Billboard Hot 100: 11/10/12

[Deleted]

Oct 24, 2012 13:57:01 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Oct 24, 2012 13:17:04 GMT -5 Codex said:

You have to multiply mediabase by around 0.75 to get BDS airplay numbers.

Thanks for the information. :)
I'II use it for my next (old formula) chart.

You're welcome, but they apparently changed it again, so I'm guessing it's more like 0.7 now.

[HolidayGuy]

Yes- I checked the top40 chart and some tracks experience sizable updates. Of course, this means even more of a discrepancy between BDS and Mediabase.

[chartfreak]

Someone at UKmix said that Taylor will chart with these songs. I didn't think airplay and sales for some would be enough to chart?

The following will chart on the Hot 100 next week >>> 1 * I Knew You Were Trouble 2 * 22 3 * Everything Has Changed 4 * We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 5 * I Almost Do 6 * RED 7 * All Too Well 8 * Stay Stay Stay 9 * Begin Again 10 * State of Grace 

[josh]

These are definites:
WANEGBT
IKYWT.
Red (#10 iTunes still)
22 is most likely (17 iTunes)
Then Begin Again is most likely as well (31 iTunes but top 20 Country)

other than that I don't think the others will chart, but you never know

[jenglisbe]

I was thinking today about how some acts you might have thought would be one-hit wonders - like fun. and Neon Trees - are currently enjoying second hits. And then I thought Ne-Yo was washed up, and here he is with another hit. So, good for all of them.

And while Maroon 5 was never irrelevant, it's interesting they are having their biggest singles ever a few albums into their career. And how interesting is it that Train is having hits despite being in their 40s (?)?

I'm loving that an act like The Lumineers is having a big hit, and Phillip Phillips' "Home" has finally caught on at radio.

And then you have really cool urban music being released by Miguel, Elle Varner, Frank Ocean, Kedrick Lamar, Brandy, etc.

It's a very interesting time in music, no?

[leeoh505]

:'( I'm so happy for Ne-Yo slayyyyyying like this ! Get that smash my king!!

[leeoh505]

Oct 27, 2012 9:58:03 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

And then I thought Ne-Yo was washed up, and here he is with another hit. So, good for all of them.

2008 all over again, I'm so R.E.D.D.Y for R.E.D , he will own this era! :)

[Get Your Life.]

Well with that kind of AI increase, OMN will never die... 10 week number 1?

[Deleted]

Billboard doesn't used Mediabase, so no. Unless you mean 10 weeks at #1 on the airplay chart.

[leeoh505]

I think even with Nielsen BDS, OMN might just spend 10 weeks at #1 on BB100, cos Billboard hits are fueled by airplay and they're taking off on radio. PSY is currently in the Xenophobic zone where U.S radio refuses to play GS so I doubt it will reach #1, it's up to Ke$ha or Queen Rih to remove Maroon 5 off #1 tbh :|

[Enigma.]

Oct 27, 2012 9:58:03 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I was thinking today about how some acts you might have thought would be one-hit wonders - like fun. and Neon Trees - are currently enjoying second hits. And then I thought Ne-Yo was washed up, and here he is with another hit. So, good for all of them.

And while Maroon 5 was never irrelevant, it's interesting they are having their biggest singles ever a few albums into their career. And how interesting is it that Train is having hits despite being in their 40s (?)?

I'm loving that an act like The Lumineers is having a big hit, and Phillip Phillips' "Home" has finally caught on at radio.

And then you have really cool urban music being released by Miguel, Elle Varner, Frank Ocean, Kedrick Lamar, Brandy, etc.

It's a very interesting time in music, no?

Yes, agree totally! Of the acts getting second hits, Neon Trees are definitely the most surprising - I always knew that with Nate Ruess' talent and Fueled by Ramen's support fun. would have a decent success beyond WAY.

[NeRD]

1. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 185.508 (+ 14.496)

I can't...

There is like nothing anywhere near passing this. Coming for Iris' record.

[leeoh505]

At the rate this is going Maroon 5 might reach 200.000+ next week... I can't :O.. It's such a basic song though. Payphone is 100x better tbh

[fire]

^payphone is the definition auf generic though

[KeepDeanWeird]

Oct 27, 2012 12:13:58 GMT -5 leeoh505 said:

I think even with Nielsen BDS, OMN might just spend 10 weeks at #1 on BB100, cos Billboard hits are fueled by airplay and they're taking off on radio. PSY is currently in the Xenophobic zone where U.S radio refuses to play GS so I doubt it will reach #1, it's up to Ke$ha or Queen Rih to remove Maroon 5 off #1 to be honest :|

PSY is getting plenty of airplay at Pop - it's Top 10. The song doesn't really fit other formats. for a novelty record, it has done quite well at radio. It has nothing to do with xenophobia. There are hundreds of foreign acts that have had big international hits that didn't break in US. Just like there have been huge US hit, that don't break internationally. Also, as noted by Billboard, the ratio of people buying GS compared to watching the video is incredibly small. #2 has been an incredible achievement.

[josh]

Oct 27, 2012 15:40:48 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Also, as noted by Billboard, the ratio of people buying GS compared to watching the video is incredibly small. #2 has been an incredible achievement.

(Directed towards Billboard, not you)

That's a stupid remark. One More Night is selling MUCH worse when you compare it to its radio impressions. And since Youtube views don't count towards the Hot 100 (it's been debated that they do, but if so it's only like 0.1% of the total score) but radio is the "single most important" factor for the Hot 100, then Maroon 5 is doing MUCH worse.

That's some faulty logic, there, Billboard. Then again, I wouldn't expect anything less.

[Rodze]

Top 10 with less audience that no. 11.

Plenty of airplay indeed.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Radio now decides who hits number one on the HOT 100 when it should be consumers who have the most say in who hits #1 on the HOT 100. Even with on-demand GS has been more popular than OMN. That means consumers left to their own devices choose to buy GS over OMN 2-1 in addition to actually listening to the record more than OMN on their own. Radio is the only one who is not listening to the will of the consumer. Billboard needs to phase it out as a measure of popularity. It's clear programmers are choosing what should be #1.

[HolidayGuy]

But, radio- supposedly- conducts research with its audience to see what it likes, and "One More Night" must be testing well to some degree. Sometimes, tracks test real well with the listening audience, but don't necessarily fare equally as well in sales.

[fridayteenage]

Part of Me is a way weaker #1 than One More Night (ignoring the # of weeks on top). One More Night’s spent 9 or 10 weeks in the T5 digitally; Part of Me spent one week in the T3 and a total of two in the T5. The last #1 song that was so weak digitally was in early 2008 – Touch My Body; Mariah hasn’t returned to the digital T5 since then.

And Part of Me only had a 12% lead over the digital runner-up; from 2006, of the other Hot 100/digital #1s that spent fewer than 5 weeks in the T5 digitally, the 2nd smallest lead was What Goes Around – 23%.

Of course, if the rule hadn’t changed, One Direction would likely have usurped Katy’s title of weakest #1, given that it went 1-11, AND led the #2 digital seller by just 9%. I approve of the rule change, generally.

[nivekwriter1]

BC Mediabase airplay update (10/28/2012)

TOP 10

1. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 187.937 (+ 1.957)
2. JUSTIN BIEBER – As Long As You Love Me: 150.340 (+ 0.315)
3. FUN. – Some Nights: 145.963 (- 0.384)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – We Are Never Ever Getting…: 143.434 (- 0.431)
5. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 132.289 (- 0.768)
6. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 125.371 (+ 0.014)
7. NE-YO - Let Me Love You: 121.175 (+ 1.700)
8. CHRIS BROWN – Don’t Wake Me Up: 119.705 (+ 0.630)
9. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Good Time: 100.230 (- 1.026)
10. RIHANNA - Diamonds: 97.683 (+ 2.671)
11. KE$HA - Die Young: 87.186 (+ 1.685)[/b]
12. ELLIE GOULDING – Lights: 87.157 (- 0.735)
13. MIGUEL - Adorn: 87.132 (+ 0.722)
14. NEON TREES – Everybody Talks: 80.821 (- 2.049)
15. KATY PERRY – Wide Awake: 77.201 (- 0.354)
17. PSY - Gangnam Style: 73.283 (+ 0.092)
16. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 72.810 (- 0.595)
18. BRUNO MARS - Locked Out Of Heaven: 71.556 (+ 1.368)
19. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 69.259 (+ 1.342)
20. CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Blown Away: 65.176 (- 0.357)

OTHERS

LEE BRICE - Hard To Love: 64.576 (+ 1.198)
TRAIN – 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 64.060 (- 0.201)
FRENCH MONTANA - Pop That f/Rick Ross: 58.615 (- 0.192)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 58.106 (+ 0.599)
TREY SONGZ - 2 Reasons f/T.I.: 55.048 (+ 0.041)
KANYE WEST - Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 51.813 (+ 1.132)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 44.668 (- 1.229)
ONEREPUBLIC – Feel Again: 36.147 (+ 0.413)
ONE DIRECTION - Live While We're Young: 33.817 (- 0.183)
ALICIA KEYS - Girl On Fire: 33.163 (+ 0.023)
USHER - Numb: 32.947 (+ 0.402)
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 31.669 (+ 0.078)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Your Body: 28.887 (- 0.572)
ADELE - Skyfall: 26.202 (+ 0.531)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Begin Again: 25.165 (+ 0.978)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 23.603 (+ 0.302)
THE SCRIPT - Hall Of Fame f/Will.i.am.: 18.138 (+ 0.455)
MUSE – Madness: 17.156 (+ 0.407)
P!NK - Try: 9.099
KELLY CLARKSON - Catch My Breath: 9.207 (+ 1.307)
CHER LLOYD - Oath f/Becky G: 8.735
KILLERS - Miss Atomic Bomb: 0.916

Other updates (from Kworb):

FLO RIDA - I Cry: 51.890 (+ 2.143)
ED SHEERAN - The A Team: 44.846 (+ 1.201)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Cruise: 42.663 (+ 1.425)
LUMINEERS - Ho Hey: 36.382 (+ 1.112)
NICKI MINAJ - Va Va Voom: 17.883 (+ 2.788)[/b][/color]
ROLLING STONES - Doom And Gloom: 2.961 (+ 0.776)

[Verisimilitude]

Oct 27, 2012 22:02:10 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

But, radio- supposedly- conducts research with its audience to see what it likes, and "One More Night" must be testing well to some degree. Sometimes, tracks test real well with the listening audience, but don't necessarily fare equally as well in sales.

"One More Night" feels like the biggest non-multi week #1 of all time. In that it's spending so many weeks at #1, but it feels like a top 10 song that won't be remembered in a year.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Oct 27, 2012 16:13:42 GMT -5 josh said:

Oct 27, 2012 15:40:48 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Also, as noted by Billboard, the ratio of people buying GS compared to watching the video is incredibly small. #2 has been an incredible achievement.

(Directed towards Billboard, not you)

That's a stupid remark. One More Night is selling MUCH worse when you compare it to its radio impressions. And since Youtube views don't count towards the Hot 100 (it's been debated that they do, but if so it's only like 0.1% of the total score) but radio is the "single most important" factor for the Hot 100, then Maroon 5 is doing MUCH worse.

That's some faulty logic, there, Billboard. Then again, I wouldn't expect anything less.

One other factor not covered- album sales. M5 has sold a lot. So some consumers have chosen to buy the whole album v. single. For PSY, he only has single sales. Based on M5's rebounding album sales since ONM release, it's clear that has been a driving factor.

[nivekwriter1]

After a while I have made a updated list from
all songs with 150M airplay or more.
It are 43 songs so far.
Here's the top 20.

1. Mariah Carey - We Belong Together: 256M
2. Beyoncé - Irreplaceble: 230M
3. Mariah Carey - Shake It Off: 218M
4. Mario - Let Me Love You: 214M
5. Usher ft. Lil John & Ludacris - Yeah: 207M
6. Beyoncé ft. Slim Tug - Check On It: 202M
7. Mariah Carey - Be Without You: 201M
8. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 199M
9. Beyoncé ft. Sean Paul - Baby Boy: 196M
Mariah Carey - Don't Forget About Us: 196M
11. Alicia Keys - No One: 193M
12. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 192M
13. Beyoncé ft. Jay-Z - Crazy In Love: 191M
14. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 187M (so far)
15. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young: 185M
16. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 184M
17. Ciara ft. Missy Elliott - 1, 2 Step: 183M
18. Snoop Dogg ft. Pharrell - Drop It Like It's Hot: 182M
19. Adele - Set Fire To The Rain: 179M
20. Ciara ft. Pety deleted - Goodies: 177M

Does anyone know any other songs that should have been in
this top 20? ???

[Lozzy]

"Be Without You" and "Don't Forget About Us"? I also thought "Shake It Off" made it higher than that.

[nivekwriter1]

Oct 28, 2012 8:15:00 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

"Be Without You" and "Don't Forget About Us"? I also thought "Shake It Off" made it higher than that.

Be Without You: 171.4M

I don't know the airplay peak from 'Don't Forget About Us'.
If anybody knows it, please tell it. :)

I also think 'Shake It Off made it higher but I have no excact number, so if anybody knows it, please tell it. :)
I'II now just post + 200M

[josh]

Oct 28, 2012 7:45:43 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Oct 27, 2012 16:13:42 GMT -5 josh said:

(Directed towards Billboard, not you)

That's a stupid remark. One More Night is selling MUCH worse when you compare it to its radio impressions. And since Youtube views don't count towards the Hot 100 (it's been debated that they do, but if so it's only like 0.1% of the total score) but radio is the "single most important" factor for the Hot 100, then Maroon 5 is doing MUCH worse.

That's some faulty logic, there, Billboard. Then again, I wouldn't expect anything less.

One other factor not covered- album sales. M5 has sold a lot. So some consumers have chosen to buy the whole album v. single. For PSY, he only has single sales. Based on M5's rebounding album sales since ONM release, it's clear that has been a driving factor.

That's a very good point. I still think Psy is doing better, relatively speaking, but that brings M5 up much closer.

[Lozzy]

Oct 28, 2012 8:47:40 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Oct 28, 2012 8:15:00 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

"Be Without You" and "Don't Forget About Us"? I also thought "Shake It Off" made it higher than that.

Be Without You: 171.4M

I don't know the airplay peak from 'Don't Forget About Us'.
If anybody knows it, please tell it. :)

I also think 'Shake It Off made it higher but I have no excact number, so if anybody knows it, please tell it. :)
I'II now just post + 200M

"Don't Forget About Us": 196 million
"Shake It Off": 218 million
"Be Without You": 201 million

That's from the audience peaks thread on orkut. I think you're mixing up Mediabase with BDS, which is where "Be Without You" made it to 171.4 million.

[nivekwriter1]

Oct 28, 2012 9:07:25 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Oct 28, 2012 8:47:40 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Be Without You: 171.4M

I don't know the airplay peak from 'Don't Forget About Us'.
If anybody knows it, please tell it. :)

I also think 'Shake It Off made it higher but I have no excact number, so if anybody knows it, please tell it. :)
I'II now just post + 200M

"Don't Forget About Us": 196 million
"Shake It Off": 218 million
"Be Without You": 201 million

That's from the audience peaks thread on orkut. I think you're mixing up Mediabase with BDS, which is where "Be Without You" made it to 171.4 million.

Thanks for the info,
I'II update the list now.

[Lozzy]

I went through the whole audience peaks thread I mentioned earlier for every 100+ peak I could find. I can't guarantee that each one is accurate and it's certainly not a complete list, but I'll post it here anyway in case anyone's interested. It's formatted this way to save space.

255. "We Belong Together" & 233. "Irreplaceable" & 218. "Shake It Off" & 206. "Check On It" & 203. "Let Me Love You" & 201. "Be Without You" & 198. "Yeah!" & 196. "Don't Forget About Us" & 192. "No One" & 179. "Set Fire To The Rain" & 176. "Gold Digger" & 176. "My Love" & 175. "Say It Right" & 168. "Rolling In The Deep" & 167. "SexyBack" & 165. "What's My Name?" & 164. "Wide Awake" & 162. "Check On It" & 158. "Fallin'" & 158. "Live Your Life" & 157. "Someone Like You" & 156. "Baby Boy" & 155. "Foolish" & 154. "Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)" & 154. "Rude Boy" & 154. "We Found Love" & 151. "E.T." & 148. "Nothin' On You" & 147. "Firework" & 146. "I'm Real" & 146. "All I Have" & 146. "OMG" & 146. "Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)" & 145. "Love In This Club" & 144. "California Gurls" & 144. "Just The Way You Are" & 142. "What Goes Around... Comes Around" & 141. "Love The Way You Lie" & 141. "Grenade" & 141. "Party Rock Anthem" & 141. "It Will Rain" & 136. "Turn Me On" & 135. "Umbrella" & 135. "Bleeding Love" & 132. "Touch My Body" & 132. "TiK ToK" & 130. "I Know What You Want" & 130. "Need You Now" & 130. "S&M" & 128. "Teenage Dream" & 128. "Super Bass" & 127. "Only Girl (In The World)" & 127. "Part Of Me" & 125. "I Gotta Feeling" & 124. "Knock You Down" & 123. "The One That Got Away" & 122. "You Belong With Me" & 122. "Without You" & 121. "Take A Bow" & 121. "Boom Boom Pow" & 120. "BedRock" & 120. "Airplanes" & 120. "Raise Your Glass" & 120. "Take Care" & 119. "Bad Romance" & 119. "Lighters" & 118. "Dynamite" & 118. "Part Of Me" & 117. "Big Girls Don't Cry" & 117. "Poker Face" & 116. "Run This Town" & 116. "Find Your Love" & 116. "Just Can't Get Enough" & 114. "DJ Got Us Fallin' In Love" & 111. "Sexy And I Know It" & 111. "Give Your Heart A Break" & 110. "We R Who We R" & 110. "Born This Way" & 109. "Just A Dream" & 108. "SOS" & 108. "Sweet Dreams" & 108. "Perfect" & 106. "Love Story" & 106. "Replay" & 105. "If I Ain't Got You" & 105. "Paparazzi" & 105. "Break Your Heart" & 105. "I Like It" & 105. "The Edge Of Glory" & 104. "Just Dance" & 103. "Hey, Soul Sister" & 103. "Like A G6" & 102. "Boulevard Of Broken Dreams" & 102. "Promiscuous" & 102. "I Wanna Go" & 101. "The Sweet Escape" & 101. "Like You'll Never See Me Again" & 101. "Run This Town" & 101. "Mine" & 100. "Glamorous"