Billboard Hot 100: 04/20/2013

[jdanton2]

i wonder if the current system was in play with streaming included would Katy Perry have had 5 #1 songs from her album?

[Deleted]

All her songs were huge Youtube hits, so probably.

[Lozzy]

ONE DIRECTION – Rock Me: 0.008

yass keep slaying

[NeRD]

Apr 6, 2013 8:49:25 GMT -5 Codex said:

All her songs were huge Youtube hits, so probably.

And even bigger digital sellers.

[Deleted]

Apr 6, 2013 8:27:03 GMT -5 jdanton2 said:

i wonder if the current system was in play with streaming included would Katy Perry have had 5 #1 songs from her album?

None of Katy's #1s coincided with the run of some big viral craze that could have charted (that I recall) so I see no reason why she couldn't have done it. Who knows, the streaming might have actually helped TOTGA be the sixth.

I think that under the new rules S&M probably would have hit #1 on its own when the video was released, rather than being unexpectedly blocked by ET and then needing a remix to give it that last push.

[Deleted]

Last Friday Night actually would have been blocked now that I think about it. It barely beat Party Rock Anthem which was a huge viral hit.

S&M hardly has any video views ET was also a huge youtube force so it likely would have blocked Rihanna even with the remix.

[Deleted]

Wasn't S&M video 18+? That definitely wouldn't have helped.

Teenage Dream mighta lost out to LTWYL, though, since that's like one of the most viewed videos ever.

[Deleted]

Yes S&M is 18+ and only has 40 million views.

[Lockheart]

Apr 6, 2013 11:47:18 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Wasn't S&M video 18+? That definitely wouldn't have helped.

Teenage Dream mighta lost out to LTWYL, though, since that's like one of the most viewed videos ever.

but LTWYL was a big hit internationally, hence the large video count. TD wasnt anywhere near that. So I think TD might have kept its two weeks, but PoM probably wouldnt

[crystalphnx]

Rihanna's label knows how to play the chart game, though...if YouTube had been a part of the Hot 100 when "S&M" was charting, they likely would've made a video for the Britney remix and somehow toned down the visuals enough to avoid the 18+ restriction, or made it so risque that people would take the time to log in to see it.

just like labels have found ways to work the sales component to their advantage (release the single when airplay is peaking, discount the single when airplay is peaking, release a remix when airplay is peaking, etc.), I think the labels who care enough about getting those No. 1's would have found ways to work YouTube to their advantage too.

I don't think "Stay"s airplay has started to peak quite yet, so it'll be interesting to see what Rihanna's label does (if anything) to give it a push to No. 1 when the time comes.

[Love Plastic Love]

I wonder if we will start seeing "director's cuts" or something videos coming out especially from the artists who really pushed quickie remixes and deep discounts on Itunes to ensure a #1? It will be interesting to see which solutions labels come up with to grab #1s now that the formula has changed a bit. It almost seems like we have more options now-do a deep discount, throw out a quickie remix, send out 10 Director's Cuts videos-BAM lol.

[Keelzit]

Stay's video already has 2 versions though (one-take and official) so it'll be interesting to see what they'll come up with. My money is on a Mikky Ekko in the bath one-take video.

[Deleted]

I had forgotten S&M was 18+. It wasn't even that scandalous to me.

I also had forgotten that LFN had struggled to get to #1. I recall now thinking Capitol had messed up b/c they'd waited until the song was almost past its peak to put it on sale - the one song that everyone thought was going to be the easiest #1 was the hardest. But the early buzz over the video might have helped it. Not that it matters now of course. But it is fun to think about it.

I'm also curious to see what IDJ does for "Stay." Streaming seems like such an obvious thing to do, they really should do that now so it can get a couple of weeks to build up some points. Other than that, I think it is going to come down to timing; if it seems that WIWYM and/or TS are too many points ahead and descending too slowly, they probably won't bother trying anything.

[Deleted]

The thing Capitol messed up in is releasing the LFN video right away. It made it rocket like 64-1 on iTunes and stay there for two weeks, but by the time it hit #1 on airplay it didn't have enough sales to be #1. It needed the extra 25-30k from the remix to do it.

But if Youtube was part of the formula I'm sure they would have waited to release the video, thus still getting #1.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

It would be a pity if "Stay" was denied the no. 1 spot because of the record label's strategy to boost sales. It is to my mind the strongest of the three ballads in the top 5 (I like all three). Not sure what is gained by keeping the song off the on-demand services.

[velaxti]

Apr 5, 2013 11:20:23 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

I know it's been tough to make predictions with much certainty since the inclusion of YouTube, but things are looking pretty good for Bruno, no? his airplay keeps growing as "Thrift Shop" plummets, and he's been No. 1 on iTunes since Tuesday thanks to the $0.69 discount.

I'm not a massive fan of "When I Was Your Man", but I'm ready for a new No. 1. this is gonna be the April 20th chart, and we've only had 3 songs at No. 1 this year:

"Locked Out Of Heaven" - 4 weeks (after 2 weeks in 2012)
"Thrift Shop" - 4 weeks
"Harlem Shake" - 5 weeks
"Thrift Shop" - 2 weeks (and counting...)

if we don't count LOOH (since it began its run at No. 1 in 2012), we've only had 2 songs reach No. 1 in 2013....

Doesn't 2005 hold the record for least #1s in a year? I wonder if we'll break that this year.

It's the opposite in the UK. We sometimes get 30+ #1s in a year. I prefer it ths way, just because that's what I'm used to. I'm sure most of you would hate it if the Hot 100 #1 changed every 1-2 weeks. Although I remember there being a period where it was almost like the UK chart late 2010.

As for Katy Perry's 5 #1s. I think California Gurls and E.T. would've still got #1 for sure definite, and probably Firework as well.

The questionable one is Last Friday Night, since its video was released too early.

Teenage Dream would have definitely missed out. Love the Way You Lie was huge on streaming (I'm talking both Spotify, etc. and Youtube). Teenage Dream wouldn't have stood a chance. Most of Katy's Youtube views come from outside the US as well, so she's in the same situation as Eminem in that regard.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Apr 6, 2013 7:11:21 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Billboard's lengthy analysis confirms what my initial projection mused. A 100,000 lead in sales will give WIWYM 8,333 chart points over TS, and a lead of 45 million AI (which is likely to be more) will give it 6,000+ additional chart points. Streaming is TS's strength and has been since it was released. I wouldn't be surprised if the point differential is less than 1,000 when the results are tallied on Wednesday.

the margin is much lower with bds than w media base.

[josh]

The difference in Mediabase airplay of the two right now is almost 60 million AI. By Wednesday it will be over 70 million, most likely.

Last Wednesday Thrift Shop was 108 BDS, 143 Mediabase. WIWYM was 142 BDS, 191 Mediabase. The difference was 34 BDS, 48 Mediabase. The BDS airplay was ~75% of Mediabase in these numbers.

75% of 60 is 45. Therefore he should be correct.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

It's the opposite in the UK. We sometimes get 30+ #1s in a year. I prefer it ths way, just because that's what I'm used to. I'm sure most of you would hate it if the Hot 100 #1 changed every 1-2 weeks. Although I remember there being a period where it was almost like the UK chart late 2010.

I think 30 #1s would be too much (memories of the late 80s), but fewer than 10 and the HOT 100 gets kind of boring. The digital songs chart has more turnover which makes it more "exciting" to follow. Every so often a "Thrift Shop" turns up spending 10+ weeks at #1, but that is rare.

[cesarams]

SUNDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 195.952 (+ 1.105)
2. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 172.880 (- 0.026)
3. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 139.265 (+ 3.527) ▲
4. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 138.774 (- 0.091) ▼
5. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 132.644 (- 3.162) ▼
6. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 120.985 (- 2.601)
7. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 107.952 (+ 1.734)
8. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 98.762 (- 1.078)
9. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 95.746 (+ 2.787) ▲
10. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 93.129 (- 0.007) ▼
11. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 91.795 (- 0.824)
12. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 89.755 (- 0.507)
13. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 88.519 (- 0.102)
14. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 77.567 (- 0.354)
15. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 73.955 (- 1.425)
16. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 72.637 (- 1.310)
17. DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 70.870 (+ 0.862) ▲
18. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 70.358 (- 1.500) ▼
19. FUN. – Carry On: 67.364 (+ 0.155)
20. LEE BRICE – I Drive Your Truck: 64.605 (- 0.113)

OTHERS:

PINK – Try: 63.336 (- 0.454)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 62.575 (- 0.033)
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 55.332 (+ 1.183)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can't Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 50.672 (+ 3.224)
KREWELLA – Alive: 50.211 (+ 0.909)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 48.380 (- 0.011)
MUSE – Madness: 42.717 (+ 0.487)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 42.319 (+ 3.049)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 41.959 (+ 0.508)
EMELI SANDE – Next To Me: 38.495 (+ 0.880)
ICONA POP – I Love It f/Charli XCX: 36.088 (+ 0.924)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 34.134 (+ 0.437)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 33.831 (+ 0.849)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Cruise f/Nelly: 33.122
TIM MCGRAW WITH TAYLOR SWIFT – Highway Don't Care: 32.916
CHRIS BROWN – Fine China: 30.160 (+ 4.454)
JUSTIN BIEBER – All Around The World: 28.397 (+ 0.337)
WILL.I.AM F/JUSTIN BIEBER – #thatpower: 22.205 (+ 2.224)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 17.516 (+ 0.623)
BLAKE SHELTON – Boys 'Round Here: 17.232 (+ 1.106)
ARIANA GRANDE – The Way f/Mac Miller: 8.862 (+ 1.275)
THIRTY SECONDS TO MARS – Up In The Air: 8.398 (+ 0.231)
CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 6.314 (+ 0.640)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 1.256
KELLY CLARKSON – People Like Us: 1.037
SELENA GOMEZ – Come & Get It: 0.655

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Apr 6, 2013 22:10:55 GMT -5 josh said:

The difference in Mediabase airplay of the two right now is almost 60 million AI. By Wednesday it will be over 70 million, most likely.

Last Wednesday Thrift Shop was 108 BDS, 143 Mediabase. WIWYM was 142 BDS, 191 Mediabase. The difference was 34 BDS, 48 Mediabase. The BDS airplay was ~75% of Mediabase in these numbers.

75% of 60 is 45. Therefore he should be correct.

Thanks for confirming! Based on today's radio airplay update, the AI difference could be more than 50 million by the end of Tuesday, which will give WIWYM an even greater advantage. TS is losing airplay at a very fast clip, unlike its' sales and streaming numbers. It could be one of those records that is very polarizing.

[NeRD]

Apr 6, 2013 17:12:52 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

It would be a pity if "Stay" was denied the no. 1 spot because of the record label's strategy to boost sales. It is to my mind the strongest of the three ballads in the top 5 (I like all three). Not sure what is gained by keeping the song off the on-demand services.

Some could argue that its single sales have benefited, and Unapologetic's sales have benefited from it not being on Spotify.

[lugus15]

I do think that WYWYM will be able to do it!!!

It has keeped it's lead on itunes all week, plus the airplay difference.

[Rocky]

7. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 107.952 (+ 1.734)
This will keep at either #4 or (more likely) #5 on Airplay.

Thrilled and positively surprised how high "Mirrors" and "Can't Hold Us" already are. Just keep slaying! :'( C'mon "Heart Attack"!

[KappaSquid]

I hope Cant Hold Us replaces Thrift Shop for #1 in the next couple of weeks, I don't want the same overrated artists getting #1

[Deleted]

Bruno's song will be the next #1 after "Thrift Shop." CHU isn't close enough in airplay to challenge for the top yet.

[KappaSquid]

I know, It sucks, The song isnt catchy at all and its depressing as hell unlike Cant Hold Us which has me dancing the whole time...

[Deleted]

A song doesn't need to be catchy to be good... Especially not a piano ballad.

[KappaSquid]

for it to be #1 on the Hot 100 and Airplay i think song would have to be catchy, im sorry im not familiar with piano ballads( i guess none of them are catchy or something...) ... i never claimed that a song has to be catchy in order to be good, will you show me where i said that?

[KappaSquid]

Also CHU is rising in airlplay really quick, if Thrift Shop can block Bruno for a like 2 weeks i think it has a shot