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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 15:03:12 GMT -5
TWO DIVAS: ONE THRONE Looks Like It Could Be Carrie vs. Adele for #1 on Post-Mother’s Day Chart
May 9, 2012
Mother’s Day is turning out to be a mother of a battle between a pair of pop divas.
It may be a little too early to say, but it’s sure looking like a tussle for #1 next week between 19/Arista Nashville country star Carrie Underwood’s Blown Away, this week’s chart-topper, and XL/Columbia perennial Adele, set to go over 9 million sold in the U.S. for her Grammy-sweeping 21.
As always, we’ll have a clearer picture tomorrow, but none of this week’s debuts will have a shot t the to spot.
Dangerbird L.A. Silver Lake indie rockers Silversun Pickups’ third studio album, Neck of the Woods, will be the top newcomer, with an estimated total of 35-40k, which would compare favorably to the 43k they scored in April, ’09 with Swoon, which went on to sell a robust 318k. The band performed on the Jimmy Kimmel Live outdoor stage last night. The band received a Grammy nomination for Best New Artist in 2009.
Grammy-nominated Atlantic R&B singer-songwriter Tank’s This Is How I Feel, featuring collaborations with T.I., Chris Brown and Busta Rhymes, is on target for a 25-30k first week. The album, his fifth, is the follow-up to his 2010 label debut, Now or Never, which debuted with 44k in Dec. 2010. Tank’s collaboration on Chris Brown’s “Take My Time” earned him a nomination at last year’s Grammys in the “Best R&B Performance by a Duo or Group with Vocals” category, which joined his eight career nominations to date. In addition to his own music, Tank has contributed vocals and helped pen hit records for the likes of Jamie Foxx, Keri Hilson and Chris Brown.
Veteran Interscope U.K. popmeisters Keane’s fourth studio album, Strangeland, their first since 2008’s Perfect Symmetry, looks to be in the 17-20k range, about half the total of the previous album’s 43.5k.
Epic viral sensations and SNL hip-pop duo Karmin’s debut, Hello, is also looking at 17-20k in first-week sales on the heels of the Top 5 dance hit, “Brokenhearted.”
Columbia gospel duo Mary Mary’s seventh album, Go Get It, looks to be in the 12-15k range, off from last year’s Something Big, which debuted with 42k in sales. The two introduced the title track on the final episode of their new reality TV series.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 9, 2012 15:09:21 GMT -5
I'll die if Adele beats Carrie.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on May 9, 2012 15:14:31 GMT -5
C'mon Carrie!
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 9, 2012 15:25:19 GMT -5
I wonder what their numbers are projected to be.
-60% for Carrie would bring her to 106,000. Assuming Mother's Day lightens the fall, I assume both albums will do between 100-125,000?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 15:39:02 GMT -5
I'll die if Adele beats Carrie. If not this week, going to happen eventually Adele will see much smaller week over week drops than the Carrie album
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Post by Love Plastic Love on May 9, 2012 15:47:23 GMT -5
I wish we knew the numbers. I am assuming around 100-125K is reasonable.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on May 9, 2012 17:35:38 GMT -5
Sad for Karmin.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on May 9, 2012 17:36:14 GMT -5
Adele's '21' May Return to No. 1, Just in Time for Mother's Day
May 09, 2012 | By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles
Adele's 21 album has never left the Billboard 200 chart's top 10 in its entire 63-week run. And now it's looking like it has the chance to return to No. 1 for a 24th week.
The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, May 16.
With a lack of big-name new releases out yesterday (May 8), Adele's 21 is going up against the current leader, Carrie Underwood's Blown Away, for the top slot next week.
With the Mother's Day holiday falling at the end of the tracking week (Sunday, May 13), a good many shoppers may find that Blown Away or 21 are the perfect gift for the mom in their lives. (Yes, despite how 21 is closing in on 9 million U.S. sales according to Nielsen SoundScan, there are still many that don't own the album yet.)
While Adele and Underwood seem likely to place in the Nos. 1 and 2 slots next week, the highest debut will come from Silversun Pickups' new Neck of the Woods. The set may start with around 40,000 -- so say industry sources -- and land in the top 10.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 17:39:28 GMT -5
Columbia gospel duo Mary Mary’s seventh album, Go Get It, looks to be in the 12-15k range, off from last year’s Something Big, which debuted with 42k in sales. The two introduced the title track on the final episode of their new reality TV series. It's a compilation album of their past hits, so obviously it's not going to debut with the same numbers as their last studio album...... AND YES ADELE!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 18:06:55 GMT -5
I'm expecting to see Carrie take a second week at the top. She's got Ellen, Jimmy Kimmel, and Dancing with the Stars for promo this upcoming week, so her second week drop should be solid enough to give her the edge, along with the Mother's Day effect.
But, then again, you can never underestimate Adele.
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manchs
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Post by manchs on May 9, 2012 18:17:49 GMT -5
^ DWTS is next week.
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matelot
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Post by matelot on May 9, 2012 18:25:39 GMT -5
Lionel Ritchies Tuskegee could be a good present for mothers day too maybe he'll sell over 100K too
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Post by Push The Button on May 9, 2012 18:28:07 GMT -5
They'll probably all come in at 90k or so.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 9, 2012 18:49:07 GMT -5
They'll probably all come in at 90k or so. I'm thinking a little more. If they expect Adele to match or overtake Carrie, I assume she'll have to pass Carrie's -60% figure which is about 110,000. I do think they'll both sell past 100,000, though.
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microcuts
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Post by microcuts on May 9, 2012 19:05:04 GMT -5
Somewhat disappointing for SSPU.. I figured more of the 300K or so that bought Swoon would have an interest in this, but apparently not yet.
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ZAYN
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Post by ZAYN on May 9, 2012 21:57:29 GMT -5
Dang Karmin :(
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 10, 2012 1:36:04 GMT -5
Somewhat disappointing for SSPU.. I figured more of the 300K or so that bought Swoon would have an interest in this, but apparently not yet. Me too. Swoon is excellent, yet to hear the new one.
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ZAYN
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Post by ZAYN on May 10, 2012 1:47:32 GMT -5
Do they have a way to include predicting iTunes sales as well? Because I think the larger chunk of Karmin's sales will be digital.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on May 10, 2012 9:29:58 GMT -5
Go Adele! I'd like her to end up with at least 25 weeks at #1 -- if I recall there was a gap between 24 weeks and 31 weeks for some of the longest-running #1s, and several were tied at 24.
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freeman
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Post by freeman on May 10, 2012 10:03:59 GMT -5
Ugh. Adele better not win.... She's had her time at number one. And I can't see how it can increase enough to get to Carrie's numbers. Does mother's day normally have that much of an impact? Go Carrie! I'd love to see a second week at number one for her. Something neither of the other albums did in her career.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on May 10, 2012 10:38:30 GMT -5
Ugh. Adele better not win.... She's had her time at number one. And I can't see how it can increase enough to get to Carrie's numbers. Does mother's day normally have that much of an impact? Go Carrie! I'd love to see a second week at number one for her. Something neither of the other albums did in her career. Adele's sales increased by 25% the week of Mother's day last year. So if she were to do the same this year, then she'll be looking at ~96k. Carrie's drop may be bigger than what some of you think, so may end up on ~95k (a 66% drop). But Adele's increase may be larger than what she had last year.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2012 10:42:08 GMT -5
Go Adele! I'd like her to end up with at least 25 weeks at #1 -- if I recall there was a gap between 24 weeks and 31 weeks for some of the longest-running #1s, and several were tied at 24. 2 tied at 24 (Saturday Night Fever and Purple Rain) after that is 31 weeks
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on May 10, 2012 11:20:11 GMT -5
They'll probably all come in at 90k or so. I'm thinking a little more. If they expect Adele to match or overtake Carrie, I assume she'll have to pass Carrie's -60% figure which is about 110,000. I do think they'll both sell past 100,000, though. That's a pretty small drop to assume for Carrie, though, but I guess it's possible with all her promo this week and Mother's Day. Still, I anticipate both albums selling about 90-100k. They may be playing up how close Adele is just to entice readers, though, and Carrie could still win by a solid 20k and it wouldn't shock me. I want Adele to get one last week at #1. I wanted 25 weeks for her, but it looks like it will be tough to even get one more.
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matelot
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Post by matelot on May 10, 2012 14:52:24 GMT -5
I want Adele to get one last week at #1. I wanted 25 weeks for her, but it looks like it will be tough to even get one more. the week she lost to springsteen was her last shot i guess she won't have any boost anymore (or maybe after the Olympics ?) but I know its not smart to predict something about adele ^^
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on May 10, 2012 15:43:23 GMT -5
Carrie FTW!
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on May 10, 2012 17:49:40 GMT -5
Headed into the Mother's Day weekend, it now looks as if Carrie Underwood will score her first-ever second week at #1. Shockingly, no album by Underwood has ever spent more than one week at the top. Adele, who earlier in the week appeared as a likely challenger, may now have to settle for #2. Past history, however, suggests she can never be counted out, especially with Mother's Day this Sunday. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 105-115k Adele (XL/Columbia) 90-95k Now 42 (Capitol/EMI) 70-75k Lionel Richie (Mercury Nashville) 60-65k Norah Jones (Blue Note/EMI) 60-65k *Silversun Pickups (Dangerbird) 35-40k One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 35-40k Jack White (Third Man/Columbia) 30-35k *Tank (Atlantic) 27-30k B.o.B. (Atlantic) 24-27k Gotye (Fairfax/Universal Republic) 24-27k Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 24-27k *Keane (Interscope) 18-21k Smash (Columbia) 18-21k Nicki Minaj (Young Money/Cash Money/Universal Republic) 18-21k *Karmin (Epic) 18-21k
*Debuts (5/10p)
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on May 10, 2012 18:05:02 GMT -5
Next week might be again Carrie vs. Adele. LOL
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2012 18:08:22 GMT -5
Looking at next weeks releases, I wouldn't be surprised to see Godsmack get yet another #1 album next week. Nevermind, it's a live album, not a studio album.
Glee won't do anything, and who knows about Adam Lambert.
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Post by josh on May 10, 2012 18:38:47 GMT -5
Adele has an NBC special on June 5, with interviews and performances from her DVD being aired. Should boost her single and album sales. Another week at #1 then? What's being released then?
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Post by Living Legend on May 10, 2012 19:02:01 GMT -5
I knew Carrie could do it!! She's still #2 on iTunes with Adele at #4. Wow at Lionel Richie. He's looking to be the first 2012 release to cross the 1 million mark in sales.
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