Billboard Hot 100 : 10/5/2013

[Xedretinz Lododnz]

Sept 23, 2013 0:39:24 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Wrecking Ball

Sales: 295k / 12 = 24583
Airplay: 34000M / 7,500 = 4533
Streaming: 15M / 450 = 33333
>> Points: 62449

Roar

Sales: 300k / 12 = 25000
Airplay: 159400M / 7,500 = 21253
Streaming: 6.5M / 450 = 14444
>> Points: 60697


"Wrecking Ball" should remain at the top spot if it sold at least 275k.

Roar could sell more than Wrecking ball by atleast 30k.... maybe 315K for Roar and 275k for Wrecking Ball..
and another thing, i think katy's airplay will be around 165-170million..... I agree with the streaming...

let say it looks like this....

WRECKING BALL
Sales: 275K/12 = 22917
Airplay: 34M/7500 = 4533
Streaming: 15M/450 = 33333

Overall points: 60783

ROAR
Sales: 315K/12 = 26250
Airplay: 168M/7500 = 22400
Streaming: 6.5M/450 = 14444

Overall points: 63094

Roar will have a chance this week.... But let see  :|

[Rocky]

Sept 23, 2013 1:56:55 GMT -5 Xedretinz Lododnz said:

i think katy's airplay will be around 165-170million.....

Cutiepie, how will Katy's airplay be 170 or even 165 million? That's around 209-215M AI on Mediabase. You expect her to get 11-17M AI in 3 days when it's peaking? Won't happen.

But yeah it all depends on sales.

[Rocky]

1. KATY PERRY – Roar: 199.956 (+ 2.199) ▲
2. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 199.011 (- 3.848) ▼
3. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 153.808 (+ 0.782)
4. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 148.013 (+ 0.170)
5. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 126.755 (+ 2.789)
6. LORDE – Royals: 119.732 (+ 2.340)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 118.476 (+ 1.434)
8. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 116.509 (+ 2.060)
9. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 99.523 (- 1.377)
10. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 93.980 (- 2.516)
11. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 87.671 (- 1.595)
12. LADY GAGA – Applause: 87.266 (+ 3.100) ▲
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 83.836 (- 0.429) ▼
14. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 78.231 (- 1.703)
15.J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 74.997 (- 0.302)
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 73.033 (- 1.274)
17. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 72.185 (- 2.114)
18. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 71.443 (- 1.455)
19. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 70.399 (- 2.426)
20. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 67.725 (- 0.051)

JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 65.716 (+ 0.778)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 61.823 (- 1.091)
BILLY CURRINGTON – Hey Girl: 60.870 (+ 0.386)
TYLER FARR – Redneck Crazy: 57.595 (+ 0.159)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 56.562 (+ 0.158)
THOMAS RHETT – It Goes Like This: 55.474 (+ 0.229)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 49.686 (+ 0.491)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 47.875 (+ 0.714)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 45.504 (+ 0.281)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 41.960 (+ 0.112)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 40.708 (+ 1.021)
BLAKE SHELTON – Mine Would Be You: 40.665 (+ 0.817)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 39.432 (+ 3.288)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 38.535 (+ 0.120)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 36.662 (+ 3.058)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 32.036 (- 2.153)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 30.341 (+ 0.683)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 29.270 (+ 1.386)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 22.983 (+ 0.153)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 19.568 (+ 0.754)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 19.127 (+ 0.320)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 15.677 (+ 0.290)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 9.892 (+ 0.545)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 9.822 (+ 0.321)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 5.000 (+ 1.412)
RIHANNA – What Now: 4.205 (+ 0.572)
KILLERS – Shot At The Night: 1.940 (+ 0.247)
YLVIS – The Fox: 0.362

Katy #1 already
"Applause" slaying yo faves with another 3M update (2nd biggest), "Demons" is starting well. 

[Push The Button]

"Applause" will be her biggest Mediabase hit in terms of audience. I believe her previous high was 120 million for "Poker Face?"

[Rocky]

Sept 23, 2013 10:49:34 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

"Applause" will be her biggest Mediabase hit in terms of audience. I believe her previous high was 120 million for "Poker Face?"

"Bad Romance" and 119M

1. Bad Romance: 118.946M
2. Poker Face: 117.042M
3. Born This Way: 109.827M
4. The Edge Of Glory: 106.169M
5. Paparazzi: 104.897M
6. Just Dance: 104.084M
7.Telephone (feat. Beyoncé): 92.780M
8. LoveGame: 88.868M
9. Applause: 87.266
10. Alejandro: 81.988M
11. Yoü And I: 65.121M
12. Judas 36.919M
13. Marry The Night: 35.648M

"Applause" will move to around 92-93M AI in two days so might pass "Telephone" with the Wednesday update.

[Kris]

Quite surprised @ Tegan and Sara, Closer was a hit here in Canada months ago.

[Push The Button]

Sept 23, 2013 10:57:43 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Sept 23, 2013 10:49:34 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

"Applause" will be her biggest Mediabase hit in terms of audience. I believe her previous high was 120 million for "Poker Face?"

"Bad Romance" and 119M

1. Bad Romance: 118.946M
2. Poker Face: 117.042M
3. Born This Way: 109.827M
4. The Edge Of Glory: 106.169M
5. Paparazzi: 104.897M
6. Just Dance: 104.084M
7.Telephone (feat. Beyoncé): 92.780M
8. LoveGame: 88.868M
9. Applause: 87.266
10. Alejandro: 81.988M
11. Yoü And I: 65.121M
12. Judas 36.919M
13. Marry The Night: 35.648M

"Applause" will move to around 92-93M AI in two days so might pass "Telephone" with the Wednesday update.

Ah, yes. I knew it was close.

[badrobot]

It would be nice if we could "scale for inflation" all these Mediabase numbers. Their frequent recalibrations make it hard to compare even a couple years apart. I feel like BDS has been a little more consistent (or am I crazy)?

A few years ago there was a time where I think the Mediabase #1 occasionally had less than 100m.

[HolidayGuy]

The Mediabase discrepancies have been larger. With BDS, there is the caveat of December 1998-present, as that's when Hot 100 Airplay audience peaks would be highest, as result of the inclusion of all formats. But, even with BDS, there have been stations added since that happened, which makes some comparisons a little unfair.

[Rocky]

Spotify Top 10 - week ending September 22

1. Wrecking Ball - 2,392,000 (=)
2. Royals - 2,139,000 (=)
3. Wake Me Up - 1,912,000 (=)
4. Hold On, We're Going Home - 1,777,000 (+1)
5. Roar - 1,718,000 (-1)
6. Holy Grail - 1,388,000 (=)
7. Applause - 1,149,000 (=)
8. Blurred Lines - 1,046,000 (=)
9. We Can't Stop - 1,028,000 (=)
10. Radioactive - 1,003,000 (=)

My flop top 10 Prediction

01. "Wrecking Ball" - 305,000+36M+14M --> 61,373
02. "Roar" - 299,000+161M+6M --> 59,727
03. "Royals" - 300,000+98,5M+5,25M --> 49,807
04. "Blurred Lines" - 106,000+152M+4,6M --> 39,332
05. "Wake Me Up" - 202,000+96M+4,4M --> 39,245
06. "Hold On, We're Going Home" - 148,000+122,5M+2,9M --> 35,126
07. "Holy Grail" - 133,000+104M+3,6M --> 32,987
08. "Applause" - 160,000+73M+3,9M --> 31,770
09. "Summertime Sadness" - 107,000+96M+3,25M --> 28,937
10. "Berzerk" - 145,000+31M+3,3M --> 23,524

~ "Dark Horse" - 203,000/12 - 16,917 points just from sales. It should debut between #11-15 without streaming and airplay points.
~ "Work Bitch" - 171,000/12 - 14,250 points. idk but top 20.

The race for the #1 will be close, extremely close for #4-5, #7-8.

[brucelover]

"Applause" sounded like a hit when I first heard it, very catchy and bouncy production, but the lyrics are obviously the obstacle....I think its resurgence is a combination of it being a legitimately fun, enjoyable pop song and some payola. I don't think it will go as high as the 130m-140m threshold for big hits that seems to be the norm nowadays though.

[chartfreak]

Oh, the P word has been brought up. Lol

[imbondz]

Sept 23, 2013 15:17:34 GMT -5 brucelover said:

"Applause" sounded like a hit when I first heard it, very catchy and bouncy production, but the lyrics are obviously the obstacle....I think its resurgence is a combination of it being a legitimately fun, enjoyable pop song and some payola. I don't think it will go as high as the 130m-140m threshold for big hits that seems to be the norm nowadays though.

Exxxxxactly

[Rocky]

Sept 23, 2013 15:17:34 GMT -5 brucelover said:

"Applause" sounded like a hit when I first heard it, very catchy and bouncy production, but the lyrics are obviously the obstacle....I think its resurgence is a combination of it being a legitimately fun, enjoyable pop song and some payola. I don't think it will go as high as the 130m-140m threshold for big hits that seems to be the norm nowadays though.

By the way (going by that theory) wouldn't it make sense to use it from the start?  ???

[Duca]

1. KATY PERRY – Roar: 201.530 (+1.574)
2. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 194.237 (-4.774)
3. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 155.658 (+1.850)
4. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 147.555 (-0.458)
5. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 131.076 (+4.321)
6. LORDE – Royals: 122.385 (+2.653)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 120.076 (+1.600)
8. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 119.037 (+2.528)
9. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 97.281 (-2.242)
10. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 91.687 (-2.293)
11. LADY GAGA – Applause: 90.605 (+3.339) ▲
12. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 85.665 (-2.006) ▼
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 83.532 (-0.304)
14. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 76.297 (-1.934)
15.J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 74.835 (-0.162)
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 72.690 (-0.343)
17. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 69.808 (-2.377)
18. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 69.783 (-1.660)
19. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 68.953 (-1.446)
20. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 68.053 (+0.328)

JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 65.982 (+0.266)
BILLY CURRINGTON – Hey Girl: 61.270 (+0.400)
TYLER FARR – Redneck Crazy: 58.347 (+0.752)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 57.429 (+0.867)
THOMAS RHETT – It Goes Like This: 56.367 (+0.893)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 50.163 (+0.477)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 49.280 (+1.405)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 46.696 (+1.192)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 43.204 (+3.772)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 42.380 (+0.420)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 41.787 (+1.079)
BLAKE SHELTON – Mine Would Be You: 40.665 (+0.817)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 39.040 (+2.378)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 38.826 (+0.291)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 30.712 (+0.371)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 30.372 (+1.102)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 24.827 (-7.209)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 23.661 (+0.678)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 20.057 (+0.489)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 19.652 (+0.525)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 16.034 (+0.357)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 10.958 (+1.066)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 10.154 (+0.332)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 6.409 (+1.409)
RIHANNA – What Now: 4.351 (+0.146)
ARCADE FIRE – Reflektor: 3.134
ZEDD – Stay The Night f/H. Williams: 2.996
KILLERS – Shot At The Night: 1.921 (-0.019)
ZENDAYA – Replay: 0.211

[Rocky]

5. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 131.076 (+4.321)

Holy. Freaking. Jesus! Draaaaake. This is so going #1 on Airplay and top 3 on Hot 100. Go call the Gu-vah-nah.

[JamaicaFunk²]

Sept 24, 2013 6:43:06 GMT -5 Rocky said:

5. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 131.076 (+4.321)

Holy. Freaking. Jesus! Draaaaake. This is so going #1 on Airplay and top 3 on Hot 100. Go call the Gu-vah-nah.

I think he had some sort of airplay deal last night. I think iheartradio stations did an album preview at 9pm

[HolidayGuy]

^The track's been seeing pretty big gains, though, for some time. So, if it was some kind of airplay promo., it wasn't that dramatic.

[Glove Slap]

Keep going Aubrey!

Edit: My b on the name mistake .

[HolidayGuy]

OK, who's Audrey? Among the biggest gainers, I don't see off-hand who that would be.

[Caviar]

Drake.

[HolidayGuy]

Ah ha- his name is Aubrey- Audrey usually being a female name threw me and all. ;)

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Drake's real name is Audrey?!

[HolidayGuy]

^Close- Aubrey. Drake is his middle name.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Sept 23, 2013 15:17:34 GMT -5 brucelover said:

"Applause" sounded like a hit when I first heard it, very catchy and bouncy production, but the lyrics are obviously the obstacle....I think its resurgence is a combination of it being a legitimately fun, enjoyable pop song and some payola. I don't think it will go as high as the 130m-140m threshold for big hits that seems to be the norm nowadays though.

I've been saying this for a couple of weeks - the Kia commercial has definitely helped Applause in terms of call-out scores and reducing the initial resistance/lackluster welcome to the song. The commercial is fun and Applause works perfectly with it. This was perhaps the best marketing Ga did for ARTPOP. It's great that radio has come on board in a big way.

[Au$tin]

The Kia commercial definitely did it for me. It got to a point where I was bopping along to the song whenever the commercial came on, and now I like it.

[when the pawn...]

Sept 23, 2013 15:17:34 GMT -5 brucelover said:

"Applause" sounded like a hit when I first heard it, very catchy and bouncy production, but the lyrics are obviously the obstacle....I think its resurgence is a combination of it being a legitimately fun, enjoyable pop song and some payola. I don't think it will go as high as the 130m-140m threshold for big hits that seems to be the norm nowadays though.

I might agree with you on the payola if it weren't for the consistent sales on iTunes and streaming numbers on Spotify.

[Deleted]

Top 10 flashbacks for this week

1 year ago (10/6/12)

1 1 One More Night - Maroon 5 (2nd week of 9 @ #1)
2 11 Gangnam Style - Psy
3 3 Some Nights - fun.
4 2 We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together - Taylor Swift
5 5 Blow Me (One Last Kiss) - P!nk
6 4 Whistle - Flo Rida
7 6 As Long As You Love Me - Justin Bieber ft. Big Sean
8 9 Good Time - Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen
9 8 Too Close - Alex Clare
10 7 Lights - Ellie Goulding


5 years ago (10/4/08)

1 2 Whatever You Like - T.I. (4th week of 7 @ #1)
2 1 So What - P!nk
3 - Love Lockdown - Kanye West
4 3 Disturbia - Rihanna
5 16 Love Story - Taylor Swift
6 4 Paper Planes - M.I.A.
7 7 Closer - Ne-Yo
8 8 Can't Believe It - T-Pain ft. Lil Wayne
9 12 Hot N Cold - Katy Perry
10 9 American Boy - Estelle ft. Kanye West


10 years ago (10/4/03)

1 2 Baby Boy - Beyonce ft. Sean Paul (1st week of 9 @ #1)
2 1 Shake Ya Tailfeather - Nelly, P Diddy & Murphy Lee
3 3 Right Thurr - Chingy
4 4 Get Low - Lil Jon & The East Side Boyz ft. Ying Yang Twins
5 7 Frontin' - Pharrell ft. Jay-Z
6 5 Into You - Fabolous ft. Tamia or Ashanti
7 6 P.I.M.P. - 50 Cent
8 9 Where Is The Love? - Black Eyed Peas
9 11 Damn! - Youngbloodz ft. Lil Jon
10 10 Unwell - Matchbox 20


15 years ago (10/3/98)

1 2 The First Night - Monica (1st week of 5 @ #1)
2 1 I Don't Want To Miss A Thing - Aerosmith
3 - One Week - Barenaked Ladies
4 3 Crush - Jennifer Paige
5 7 I'll Be - Edwin McCain
6 4 My Way - Usher
7 6 Time After Time - Inoj
8 5 The Boy Is Mine - Brandy & Monica
9 8 Daydreamin' - Tatyana Ali
10 11 When The Lights Go Out - Five


Hot 100 Airplay from 15 years ago

1 2 I Don't Want To Miss A Thing - Aerosmith (1st and only week @ #1)
2 1 Iris - Goo Goo Dolls
3 3 One Week - Barenaked Ladies
4 4 I'll Never Break Your Heart - Backstreet Boys
5 8 Are You That Somebody? - Aaliyah

[Caviar]

Ten years ago was absolutely abysmal.

[popstop]

Wait, so Iris' 18-week #1 run was interrupted?? It was in the top 2 for at least 20 weeks then.

I heard it on the radio this weekend, and it seemed so run of the mill. I don't get why that song was such a beast.