 2011 15:30:10 GMT -5
Yes, Rihanna released her last 3 albums during the busiest time of the year, but who's fault is that? She's also pushed the majority of her units during that time. I honestly think her label does not care if she gets a #1 album, tbqh.
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Nov 22, 2011 15:31:05 GMT -5
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Wavey✨️
Moderator
Look...
Positive Vibes🙏🏾❤
Joined: August 2006
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Staff
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Nov 22, 2011 15:31:42 GMT -5
Hopefully this is updated, cause DAMN.
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moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2011 15:34:44 GMT -5
Rihanna would have a #1 album in just about any other week, it's just her last 3 have all been released in the most competitve week of the year.. From what I understand, this week is always hard to predict anyway as it's all about the Friday- Sunday sales. Also, only 250k for #1 has got to be the lowest I've seen for Thanksgiving week Regardless of if she hits #1 or not, 180-200k is SO low considering that 1. It's Black Friday week and 2. She has had a massive #1 hit for the last month.
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Post by California Cheers on Nov 22, 2011 15:37:55 GMT -5
they're probably gonna trend up on the weekend..its the same estimate loud got
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moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2011 15:38:07 GMT -5
I don't understand why Rihanna can't sell albums!! I don't understand why people still believe the only week her albums sell are their release week!! STILL...for an artist who has had a record amount of #1s her cumulative sales are very low.
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Post by California Cheers on Nov 22, 2011 15:38:40 GMT -5
Rihanna would have a #1 album in just about any other week, it's just her last 3 have all been released in the most competitve week of the year.. From what I understand, this week is always hard to predict anyway as it's all about the Friday- Sunday sales. Also, only 250k for #1 has got to be the lowest I've seen for Thanksgiving week Regardless of if she hits #1 or not, 180-200k is SO low considering that 1. It's Black Friday week and 2. She has had a massive #1 hit for the last month. loud got the same estimate..so what? it sold 207,000
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:38:55 GMT -5
Ty. My original prediction of Rihanna doing less than "Loud" because of weak promo/quick release is right on the money then. I'm still really surprised at how low the sales for everyone in general are though, Nickelback and Mary J Blige I expected much better from.
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musik...
New Member
"Brown eyes, tuxedo, fast cars A James Dean on the low, Dean on the low"
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 351
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Post by musik... on Nov 22, 2011 15:39:16 GMT -5
These all are extremely low. Even Drake doesn't appear to be getting the cushioned second week sales' drop that's expected with Thanksgiving week. When was the last Thanksgiving week where the top selling album didn't at least break 250k?
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moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2011 15:41:10 GMT -5
Regardless of if she hits #1 or not, 180-200k is SO low considering that 1. It's Black Friday week and 2. She has had a massive #1 hit for the last month. loud got the same estimate..so what? it sold 207,000 And I thought that was extremely low, too. I am in the Rihanna Navy, don't get me wrong, but I always hope her first week sales will match the success of her singles and I just get disappointed.
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moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2011 15:42:59 GMT -5
You gotta be disappointed with these Mary J. Blige estimates. All her other releases have made the #1 or #2 spots.
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Post by California Cheers on Nov 22, 2011 15:43:28 GMT -5
loud got the same estimate..so what? it sold 207,000 And I thought that was extremely low, too. I am in the Rihanna Navy, don't get me wrong, but I always hope her first week sales will match the success of her singles and I just get disappointed. i dont see why ppl get disappointed the majority of her albums have opened with 180k-200k and everytime predictions come out ppl are dumb-founded like its a big shock
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asg4
Platinum Member
Joined: October 2006
Posts: 1,102
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Post by asg4 on Nov 22, 2011 15:46:02 GMT -5
Yes, Rihanna released her last 3 albums during the busiest time of the year, but who's fault is that? She's also pushed the majority of her units during that time. I honestly think her label does not care if she gets a #1 album, tbqh. albums r released on black friday coz they would generally sell more then a traditional week and continue to sell thru the holiday season. if her label released earlier then her numbers would be even lower. her numbers r always low
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:46:02 GMT -5
You gotta be disappointed with these Mary J. Blige estimates. All her other releases have made the #1 or #2 spots. g0rl fuck a #1 or #2 spot, her last album opened with over 300k and she's barely pushing above 100k now. This is really weird.
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Post by California Cheers on Nov 22, 2011 15:46:28 GMT -5
You gotta be disappointed with these Mary J. Blige estimates. All her other releases have made the #1 or #2 spots. MJB doesnt really have much buzz or hit singles this time around
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Nov 22, 2011 15:48:15 GMT -5
#oop. Was trying to optimistic for Rih in thinking it was fake but... My original prediction of her doing less than "Loud" because of weak promo/quick release is right on the money then. I'm still really surprised at how low the sales for everyone in general are though, Nickelback and Mary J Blige I expected better from too. Someone mentioned oversaturation. W/all these major releases, it makes sense, but for someone w/hype & a #1 hit, these projections are awfully low, oversaturation or not. & you release during Black Friday week too?!?! CH...
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asg4
Platinum Member
Joined: October 2006
Posts: 1,102
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Post by asg4 on Nov 22, 2011 15:52:15 GMT -5
considering a big chunk of the music sold comes from holiday season the yr to yr sales might go down form +3% to below last yr sales
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Kishi KCM
Diamond Member
Work In Progress
Joined: March 2007
Posts: 11,324
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Post by Kishi KCM on Nov 22, 2011 15:52:54 GMT -5
I'm loving the opinions from all of you industry experts.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2011 15:57:53 GMT -5
Rihanna is a singles artist. The albums are clearly not the draw. It happens with some artists
Nickelback and Michael Buble on the other hand have different fortunes when it comes to selling their music
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#LisaRinna
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#LiteralLegender
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Post by #LisaRinna on Nov 22, 2011 15:58:00 GMT -5
I thought Mary would do at least 200k :-\
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Nov 22, 2011 15:58:51 GMT -5
I feel like below 200K would be disappointing for Rihanna, but maybe that is just because her fans have been a little excited imagining #1 albums, 300K+ weeks, massive numbers, etc. I do think that these estimates are probably early and a bit limited. Looks like Rihanna, Drake, Nickelback, and Buble will do 200-250K so overall that looks strong.
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