Billboard Hot 100: 06/01/2013

[jebsib]

If you look at the Hot Digital Track charts from 2003 and 2004, there was a lot of Hot AC;

The theory goes that the the early iTunes adopters were mainly hipster Apple kids who were very big on acts like John Mayer, Fountains of Wayne, Sarah Mclaughlin, etc.

Thus, the Hot 100 would have looked radically different.

[Au$tin]

Looks like we could have a posthumous top ten debut on the 6/9 chart. How often does that happen?

[HolidayGuy]

How would some random person know if streams were attributed to another act? It hasn't been reported anywhere. EDIT: Not true, per Billboard.

I don't recall hearing about this Zach Sobiech- but, the sales would have to be very high for a top 10 debut to happen.

[josh]

May 21, 2013 17:07:09 GMT -5 jebsib said:

If you look at the Hot Digital Track charts from 2003 and 2004, there was a lot of Hot AC;

The theory goes that the the early iTunes adopters were mainly hipster Apple kids who were very big on acts like John Mayer, Fountains of Wayne, Sarah Mclaughlin, etc.

Thus, the Hot 100 would have looked radically different.

But if digital sales were significantly bigger, you can't just assume that one demographic would stay so large. If digital sales were significantly larger, it would be a lot more of the general public, and the big radio songs would have gotten big boosts. That's not to say Hot AC type songs would flop, but they wouldn't have such a large number, relatively speaking.

[jebsib]

^ Well that's certainly true. I was assuming based on the titles relative popularity at the time. Strange that certain genres are never big digital sellers, though.

[Agent Yoncé]

'03 Flashback :'( The memories :'(

[Deleted]

May 21, 2013 17:21:16 GMT -5 josh said:

May 21, 2013 17:07:09 GMT -5 jebsib said:

If you look at the Hot Digital Track charts from 2003 and 2004, there was a lot of Hot AC;

The theory goes that the the early iTunes adopters were mainly hipster Apple kids who were very big on acts like John Mayer, Fountains of Wayne, Sarah Mclaughlin, etc.

Thus, the Hot 100 would have looked radically different.

But if digital sales were significantly bigger, you can't just assume that one demographic would stay so large. If digital sales were significantly larger, it would be a lot more of the general public, and the big radio songs would have gotten big boosts. That's not to say Hot AC type songs would flop, but they wouldn't have such a large number, relatively speaking.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if early adopters to any technological trend more or less prefer less mainstream fare than the general public on average (or if they do prefer something mainstream, they were on to it before it caught on with the general public). Anyway, I was assuming the 'what if' scenario was more 'what if digital downloads were as commonplace back then as they are now?' And that is something I've seen pondered quite a few times, with the conclusion invariably being that the big hits of the day ("Foolish," "Yeah!", SUBG, etc.) would have sold as well as the monster airplay hits now typically do. But if we go with jebsib's POV the question is more 'what would the Hot 100 have looked like if Billboard had started including digital sales - as they were at the time - much earlier?' The sales were so small (relatively speaking) and so reflective of a specific niche that they either would have had no effect, or they would have been too heavily weighted and the Hot 100 would have reflected a different kind of inaccuracy.

But it kind of points to the futility of 'what ifs' I guess b/c it's not like we can go back and see for sure how things might have panned out. Say for example that physical singles had not been phased out until digital took off, or there was some overlap between the two, and labels discovered that certain demographics preferred physical and others preferred digital. Would they have kept both up, or discontinued whichever one was pulling in less profit? Would they have continued the strategy of withholding certain singles from being available for download in an effort to boost album sales? Would repression still be a thing? maxi-singles and EPs have become the 'it' thing to release? Would the relatively decent performance of urban singles in the physical format have carried over to the digital format with less (or no) gap in time between the availability of the two? There's just no way of knowing.

[jebsib]

^ AWG, great analysis. "What Ifs" are always futile, but fun exercises nevertheless.

[heavensider]

where's today's update and the chart watch??

[Kworb]

Billboard Radio Songs estimates

Mirrors 142
JGMAR 137
Can't Hold Us 122
Stay 120
WIWYM 91
Heart Attack 76
I Love It 75
Feel This Moment 61

[crystalphnx]

Hot Digital Songs Update:

On the Digital Songs chart, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Can't Hold Us" is still tops, selling another 231,000 downloads (down 4%). Charging fast right behind is Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines," featuring T.I. & Pharrell, which vaults 23-2 with 206,000 (up 204%). Last week, the song was performed on NBC's "The Voice" (May 14) and "The Ellen DeGeneres Show" (May 16).

P!nk's "Just Give Me a Reason," featuring Nate Ruess, slips 2-3 with 193,000 (down 16%); Florida Georgia Line's "Cruise" holds at No. 4 with 189,000 (up 25%); and Selena Gomez's "Come & Get It" climbs 6-5 with 164,000 (up 15%).

Falling 3-6 is Timberlake's "Mirrors" with 156,000 (down 7%), while Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" is steady at No. 7 with 141,000 (up less than 1%). Also standing still is Icona Pop's "I Love It," featuring Charli XCX, though it's up by less than 1%. Jumping 19-9 is Lana Del Rey's "Young and Beautiful" with 121,000 (up 57%), thanks to exposure gleaned from its use in the film "The Great Gatsby" and on its soundtrack.

Completing the top 10 is Daft Punk's "Get Lucky," featuring Pharrell Williams, which rises 17-10 with 118,000 (up 45%).

Digital track sales this past week totaled 24.4 million downloads, up 1% compared with last week (24.3 million) and down 2% stacked next to the comparable week of 2012 (25 million). Year-to-date track sales are at 531.2 million, down 3% compared with the same total at this point last year (545.3 million).

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/chart-alert/1563131/vampire-weekend-debuts-at-no-1-on-billboard-200

[Deleted]

Also standing still is Icona Pop's "I Love It," featuring Charli XCX, though it's up by less than 1%.

ok but where is it? (yes I realize it's #8 but the article doesn't say it)

[Au$tin]

May 22, 2013 9:36:09 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Jumping 19-9 is Lana Del Rey's "Young and Beautiful" with 121,000 (up 57%), thanks to exposure gleaned from its use in the film "The Great Gatsby" and on its soundtrack.

What an interesting word choice.

[allow that]

May 21, 2013 17:07:09 GMT -5 jebsib said:

The theory goes that the the early iTunes adopters were mainly hipster Apple kids who were very big on acts like John Mayer, Fountains of Wayne, Sarah Mclaughlin, etc.

That's what hipsters listened to? Come on man you're killing me here!! Those acts you described are pretty much the epitome of preppy listening a decade back; dudebro's and field hockey chicks is what you've got there.

[popstop]

May 22, 2013 9:53:25 GMT -5 Codex said:

Also standing still is Icona Pop's "I Love It," featuring Charli XCX, though it's up by less than 1%.

ok but where is it? (yes I realize it's #8 but the article doesn't say it)

haha! #8.

[Au$tin]

May 22, 2013 10:24:16 GMT -5 allow that said:

May 21, 2013 17:07:09 GMT -5 jebsib said:

The theory goes that the the early iTunes adopters were mainly hipster Apple kids who were very big on acts like John Mayer, Fountains of Wayne, Sarah Mclaughlin, etc.

That's what hipsters listened to? Come on man you're killing me here!! Those acts you described are pretty much the epitome of preppy listening a decade back; dudebro's and field hockey chicks is what you've got there.

I don't think they were "hipsters," but more like "wannabe hipsters." You know, the type that loves to put things on a higher pedestal because they think it's "cool" and what they're doing is much more "sophisticated."

Like Lana Del Rey. I did not say that.

[bat1990]

I remember "I Believe In a Thing Called Love" being in the Top 10 of Hot Digital Songs for a while in 2003. I imagine that would've actually charted on the Hot 100 with a sales component.

[Linnethia Monique]

Charging fast right behind is Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines," featuring T.I. & Pharrell, which vaults 23-2 with 206,000 (up 204%).

HOLY SH!T. This could possibly be Top 10 because he should have a lot of streaming points.

[RadioBeatz]

Ugh, I don't like "Blurred Lines" that much, but you gotta admit Robin Thicke is hot. I suspect it will be a big hit on pop radio.

I feel like "Suit & Tie" opened a pandora box.

[crystalphnx]

May 22, 2013 11:39:02 GMT -5 RadioBeatz said:

Ugh, I don't like "Blurred Lines" that much, but you gotta admit Robin Thicke is hot. I suspect it will be a big hit on pop radio.

I feel like "Suit & Tie" opened a pandora box.

I cringe at the thought of JT taking credit for helping every R&B-flavored song that becomes a hit this year ("Blurred Lines", "The Way", etc.).

as others have pointed out in past threads, US radio has gradually been embracing songs outside the dance bubble for a while now (Adele's singles, fun.'s singles, "Somebody That I Used To Know", the recent string of slow radio smashes ["When I Was Your Man", "Stay", "Just Give Me A Reason"], etc.). I don't think any one artist should take credit for US radio (namely Pop radio) embracing non-dance singles.

I might be a little biased, though...since I think "Blurred Lines" and "The Way" are both infinitely better than S&T.  

[Enigma.]

Blurred Lines is much more inspiring than S&T though, imo

[SPRΞΞ]

Completing the top 10 is Daft Punk's "Get Lucky," featuring Pharrell Williams, which rises 17-10 with 118,000 (up 45%).

coming for that Hot 100 Top 10!

[Deleted]

May 21, 2013 17:17:10 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Looks like we could have a posthumous top ten debut on the 6/9 chart. How often does that happen?

[Deleted]

May 21, 2013 17:17:10 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Looks like we could have a posthumous top ten debut on the 6/9 chart. How often does that happen?

Top 10 debuts in general is a post 1991 phenomenon



Pre 1991 artists like Janis Joplin, John Lennon, Jim Croce etc all hit big after death


Examples of hits in recent years that went top 10 or number one were from Whitney Houston and Static Major

[Au$tin]

Whoops! That was bad wording. Thanks for the info, but I meant how often does an artist see their first chart hit posthumously?

[Deleted]

Static Major

[jebsib]

I am amazed at the r&b throwback movement apparently started by Suit & Tie (Straight out of 1977, samples a 1973 soul song).

Currently there is "Get Lucky" (1979 Chic sound), "Treasure" (Even has the Disco sound effects), "Fine China" (very early 80s Michael Jackson influence), "Blurred Lines" (not certain, but sounds retro).

Songs like these take a a while to green-light / produce; This almost seems orchestrated as opposed to the normal 6 month lag time to adjust to a new sound.

Was there some Industry conference last year where it was mandated that r&b move in this direction?!?!?

[HolidayGuy]

It wasn't Static's passing, though, that sparked the chart boom, correct? Just an aside, though- a posthumous hit is a posthumous hit.

[Deleted]

Had the "Whitney Rule" been in effect in earlier years,

Jeff Buckley and Israel Kamakawiwoʻole would have had hits too

[RadioBeatz]

May 22, 2013 11:50:15 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Blurred Lines is much more inspiring than S&T though, imo

What? How is "Blurred Lines" more inspiring than "Suit & Tie"? Have you looked at its cliched, cringe-worthy lyrics? the song is very mediocre IMO but I guess it has a nice beat and that R&B/retro feel.

Anyway his highest peaking single "Lost Without U" peaked at #14 and this will left that in the dust probably today. I suppose it has good streaming?