Pandemic Mafia - (Game Over)

[Ginger Spice]

Birthday festivities all night so - I'll check in tomorrow.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Happy birthday ginger bitch!

I'll probably mostly just be on on my iphone from now until tomorrow, until I leave the country so after that, until Monday/Tuesdayish I'll be around sporadically. I expect to be able to put a final vote on someone though for sure....if things pick up that is.

[SuperLaLaLa~]

#Mod: You have 3 days (72 hours) until deadline.

[popstop]

Thought I'd re-read the thread since it's been a little while. Spitballing from the little there is in this thread:

1. Lozzy suggesting Invince's kill might have been a townie trying to get the town talking. I think we can ditch this idea, since no one seems particularly motivated here to get a discussion going.

2. Invince was suspicious of Codex and Josh had his vote on him - possible motivations? Or being framed?

3. I think Landmarx was legit busy because he bowed out of BB, and I think h';s legit lame because I don't think he cares about this mafia. I understand why so many votes are on him, but not sure it's our best move. That said, if we get to panic vote time, and he still has a lot of votes, I'd put my vote on him cause I'd rather lose the dead weight than nolynch.

4. Zebra are you a generic princess, or is there more to it?

5. So Cynthia noted the viral being in red on Invince's death. I think the infections will actually be the night kill since Invince himself died in a horrible spaceship accident, and uh, this is called pandemic.

6. Players who I feel have made the least effort to help move us past RVS: Landmarx, Codex, jback, Ginger. I might do a WOT-like ISO when I have a moment. Not sure it's worth the effort.

7. Max's idea about Jesus/Conchita Wurst being a safe claim does seem right up Kunt's alley. I don't like how quickly Josh shot that down. It's D1; speculations like that are completely ok. And considering how dead it's been, at least Max threw something out there.

8. Still side-eyeing Zebra (and Ginger now that I've re-read) to his reaction to Invince's death. I just feel like scum would make a point of saying "oh, how horrible"  to distance themselves. But other people were trying to get more information on what his death meant.

9. Cynthia, your observations are awesome. Have you been in other games quiet like this? How did it move past that? And why is your vote staying on Max? It hasn't changed since near the outset of the game, and your reason to vote for him initially is "because well, hes Max." .

10. On that same note, I think most of the votes on josh are pretty crappy, and if we go into a panic situation, he's going to be a target thanks to those votes.
A. Max voted for him way back on June 20th, and hasn't switched his vote since.
B. Four minutes after Invince dies, Landmarx comes in and places his only vote on Josh, and then goes back to disappearing. He reasons later that his vote is because josh is a violent drunk. I believe alcoholism affects townies and scum in equal percentage numbers, so I'm pretty this is an invalid reason.
C. jback gave no reason. I'd say he's too busy to give a reason, but the sex is only 7 minutes long.
D. Codex - meh, I'll give Codex a pass even though the reason is weak, but at least makes sense. He thinks josh killed Invincible because it was yolo time for Josh.

11. Now I see why dead players can't come in. Why would Invince only say goodbye to Zebra?

12. Invince was Predator, and I am a penguin. Everyone else is human? I don't believe it!

13. Half the players haven't posted in 3 days. Do the mods not prod for inactivity around here?

14.

I think I'm going to switch my vote to Max. You're participation is there, but I don't understand why the vote keeps staying on Josh. I guess Cynthia is in a similar situation, but I think her observations are MVP-level for the way this game has been going. That said, my reason for voting for you is better than Cynthia's.

Vote: Max

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2014 19:18:31 GMT -5 popstop said:

Thought I'd re-read the thread since it's been a little while. Spitballing from the little there is in this thread:

1. Lozzy suggesting Invince's kill might have been a townie trying to get the town talking. I think we can ditch this idea, since no one seems particularly motivated here to get a discussion going.

2. Invince was suspicious of Codex and Josh had his vote on him - possible motivations? Or being framed?

3. I think Landmarx was legit busy because he bowed out of BB, and I think h';s legit lame because I don't think he cares about this mafia. I understand why so many votes are on him, but not sure it's our best move. That said, if we get to panic vote time, and he still has a lot of votes, I'd put my vote on him cause I'd rather lose the dead weight than nolynch.

4. Zebra are you a generic princess, or is there more to it?

5. So Cynthia noted the viral being in red on Invince's death. I think the infections will actually be the night kill since Invince himself died in a horrible spaceship accident, and uh, this is called pandemic.

6. Players who I feel have made the least effort to help move us past RVS: Landmarx, Codex, jback, Ginger. I might do a WOT-like ISO when I have a moment. Not sure it's worth the effort.

7. Max's idea about Jesus/Conchita Wurst being a safe claim does seem right up Kunt's alley. I don't like how quickly Josh shot that down. It's D1; speculations like that are completely ok. And considering how dead it's been, at least Max threw something out there.

8. Still side-eyeing Zebra (and Ginger now that I've re-read) to his reaction to Invince's death. I just feel like scum would make a point of saying "oh, how horrible"  to distance themselves. But other people were trying to get more information on what his death meant.

9. Cynthia, your observations are awesome. Have you been in other games quiet like this? How did it move past that? And why is your vote staying on Max? It hasn't changed since near the outset of the game, and your reason to vote for him initially is "because well, hes Max." .

10. On that same note, I think most of the votes on josh are pretty crappy, and if we go into a panic situation, he's going to be a target thanks to those votes.
A. Max voted for him way back on June 20th, and hasn't switched his vote since.
B. Four minutes after Invince dies, Landmarx comes in and places his only vote on Josh, and then goes back to disappearing. He reasons later that his vote is because josh is a violent drunk. I believe alcoholism affects townies and scum in equal percentage numbers, so I'm pretty this is an invalid reason.
C. jback gave no reason. I'd say he's too busy to give a reason, but the sex is only 7 minutes long.
D. Codex - meh, I'll give Codex a pass even though the reason is weak, but at least makes sense. He thinks josh killed Invincible because it was yolo time for Josh.

11. Now I see why dead players can't come in. Why would Invince only say goodbye to Zebra?

12. Invince was Predator, and I am a penguin. Everyone else is human? I don't believe it!

13. Half the players haven't posted in 3 days. Do the mods not prod for inactivity around here?

14.

I think I'm going to switch my vote to Max. You're participation is there, but I don't understand why the vote keeps staying on Josh. I guess Cynthia is in a similar situation, but I think her observations are MVP-level for the way this game has been going. That said, my reason for voting for you is better than Cynthia's.

Vote: Max

Good analysis but what about me? I wanna be dragged for my inactivity or whatever else.

[popstop]

Jun 28, 2014 19:26:02 GMT -5 @drag27 said:

Good analysis but what about me? I wanna be dragged for my inactivity or whatever else.

Thanks! I just kind of went through the thread so far and took notes as I was going through. I didn't see anything with you that really registered. You're kind of a null read to me right now tbh. I just picked the people who had been the absolute least active and that's not you. I mean, most of us have not been active, but they stood out.

Also, I see I put Ginger in there, and then I did another run-through and he's posted more than I thought, so maybe I'd remove him.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

That was a good analysis. Enough for me to decide that you're more likely town than anything.

I didn't change my vote at all because I had no reason to. With that said, I have no reason to leave it where it is either and kind of forgot where it was. May as well have been a no vote. I did like your point about voting for a non-active player than having a no lynch since that might be the best we can do with what we have, unfortunately. Though is it? If we choose landmarx with the assumption that there's a 20-25% chance he's scum, plus we'll lose another player at night, we could very well be down two towns for the start of day 2. Maybe going for no lynch is a better option?

Something to talk about at least.

For now:

unvote: josh

[Deleted]

popstop my vote on Max was still in the RVS stage and has stayed there only because I have not felt a reason to move it anywhere else.*

*I have played Mafia before but still am undecided on what the best strategy is to do when a game is starting off slowly. On the one hand leaving my vote on one player with no reason behind it is sketch, but OTOH if I started moving my vote around a lot I think that would look shifty as well, like I was trying to hide something. Having my vote on no one seems pointless at best, and like scum trying to avoid ties at worst. Sheer laziness leads me to go with leaving my vote where it is.

Other games I've played in - yeah, actually when Mafia was first played here we definitely had some games with this problem...and now that I think about it, it was around this time of year. Could be coincidence but maybe there is just something about summer that leads to people being more distracted or busier? I have noticed that even I myself have been more checked out the past few days, still trying to get my energy back from traveling and now catching up with family. Anyway, the moving past the inactivity was a struggle, to put it kindly; we basically would get to the last 48 or even 24 hours and then scramble to get a lynch together. Almost always ended up being an inactive townie (hardly surprising - if a game gets too inactive it is way too easy for scum to start or jump on a bandwagon against another player). So it was a double-edged sword because on the one hand, an inactive player doesn't do us much good, but the mislynch gave scum an immediate leg up. Mislynches are going to be common but it's much less frustrating when that mislynch comes after a fair amount of discussion and analysis, rather than some Russian roulette style shot in the dark.

i'm gonna read through the rest of your post in a minute but i gotta stuff my face first

[Deleted]

#Mod: This is a routine prod for those of you who have been distracted by recent events, and does not count as an official prod for moderation purposes: Codex, Zeebz, Lahey's Lucky Star, Rose "Payola" Nylund, josh, Lozzy, @antigonerising, Landmarx, @yonkab, @drag27, Ginger Spice, popstop

For the remainder of the game, prodding will be enforced.

[Lahey's Lucky Star]

I should probably write out some suspicions:

1.) Popstop does have a point with Landmarx: so far, most of his gameplay has been non-committal. I've been trying to bypass the fact considering he had his Pulse 100 and stuff, but that's long over. Even before he seemed pretty dispassionate about the game. It would be nice to get a good answer from him at this point.

2.) The only two people who spoke out against Invince's drastic change of gameplay were Josh and Zebra, with Josh giving the RVS vote on him. At least Zebra tried to reason out with Invince and hoped that his theory would be at least be RVS. My theory about this is that the more aggressive gameplay would be the one most likely to day-kill.: Josh. Probably would make sense for him to be the town-leaning vig considering he has a history with Invince continually pushing his buttons and a separate history of suckish X-shot performances.

I feel like Josh could still give us something in the later stages of the game, so Vote: Landmarx for the time being.

[Deleted]

Rose "Payola" Nylund, regarding the no-lynch idea, I remember Xiivi breaking it down for us once and early on in the game no-lynches increase scum's chances of winning somehow. Toward the end of a game though there are some situations where no-lynching works to town's advantage. I forget the specific explanation for all of this, of course The other thing is that the no-lynch buys us more time, but that time only works for us if we actually use it. What are the chances that the activity will increase in day two? Mafia meanwhile will have basically been gifted a kill with a cold trail - there will be almost no day 1 discussion to give us any clues to find.

That all said, I am actually not opposed to a no-lynch if the most inactive players at least come in and offer some legit reasons for why they're busy at the moment but will have more free time in the following days to be active (i.e. currently playing BB, dog got sick, have been saving their energy for Pride weekend, etc.).

Regarding most of the points in popstop's post:

1. Probably another reason this has failed to get discussion is b/c speculating on which townie might have killed Invince (if that was indeed the case) potentially puts a power town role in danger. So I'm okay with this angle dying off, at least.

2. Stuff like this reminds me that I really need to stop procrastinating and read through the thread again...it's not like there is that much to examine

5. Yeah, that is pretty much what I was thinking when I had the theory about an 'infector' scum team.

6. I think we're on the same page here in that we're hesitant to immediately go for an inactive lynch but also understand that an inactive townie does not benefit much. And FWIW, in the very first mafia game I played, I was mafia and one of my teammates was inactive on Day 1 (legitimate RL reasons). So it's kind of luck of the draw but I'll be on the lookout for a similar situation because there was a tell-tale sign that gave my partner away in the end.

7. ngl I wasn't crazy about how josh immediately shot down my infector/viral scum theory either, but I initially shrugged it off as me being really attached to my idea (and I still am to be honest). There may be something to this.

8. I don't know why but Zebra's comment really just didn't register as suspect to me; it's just too minor. If he is in fact scum I feel other things will eventually expose him, not this.

9. Answered in above post.

10. I agree with this which is slightly ironic b/c if I were to switch my vote to anyone else right now it would be Josh because of #7.

11. Well that is something to think about, for sure. But that could go either way - Invince could be shouting out his killer OR he and Zebra could have been partners of some kind, which would mean Zebra was town.

12. Hmm, to be fair Drag and Lozzy aren't "a" human, per se - they're an army of Brazilian stans and an army of Gentiles. Do we really need TWO armies of anyting though? Hmmm.

13. I was thinking the same thing, actually. Other than that test the other day no one has been prodded, and I am sure a few people are due.

[popstop]

We really should avoid nolynch. If we lynch a townie by mistake, we can at least try using that going forward as a basis for scum hunting. Otherwise, we'll only have scum's target on D2 to go off of. And of course there's still a chance we'll get lucky and get one of them. Would one of you scum like to volunteer and let us know who you are? Who here is scum? Just tell us and we'll leave you alone. ;)

I think the only situation I've been in where a nolynch would help town, at least theoretically, was the endgame in Snowtrapped.

[Ginger Spice]

Yeah a wrong lynch is better than no lynch in most situations, including this one. Although undesirable, a town lynch will still give us ideas on who scum is (their role, and how they've interacted with certain players).

I'm gonna move my vote to Vote: Landmarx since he's barely been in here. It's a weak reason to vote for someone, especially since I know it's Landmarx's playing style, but I feel like we're grasping for straws at this point anyways.

[Deleted]

Day 1 begins.

Deadline has been set for 6/30/2014 23:59:59 EDT.

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Josh: 3 (jback, Landmarx, Codex)
Lahey: 1 (Lozzy)
Landmarx: 5 (Josh, Drag, Zebra, Lahey, Ginger Spice)
Max: 2 (Cynthia, popstop)

Not voting: (Max)

[Deleted]

As of now, I'm gonna keep my vote on Landmarx since he hasn't really been vocal about why he's voting for Josh. I also need to hear more from @yonkab.

[Zeebz]

I'm leaving my vote too. He hasn't really been here that much, and the unexplained vote on Josh is weird too.

Popstop that was a nice analysis. I'm just a generic princess.

[Deleted]

I forgot this was still going on.

Vote: Landmarx

[Deleted]

As for my reason I only need one word "nine".

[josh]

I'm leaving my vote on Landmarx, even though there's really nothing for it.

[Deleted]

Just as an FYI, Landmarx is at L-1.

[Deleted]

LOL. Have fun with that guys. I'm not going to role claim but you're going to feel sbsolutely awful.

[Ginger Spice]

I didn't realize there were four people already voting for him. I'm going to Unvote: Landmarx at the moment just because my vote wasn't really backed up by much and I think at this point we should use all the time we have.

[Ginger Spice]

Jun 29, 2014 12:46:26 GMT -5 Landmarx said:

I'm not going to role claim but you're going to feel sbsolutely awful.

For some reason I believe you.

[Deleted]

Day 1 begins.

Deadline has been set for 6/30/2014 23:59:59 EDT.

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Josh: 2 (Landmarx, Codex)
Lahey: 1 (Lozzy)
Landmarx: 5 (Josh, Drag, Zebra, Lahey, jback)
Max: 2 (Cynthia, popstop)

Not voting: (Max, Ginger Spice)

#Mod: please keep in mind that you have 34 hours until deadline.

[popstop]

I believe you too, Landmarx, but I think some people aren't necessarily voting for you because they think you're mafia; it's because you seem tuned out. I understand if you don't want to play - you should seek a replacement then instead of just lingering here.

If you are playing, I don't think there's a real reason for your josh vote, and you haven't weighed in on anyone else. How are you helping town?

[Deleted]

Oh alright, I'll put the pressure on someone else who doesn't seem to be invested in this game:
[/b]Vote: Codex[/b]

[Deleted]

Vote: Codex

[Deleted]

@yonkab all jokes aside, why did you just come in out of nowhere to put Landmark at L-1?

[Deleted]

it's not much to go on but I guess that's as good a reason as any to change a vote

Vote: jback

[Deleted]

blah triple post, but wanted to add that fwiw Ginger moving his vote from Landmarx makes me think Ginger is town, because scum would want someone to be at L-1 rather than moving away from it.