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Post by areyoureadytojump on May 3, 2012 11:41:15 GMT -5
Yes, that Nelly Furtado number is CRAZY.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on May 3, 2012 11:44:37 GMT -5
Yeah, Wayne was off by like 36,000 when TC4 came out.
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on May 3, 2012 11:52:43 GMT -5
Maroon 5 158k This seems too low. How much did Hands all over debut at? 142K. __________________________________________________________________________ Usher 275k Chris Brown 275k It would've been very interesting if they released the same week, but Chris pushed it back :'(
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divasummer
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Post by divasummer on May 3, 2012 11:56:53 GMT -5
I saw a 50 Cent prediction of 200+thousand. Is he even big anymore? I kind of felt like people think he's a liitle lame now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 12:02:46 GMT -5
Tha Carter IV came in at 964k IIRC. I remember being a little disappointed b/c Hits had him just making it over 1m. Incidentally, Tha Carter III did officially debut with barely over 1 million. Like, 5k over I think. at Bieber possibly doing close to 800k. We'll see. Hoping Usher can do 300k plus again, like last time. 90-100k seems about right for the Pied Piper, isn't that what his last album did? Nelly at close to 200k is only accurate if "Big Hoops" (or another song) becomes a hit, IMO. I was hoping Kris could do at least 50k-60k, but I have had a feeling that 40k is more reasonable to expect. 100k made sense for Adam a couple of months ago, but now that seems a tad optimistic. I wonder when that projection was made and if it's been adjusted to reflect the lack of a current hit. Keeping in mind though that 100k is almost 50% less than the 196k FYE debuted with, they may have done just that and are not expecting him to bleed that many fans. Speaking of overly optimistic though...Ashanti at 60k? That would be a pleasant surprise to me. She's got nothing going on in the way of visibility right now. Am I the only one thinking 228 for 50 is also a bit much to expect? (I see above that I am not.)
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on May 3, 2012 12:04:25 GMT -5
That Bieber number is huge. What have his other albums opened with? These are the same people that said Teenage Dream would open with 700k, so...
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AP
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Post by AP on May 3, 2012 12:08:16 GMT -5
That Bieber number is huge. What have his other albums opened with? These are the same people that said Teenage Dream would open with 700k, so... My World EP 137k My World 2.0 283k Under the Mistletoe 210k I'm thinking that 350-400k is a more realistic number.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on May 3, 2012 12:09:18 GMT -5
HITS had written that Bieber's album could do 300K-400K based on info thus far. But, almost 800K? We'll see.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 12:09:25 GMT -5
That Bieber number is huge. What have his other albums opened with? These are the same people that said Teenage Dream would open with 700k, so... My World EP 137k My World 2.0 283k Under the Mistletoe 210k I'm thinking that 350-400k is a more realistic number. But keep in mind he's never had anything close to as big as "Boyfriend". This is his first bonafide smash hit and his first regular studio album.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on May 3, 2012 12:10:57 GMT -5
R.Kelly opened up with 156k with Love Letter.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 12:11:46 GMT -5
R.Kelly opened up with 156k with Love Letter. ...and so far the lead single from his new album has peaked higher on the R&B chart than any of the singles from that album. Less than 100k seems low.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 3, 2012 12:12:49 GMT -5
Nelly at close to 200k is only accurate if "Big Hoops" (or another song) becomes a hit, IMO. BH will do quite well in Europe and things are looking promising in the UK but her chances of getting a big Hot 100 success are very very slim imo. Love Letter was a Q4 release so doubt he'll beat that but yea, like I posted earlier, over 100k should be doable.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on May 3, 2012 12:17:53 GMT -5
R.Kelly opened up with 156k with Love Letter. ...and so far the lead single from his new album has peaked higher on the R&B chart than any of the singles from that album. Less than 100k seems low. I agree, didn't "Untitled" open well too, and "Number One" with Keri Hilson didn't chart well?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 12:28:02 GMT -5
...and so far the lead single from his new album has peaked higher on the R&B chart than any of the singles from that album. Less than 100k seems low. I agree, didn't "Untitled" open well too, and "Number One" with Keri Hilson didn't chart well? It opened with 110k, and "Number One" peaked at #8 R&B.
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on May 3, 2012 13:28:31 GMT -5
oh Beiber..........
Adam 100k, way too high, I bet at 50k Kris 40k, hm, I think more like 25k
M5 should be much higher than their last album, I bet 200k+
John Mayer 250k, sounds right.
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on May 3, 2012 14:26:39 GMT -5
Nelly could do less than 50k, as much as it pains me to say. "Big Hoops" is flopping horribly, no one knows she's back. Unless the song catches on or they release something else soon and really turn up the promotion, this could be an epic flop for her. Which is tragic because this is her make-or-break album for the rest of her career.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 14:33:09 GMT -5
I always get confused about "Nelly" references. When somone says "Nelly" has a new song out, I think it is a rap record by a male rapper, not a female pop record - LOL
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on May 3, 2012 15:19:45 GMT -5
50 cent is too high.
Bieber is too high (600k max, I think).
Usher is too low (probably 315k).
R. Kelly is too low (definitely closer to 140k-150k).
Chris Brown is about right, although I can see him hitting something like 250k instead.
Slaughterhouse is too high (I'm thinking more like 70k).
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on May 3, 2012 15:25:57 GMT -5
Slaughterhouse seems right. They may have not had a mainstream single, but they have have some street hype.
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asg4
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Post by asg4 on May 3, 2012 15:34:38 GMT -5
Carrie's projected numbers are very solid considering Play On did 318k and it was released in November and I'd argue "Cowboy Casanova" was a bit of a bigger hit. Its second week drop should also be cushioned a little cause of Mother's Day Carrie could be #1 next week too but who know Adele could do well and reclaim #1 for possibly the last time. She appeals to the mothers
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 16:56:48 GMT -5
Carrie's upcoming weeks are actually stacked with more promo than her release week has been stacked with. She still has Ellen, Jimmy Kimmel, Dancing with the Stars, the Billboard Music Awards, and a few others all within the month of May. I wouldn't be surprised if her sales stabilize pretty respectably and she gets more than one week at #1.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on May 3, 2012 17:42:51 GMT -5
Great numbers for Carrie!
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on May 3, 2012 18:49:30 GMT -5
Those numbers are all pretty reasonable. You guys are looking way too into it.
Bieber is going to be HUGE.
Nelly furtado can easily do that. She has a huge fan base as well.
I'd say the numbers are 85-90% in line with being correct with a 10-15% margin of error. Those sales are as of TODAY with labels and everyone putting in educated guesses.
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vsw
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Post by vsw on May 3, 2012 18:49:53 GMT -5
So the Smash Soundtrack didn't sell a copy at all? lol
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KMJ1
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Post by KMJ1 on May 3, 2012 18:51:57 GMT -5
100k for Adam LOL. Based on 'what'?
Not even in the ballpark. I say maybe 60k (very high max).
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AP
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Post by AP on May 3, 2012 18:58:38 GMT -5
So the Smash Soundtrack didn't sell a copy at all? lol I'm surprised to not see it on the list of predictions from HITS. It's #5 on iTunes. It should def sell 10k or more.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on May 3, 2012 19:59:30 GMT -5
after the AI performance tomorrow, 300k is a no brainer.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on May 3, 2012 20:02:58 GMT -5
Carrie Underwood will debut at #1 as Sony Music is set to occupy one half of next week's Top 10, while nearly half of the Top 15 will be debuts. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 270-295k *Norah Jones (Blue Note/EMI) 95-105k *Now 42 (Capitol/EMI) 95-105k Adele (XL/Columbia) 75-80k *B.o.B (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 70-75k Lionel Richie (Mercury Nashville) 70-75k Jack White (Third Man/Columbia) 55-60k One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 40-45k *The Music of Smash (Columbia) 40-45k *Marilyn Manson (Downtown) 35-40k Lee Brice (Curb) 30-35k Gotye (Fairfax/Universal Republic) 27-30k *Avengers Assemble (Marvel Music/Hollywood) 25-28k Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 24-27k Kip Moore (MCA Nashville) 21-24k Jason Mraz (Atlantic) 21-24k
*Debuts (5/3p)
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Post by josh on May 3, 2012 20:12:30 GMT -5
But what if Bieber has a 25 cent deal or something? Would make things fun
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2012 20:14:52 GMT -5
They wouldn't count if they were 25 cents
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