Adam Lambert - "Ghost Town"

[graffeodl]

Stays on the Hot 100 at #85.

[KissMyAxe]

yaaaaaay this is getting its 100th wind on Pop radio

[popbox]

Always felt this one would end up a slow burn hit. Glad it's still hanging in there. Would like to see it make at least top 15 on CHR and then send out Rumors to smash and really ignite this era. From there they have so many choices for subsequent singles (There I Said It, Underground, Evil in the Night, The Original High, Things I Didn't Say, etc). Hopefully this really is his breakout era.

[Az Paynter]

POP:
28 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2468 2238 230 9.467

+24 Spins
+32 Bullet
+0.023 Audience

HOT AC:
18 19 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1703 1706 -3 8.090

+22 Spins
+27 Bullet
+0.155 Audience

[KissMyAxe]

Jul 10, 2015 2:13:23 GMT -5 popbox said:

Always felt this one would end up a slow burn hit. Glad it's still hanging in there. Would like to see it make at least top 15 on CHR and then send out Rumors to smash and really ignite this era. From there they have so many choices for subsequent singles (There I Said It, Underground, Evil in the Night, The Original High, Things I Didn't Say, etc). Hopefully this really is his breakout era.

Top 15? This would happen in 2020 darling

[Libra]

Jul 7, 2015 14:39:43 GMT -5 Q3 said:

On the callout scores, "Ghost Town" has not reached the 60% familiarity threshold on Top 40 yet. Only songs with at least 60% familiar to qualify for the Mediabase/Critical Mass Media callout report.
GT has only been on the HAC callout report for 2 weeks (6/26/15 and 7/3/15 reports) -- HAC familiarity is up to 68.6% (+3.7%) and numbers look good. HAC Net pos 37%, H burn 5.5%.
If it gets over the familiarity hurdle on Top 40 callout (it should), the numbers are likely to be good since the formats typically results in similar ratings for dance pop songs.

That's actually not that great TBQH.

Let's take its HAC scores for this week and splice them in to compare to the Pop listing:

Positive - 56.0% (Would rank 28th out of 33)
Negative - 24.1% (7th highest for HAC, but actually not in the top half for Pop - 21 out of 33)
Favorite - 12.2% (Rock bottom)

I'm not sure how much its scores would differ for Pop once they come in, but...yeah, these current ones for HAC aren't exactly inspiring.

[Q3]

Jul 10, 2015 12:40:43 GMT -5 Libra said:

Jul 7, 2015 14:39:43 GMT -5 Q3 said:

On the callout scores, "Ghost Town" has not reached the 60% familiarity threshold on Top 40 yet. Only songs with at least 60% familiar to qualify for the Mediabase/Critical Mass Media callout report.
GT has only been on the HAC callout report for 2 weeks (6/26/15 and 7/3/15 reports) -- HAC familiarity is up to 68.6% (+3.7%) and numbers look good. HAC Net pos 37%, H burn 5.5%.
If it gets over the familiarity hurdle on Top 40 callout (it should), the numbers are likely to be good since the formats typically results in similar ratings for dance pop songs.

That's actually not that great TBQH.

Let's take its HAC scores for this week and splice them in to compare to the Pop listing:

Positive - 56.0% (Would rank 28th out of 33)
Negative - 24.1% (7th highest for HAC, but actually not in the top half for Pop - 21 out of 33)
Favorite - 12.2% (Rock bottom)

I'm not sure how much its scores would differ for Pop once they come in, but...yeah, these current ones for HAC aren't exactly inspiring.

I posted before the 7/20/15 numbers came out -- but I used the newest numbers below.

****

I don't think move the HAC numbers over to the Top 40 results makes any sense -- these are two different survey populations. Top 40 survey respondents rate music differently that HAC raters. Here are two songs to illustrate the difference. Top 40 raters tend to pick more songs as Favorites:

7/10/2015	Title	Positive	Favorite	Negative	Heavy Burnout	Familiarity
HAC 17 of 21	This Summer's Gonna Hurt...	50.9	12.4	26.6	7	75.8
POP 23 of 32	This Summer's Gonna Hurt...	54.4	16.1	28.6	7.5	79.2
HAC 4 of 21	Bad Blood	63.3	22.6	22.8	7.8	92.4
POP 1 of 32	Bad Blood	69	35.1	23.3	9.7	96.7

Generally, Top 40 raters pick more Favorite songs, have more polarized ratings, and have a faster burnout rate.

***

Setting aside the concept of moving a song's HAC rating into the Pop chart with no adjustment...

Overall the net positive number (37%) for "Ghost Town" is good - #12 of 21. I would not use the word "inspiring" but that is a solid number.
The potential for the song is +24 pts. and that is an excellent sign.

The song ratings are heavily correlated to Familiarity and Burnout. "Ghost Town" is not old enough, and does not have enough cum to have an issue with Heavy Burn.

There are 6 songs on the 7/10/15 HAC Callout that have mean familiarity <70%. There is one standout song, not surprisingly "Photograph", but GT is in the top half of these songs.

HAC Rank	Artist/Title	Positive	Favorite	Negative	Heavy Burnout	Familiarity
16	LAMBERT, ADAM Ghost Town	56	12.2	24.1	6.5	69.3
17	SIA Elastic Heart	57.4	16.3	20.1	4.7	69.2
18	MUMFORD & SONS Believe	52.9	8.4	17.4	5.9	64.8
19	BAY, JAMES Hold Back The River	50.6	7.3	21.6	7.2	64.5
20	SHEERAN, ED Photograph	64.4	19	14.1	5	64.3
21	THE WEEKND Can't Feel My Face	46.9	11.5	29.2	5.3	64.2"

Within the songs with similar levels of familiarity:

Positive rating and Favorite - "Ghost Town" is #3 of 6, only Sia and Ed Sheeran have higher ratings. Positive rating is nominally down but statistically the same as last week (lw 58.4%)

The negative rating for "Ghost Town" is on the high side but lower that I would expect to see for a song like GT that is an unusual genre for HAC. And it is not so high as to be a huge concern.

I think the "Ghost Town" HAC numbers look good -- maybe not inspiring but good.

[Q3]

Jul 10, 2015 2:13:23 GMT -5 popbox said:

Always felt this one would end up a slow burn hit. Glad it's still hanging in there. Would like to see it make at least top 15 on CHR and then send out Rumors to smash and really ignite this era. From there they have so many choices for subsequent singles (There I Said It, Underground, Evil in the Night, The Original High, Things I Didn't Say, etc). Hopefully this really is his breakout era.

Beautiful thought but not much chance of "Ghost Town" moving up to #15. It is going to be around for a while -- I bet it will be around until well into August.

I think TOH will be the follow-up single. The other song that has good indicators on streaming media and track sales is "Another Lonely Night".

"Rumors" is very unlikely to be a single since Tove Lo is just releasing her new single "Time Bomb".

"There I Said It" is also very unlikely to be a pop single -- it is an excellent album track but really not suitable for pop radio.

[KissMyAxe]

Either The Original High or Evil in the Night should be the next single, those 2 are AMAZING !!!

Even The Light is a great dance track <3

[graffeodl]

POP:
28 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2517 2264 253 9.451

+49 Spins
+23 Bullet
-0.016 Audience

HAC:
18 19 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1713 1698 15 8.016

+10 Spins
+18 Bullet
-0.074 Audience

[graffeodl]

More recent chart appearances:
Still #1 in South Africa


2015-07-11
#75 Netherlands Album Chart
#8 Netherlands Top 40 Ghost Town (Airplay, streams & Social media)
#14 Netherlands Single Top 100 Ghost Town (Downloads & Streams)
#7 Netherlands iTunes Top 30 Ghost Town (only iTunes)
#7 Netherlands Mega Top 50 Ghost Town (Airplay, streams and downloads all count for 1/3)

2015-07-13
#37 New Zealand Album Chart
#22 ARIA Singles Chart GT Gold sales (35,000)
#37 ARIA Album Chart

2015-07-18
#74 BB 200
#65 BB Top Selling Albums
#85 BB Hot 100
#100 BB Artist 100
#20 BB Adult Pop Songs GT
#29 BB Pop Songs GT

[downsouth]

It feels like this song is picking up. It deserves top 20 at least. Hopefully higher.

[emerald]

This has been growing on me lately. Still don't love it yet.

[foxxden]

the low familiarity numbers in the call out proves my point that sometimes it's radio that drives digital sales (and not always the other way around). people don't buy songs they don't know exist lol.

[wonderstruck94]

where do the call out scores come from?

On rate the music Ghost Town is #1 on HAC and #2 on Top 40? 

[jaex]

Jul 11, 2015 16:38:32 GMT -5 wonderstruck94 said:

where do the call out scores come from?

On rate the music Ghost Town is #1 on HAC and #2 on Top 40? 

They're mediabase numbers. The problem with ratethemusic numbers is that anyone can take their polls, so it's difficult to know to what extent they reflect the taste of casual listeners because fans could spam the polls.

Jul 11, 2015 16:18:52 GMT -5 foxxden said:

the low familiarity numbers in the call out proves my point that sometimes it's radio that drives digital sales (and not always the other way around). people don't buy songs they don't know exist lol.

I agree. Ghost Town seems to be slowly rising on iTunes, so it seems that increased radio airplay does affect the sales. But the AI isn't all that high yet, so the sales aren't that great either. I mean, he isn't one of those artists who can sell well based on their name alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the sales if radio airplay continues to increase.

[Az Paynter]

POP:
29 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2552 2294 258 9.642

+35 Spins
+5 Bullet
+0.191 Audience

HOT AC:
18 19 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1742 1698 44 8.281

+29 Spins
+29 Bullet
+0.265 Audience

[wonderstruck94]

Jul 12, 2015 2:27:20 GMT -5 jaex said:

Jul 11, 2015 16:38:32 GMT -5 wonderstruck94 said:

where do the call out scores come from?

On rate the music Ghost Town is #1 on HAC and #2 on Top 40? 

They're mediabase numbers. The problem with ratethemusic numbers is that anyone can take their polls, so it's difficult to know to what extent they reflect the taste of casual listeners because fans could spam the polls.

Jul 11, 2015 16:18:52 GMT -5 foxxden said:

the low familiarity numbers in the call out proves my point that sometimes it's radio that drives digital sales (and not always the other way around). people don't buy songs they don't know exist lol.

I agree. Ghost Town seems to be slowly rising on iTunes, so it seems that increased radio airplay does affect the sales. But the AI isn't all that high yet, so the sales aren't that great either. I mean, he isn't one of those artists who can sell well based on their name alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the sales if radio airplay continues to increase.

Thanks for the answer :)  I do rate the music once in a while and I only get sent one poll a week so I'm curious how would spamming work on that site?  Multiple email addresses I guess would make sense but the poll takes like 10 minutes; do you think Adam has enough dedicated fans to have that kind of impact? 

It will be interesting to see how the sales look if radio play continues to increase.  I wish it would move faster though.  While I'm glad the song keep moving in the positive direction, these tiny increases in AI and spins are frustrating. 

[jaex]

Jul 12, 2015 6:59:49 GMT -5 wonderstruck94 said:

Thanks for the answer :)  I do rate the music once in a while and I only get sent one poll a week so I'm curious how would spamming work on that site?  Multiple email addresses I guess would make sense but the poll takes like 10 minutes; do you think Adam has enough dedicated fans to have that kind of impact? 

It will be interesting to see how the sales look if radio play continues to increase.  I wish it would move faster though.  While I'm glad the song keep moving in the positive direction, these tiny increases in AI and spins are frustrating. 

Maybe spamming was too strong a word, but I mean that those kind of polls tend to attract fans, it's not a random sample of casual radio listeners. Sometimes I've seen fans of other artists send links to the polls and encourage other fans to participate. There's nothing wrong with that imo, it just means that the results can be different than if you polled a random selection of people.

I don't know if Adam's fans do this, or whether he has enough fans to have much of an impact on the results. Personally, I don't think Ghost Town would be high on ratethemusic if it's just his fans who like the song. Anyway, it's not that I'm suspicious of Ghost Town's score specifically, it's that I think people generally take mediabase callout scores more seriously than ratethemusic results because fans can't influence them so much.

And yeah, I'm getting impatient with these tiny AI/spin increases too. I mean I'm glad it is going in the right direction, I just wish it would move there faster lol.

[Q3]

Jul 12, 2015 8:30:12 GMT -5 jaex said:

Jul 12, 2015 6:59:49 GMT -5 wonderstruck94 said:

Thanks for the answer :)  I do rate the music once in a while and I only get sent one poll a week so I'm curious how would spamming work on that site?  Multiple email addresses I guess would make sense but the poll takes like 10 minutes; do you think Adam has enough dedicated fans to have that kind of impact? 

It will be interesting to see how the sales look if radio play continues to increase.  I wish it would move faster though.  While I'm glad the song keep moving in the positive direction, these tiny increases in AI and spins are frustrating. 

Maybe spamming was too strong a word, but I mean that those kind of polls tend to attract fans, it's not a random sample of casual radio listeners. Sometimes I've seen fans of other artists send links to the polls and encourage other fans to participate. There's nothing wrong with that imo, it just means that the results can be different than if you polled a random selection of people.

I don't know if Adam's fans do this, or whether he has enough fans to have much of an impact on the results. Personally, I don't think Ghost Town would be high on ratethemusic if it's just his fans who like the song. Anyway, it's not that I'm suspicious of Ghost Town's score specifically, it's that I think people generally take mediabase callout scores more seriously than ratethemusic results because fans can't influence them so much.

And yeah, I'm getting impatient with these tiny AI/spin increases too. I mean I'm glad it is going in the right direction, I just wish it would move there faster lol.

On the question of whether Adam fans specifically participate in Rate The Music to support him: Yes. Adam has very passionate fans and they take the time and effort to sign up for and complete the weekly Rate The Music Surveys. The result is that Adam fans are probably/almost certainly over represented in the RTM sample. The result is rating samples that are not representative of CHR and HAC listeners.

Rate The Music is not a callout survey and they do not claim to be. RTM is not a representative sample of core radio station listeners and target listeners which is what a callout is intended to be. They claim to predict future hits but the data does not really support this. It does appear to be a measure of fan passion.

Rate The Music is a survey anyone can sign up for and there is no verification. The data from this survey is not an accurate measure of the general population. Selective participation in the survey tends to skew the result -- and that appears to be what has happened right now with "Ghost Town". Rate The Music claims to be an early indicator.

RateTheMusic (RTM) Internet-based music research is a leading indicator of what will eventually be shown by traditional callout research.

Typical RTM survey respondents are heavy radio listeners and active music consumers, passionate about music, whatever their favorite format/type of music. These music raters are the "leading edge" of the audience for all formats/types of music.

Thus, Familiarity will be seen sooner than possible for callout (weeks before a song has accumulated enough plays to be considered for testing via callout), and Burn will develop sooner as well. For these reasons, RTM recommends that, whenever possible, our Internet-based results be used in conjunction with traditional callout research, to balance the "leading edge" results with those of the "mass audience."

Each week, RTM tests the top 30 current songs in each format (top 20 songs for AC) according to Mediabase's most recent airplay charts. Participants are screened via the Internet. RateTheMusic results are not meant to replace callout research and are intended to show opinions of participants on the Internet only.

Mediabase/Critical Mix Media is an online "callout" survey. They use a panel recruited by phone for specific radio stations and participants are somewhat more likely to be actual listeners to radio stations. The survey is usually more predictive of a song's popularity because the sampling method is somewhat more rigorous resulting in a more representative sample. It is not a traditional callout which are done by phone and requires the survey participant to listen to song clips.

Overall, traditional callout surveys are most reliable, online callouts are directionally corrent but not as reliable.

- Callouts are best used to monitor response to songs that are on the radio not to predict hits.

- Online "callout" surveys are not great predictors unless they force survey participants to listen to a clip of the music and use a properly managed panel. A proper construct can eliminate the problems of executing a song test online.

- Callout surveys are best used a song registers familiarity level >50% or >60% -- that means that the song has been around long enough so that the rating incorporates the effectiveness and scope of the song promo, the music video, popularity artist/band, social factors, composition, lyrics, etc. etc. Many music researchers prefer other, more reliable music research methods.

wonderstruck94tra

On rate the music Ghost Town is #1 on HAC and #2 on Top 40?

Here are the current ratings of GT on Rate The Music -- the familiarity number alone proves that the sample must be skewed by Adam and/or "Ghost Town" fans. There has not been enough exposure to GT to be a 85% familiarity.

Age = 12+ (all survey respondents)

Top 40 #2 Adam Lambert Ghost Town Pop: 3.7 Fam%: 85 Burn%: 18%
HAC #1 Adam Lambert Ghost Town Pop: 4.18 Fam: 85 Burn%: 13%

LEGEND:
Pop (Fam): Popularity among users familiar with the song. Scores are based on a scale of 1-5 (1 = dislike a lot, 5 = like a lot)
Fam%: The percentage of respondents who recognized the song
Burn% (Fam): The percentage of respondents familiar with the song who are tired of hearing it

[graffeodl]

Here's some radio chart positions from Japan
Weekly FM charts in Japan bayfm (Chiba) #3 New J-WAVE (Tokyo) #47 New FM FUji #18 New α-STATION FM Kyoto #28 New Love FM (Fukuoka) #33

[graffeodl]

PUBLISHED CHARTS

POP:
29 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2553 2294 259 9.643

+36 Spins
+6 Bullet
+0.192 Audience

HOT AC:
18 18 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1742 1698 44 8.281

+29 Spins
+29 Bullet
+0.265 Audience

Monday update

POP:
29 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2606 2326 280 9.968

+53 Spins
+21 Bullet
+0.325 Audience

HAC:
18 18 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1753 1688 65 8.374

+11 Spins
+21 Bullet
+0.093 Audience

[wonderstruck94]

Jul 12, 2015 11:56:41 GMT -5 Q3 said:

Jul 12, 2015 8:30:12 GMT -5 jaex said:

Maybe spamming was too strong a word, but I mean that those kind of polls tend to attract fans, it's not a random sample of casual radio listeners. Sometimes I've seen fans of other artists send links to the polls and encourage other fans to participate. There's nothing wrong with that imo, it just means that the results can be different than if you polled a random selection of people.

I don't know if Adam's fans do this, or whether he has enough fans to have much of an impact on the results. Personally, I don't think Ghost Town would be high on ratethemusic if it's just his fans who like the song. Anyway, it's not that I'm suspicious of Ghost Town's score specifically, it's that I think people generally take mediabase callout scores more seriously than ratethemusic results because fans can't influence them so much.

And yeah, I'm getting impatient with these tiny AI/spin increases too. I mean I'm glad it is going in the right direction, I just wish it would move there faster lol.

On the question of whether Adam fans specifically participate in Rate The Music to support him: Yes. Adam has very passionate fans and they take the time and effort to sign up for and complete the weekly Rate The Music Surveys. The result is that Adam fans are probably/almost certainly over represented in the RTM sample. The result is rating samples that are not representative of CHR and HAC listeners.

Rate The Music is not a callout survey and they do not claim to be. RTM is not a representative sample of core radio station listeners and target listeners which is what a callout is intended to be. They claim to predict future hits but the data does not really support this. It does appear to be a measure of fan passion.

Rate The Music is a survey anyone can sign up for and there is no verification. The data from this survey is not an accurate measure of the general population. Selective participation in the survey tends to skew the result -- and that appears to be what has happened right now with "Ghost Town". Rate The Music claims to be an early indicator.

[snip]

umm thanks?  That's a lot more information than I was looking for but since you answered, what is the purpose of Adam fans so heavily participating in Rate the Music if it has no impact?   Why do they waste their time?  

[foxxden]

Remixes for this were released to iTunes on Friday. They are actually pretty good. I purchased the Tritonal remix :)

[Q3]

Jul 13, 2015 9:04:53 GMT -5 wonderstruck94 said:

Jul 12, 2015 11:56:41 GMT -5 Q3 said:

On the question of whether Adam fans specifically participate in Rate The Music to support him: Yes. Adam has very passionate fans and they take the time and effort to sign up for and complete the weekly Rate The Music Surveys. The result is that Adam fans are probably/almost certainly over represented in the RTM sample. The result is rating samples that are not representative of CHR and HAC listeners.

Rate The Music is not a callout survey and they do not claim to be. RTM is not a representative sample of core radio station listeners and target listeners which is what a callout is intended to be. They claim to predict future hits but the data does not really support this. It does appear to be a measure of fan passion.

Rate The Music is a survey anyone can sign up for and there is no verification. The data from this survey is not an accurate measure of the general population. Selective participation in the survey tends to skew the result -- and that appears to be what has happened right now with "Ghost Town". Rate The Music claims to be an early indicator.

[snip]

umm thanks?  That's a lot more information than I was looking for but since you answered, what is the purpose of Adam fans so heavily participating in Rate the Music if it has no impact?   Why do they waste their time?  

My guess is that fans hope that participating RTM will matter -- and it can't hurt. Other fans do this too -- it is not just Adam fans.

Fans vote in countless meaningless online popularity polls and taking the time to do Rate The Music is more meaningful than voting in most of the online polls.

There are studies of fans that indicate that fans want to make a difference and feel rewarded when they have done something to support their favorite. So that may be the underlying motivation.

***

In any case, the fact that "Ghost Town" is #1 HAC, #2 Top 40 on Rate The Music -- is proof to me of the high level fan commitment to Adam and this song.

Jul 13, 2015 10:08:39 GMT -5 foxxden said:

Remixes for this were released to iTunes on Friday. They are actually pretty good. I purchased the Tritonal remix :)

Yes, I like that one too. I bought a few of the remixes and I think Tritonal is my fav. I also picked up a couple other Tritonal reixes.

[Mikey]

The remixes are very good - standouts including Tritonal's & Dave Winnel's - but my favorite is this because it's right on my alley :

https%3A//soundcloud.com/nordigaz-bootlegs/adam-lambert-ghost-town-nordigaz-bootleg1

[Az Paynter]

After the past few days, really?

POP:
29 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2605 2354 251 10.172

-1 Spin
-29 Bullet
+0.204 Audience

HOT AC:
18 18 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1747 1704 43 8.383

-6 Spins
-22 Bullet
+0.009 Audience

AC:
33 29 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 72 61 11 0.212

+1 Spin
-1 Bullet
= Audience

[wonderstruck94]

Jul 14, 2015 5:05:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

After the past few days, really?

POP:
29 27 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 2605 2354 251 10.172

-1 Spin
-29 Bullet
+0.204 Audience

HOT AC:
18 18 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 1747 1704 43 8.383

-6 Spins
-22 Bullet
+0.009 Audience

AC:
33 29 ADAM LAMBERT Ghost Town 72 61 11 0.212

+1 Spin
-1 Bullet
= Audience

ewww lol

[Mikey]

Up 5 spots to #80 on the hot 100! ^_^

[keepitreal]

TOP40- Adds

ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town
Stations: 6

KPTT-FM (Denver, CO)
KXXM-FM (San Antonio)
KZZP-FM (Phoenix, AZ)
WBLI-FM (Long Island, NY.)
WHYI-FM (Fort Lauderdale, FL. Miami) Y100
WKGS-FM (Rochester, NY)

Non-Monitored
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town
Stations: 1

KNIN-FM (Wichita Falls, Texas) 92.9 NIN