Billboard Hot 100: 03/02/13

[josh]

Feb 20, 2013 13:54:42 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Year to date track sales are at 200.41 million, down 1% compared to the same total at this point last year (202.78 million).

The beginning of streaming taking over digital sales?

I blame Adele. Also Katy debuting Part of Me.

[nivekwriter1]

Feb 20, 2013 13:41:25 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Why are you predicting next week's chart in this week's thread? (3/02/12).
That is confusing, isn't it?

Yes, you're right. From now, I'II only will post predictions from the same week.

[josh]

Feb 20, 2013 11:03:24 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Billboard.com:

ver on the Digital Songs chart, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Thrift Shop" (featuring Wanz) reigns for a sixth week. It logs its best sales week yet, moving 412,000 downloads (up 6%). In a somewhat distant second place is Rihanna's "Stay" (featuring Mikky Ekko), which drives 25-2 with 306,000 (up 358%). The song was performed on the Grammy Awards, while its music video also debuting during the tracking week.

Baauer's red-hot "Harlem Shake" debuts at No. 3 on Digital Songs with 262,000 (up 1,359% from 18,000). The song -- as featured in countless YouTube viral videos -- was released commercially last June. It didn't start to sell significant units until a week ago, when it moved 18,000 after the "Harlem Shake" meme began to take hold.

Bruno Mars' "When I Was Your Man" is steady at No. 4 with 217,000 (up 36%), Justin Timberlake's "Suit & Tie" (featuring Jay-Z) rises 8-5 (201,000; up 67%) and the Lumineers' "Ho Hey" is stationary at No. 6 (192,000; up 30%). The latter two songs were both performed on the Grammy Awards.

Drake's new single "Started From the Bottom" flies 32-8 with 168,000 (up 185%) after its first full week of sales. The song debuted last week (ending Feb. 10) after four days of impact, as it was released on Feb. 7.

Timberlake's new song "Mirrors" enters the top 10 at No. 9 with 163,000, after it hit iTunes early on Monday morning, Feb. 11. The song -- from his forthcoming "20/20 Experience" album -- was either available as a stand-alone track purchase, or, as an instant-gratification download when a customer pre-ordered the album. (The customer was immediately charged for the track in either instance.)

Closing out the top 10 is will.i.am & Britney Spears' "Scream & Shout," which falls 2-10 with 158,000 (down 3%).

Owed mostly to buzz generated by the Grammy Awards, the entire top 16 titles on the Digital Songs chart all sell in excess of 100,000. The last time that happened -- not counting the Christmas holiday weeks -- was last April, when Easter helped push the top 16 all to 100,000-plus sales.

Digital track sales this past week totaled 29.43 million downloads, up 8% compared with last week (32.28 million) and down 9% stacked next to the comparable week of 2012 (32.23 million). Year to date track sales are at 200.41 million, down 1% compared to the same total at this point last year (202.78 million).

Is this missing #7? I would imagine it's Locked Out of Heaven, right?

[Get Your Life.]

So does Stay actually have streaming? I thought everyone was saying it would move up to #9, but certainly not #3

[ToggleTog]

"I Will Wait" is number seven. It sold 177,000 copies this past week.

[areyoureadytojump]

I posted this late in last week's Hot 100 thread, but wanted to re-post it here so people will actually see it.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/1539383/weekly-chart-notes-could-ac-be-the-next-piece-in-pop-radios

2/26 Hot 100 chart

TAYLOR GAINS, RIHANNA RISES: With debuts on the Hot 100, Taylor Swift edges closer to the mark for the most career entries among women, while Rihanna equals an icon's output.

Rihanna launches at No. 57 with "Stay," featuring Mikky Ekko, and Swift arrives two notches lower as a duet partner with Tim McGraw on "Highway Don't Care."

With Swift scoring her 58th Hot 100 hit and Rihanna registering her 41st – tying Barbra Streisand – here is an updated look at the most Hot 100 visits among women in the chart's 54-year history:

73, Aretha Franklin
58, Taylor Swift *new*
56, Madonna
56, Dionne Warwick
53, Connie Francis
48, Brenda Lee
44, Mariah Carey
42, Nicki Minaj
41, Rihanna *new*
41, Barbra Streisand
40, Mary J. Blige
40, Diana Ross

[areyoureadytojump]

Rhianna Tweeted:

@rihanna

#epic day already, I woke up to sunshine in paradise and #STAY done jumped 54 spots to #3 on the BillboardHot100!!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not confirmed by Billboard yet.

I gotta find my Top 10 singles list now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

If true:

Artists With the Most Hot 100 Top 10s:

38, Madonna
34, the Beatles
28, Michael Jackson
28, Stevie Wonder
27, Mariah Carey
27, Janet Jackson
27, Elton John
25, Elvis Presley (whose career predates the Hot 100's Aug. 4, 1958, launch)
24, Rihanna *new*
23, Whitney Houston
23, the Rolling Stones
22, Paul McCartney
20, Chicago
20, the Supremes

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Feb 20, 2013 14:31:41 GMT -5 Get Your Life. said:

So does Stay actually have streaming? I thought everyone was saying it would move up to #9, but certainly not #3

To get to #3 would require a healthy dose of streaming points. 306,000 downloads/12 = 25,500 chart points, plus airplay of 20+ million only gets the song to 28,000+ chart points.

I figure the #3 song will need at least 32,000 points, which means 4,000 chart points from streaming. That is about 600,000 on demand streams (using a factor 150 streams per point).

[Deleted]

The Stay video got around 25 million youtube views last week, maybe that was enough to push it into the top 3? I'm still not sure if that even counts.

[Au$tin]

I'm pretty sure "Stay" is available on passive streaming sites, but it's not available on on-demand sites. Well, it's not on Spotify, anyway. I'm pretty sure VEVO does not count.

[Rocky]

Youtube views count as passive streaming, but they use it as tie-breaker.

Not sure if just VEVO counts or every version on Youtube. That'd be important for novelty hits.

[NeRD]

Feb 20, 2013 15:45:35 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Feb 20, 2013 14:31:41 GMT -5 Get Your Life. said:

So does Stay actually have streaming? I thought everyone was saying it would move up to #9, but certainly not #3

To get to #3 would require a healthy dose of streaming points. 306,000 downloads/12 = 25,500 chart points, plus airplay of 20+ million only gets the song to 28,000+ chart points.

I figure the #3 song will need at least 32,000 points, which means 4,000 chart points from streaming. That is about 600,000 on demand streams (using a factor 150 streams per point).

Yeah, like, it has to be available somewhere for it to be this high. ???

[Au$tin]

We should know soon enough. The top ten write-up has to be coming out sooner or later.

[josh]

There's always the possibility Rihanna heard wrong. Because #3 without streaming and not much airplay doesn't make sense.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

I wonder if there is an issue with this week's Hot 100. Rarely does it take this long to post the top 10 results.

I am pretty sure VEVO does not get included in the passive streaming #s. I can't imagine that Youtube contributes much, otherwise "Gangnam Style" would have likely hit #1.

[Deleted]

Feb 20, 2013 16:25:17 GMT -5 josh said:

There's always the possibility Rihanna heard wrong. Because #3 without streaming and not much airplay doesn't make sense.

Maybe she heard wrong and it's actually #13?

[Au$tin]

Feb 20, 2013 16:31:05 GMT -5 Codex said:

Feb 20, 2013 16:25:17 GMT -5 josh said:

There's always the possibility Rihanna heard wrong. Because #3 without streaming and not much airplay doesn't make sense.

Maybe she heard wrong and it's actually #13?

I'd believe it, to be honest.

[josh]

Does anyone know which chart week is the first of this Billboard year (for year-end purposes)? And what chart is the first that counts towards the BB Awards in the spring?

[Living Legend]

Feb 20, 2013 17:17:58 GMT -5 josh said:

Does anyone know which chart week is the first of this Billboard year (for year-end purposes)? And what chart is the first that counts towards the BB Awards in the spring?

For the Billboard Year End, I think it started with December 1, 2012. For the Billboard Awards, I think it started the week of March 1, 2012 and ended last week.

[RadioBeatz]

The people at Billboard are taking their time to post the Hot 100 article today, wut's happening? maybe changes to the formula? Baauer? lol :x

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Feb 20, 2013 17:56:09 GMT -5 RadioBeatz said:

The people at Billboard are taking their time to post the Hot 100 article today, wut's happening? maybe changes to the formula? Baauer? lol :x

My guess is they found an error (s) and had to re-run the chart. So maybe "Stay" was #3 on the first (incorrect) run. Just speculating though.

[HolidayGuy]

Still no article...

Only sure thing is that "Thrift Shop" will hold at No. 1. :)

[josh]

Maybe they made a rule change (lowering stream weighting?) which is why "Stay" is so high?

[AP]

From the Associate Director of Charts at Billboard....

Keith Caulfield ‏keith_caulfield
So… big billboard chart news coming up…

Keith Caulfield ‏keith_caulfield
Like, big. Really big.

[Arabella21]

LOL, what's going on, no more Hot 100?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

This should be interesting. Are they changing their airplay ratios or something?

[HolidayGuy]

Snap- "Harlem Shake" is No. 1.

[fridayteenage]

OMG WTF. How are they going to properly count this?

People on this board have talked about the logistical difficulties.

Is every video on Youtube that plays a song going to count? What if there's a video that has like half of one song and half of another? How does 1 Youtube view compare to 1 download in terms of points? Will Vevo official videos count more? Will VEVO.com count more than Vevo on Youtube? It's madness!

How long would Call Me Maybe have ruled? And I SEE THAT THEY DO THIS NOT FOR THE ASIAN ARTIST'S SONG but for a white dude. I see.

[Au$tin]

Feb 20, 2013 19:09:42 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Snap- "Harlem Shake" is No. 1.

... Wut? ...

[Au$tin]

Fuck it. I'm done with Billboard.