Billboard Hot 100: 12/14/2013

[ss8]

so even if Miley goes back to #1 will it most likely just be for one week? THEN the The Monster will finally go #1 as I'm assuming the video will be out mixed in w/ what I assume will still be strong airplay and good enough sales.

[icefire9]

Dec 1, 2013 10:34:51 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Top 10 12/14/13 Prediction
1.Wrecking Ball(by not to many points)
2.The Monster(So close)
3.Royals(By a small margin)
4.Timber
5.Counting Stars
6.Demons
7.Wake Me Up
8.Story Of My Life
9.Roar
10.Say Something/Let Her Go
15.Unconditionally/Do What You Want

Unless Do What U Want has loads of streaming, Unconditionally will be above it since it has more airplay and is higher on iTunes. I'm pretty sure Story of My Life won't be top 10 either, it doesn't have enough airplay.

[RainMan94]

I think Billboard would have had an article about the possibility of Wrecking Ball returning to No. 1 since it's such a rare occurrence even with streaming. I know the record was broken earlier this year for longest break between number 1 visits in one chart run, but I think most speculated that Harlem Shake would have lost steam before Thrift Shop did and thus would have been a matter of time before the latter returned to the top. This viral video pretty much came out of nowhere, and thus was sort of a shock when determining which song would be number 1 this week.

[3m3r7c]

It amazes me that Demons can fly up SK fast while radioactive has still yet to let go.

Do we think Pompeii is done its airplay gains or could it pick up again in January?

[Verisimilitude]

Dec 1, 2013 11:37:58 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

It amazes me that Demons can fly up SK fast while radioactive has still yet to let go.

Do we think Pompeii is done its airplay gains or could it pick up again in January?

That song definitely screams slow burner. It's even catchier than "Pumped Up Kicks" which took forever to catch on too (like "Sweater Weather" is now).

[jayhawk1117]

Dec 1, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Dec 1, 2013 10:34:51 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Top 10 12/14/13 Prediction
1.Wrecking Ball(by not to many points)
2.The Monster(So close)
3.Royals(By a small margin)
4.Timber
5.Counting Stars
6.Demons
7.Wake Me Up
8.Story Of My Life
9.Roar
10.Say Something/Let Her Go
15.Unconditionally/Do What You Want

Unless Do What U Want has loads of streaming, Unconditionally will be above it since it has more airplay and is higher on iTunes. I'm pretty sure Story of My Life won't be top 10 either, it doesn't have enough airplay.

IM almost sure it will go back into the top ten considering its at 13 with lower sales then what it has now. Even if it doesnt make it to 8, it will go back into the top ten.

[Rocky]

Dec 1, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Dec 1, 2013 10:34:51 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Top 10 12/14/13 Prediction
1.Wrecking Ball(by not to many points)
2.The Monster(So close)
3.Royals(By a small margin)
4.Timber
5.Counting Stars
6.Demons
7.Wake Me Up
8.Story Of My Life
9.Roar
10.Say Something/Let Her Go
15.Unconditionally/Do What You Want

Unless Do What U Want has loads of streaming, Unconditionally will be above it since it has more airplay and is higher on iTunes. I'm pretty sure Story of My Life won't be top 10 either, it doesn't have enough airplay.

Surprisingly, "Do What U Want" has another version in the 200s that puts it at #13 with ~0.3108, above "Unconditionally". Even the main version was above "Uncle" for half of the week.
I agree that it's nothing significant and it also has a video + more airplay so Katy will obviously be higher on Hot 100.

[ss8]

Dec 1, 2013 11:32:40 GMT -5 RainMan94 said:

I think Billboard would have had an article about the possibility of Wrecking Ball returning to No. 1 since it's such a rare occurrence even with streaming. I know the record was broken earlier this year for longest break between number 1 visits in one chart run, but I think most speculated that Harlem Shake would have lost steam before Thrift Shop did and thus would have been a matter of time before the latter returned to the top. This viral video pretty much came out of nowhere, and thus was sort of a shock when determining which song would be number 1 this week.

Good point tho its only Sun. Thing is, don't know if they would even post that kind of an article today. Could be too soon or it may be coming in the next few days? I would think if by Tuesday it isn't mentioned as a 'possibility' etc., doesn't mean it won't happen, but it's def. very noteworthy and the lack of even a mention of it possibly means they already know Miley won't return to #1. 

[ss8]

I don't tweet etc..but would love someone here who does to tweet one of the main chart people at BB and ask about the likelihood of WB going back to #1. :)

[Wrecking Ball]

Dec 1, 2013 12:21:36 GMT -5 ss8 said:

I don't tweet etc..but would love someone here who does to tweet one of the main chart people at BB and ask about the likelihood of WB going back to #1. :)

Well someone asked Keith early this week if the video would count towards streaming and he said yes

[jma]

Nov 30, 2013 20:17:14 GMT -5 RadioBeatz said:

What about DHT's cover of "Listen To Your Heart"? #1 on Pop back in 2005, the original version was the dance one not the ballad.

"We Found Love" has Calvin Harris as feature and then there's David Guetta/Usher "Without You", so I guess they were the first EDM acts to hit #1 altough "Wake Me Up!" could be the first truly EDM song to hit #1 on Top 40.

This song is nostalgic...grade 12 haha

[mluv]

I'd be surprised if Miley is #1 even with the streaming especially as they only count US views. It all depends on how everything is weighted but I assume Monster will be #1

[josh]

Dec 1, 2013 12:08:26 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Dec 1, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Unless Do What U Want has loads of streaming, Unconditionally will be above it since it has more airplay and is higher on iTunes. I'm pretty sure Story of My Life won't be top 10 either, it doesn't have enough airplay.

Surprisingly, "Do What U Want" has another version in the 200s that puts it at #13 with ~0.3108, above "Unconditionally". Even the main version was above "Uncle" for half of the week.
I agree that it's nothing significant and it also has a video + more airplay so Katy will obviously be higher on Hot 100.

From UKMix:

Streaming Songs
27 32 2 Do What U Want Lady Gaga Featuring R. Kelly
35 New 1 Unconditionally Katy Perry

DWUW has the edge even without a video.

[surreallife]

Dec 1, 2013 14:05:18 GMT -5 mluv said:

I'd be surprised if Miley is #1 even with the streaming especially as they only count US views. It all depends on how everything is weighted but I assume Monster will be #1

Billboard decreased the weighting that streaming receives, starting with the 2014 chart year (December 7th chart). That change could prevent "Wrecking Ball" from rebounding back to #1.

[HolidayGuy]

^Did it make mention of that in the publication?

[badrobot]

Dec 1, 2013 15:28:33 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Dec 1, 2013 14:05:18 GMT -5 mluv said:

I'd be surprised if Miley is #1 even with the streaming especially as they only count US views. It all depends on how everything is weighted but I assume Monster will be #1

Billboard decreased the weighting that streaming receives, starting with the 2014 chart year (December 7th chart). That change could prevent "Wrecking Ball" from rebounding back to #1.

I thought they might have done that. Only Time re-entered much lower than expected compared to Bon Jovi.

[HolidayGuy]

"Only Time" had 4.2 million streams vs. 5.1m for "Livin' on a Prayer"; plus, the latter probably had higher sales and potentially airplay.

[ss8]

Wow, wasn't aware of all that new info esp. that BB is putting less emphasis on streaming (ironically starting the same exact week that Miley had a very good shot at going back to #1 lol). If the change occurs this week, that could indeed prevent Miley from returning to #1. Is there an article out there someone could post about the change? The whole 'streaming etc..' thing was very controversial and shady to begin with! Obviously a LOT of people (including many powerful people in the industry) are prob. (if true) what caused BB to do decrease streamings impact on the charts.

[Libra]

Dec 1, 2013 16:21:43 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Wow, wasn't aware of all that new info esp. that BB is putting less emphasis on streaming (ironically starting the same exact week that Miley had a very good shot at going back to #1 lol). If the change occurs this week, that could indeed prevent Miley from returning to #1. Is there an article out there someone could post about the change? The whole 'streaming etc..' thing was very controversial and shady to begin with! Obviously a LOT of people (including many powerful people in the industry) are prob. (if true) what caused BB to do decrease streamings impact on the charts.

It could very well be this recent wave of sudden virals.

[ss8]

so its still going to count but no one knows 'how much' theyre decreasing the points by? I would think quite a bit becuase its just a random person creating a video (not the actual singer and is not the original video or the like) and 1 person who most likely is a loon fan lol shouldnt have that much power to possibly make a song go to #1 or peak higher than deserves. I think 'viral' videos def. should NOT be included at all in the chart calculation- just the original regular video. Ideally, I'd love it to go back to pre 2013 when it was just sales and airplay which is clean cut and 100% fair and square. 

[badrobot]

Dec 1, 2013 16:16:04 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

"Only Time" had 4.2 million streams vs. 5.1m for "Livin' on a Prayer"; plus, the latter probably had higher sales and potentially airplay.

Huh. I thought the Enya commercial had way more views than that.

[HolidayGuy]

^Billboard reported 4.2 million U.S. streams.

[3m3r7c]

Any word on the current percentage of what streaming will be worth now then?

[Wrecking Ball]

With how many views the video has gotten, does it really matter if they've decreased how much streams are weighted?

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2013 16:42:39 GMT -5 ss8 said:

so its still going to count but no one knows 'how much' theyre decreasing the points by? I would think quite a bit becuase its just a random person creating a video (not the actual singer and is not the original video or the like) and 1 person who most likely is a loon fan lol shouldnt have that much power to possibly make a song go to #1 or peak higher than deserves. I think 'viral' videos def. should NOT be included at all in the chart calculation- just the original regular video. Ideally, I'd love it to go back to pre 2013 when it was just sales and airplay which is clean cut and 100% fair and square. 

Well that will never happen. Like it or not, streaming is here to stay.

[jebsib]

Is this official or here-say?

While I appreciate Billboard having a few 'industry secrets', the mysterious non-transparency of the Youtube / streaming element raises serious credibility issues with the Big Chart.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 1, 2013 16:21:43 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Wow, wasn't aware of all that new info esp. that BB is putting less emphasis on streaming (ironically starting the same exact week that Miley had a very good shot at going back to #1 lol). If the change occurs this week, that could indeed prevent Miley from returning to #1. Is there an article out there someone could post about the change? The whole 'streaming etc..' thing was very controversial and shady to begin with! Obviously a LOT of people (including many powerful people in the industry) are prob. (if true) what caused BB to do decrease streamings impact on the charts.

Sorry if a lot of this has been discussed, but this Bon Jovi thing really has me thinking. I have these questions, if anyone has some answers:
1. How much of a song has to be played/used for it to count? Isn't the video with "Livin' On A Prayer" only like 2 minutes?
2. If a video were a medley of songs, would the streams count for both songs?
3. How does BDS/Billboard even know about all user-generated videos that use a song? There are so many out there! Does someone have to submit specific videos? Did Beyonce's camp make BDS aware of the "GMB" one?
4. I would assume there are copyright issues as most of these user-generated videos don't even have permission to use the songs. Does BDS clear things with an artist before counting the stream?

[jenglisbe]

Dec 1, 2013 10:18:09 GMT -5 RadioBeatz said:

and so the Christmas time begins. :) here's hoping AIWFCIY gets top 20 on the Hot 100.

If its streams are solid, it can. Under current chart rules, it would have peaked a lot higher than #21 last year because the streams from the Fallon performance would have counted. It won't get those viral streams this year, but all of its streams will count so that should help it.

[josh]

Dec 1, 2013 20:34:50 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 1, 2013 16:21:43 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Wow, wasn't aware of all that new info esp. that BB is putting less emphasis on streaming (ironically starting the same exact week that Miley had a very good shot at going back to #1 lol). If the change occurs this week, that could indeed prevent Miley from returning to #1. Is there an article out there someone could post about the change? The whole 'streaming etc..' thing was very controversial and shady to begin with! Obviously a LOT of people (including many powerful people in the industry) are prob. (if true) what caused BB to do decrease streamings impact on the charts.

Sorry if a lot of this has been discussed, but this Bon Jovi thing really has me thinking. I have these questions, if anyone has some answers:
1. How much of a song has to be played/used for it to count? Isn't the video with "Livin' On A Prayer" only like 2 minutes?
2. If a video were a medley of songs, would the streams count for both songs?
3. How does BDS/Billboard even know about all user-generated videos that use a song? There are so many out there! Does someone have to submit specific videos? Did Beyonce's camp make BDS aware of the "GMB" one?
4. I would assume there are copyright issues as most of these user-generated videos don't even have permission to use the songs. Does BDS clear things with an artist before counting the stream?

Look at "Harlem Shake:"

1. That was only 30 seconds per video and counted.
2. Not sure.
3. No clue, but they got huge amounts for "Harlem Shake" so they get a lot of them. Who knows if they got them all, though. But no, the video uploader doesn't have to make it known to BDS.
4. Not sure again.

[WotUNeed]

Dec 1, 2013 20:34:50 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

3. How does BDS/Billboard even know about all user-generated videos that use a song? There are so many out there! Does someone have to submit specific videos? Did Beyonce's camp make BDS aware of the "GMB" one?
4. I would assume there are copyright issues as most of these user-generated videos don't even have permission to use the songs. Does BDS clear things with an artist before counting the stream?

This article should give you a decent idea about these two.