forg
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Post by forg on Feb 1, 2016 17:59:40 GMT -5
If Work can debut at #9 then what more can PILLOWTALK and Summer Sixteen can do next week, both top 5 debuts?
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Post by jj99$ - - LeLe on Feb 1, 2016 18:09:59 GMT -5
PILLOWTALK could challenge for #1
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carreramd
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Post by carreramd on Feb 1, 2016 18:27:28 GMT -5
I expected that In The Night would have the success of My House. Hope PILLOWTALK will be top 3.
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Feb 1, 2016 20:19:12 GMT -5
I'm loving the big shake up in the Top 10. I'm glad they tweaked the formula for the Hot 100 because it was getting too slow and static due to streaming. I'm all for the sales percentage increase. Hopefully this works in favor of Stressed Out with a possible #1. This should also help WWWY since it's not available on streaming. And I'm so happy to see Hands To Myself in the top 10. It's my favorite song on the album. Also a big wow to My House going Top 5, I didn't see that coming.
If Work was released Friday and it got a week's worth of sales, I wonder if it could've debuted Top 3??
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Feb 1, 2016 20:22:03 GMT -5
'Work' has the lowest H100 point total for a top 10 song I've seen since keeping track last year. right? less than 18k. Well, it's #9 so doesn't 1 song this week have a lower total? |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Feb 1, 2016 20:32:11 GMT -5
Fascinating week. My gut is prioritizing sales is curious but then I'd like to see if it allows newer songs to climb faster. Which it already seems to be doing which is nice.
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Feb 1, 2016 21:25:42 GMT -5
Everyone needs to think this over. Work had that radio deal, so it got a clear advantage there. I am not sure what PILLOWTALK and Summer Sixteen could debut at. I say at least top 20 for Summer Sixteen. PILLOWTALK should get top 15 and maybe top 10.
Edit: After looking at sales, Summer Sixteen should debut in the top 15 and PILLOWTALK debut anywhere above #13
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Feb 1, 2016 21:37:03 GMT -5
#89 Ariana Grande - Focus Wow, that's how much a digital increase can do. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2016 21:48:55 GMT -5
#89 Ariana Grande - Focus Wow, that's how much a digital increase can do. Yeah, plus point totals in the bottom half of the H100 are fairly close to each other, generally... compared to the upper half, anyway. It doesn't take much to drop that much when there's a formula change like this, especially when the song is being held up almost solely by the one metric that took a hit this week. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2016 21:53:27 GMT -5
Everyone needs to think this over. Work had that radio deal, so it got a clear advantage there. I am not sure what PILLOWTALK and Summer Sixteen could debut at. I say at least top 20 for Summer Sixteen. PILLOWTALK should get top 15 and maybe top 10. Edit: After looking at sales, Summer Sixteen should debut in the top 15 and PILLOWTALK debut anywhere above #13 I think we're looking at top 10s for both, honestly. Unless Im totally off with what I'm thinking they did to the weighting (which is entirely possible haha) 244k sales alone puts a song in top 10 contention, at least based on this week's point totals in the top 10.... which are both lower and closer than I often see, even after the formula change. Am I crazy? Can I get a witness? |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Feb 1, 2016 22:00:17 GMT -5
Everyone needs to think this over. Work had that radio deal, so it got a clear advantage there. I am not sure what PILLOWTALK and Summer Sixteen could debut at. I say at least top 20 for Summer Sixteen. PILLOWTALK should get top 15 and maybe top 10. Edit: After looking at sales, Summer Sixteen should debut in the top 15 and PILLOWTALK debut anywhere above #13 I think we're looking at top 10s for both, honestly. Unless Im totally off with what I'm thinking they did to the weighting (which is entirely possible haha) 244k sales alone puts a song in top 10 contention, at least based on this week's point totals in the top 10.... which are both lower and closer than I often see, even after the formula change. 2 things that I can't figure out. How much do YouTube views affect debut position. Example: 27m views for PILLOWTALK. And I don't think they gave sales that much of an increase. Also, I can't really see 2 top 10 debuts happening |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 1, 2016 22:15:33 GMT -5
I'm loving the big shake up in the Top 10. I'm glad they tweaked the formula for the Hot 100 because it was getting too slow and static due to streaming. I'm all for the sales percentage increase. Hopefully this works in favor of Stressed Out with a possible #1. This should also help WWWY since it's not available on streaming. And I'm so happy to see Hands To Myself in the top 10. It's my favorite song on the album. Also a big wow to My House going Top 5, I didn't see that coming. Agree 110%. I had mentioned a few times before that the sales weightage should be increased and streaming weightage should be decreased. Top-5 had become very static. It was monopolized by a few songs with 10+ weeks (a few songs managed to sneak 1-2 weeks but that was it). Also, a good effect will be that the songs which were going on and on on the charts due to streaming will drop faster. For example, Watch Me was in Top-30 last week, it probably fell off the charts this week or will fall off soon. This was the change I was advocating in place of the new recurrent rule. |
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Feb 1, 2016 22:28:33 GMT -5
I'm loving the big shake up in the Top 10. I'm glad they tweaked the formula for the Hot 100 because it was getting too slow and static due to streaming. I'm all for the sales percentage increase. Hopefully this works in favor of Stressed Out with a possible #1. This should also help WWWY since it's not available on streaming. And I'm so happy to see Hands To Myself in the top 10. It's my favorite song on the album. Also a big wow to My House going Top 5, I didn't see that coming. Agree 110%. I had mentioned a few times before that the sales weightage should be increased and streaming weightage should be decreased. Top-5 had become very static. It was monopolized by a few songs with 10+ weeks (a few songs managed to sneak 1-2 weeks but that was it). Also, a good effect will be that the songs which were going on and on on the charts due to streaming will drop faster. For example, Watch Me was in Top-30 last week, it probably fell off the charts this week or will fall off soon. This was the change I was advocating in place of the new recurrent rule. This is exactly what I was thinking too. I thought that they should have lowered streaming weight and increased sales weight at the first week of the 2016 chart year instead of just now, tested it out for a year, and if the chart was still moving as slow as it was before, then add in the recurrent rule. Major fuck-up for sure on Billboard's part here. |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 1, 2016 23:06:09 GMT -5
The Old formula was:
Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900
As far as I can figure out from this week chart, the new formula is
Sales/9 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/1200
We'll need to see a few weeks to confirm.
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carreramd
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Post by carreramd on Feb 1, 2016 23:26:59 GMT -5
The Old formula was: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900 As far as I can figure out from this week chart, the new formula is Sales/9 + Airplay/10,0000 + Streams/1200 We'll need to see a few weeks to confirm. Great. Thanks! |
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Feb 1, 2016 23:50:19 GMT -5
Well, the more probable one is:
Sales/10 + Airplay/10,0000 + Streams/1100
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 2, 2016 0:00:05 GMT -5
Well, the more probable one is: Sales/10 + Airplay/10,0000 + Streams/1100 Well I also tried your formula, but if that were the case, there was no way Work would have ranked higher than Here. Your formula: Work - 126 - 44 - 2.2 = 19,000 Here - 30 - 110 - 7.0 = 20,360 My formula: Work - 126 - 44 - 2.2 = 20,230 Here - 30 - 110 - 7.0 = 20,170 |
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Feb 2, 2016 0:11:19 GMT -5
Let's do some really early predictions:
Rank Title Sales + Airplay + Streams = Points
1 PILLOWTALK 220-260 + 15-25 + 18-22 = 40,000-48,500
(It has two versions and according to chartnews it already sold 200k within first 3 days of release. As for streaming, even if only 25% of youtube views for Zayn is from US, by the end of this week he can gain at least 12m from the vid alone.)
2 Love Yourself 105 + 143 + 16.5 = around 40,000
3-5 Stressed Out
3-5 Sorry
3-5 Summer Sixteen 250 + at least 5 + at least 5-10 (it has apple music and everything) = very roughly 30,000-35,000 (or even more!)
6-7 Work 150 + 75 + 10 (if it drew 2.2 m on its first day) = 31,500
6-7 Hello
Imo PILLOWTALK literally has a great shot at that No.1 !!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 0:38:01 GMT -5
Yay for My House climbing into top 5! His highest-peaking song since summer 2012! (I Cry peaked at #6 IIRC)
such a jam!
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born
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Post by born on Feb 2, 2016 0:45:09 GMT -5
'PILLOWTALK' is about to hit #1 or at least the top 3. Funny, when his highest peak with 1D was #2.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 1:01:18 GMT -5
Everyone needs to think this over. Work had that radio deal, so it got a clear advantage there. I am not sure what PILLOWTALK and Summer Sixteen could debut at. I say at least top 20 for Summer Sixteen. PILLOWTALK should get top 15 and maybe top 10. Edit: After looking at sales, Summer Sixteen should debut in the top 15 and PILLOWTALK debut anywhere above #13 Pillowtalk and Summer Sixteen are gonna beat Work's first week sales at least 2 to 1. Plus, they're available to stream on more platforms. Pillowtalk is getting around 10 million youtube views per day. Even if they're not all from the US, that's huge. This will probably make up for the radio gap. Maybe not enough to pass LY or SO, which already have tons of airplay, but it's probably on track to rack up more points than Work's debut. Work might have more stability if sales stop freefalling, though. |
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jarhys
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Post by jarhys on Feb 2, 2016 1:13:12 GMT -5
Three songs snapped into top 10! The Old formula was: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900 As far as I can figure out from this week chart, the new formula is Sales/9 + Airplay/10,0000 + Streams/1200 We'll need to see a few weeks to confirm. How did they decrease the ratio of airplay to 1/10? Isn't it a bit too much? |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 2, 2016 1:13:32 GMT -5
PILLOWTALK IS LOCKED FOR #1!!!!
PILLOWTALK is on track for 7.5M+ on Spotify and at least 10M views on Youtube. Including other sources, it will have 20M streams MINIMUM. More likely it will be in 22-24M range.
PILLOWTALK - 220 - 15 - 20.0 = 42,600
Love Yourself - 105 - 140 - 16.0 = 39,000
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 2, 2016 1:14:32 GMT -5
Three songs snapped into top 10! The Old formula was: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900 As far as I can figure out from this week chart, the new formula is Sales/9 + Airplay/10,0000 + Streams/1200 We'll need to see a few weeks to confirm. How did they decrease the ratio of airplay to 1/10? Isn't it a bit too much? Sorry, i typed one '0' extra by mistake. :) |
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jarhys
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Post by jarhys on Feb 2, 2016 1:30:41 GMT -5
Three songs snapped into top 10! How did they decrease the ratio of airplay to 1/10? Isn't it a bit too much? Sorry, i typed one '0' extra by mistake. :) Haha, I thought that would explain how 'Here' dropped so fast after peaking. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 1:39:01 GMT -5
I've just realized something: This new change is gonna absolutely kill Watch Me, which is has been kept afloat by streaming for months.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 1:51:08 GMT -5
I've just realized something: This new change is gonna absolutely kill Watch Me, which is has been kept afloat by streaming for months. in that case, I really wish they would've done it sooner lol (well in any case I wish that tbh. why couldn't they just do that instead of the silly new 52-week recurrent rule? without sales impact the Hot 100 might as well call itself the YouTube/Spotify hybrid chart...) |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 2, 2016 2:13:51 GMT -5
Sorry, i typed one '0' extra by mistake. :) Haha, I thought that would explain how 'Here' dropped so fast after peaking. Actually, there hasn't been much of a spread between #5-10 lately, only about 10% or so. This week, My House (#5) got 22.1k points, while Here (#10) got 20.2k points. Hands To Myself (#7) got only 20.5k points! (points according to the new formula). |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Feb 2, 2016 2:21:09 GMT -5
I've just realized something: This new change is gonna absolutely kill Watch Me, which is has been kept afloat by streaming for months. Watch Me points for this week: Under old formula 10 - 1 - 9.0 = 10,930 (would have ranked around #35) Under new formula 10 - 1 - 9.0 = 8,700 It probably still managed to stay in the Hot 100, but it would rank in high 40s now. We will see when the chart is up in a few hours. |
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popmusic1
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Post by popmusic1 on Feb 2, 2016 4:58:55 GMT -5
YOUTUBE WEEKLY CHARTWeek ending 01/28Status: FINAL | TW | Title | Artist | Streams [in m] | Change | | 1 | Sorry | Justin Bieber | 8.163 | +8.7% | | 2 | Love Yourself | Justin Bieber | 6.439 | +18.8% | | 3 | Hello | Adele | 6.434 | +4.8% | | 4 | Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) | Silento | 5.937 | -10.6% | | 5 | White Iverson | Post Malone | 4.301 | +18.5% | | 6 | Hands To Myself | Selena Gomez | 4.217 | +158.7% | | 7 | Don't | Bryson Tiller | 4.158 | +3% | | 8 | What Do You Mean? | Justin Bieber | 4.102 | +9.7% | | 9 | Stressed Out | twenty one pilots | 4.098 | +22.3% | | 10 | Hotline Bling | Drake | 4.045 | -11.3% | | 11 | See You Again (feat. Charlie Puth) | Wiz Khalifa | 3.479 | +11.8% | | 12 | Uptown Funk | Mark Ronson | 3.465 | +3.3% | | 13 | The Hills | The Weeknd | 3.429 | +9.9% | | 14 | Trap Queen | Fetty Wap | 3.376 | +10% | | 15 | 679 | Fetty Wap | 3.323 | +7.7% | | 16 | Say It | Tory Lanez | 3.168 | +0.3% | | 17 | Stitches | Shawn Mendes | 2.991 | -2% | | 18 | Jumpman | Drake | 2.976 | -6.2% | | 19 | Exchange | Bryson Tiller | 2.948 | +5.7% | | 20 | Antidote | Travis Scott | 2.944 | +15.9% | | 21 | Me, Myself & I | G-Eazy | 2.92 | +41.6% | | 22 | Best Friend | Young Thug | 2.832 | +15.9% | | 23 | Down In the DM | Yo Gotti | 2.796 | +5.9% | | 24 | Lean On (feat. MO & DJ Snake) | Major Lazer | 2.624 | -2.6% | | 25 | Betcha Can't Do It Like Me Challenge | DLow | 2.326 | -14.9% | | 26 | Shake It Off | Taylor Swift | 2.265 | +1.6% | | 27 | Like I'm Gonna Lose You | Meghan Trainor | 2.143 | -3.8% | | 28 | Can't Feel My Face | The Weeknd | 2.132 | +8% | | 29 | Where Ya At | Future | 2.108 | +12.2% | | 30 | My Way (Feat. Monty) | Fetty Wap | 2.09 | +8.2% | | 31 | Here | Alessia Cara | 2.087 | +13% | | 32 | Gangnam Style | PSY | 2.058 | +16.4% | | 33 | Same Old Love | Selena Gomez | 2.048 | +17.6% | | 34 | Focus | Ariana Grande | 2.035 | -26.4% | | 35 | Worth It (Dame Esta Noche) | Fifth Harmony | 2.033 | -2.2% | | 36 | Roses | The Chainsmokers | 1.936 | +27% | | 37 | All About That Bass | Meghan Trainor | 1.856 | +10% | | 38 | My House | Flo Rida | 1.819 | +32.4% | | 39 | Where Are Uś Now (with Justin Bieber) | Jack U | 1.783 | +11.1% | | 40 | Blank Space | Taylor Swift | 1.726 | +4.3% |
Hands To Myself with live versions: 4.479m |
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