fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Feb 22, 2013 11:00:09 GMT -5
More realistically: They get 5 million views and it debuts at #99, lmao. To get #1 without sales or airplay you'd need, what, 150 million views in a week? Just in the US... Also, people need to realize that this is just in the US. International views do not count... That's (part of the reason) why it's getting a lot of its negative feedback. People have tried calculating. Two estimates are that Harlem's 103 mil views were equivalent to about 2.5 million downloads or 3.8 million downloads. So even if you had just 40 mil views with zero downloads or airplay, that would be like having either a million or 1.5 million downloads. So you would totally be #1. Given that Thrift Shop's 150k advantage in sales and 109 mil advantage in airplay gave it only 29% the points of Harlem Shake, that makes sense. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 11:13:56 GMT -5
40 million is still a lot, has any song besides Gangnam Style and Harlem Shake gotten close to that much?
Do we know what % of views come from America? I'd assume less than a third of overall views, depending on what the artist is.
"On February 10, the upload rate of Harlem Shake videos reached 4,000 per day. As of February 11, about 12,000 versions of the popular Internet meme had been uploaded to YouTube, garnering over 44 million unique views. As of February 15, about 40,000 Harlem Shake videos had been uploaded, totalling 175 million views."
Does anyone have updated figures for this?
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Feb 22, 2013 12:23:47 GMT -5
IKYWT is on fire! She hasn't had an airplay hit since You Belong With Me and Love Story!
And I know it's only hit #2 on the Hot 100, but I already feel it's so much bigger than WANEGBT. And internationally, IKYWT is doing amazing, #2 in UK, #2 in Canada.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 12:55:50 GMT -5
IKYWT is on fire! She hasn't had an airplay hit since You Belong With Me and Love Story! ??? Fifteen, Mine, Back to December, Mean, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 22, 2013 13:15:49 GMT -5
What are numbers usually like for youtube videos? Didn't Beauty And A Beat break a record for 10 million views in its first week of release or first day or something? I think on average, music videos will barely break past a couple million views in a single week so this 103 million views for HS is DEFINITELY an anomaly if that's the case.
Despite what I've been saying for pages upon pages and topics upon topics that I think the new rule change is great for the Hot 100, counting the 30 second clips is probably its biggest weakness. I have no doubt that Harlem Shake, for all intents and purposes, was THE most popular song last week, but its huge points margin and the 30 second video maybe needs work. So keep the new methodology but tinker the finer print.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Feb 22, 2013 13:17:08 GMT -5
IKYWT is on fire! She hasn't had an airplay hit since You Belong With Me and Love Story! ??? Fifteen, Mine, Back to December, Mean, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together Sorry, I meant huge airplay hit. WANEGBT started off on fire but then fizzed. |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 13:20:08 GMT -5
??? Fifteen, Mine, Back to December, Mean, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together Sorry, I meant huge airplay hit. WANEGBT started off on fire but then fizzed. WANEGBT peaked at #3 on airplay, though. You want something that started off on fire and then fizzed, look at "You Da One" or "Give Me All Your Luvin'." |
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Feb 22, 2013 13:42:44 GMT -5
IKYWT is on fire! She hasn't had an airplay hit since You Belong With Me and Love Story! And I know it's only hit #2 on the Hot 100, but I already feel it's so much bigger than WANEGBT. And internationally, IKYWT is doing amazing, #2 in UK, #2 in Canada. It's also out sold WANGBT |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 22, 2013 14:04:23 GMT -5
WANEGBT may have "fizzled" on country quicker than most of her releases, but it did pretty well in airplay, overall. Not the longevity of a "Love Story" or "You Belong with Me," but perfectly fine by any other standards.
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Post by josh on Feb 22, 2013 14:55:39 GMT -5
What are numbers usually like for youtube videos? Didn't Beauty And A Beat break a record for 10 million views in its first week of release or first day or something? I think on average, music videos will barely break past a couple million views in a single week so this 103 million views for HS is DEFINITELY an anomaly if that's the case. Despite what I've been saying for pages upon pages and topics upon topics that I think the new rule change is great for the Hot 100, counting the 30 second clips is probably its biggest weakness. I have no doubt that Harlem Shake, for all intents and purposes, was THE most popular song last week, but its huge points margin and the 30 second video maybe needs work. So keep the new methodology but tinker the finer print. BAAB broke 10 million in its first 24 hours. I'm sure it made 20, maybe even 30 million by a week. Not sure how much was US, though. |
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Feb 22, 2013 15:29:11 GMT -5
Well with the new formula I won't even bother trying to guess the top 10, or even the top 3! More and more I find myself looking at the Itunes pop bars to try and judge the most popular song in the US.But isn't Harlem Shake #1 on iTunes? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 15:35:58 GMT -5
Well with the new formula I won't even bother trying to guess the top 10, or even the top 3! More and more I find myself looking at the Itunes pop bars to try and judge the most popular song in the US.But isn't Harlem Shake #1 on iTunes? LOL - yes |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 15:40:30 GMT -5
What I think he means is digital sales, rather than iTunes. "Thrift Shop" sold over 400k last compared to "Harlem Shake"'s 260k. They're pretty much on the same level on iTunes right now when you combine all of "Thrift Shop"'s multiple versions. I'd suspect them to be less than 50k away from each other in next week's digital sales chart.
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on Feb 22, 2013 15:45:26 GMT -5
Most of the general public are only truly aware of the BIG BIG BIG smashes. Everything else is passively consumed and forgotten.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 15:47:41 GMT -5
What I think he means is digital sales, rather than iTunes. "Thrift Shop" sold over 400k last compared to "Harlem Shake"'s 260k. They're pretty much on the same level on iTunes right now when you combine all of "Thrift Shop"'s multiple versions. I'd suspect them to be less than 50k away from each other in next week's digital sales chart. I don't do pop bars and so forth. I like most other people who may rely on itunes to see what is popular digitally in the here and now will see Harlem Shake at #1 |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 15:52:25 GMT -5
What I think he means is digital sales, rather than iTunes. "Thrift Shop" sold over 400k last compared to "Harlem Shake"'s 260k. They're pretty much on the same level on iTunes right now when you combine all of "Thrift Shop"'s multiple versions. I'd suspect them to be less than 50k away from each other in next week's digital sales chart. I don't do pop bars and so forth. I like most other people who may rely on itunes to see what is popular digitally in the here and now will see Harlem Shake at #1 Whoa. I'm not the person who said they relied on iTunes to tell them what's popular. I was just stating some facts. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 16:13:15 GMT -5
No problem but it does support an important point. Harlem Shake sits atop itunes due to the 30 second youtube clips. Without exposure to youtube, no one would have ever heard of this. (The actual single has been out for quite a while)
The two go hand in hand. So since youtube is a clear driver of popularity as it is in this case, it makes sense to include it in the Hot 100 calculations.
So those who give up on the Hot 100 and go looking for itunes as a guide because they don't like the youtube change may be in for a surprise from time to time.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 16:15:33 GMT -5
The two go hand in hand. So since youtube is a clear driver of popularity as it is in this case, it makes sense to include it in the Hot 100 calculations. Oh, definitely. It takes more than just one component to find out what's popular. |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Feb 22, 2013 16:46:42 GMT -5
WANEGBT may have "fizzled" on country quicker than most of her releases, but it did pretty well in airplay, overall. Not the longevity of a "Love Story" or "You Belong with Me," but perfectly fine by any other standards. Agreed. But IKYWT seems to be a monster airplay hit. She hasn't had something this huge since You Belong With Me, and they both peaked at #2. I'm just wondering if IKYWT will have the longevity of You Belong with Me and Love Story. I still find it amazing she held the top 2 year end radio songs of 2009! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 18:01:50 GMT -5
Glad to see Carrie's gains building up some more steam.
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Feb 22, 2013 18:15:08 GMT -5
No problem but it does support an important point. Harlem Shake sits atop itunes due to the 30 second youtube clips. Without exposure to youtube, no one would have ever heard of this. (The actual single has been out for quite a while) The two go hand in hand. So since youtube is a clear driver of popularity as it is in this case, it makes sense to include it in the Hot 100 calculations. So those who give up on the Hot 100 and go looking for itunes as a guide because they don't like the youtube change may be in for a surprise from time to time. Agreed, so to my way of thinking Youtube should be viewed in a similar light as radio airplay, which would mean 103 million streams would be equal to almost 14,000 chart points. Now that number makes more sense. |
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Feb 22, 2013 18:52:25 GMT -5
Maybe someone needs to make daily Youtube updates. Can we determine the youtube updates for US area only? What we see on youtube numbers is worldwide numbers Yeah, unfortunately there is no US Youtube. Change the country at the end to 'CA' for instance: www.youtube.com/charts/videos_views/?gl=BRYou can do it for all the other countries, but US = Worldwide.  |
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kc98
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Post by kc98 on Feb 22, 2013 20:37:53 GMT -5
Sorry, I meant huge airplay hit. WANEGBT started off on fire but then fizzed. WANEGBT peaked at #3 on airplay, though. You want something that started off on fire and then fizzed, look at "You Da One" or "Give Me All Your Luvin'." Or Pound The Alarm.. :'( |
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leoapp
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Post by leoapp on Feb 23, 2013 2:52:26 GMT -5
Sometimes, for some annoying big hits (for example, Justin Bieber's Baby), many haters watch the music videos on youtube just to post negative comments, NOT because they like the song and want to watch the music video. So, it's really a bias. |
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Feb 23, 2013 3:55:05 GMT -5
Sometimes, for some annoying big hits (for example, Justin Bieber's Baby), many haters watch the music videos on youtube just to post negative comments, NOT because they like the song and want to watch the music video. So, it's really a bias. Yeah, that could be one of the biggest problems with putting so much weight on Youtube videos. The more notorious the song or artist, the bigger the hit! Nobody buys a song that they hate (unless they are buying it for someone else), but I could see many people watching a Youtube video just so they could criticize it. |
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Feb 23, 2013 7:46:43 GMT -5
SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:
1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 195.133 (- 0.297)
2. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 164.644 (- 0.517)
3. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 164.556 (+ 2.264)
4. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 161.307 (- 0.101)
5. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 143.027 (+ 0.545)
6. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 133.327 (- 0.860)
7. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 127.472 (+ 2.133)
8. PINK – Try: 112.519 (- 1.125)
9. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 108.381 (+ 2.001)
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 102.873 (+ 0.629)
11. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 96.628 (+ 0.506)
12. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 91.948 (- 1.732)
13. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 87.277 (+ 2.975)
14. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 82.122 (+ 1.928) ▲
15. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 80.638 (- 2.202) ▼
16. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 76.265 (- 1.196)
17. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 76.222 (+ 0.595)
18. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 75.752 (+ 0.540)
19. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 71.206 (+ 0.468)
20. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 69.520 (+ 0.211)
OTHERS:
KE$HA – C'mon: 67.461 (- 0.536)
TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 66.671 (- 0.045)
THE BAND PERRY – Better Dig Two: 63.289 4.155 (- 1.000)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 62.631 (- 0.055)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 54.345 (+ 0.405)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 49.369 (+ 0.505)
PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 48.788 (+ 1.343)
RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 40.344 (+ 1.640)
FUN. – Carry On: 39.686 (+ 1.028)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 37.484 (+ 0.108)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 37.457 (+ 0.600)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 35.144 (+ 1.005)
MUSE – Madness: 29.882 (+ 0.089)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 23.211 (+ 0.453)
KREWELLA – Alive: 22.168 (+ 1.282)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 16.178 (+ 0.612)
KELLY ROWLAND – Kisses Down Low: 9.774
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 8.959 (+ 0.028)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 7.626 (+ 0.939)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 5.696 (+ 0.144)
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 5.151
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 4.102 (+ 0.256)
MARIAH CAREY – Almost Home: 0.226 (+ 0.002)
CALVIN HARRIS – I Need Your Love: 0.049
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 23, 2013 11:48:57 GMT -5
Sometimes, for some annoying big hits (for example, Justin Bieber's Baby), many haters watch the music videos on youtube just to post negative comments, NOT because they like the song and want to watch the music video. So, it's really a bias. Sometimes haters listen to a song on the radio. Because they have no choice and are in the car with someone who loves the song. Radio is a bias too. |
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Feb 23, 2013 16:13:26 GMT -5
Based on the sample of one week, I think ASIDE from Harlem, the streaming seems to make sense. If estimated calculations are correct,
The #2 streamer (which has almost twice the streams as #3, and before this week was consistently breaking on-demand streaming records) has the points equivalent to 250k downloads. That's more than the points it's getting from radio (less than 200), but definitely less than the points it got from downloads (over 400).
I think even with Harlem, if they adjusted the worth of a Youtube view based on the % of a song someone listens to, it could even make a decent amount of sense. A 30-second clip only showcases 15% of the full song. So then it would have the points equivalent to 15-16 million streams. Which still showcases its streaming lead, as that's over 50% more than Thrift Shop's streaming points, but it wouldn't be able to just pick up #1 on Hot 100 so easily.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 16:36:22 GMT -5
^That would be difficult though because then Billboard would have to evaluate every case seperately, to see how long the clips are. Plus a lot of Harlem clips are compilation videos, which combine 5-6 minutes worth of 30 second clips so those would need extra weighting too, etc. Not worth it for them.
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Feb 23, 2013 16:52:38 GMT -5
List from areyoureadytojump:
Here's an updated ranking of the women with the most charted Hot 100 titles:
73, Aretha Franklin
58, Taylor Swift *new*
56, Madonna
56, Dionne Warwick
53, Connie Francis
48, Brenda Lee
44, Mariah Carey
42, Nicki Minaj
41, Barbra Streisand
40, Mary J. Blige
40, Diana Ross
39, Janet Jackson
39, Rihanna
39, Whitney Houston
Will Barbara score her 42 song if the song she performs shows up on the Hot 100 after her Oscar performance? I don't even know what she is performing and if the song ever showed up.
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