Billboard Hot 100: 02/20/2016 (PILLOWTALK #1)

[Deleted]

Feb 3, 2016 12:08:54 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Feb 2, 2016 10:43:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Looks like, unless PILLOWTALK pulls a SYA magically staying on top for the next couple months, Stressed Out will be #2 by the March 5th chart. Hopefully LY/SO won't be like the Blank Space/Take Me To Church scenario just over a year ago...

Idk what the BS/TMTC scenario is, but is it like the Uptown Funk/Thinking Out Loud scenario?

similar, except that UF didn't have THAT much more streaming than TOL whereas streaming was the main reason BS blocked TMTC (even though TMTC was doing well in Spotify streams)
And in this case clearly LY has much better streaming than SO for now

[MTSChart21]

Feb 3, 2016 12:32:27 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Feb 3, 2016 12:08:54 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Idk what the BS/TMTC scenario is, but is it like the Uptown Funk/Thinking Out Loud scenario?

similar, except that UF didn't have THAT much more streaming than TOL whereas streaming was the main reason BS blocked TMTC (even though TMTC was doing well in Spotify streams)
And in this case clearly LY has much better streaming than SO for now

ok and thanks for the reply

[popstop]

Feb 3, 2016 12:14:03 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2016/02/03
11. ADELE - When We Were Young: 83.261 (-1.063***)

>:(

[Deleted]

Feb 3, 2016 13:01:41 GMT -5 popstop said:

Feb 3, 2016 12:14:03 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2016/02/03
11. ADELE - When We Were Young: 83.261 (-1.063***)

>:(

for real, wtf is happening here? It can't have already peaked, can it? :/
I hope the Grammy's will be a big help (though I don't want Stressed Out to be at a disadvantage as a result...)

[Deleted]

^ the asterisks indicate inaccuracy based on it entering or leaving a format top 50.

[popmusic1]

YOUTUBE BUILDING CHART
Week ending 02/04
Status: 01/29-02/01

Pos	Title	Artist	Building to date	Projected TW
1	PILLOWTALK	Zayn Malik	4.949	8.660
2	Sorry	Justin Bieber	4.771	8.350
3	Love Yourself	Justin Bieber	3.735	6.536
4	Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) (Spanglish Version)	SilentĂł	3.424	5.992
5	Coldplay - Hymn For The Weekend (Official video)	Coldplay	2.841	4.972
6	Stressed Out	twenty one pilots	2.490	4.358
7	White Iverson	Post Malone	2.331	4.079
8	Don't	Bryson Tiller	2.316	4.053
9	What Do You Mean?	Justin Bieber	2.233	3.908
10	Uptown Funk	Mark Ronson	2.212	3.872
11	Hotline Bling	Drake	2.099	3.673
12	See You Again (feat. Charlie Puth) - Universal Pictures Film Music	Wiz Khalifa	2.019	3.533
13	679	Fetty Wap	1.949	3.410
14	Trap Queen	Fetty Wap	1.939	3.393
15	Hello	Adele	1.928	3.374
16	Me, Myself & I	G-Eazy	1.875	3.282
17	The Hills	The Weeknd	1.821	3.187
18	Say It	Tory Lanez	1.785	3.124
19	Jumpman	Drake	1.771	3.100
20	Africa (Single Version)	Toto	1.727	3.022
21	Stitches	Shawn Mendes	1.708	2.989
22	Exchange	Bryson Tiller	1.685	2.949
23	Best Friend	Young Thug	1.685	2.949
24	Watch Me Work	Tinashe	1.657	2.900
25	Down in the Dm	Yo Gotti	1.607	2.812
26	Antidote	Travis Scott	1.605	2.809
27	2 Phones	Kevin Gates	1.450	2.538
28	Lean On (feat. MĂ? & DJ Snake)	Major Lazer	1.369	2.396
29	My House	Flo Rida	1.334	2.334
30	Betcha Can't Do It Like Me Challenge	DLow	1.327	2.322
31	Really Really	Kevin Gates	1.292	2.261
32	Shake It Off	Taylor Swift	1.290	2.257
33	Hands To Myself	Selena Gomez	1.231	2.155
34	My Way (Feat. Monty)	Fetty Wap	1.205	2.109
35	Roses	The Chainsmokers	1.204	2.108
36	Here	Alessia Cara	1.194	2.090
37	Like I'm Gonna Lose You	Meghan Trainor	1.192	2.086
38	Same Old Love	Selena Gomez	1.152	2.017
39	Where Ya At	Future	1.142	1.999
40	Gangnam Style	PSY	1.129	1.976

[Deleted]

Feb 3, 2016 13:41:14 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

^ the asterisks indicate inaccuracy based on it entering or leaving a format top 50.

yeah but still, it seems to be too early in the chart run for a song that just got sent to radio by such an established artist for it to be already losing >1M in a day...

Side note: that Zayn song is not looking like a guaranteed #1 anymore (that's not to say it won't be #1 this week, but the streaming projection went down by a few million)...

[Deleted]

^  that million isn't accurate though - it could be way off - just like when it went up by 3m.  yes, ideally it would be increasing regardless - but it's still too soon to call this one dunzo on the radio, imo.  

[Deleted]

fantasizing, waxing poetic here... just for fun... humor me...

remember when Alanis did that unplugged performance of You Oughta Know on the Grammys and totally nailed it and everyone went bonkers all over again? no?  well, that happened 20 years ago.  Adele could very possibly have one of those moments with WWWY in another 10 days. Maybe the performance will be so good that the live recording will have a life of its own and get serviced to radio and/or iTunes. stranger things have happened.

anything is possible with this woman and her team. i'm loving the anticipation of what's to come, and the drama of the whole radio sitch.  i just feel like they've got tricks up their sleeve.

any bets on whether or not it goes to streaming on Friday?  or the following Friday?  or never?

[badrobot]

^I anticipate that, if there is a video for WWWY, the song would be released to streaming the same day the video is released.

[Deleted]

^ Next friday? So it's part of Grammy week which would be ideal for maximum impact on the H100? That would make sense.

I was also thinking putting audio streaming up this Friday might entice radio to keep spinning it...  and release the video next week.

[carreramd]

YOUTUBE

Song - Release date - Views
In The Night - 2 months - 23m
Out Of The Woods - 1 month - 48m
Hands To Myself - 2 weeks - 37m
History - 1 week - 28m
Hymn For The Weeknd - 5 days - 23m
PILLOWTALK - 5 days - 40m

ZAYN is killing it.

[85la]

It just simply might be too late for WWWY. It first started to generate interest right around the album release when that live video was uploaded. So many times, labels fail to strike while the iron is hot.

[Ravi]

Feb 3, 2016 14:13:28 GMT -5 popmusic1 said:

YOUTUBE BUILDING CHART
Week ending 02/04
Status: 01/29-02/01

Pos	Title	Artist	Building to date	Projected TW
1	PILLOWTALK	Zayn Malik	4.949	8.660
2	Sorry	Justin Bieber	4.771	8.350
3	Love Yourself	Justin Bieber	3.735	6.536
4	Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) (Spanglish Version)	SilentĂł	3.424	5.992
5	Coldplay - Hymn For The Weekend (Official video)	Coldplay	2.841	4.972
6	Stressed Out	twenty one pilots	2.490	4.358
7	White Iverson	Post Malone	2.331	4.079
8	Don't	Bryson Tiller	2.316	4.053
9	What Do You Mean?	Justin Bieber	2.233	3.908
10	Uptown Funk	Mark Ronson	2.212	3.872
11	Hotline Bling	Drake	2.099	3.673
12	See You Again (feat. Charlie Puth) - Universal Pictures Film Music	Wiz Khalifa	2.019	3.533
13	679	Fetty Wap	1.949	3.410
14	Trap Queen	Fetty Wap	1.939	3.393
15	Hello	Adele	1.928	3.374
16	Me, Myself & I	G-Eazy	1.875	3.282
17	The Hills	The Weeknd	1.821	3.187
18	Say It	Tory Lanez	1.785	3.124
19	Jumpman	Drake	1.771	3.100
20	Africa (Single Version)	Toto	1.727	3.022
21	Stitches	Shawn Mendes	1.708	2.989
22	Exchange	Bryson Tiller	1.685	2.949
23	Best Friend	Young Thug	1.685	2.949
24	Watch Me Work	Tinashe	1.657	2.900
25	Down in the Dm	Yo Gotti	1.607	2.812
26	Antidote	Travis Scott	1.605	2.809
27	2 Phones	Kevin Gates	1.450	2.538
28	Lean On (feat. MĂ? & DJ Snake)	Major Lazer	1.369	2.396
29	My House	Flo Rida	1.334	2.334
30	Betcha Can't Do It Like Me Challenge	DLow	1.327	2.322
31	Really Really	Kevin Gates	1.292	2.261
32	Shake It Off	Taylor Swift	1.290	2.257
33	Hands To Myself	Selena Gomez	1.231	2.155
34	My Way (Feat. Monty)	Fetty Wap	1.205	2.109
35	Roses	The Chainsmokers	1.204	2.108
36	Here	Alessia Cara	1.194	2.090
37	Like I'm Gonna Lose You	Meghan Trainor	1.192	2.086
38	Same Old Love	Selena Gomez	1.152	2.017
39	Where Ya At	Future	1.142	1.999
40	Gangnam Style	PSY	1.129	1.976

I suppose for projecting the weekly views, you simply used the calculation - Views*7/4. However more accurate would be to use the latest day views for further projection....... PILLOWTALK only got 1.7M views in last 2 days...... I think another 2-2.2M views for the remaining 3-day for around 7M views.

[Deleted]

^ yeah I agree with that. Views don't typically follow a straight-line pattern, it's usually a declining curve. I honestly would be willing to bet that PILLOWTALK will be #2 or even #3 perhaps

[Ravi]

Feb 4, 2016 0:16:40 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

^ yeah I agree with that. Views don't typically follow a straight-line pattern, it's usually a declining curve. I honestly would be willing to bet that PILLOWTALK will be #2 or even #3 perhaps

Nah..... I still think PILLOWTALK will be #1...... Love Yourself will be 130M ahead on Airplay.... which would be cancelled out by 115-120k sales lead that PILLOWTALK will have. All it needs to do is stay ahead in streaming. So far, for the week, it is looking like it will be 2M ahead on Spotify and 1M+ on Youtube (and thus 4M overall on streaming).

Summer Sixteen, on the other hand, might not debut in Top-5.

[Deleted]

Wow, did Drake's management monkeys seriously just rob him of that #1 hit yet again by limiting streaming? Given the fact that Summer Sixteen's actually outselling Pillowtalk for the week, I think he could've had it if he had just put the song on youtube and spotify. Now he'll have to hope that his airplay's gonna catch up faster than Zayn's.

[Ravi]

Feb 3, 2016 12:14:03 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2016/02/03

1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 175.573 (-0.015)
2. ADELE - Hello: 165.524 (-2.078)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 164.159 (+1.780***)

So after today's update, Bieber will have Top 2 songs on Airplay. When was the last time two "solo" songs by the same artist occupied the Top-2 positions?

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 1:44:55 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Feb 3, 2016 12:14:03 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2016/02/03

1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 175.573 (-0.015)
2. ADELE - Hello: 165.524 (-2.078)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 164.159 (+1.780***)

So after today's update, Bieber will have Top 2 songs on Airplay. When was the last time two "solo" songs by the same artist occupied the Top-2 positions?

IIRC a few months ago with Can't Feel My Face and The Hills lol

[Ravi]

Feb 4, 2016 1:54:51 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Feb 4, 2016 1:44:55 GMT -5 Ravi said:

So after today's update, Bieber will have Top 2 songs on Airplay. When was the last time two "solo" songs by the same artist occupied the Top-2 positions?

IIRC a few months ago with Can't Feel My Face and The Hills lol

Oh.......... right!!

[popmusic1]

Feb 3, 2016 23:48:14 GMT -5 Ravi said:

I suppose for projecting the weekly views, you simply used the calculation - Views*7/4. However more accurate would be to use the latest day views for further projection....... PILLOWTALK only got 1.7M views in last 2 days...... I think another 2-2.2M views for the remaining 3-day for around 7M views.

Yes, right now projection method is very simply - Views*7/4 but I'm working on special interpolation algorithm. When I implement new method, I'll post notice about that. 

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Feb 3, 2016 15:00:05 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

any bets on whether or not it goes to streaming on Friday?  or the following Friday?  or never?

Never. There's simply no reason for them to do it when she's still moving ~100k albums a week.

[Deleted]

^ I respect your logic and perspective. And if they can achieve a nice peak for WWWY without it, great. And it's entirely possible with a video and the Grammy performance, alone, imo.  I just think there's some level of importance to the chart positions and overall success of her singles, so that may be a potential reason for streaming the song.

Either way, I personally never say never when it comes to this stuff, and certainly won't in this case.

[MTSChart21]

Work just took a hard hit in airplay :)  (-19.288) (-19 positions to #36)

[MTSChart21]

Feb 4, 2016 1:17:19 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

Wow, did Drake's management monkeys seriously just rob him of that #1 hit yet again by limiting streaming? Given the fact that Summer Sixteen's actually outselling Pillowtalk for the week, I think he could've had it if he had just put the song on youtube and spotify. Now he'll have to hope that his airplay's gonna catch up faster than Zayn's.

Ikr, they seriously need to think when they release songs -_-

Zayn has a huge advantage in airplay. Because Summer Sixteen doesn't have any airplay

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 10:08:22 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Work just took a hard hit in airplay :)  (-19.288) (-19 positions to #36)

You seem so happy.  LOL.  That's the rolling effect from the heavy iHeart premiere spins it got last Wednesday.  It actually still had incredible daily growth over yesterday, so by Sunday, it will likely gain back all that it "lost" in the tracking period.

[MTSChart21]

Feb 4, 2016 10:23:01 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Feb 4, 2016 10:08:22 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Work just took a hard hit in airplay :)  (-19.288) (-19 positions to #36)

You seem so happy.  LOL.  That's the rolling effect from the deal it had last Wednesday.  It actually still had incredible growth over yesterday, so by Sunday, it will likely gain back all that it lost.

True. And also, I don't like the song too much, but I guess it's ok.

[popstop]

Feb 4, 2016 10:46:32 GMT -5 Codex said:

What happened with Africa?

I blessed the rains there.

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 10:46:32 GMT -5 Codex said:

What happened with Africa?

You mean why is it charting?  If so...

[jenglisbe]

Feb 3, 2016 22:55:53 GMT -5 85la said:

It just simply might be too late for WWWY. It first started to generate interest right around the album release when that live video was uploaded. So many times, labels fail to strike while the iron is hot.

I guess it depends on their goal (i.e. it could just be album sales), but I agree with you that it feels like the momentum for "WWWY" has come and gone. It was a favorite upon the release of the album and did well with the live video and also the performances from the NBC special and SNL, but that momentum wasn't capitalized on and the song sort of came and went. I think it was a good song for the holidays, too, with families and old friends and even lovers reuniting like is described in the song.

Also, long live Toto!!! I prefer "Hold the Line" and "Rosanna," but "Africa" is a great representation of the 80s :)