WolfSpear
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Post by WolfSpear on Feb 20, 2013 23:52:06 GMT -5
Just listened to the song ... Wow, that's worst #1 hit ever.
Ah well, I don't expect this to last more than 3 or 4 weeks, but you never know.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2013 23:54:15 GMT -5
Well I was having fun making jokes, then I see Bill retweet someone saying that this will help indie artists get more attention.
I am dumbfounded
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Feb 20, 2013 23:55:11 GMT -5
Just listened to the song ... Wow, that's worst #1 hit ever. Oh hai...  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2013 23:59:20 GMT -5
Well I was having fun making jokes, then I see Bill retweet someone saying that this will help indie artists get more attention. I am dumbfounded Right. Because lots of indie artist videos take off in this way! Except, you know, not. Honestly I have my suspicions about how organic this HS craze really is. Like I said before, this will most benefit the Rihannas and Gagas of the world. And maybe a few C-list lessers who are able to get a video budget from their label, or strike lightning with a really great video concept that catches a lot of people's attention. |
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Feb 21, 2013 0:02:53 GMT -5
I think the next addition should be Last.fm scrobbles  Facebook Likes for sure. They already have data in their social chart even. |
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Adam (UTR)
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Post by Adam (UTR) on Feb 21, 2013 0:09:40 GMT -5
Had to make a blog post from the announcement; some things have already been said in here, but it could've been handled so much better than it was. |
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stetz
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Post by stetz on Feb 21, 2013 0:10:48 GMT -5
I'm really curious what's going to be popping up in the lower reaches of the chart tomorrow, or what songs might get thrown off the chart alltogether
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Feb 21, 2013 0:14:24 GMT -5
I think the next addition should be Last.fm scrobbles This got brought up in one of the way-too-many Twitter conversations I've had about it tonight, but I don't think this will happen because Last.fm isn't used (in my opinion) by the "mainstream;" my impression is that most of its current users are those of us who are more interested and invested in music. If it does get added, I hope it's weighted rather lowly. I bet Anna Kendrick's Cups will benefit with this rule change Definitely, and it's going to pop radio next week (no, seriously), so I could see that benefiting quite well from the change. Well I was having fun making jokes, then I see Bill retweet someone saying that this will help indie artists get more attention. I am dumbfounded Right. Because lots of indie artist videos take off in this way! Except, you know, not. Honestly I have my suspicions about how organic this HS craze really is. Like I said before, this will most benefit the Rihannas and Gagas of the world. And maybe a few C-list lessers who are able to get a video budget from their label, or strike lightning with a really great video concept that catches a lot of people's attention. I agree that the mainstream artists are still going to be helped most by this--these two plus Bieber, One Direction, etc.--perhaps it could even help Lana Del Rey since her videos get so much attention for their artistry. I think it'll be interesting to see if more artists, especially new ones, produce videos with an aim for them to "go viral," for better or for worse. The Hot 100 is not about video's popularity or viral videos sensations, it's about the most popular songs in the US I agree with you above, but not here: no matter how people try to spn it, this new rule is such a mistake, dear lord. The Hot 100--and Billboard as a whole--is designed to rank the popularity of songs each week in the US. If songs are being used heavily in videos, then how are they not popular? While I think giving such weight to only 30-second samples of songs is a bit much (why not count synchronized airplay in TV/video commercials at that point?), I believe that the change more accurately reflects the overall cultural popularity of a given song each week. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 0:16:39 GMT -5
OMG look at this: ""Shake," in fact, leads the Hot 100 with three-and-a-half times the overall chart points total of "Shop." It won by 250%! When, if ever, has this happened? And the formula is insane! So much for Thrift Shop beating One Sweet Day... What the actual f**k?! I just can't! They definitely need to rethink their formula because that's obviously not right. I mean, a few guys were watching the HS videos today at school, but most people had never seen them before. Do you know how many freaking times I hear people quoting or singing "Thrift Shop" in the halls? TONS! I'm all for the rule change, but the formula is ALL WRONG. Because Harlem Shake has only been popular for a week. This is the same as when songs debut at #1 from sales, it gained the most new listeners but obviously it still has less overall listeners than something out for months. |
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on Feb 21, 2013 0:18:17 GMT -5
Paul Grein, I wanted to know what you think about the new rules and not how many songs begin with the word “Harlem” (!)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 0:23:13 GMT -5
So... I guess the tracking system is filtering out only the U.S. views. Going by the numbers for some others (i.e. "Stay"), does that mean a heckuva lot of views on YouTube are coming from outside the USA? I wonder if there's a filter from picking up one computer user who actively refreshes and watches and watches and watches.  There's a "unique viewers" feature available to video uploaders, Billboard probably has access to it. I wonder if Kony or Friday would have been #1, lmao. Songs in movies should also be counted in airplay. Also commercials. |
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WolfSpear
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Post by WolfSpear on Feb 21, 2013 0:39:14 GMT -5
You guys are crazy tonight! I wouldn't be surprised if they count iTunes spins in the mix... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 0:39:49 GMT -5
Does this Bill guy even realize WHY people watch all the Harlem Shake videos?
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Feb 21, 2013 0:44:34 GMT -5
I think YouTube views and streaming should have a significant impact on the charts, honestly. It's 2013, the internet is one of the most prevalent ways people are getting their music now. The old radio/sales only method was definitely antiquated, even though I know a lot of people here miss it because it's what we were used to.
I'm not totally sure if this system is the best way of going about that, though, if an obvious novelty hit like Harlem Shake can rocket to #1 just because a bunch of people decided to record themselves dancing to it. It just feels kinda....wrong.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Feb 21, 2013 0:50:08 GMT -5
Some tweets from Bill Werde:
The new #Hot100 has a target chart ratio of sales (35-45%), airplay (30-40%) and streaming (20-30%). These change based on platform volume.
So you can see, on a typical week, @youtube streams are part of a 20-35% slice that also includes spotify, rdio, Vevo (thru YouTube) etc.
The YouTube data--like all #Hot100 data--is US only. YouTube de-spams for bots & data irregularities, and we do too, as on all data sources.
We happened to launch @youtube data on a week when @baauer was having a truly, singularly historic run on YouTube. It dwarfed PSY peaks.
I'm glad the chart finally reflects a phenomenon like the #HarlemShake properly. Its scale is scary huge.
Me: @bwerde Was there a reason for picking this week in particular? It seems arbitrary to us "outsiders," as I'm sure your mentions have shown.
Bill: @kurttrowbridge yes: it was ready.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 1:01:23 GMT -5
Does this Bill guy even realize WHY people watch all the Harlem Shake videos? So they can laugh and then buy it? Probably, considering it's selling around 400k a week right now. I don't see why people are saying this will get Bieber to debut at #1... Rihanna's only #3 despite selling 300k and launching a big video Monday. |
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Feb 21, 2013 1:01:57 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 1:04:12 GMT -5
Psy was getting 70 million a week, and that's worlwide. Its US peak was probably around 30 million (or less) which is less than a third of that Harlem Shake got this week. |
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Post by Rocky on Feb 21, 2013 1:06:49 GMT -5
Okay. Just woke up to see that HS topped Hot 100. Wait what????¿ A single selling 260k, almost no airplay topping another one with ovet 400k downloads and 150M airplay and record-brakig on-demand streams.
That's crazy. Congratz Billboard! After so many trys you succeeded to make your main chart totally irrelevant. Bye.
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musicrocks
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Post by musicrocks on Feb 21, 2013 1:07:14 GMT -5
Surprised no one posted this: www.billboard.com/articles/news/1549399/hot-100-news-billboard-and-nielsen-add-youtube-video-streaming-to-platformsHot 100 News: Billboard and Nielsen Add YouTube Video Streaming to Platforms Data enhances Hot 100 and other Billboard charts to reflect online video activity Billboard and Nielsen announced today the addition of U.S. YouTube video streaming data to its platforms, which includes an update to the methodology for the Billboard Hot 100, the preeminent singles chart. The YouTube streaming data is now factored into the chart's ranking, enhancing a formula that includes Nielsen's digital download track sales and physical singles sales; as well as terrestrial radio airplay, on-demand audio streaming, and online radio streaming, also tracked by Nielsen. Billboard is now incorporating all official videos on YouTube captured by Nielsen's streaming measurement, including Vevo on YouTube, and user-generated clips that utilize authorized audio into the Hot 100 and the Hot 100 formula-based genre charts – Hot Country Songs, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs, R&B Songs, Rap Songs, Hot Latin Songs, Hot Rock Songs and Dance/Electronic Songs – to further reflect the divergent platforms for music consumption in today's world. The most notable YouTube-influenced title this week is viral sensation "Harlem Shake" by producer Baauer, which debuts at No. 1 on both the Hot 100 and Streaming Songs charts and jumps 12-1 on Dance/Electronic Songs with 103 million views, according to YouTube. According to Nielsen, the "Harlem Shake" arrival also benefits from viral video-influenced sales of 262,000 downloads. That sales sum alone, good for a No. 3 ranking on Hot Digital Songs, would have placed the track within the top 15 on the Hot 100 without the inclusion of YouTube streams into the calculation. Other YouTube-influenced highlights on the Hot 100 include Rihanna's "Stay" which jumps 57-3 and Drake's "Started From the Bottom" which soars 63-10. Videos for both songs were posted on YouTube during the tracking week, with Rihanna's title garnering 3.8 million views in the U.S. and Drake's "Started" earning 5.1 million. In addition, perennial YouTube favorite PSY rebounds 48-26 on the Hot 100 with "Gangnam Style" which adds another 3.7 million streams this week to its already impressive streaming total. The inclusion of YouTube streaming data comes nearly one year after Billboard and Nielsen launched the On-Demand Songs chart and added streaming data from leading on-demand subscription services such as Spotify, Muve Music, Rhapsody, Slacker, Rdio and Xbox Music to its chart and tracking offerings. In addition, YouTube data will also contribute to Billboard's Streaming Songs chart, launched last month, which blends all of the available streaming sources into one ranking. The updated Hot 100, Hot 100-based genre charts and Streaming Songs chart will be available on Billboard.com tomorrow morning (February 21). |
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Feb 21, 2013 1:10:53 GMT -5
I don't see why people are saying this will get Bieber to debut at #1... Rihanna's only #3 despite selling 300k and launching a big video Monday. Combining high digital sales due to a song release, streaming plays, first-week airplay (which is iffy, but a Clear Channel deal factored in would be a significant boost), and views for potentially a lyric video and a music video (plus whatever the fans come up with to help it) could do it, I think. Wouldn't the "receipts" in that case be tomorrow's chart, or am I confused on what you're saying? (I am a tad suspicious of the claim that they just happened to finish the data collection and whatnot this week, though, especially since Nielsen has been tracking YouTube plays since June.) |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 21, 2013 1:11:51 GMT -5
The people at Billboard are taking their time to post the Hot 100 article today, wut's happening? maybe changes to the formula? Baauer? lol :x Still no article... Only sure thing is that "Thrift Shop" will hold at No. 1. :) The problem I have with it is that it's very inaccurate at measuring a song's actual popularity. For example, check out the number of views for Kelly Clarkson's "Stronger" versus Bieber's "Baby." Which one is the bigger hit? Which one would now be placed higher because of the new rule? Yeah... Stronger is the bigger "hit" using traditional methods and formulas and definitions but despite Baby's lack of radio airplay, everyone I knew knew the melody and often sang the annoyingly catchy chorus. I think people rely too much on radio airplay as a method of determining popularity and what makes a "hit". As mad as people seem to be, I actually think this is potentially good because let's face it, what song did we hear more about in the last week than any other? Harlam Shake. People might not consider it to be a *real* song because it's so short in the clips we know of but a song is a song and it's available digitally. I think it's deserving of the title of most popular song of the week, even if it falls to #75 next week. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 1:15:42 GMT -5
How would it fall to #75 next week? It's still #1 on iTunes and probably would be top 5/10 with the normal formula.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 1:21:30 GMT -5
Yeah, but that's ALL the meme videos counted, right? HS is a craze but it doesn't (yet) seem nearly as big as GS, even when GS was still low in airplay. (this was in response to Codex's post about Psy at his peak having less than a third of HS's views this week) I don't see why people are saying this will get Bieber to debut at #1... Rihanna's only #3 despite selling 300k and launching a big video Monday. "Stay"'s airplay is still kind of low though, while her video views are not as high as HS's. She's a beneficiary too (I don't think she would have jumped to as high as #3 without this addition), just not to the extent that HS is. I think the assumption people have is that labels will now line up their promotion to give the songs the biggest launches possible - they'll start it off with a CC deal to make sure it gets a head start in airplay, and once it's broken top 10 airplay launch the video. And I imagine this is a strategy that would be reserved for lead tracks, probably not one used much on subsequent singles. Random note: "Started From the Bottom"'s jump into the top 10 is probably also partially due to this change. That video also just came out last week. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 21, 2013 1:22:43 GMT -5
So if I put a video on YouTube and a ton of people watch it, I could make the HOT100. LOL! Let's do it! Then we can finally get that hit song we were talking about! |
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Feb 21, 2013 1:26:01 GMT -5
So if I put a video on YouTube and a ton of people watch it, I could make the HOT100. LOL! Let's do it! Then we can finally get that hit song we were talking about! I asked Bill if I could chart by putting a trombone cover of a pop song on YouTube and he said it'd be tough to get to 20M views. Good luck though!  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2013 1:26:32 GMT -5
I was telling someone earlier that we should make a Pulse song and video, lol
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Feb 21, 2013 1:31:24 GMT -5
It's funny how BB is 30 years late to the video game. When MTV airplay was influencing what people were buying, it was obviously reflected in single sales and album sales (pre-SoundScan). I thought video play should be a component of airplay because MTV's plays reached millions of viewers - sometimes far more than radio. The songs featured on MTV fit the definition of "popular." I don't have a problem with the addition of YouTube, but it's odd that BB is making the changes out of nowhere. I'm sure the formula will continue to be tweaked, just like the ration of digital sales to airplay was adjusted a few years ago once sales surged. It's all arbitrary. The H100 is a big mess - I'm starting to become much more interested in the component charts as a better gauge.
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 21, 2013 1:31:28 GMT -5
This is exactly the same problem that arose with the "pop airplay applies to the country chart" debacle; it would not be a controversial change if the immediate beneficiary didn't look so dubious. If any other song had rocketed to number one as a result of this change (even a Justin Bieber song), this wouldn't be half as controversial. I think it takes such a situation to make them realize they need to change. I bet this change was a last minute decision due to the sudden popularity of the Harlam Shake (dare I call it a) movement. They figured since that song was as popular as it is, and it's an actual song, the Hot 100 would look foolish to not represent it as it should be if they want to remain relevant, despite the controversy it would cause. It's like when the Eagles sold 700k with only Wal-Mart sales. I'm sure that was an instant decision too because you can't ignore something that big without it reflecting poorly on your accuracy and what you're supposed to be reporting. Counting youtube is fine, counting 30 second clips is not. I honestly can't believe they are counting those. It's completely baffling. People are still hearing the song every time they watch a different video. So it's not that baffling I wouldn't say. |
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Feb 21, 2013 1:34:31 GMT -5
Trying to figure out the formula. If it were 1k downloads=1 mil audience=100k streams, it'd be 624 vs. 1294. Only about 2x the points, not 3.5. Maybe 1k downloads=1 mil audience=50k streams? 2324 vs. 725. About 3.2x the points, not 3.5. Awkwardly, I tried 1k downloads=500k audience=33k streams, also known as (streaming*3) + digital + (radio*2). 3356/937=3.58 and about 3 and a half. But those would be some random numbers to choose. And that would give me Stay 471 Scream and Shout 498 Since S&S is higher in radio and streaming, I must be over-weighing one or both of those. But if I decreased radio's weight, then Harlem would beat Thrift by more than 2.58. If I try decreasing streaming's weight to 1k downloads=500k audience=33k streams, Harlem isn't winning by enough and Scream and Shout is still higher than Stay. Eh, I give up. Hot 100 will just be a mystery more than ever... I think this is the new Hot 100 formula: 100k downloads = 62.5 mil AI = 4 million streams. In other words, points = sales + airplay *1.6 + streaming * 25 The math works out well for Harlem and Thrift Shop. It also works for Stay vs S&S. This formula means that a viral video (100 million streams) is equivalent to 2.5 million digital downloads! |
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