Billboard Hot 100: 02/20/2016 (PILLOWTALK #1)

[Deleted]

I just read someone saying that WWWY is available on Apple Streaming now in New Zealand (where it's already Friday), which, if true, makes it seems likely that it's going to have a Friday streaming release on some (or all) streaming platforms worldwide.

[wjr15]

I knew Adele's team wouldn't let her down. Continue slaying the music industry!! 

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

The thing with WWWY is that radio jumped on it as soon as the album came out. Even if it was announced/confirmed as a single right away, it basically became one at that point. I'm surprised it slowed down as much as it did but I do expect it to come on strong after the Grammys, if not before then, with full label support. I'd say the slow-down was more a result of radio jumping the gun than anything else.

[Deleted]

As chart watchers, I think it's easy to have our perceptions affected by daily chart updates, etc. But as many, many situations with songs have proven in the past, the general public's consumption period is much longer than (ours, mine, some of ours, not trying to put thoughts in anyone's heads). WWWY has had exposure and interest since the album was released, true, but with Hello dominating, it's still very much a new record to the general public... and I think they were wise to not double-team with 2 singles (let alone ballads) at the same time. 10 weeks is potentially a very small part in the grand scheme of a promoted single's chart life... and this is just starting to get it's proper promotion as a single. It could easily have another 20+ weeks on the H100 if it properly takes off.

[Daniel Collins]

2016/02/04

*** = dropped or added a format

1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 175.090 (-0.483)
2. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 166.145 (+1.986) ▲
3. ADELE - Hello: 163.889 (-1.635) ▼
4. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 153.391 (+2.830)
5. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 135.050 (-0.113)
6. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 132.324 (-1.843)
7. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 127.182 (-0.981)
8. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 106.781 (-0.692)
9. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 96.392 (+1.488)
10. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 91.717 (-1.360)

11. ADELE - When We Were Young: 84.156 (+0.895)
12. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 80.905 (-1.097)
13. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 80.243 (+0.308) ▲
14. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 80.036 (-1.166) ▼
15. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 73.919 (-0.041)
16. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 73.906 (+0.348)
17. FLO RIDA - My House: 71.487 (+2.636) ▲
18. TAYLOR SWIFT - Out Of The Woods: 67.414 (+0.757) ▲
19. SAM HUNT - Break Up In A Small Town: 66.888 (-1.342)
20. DAYA - Hide Away: 65.843 (+2.710***) ▲

21. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 65.717 (+1.453) ▲
22. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 63.898 (-0.950) ▼
23. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 63.876 (-0.226)
24. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 62.700 (+0.561) ▲
25. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 59.968 (-0.323) ▲
26. KELSEA BALLERINI - Dibs: 58.294 (+0.591) ▲
27. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 58.241 (+0.200) ▲
28. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 58.084 (+1.389) ▲
29. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 58.009 (+1.281) ▲
30. TRAVI$ SCOTT - Antidote: 57.195 (-1.441) ▼

31. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 56.679 (-2.401) ▼
32. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 56.056 (+0.653) ▲
33. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 54.215 (+1.151) ▲
34. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 52.699 (+0.690) ▲
35. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 52.340 (+2.176) ▲
36. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 50.658 (-19.288) ▼
37. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 50.097 (+1.226) ▲
38. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 49.844 (+0.116) ▼
39. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 48.167 (+1.614) ▲
40. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 48.070 (+0.447) ▼

41. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 46.404 (+1.517) ▲
42. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 46.075 (-0.512) ▼
43. SHAWN MENDES & CAMILA CABELLO - I Know What You Did Last...: 45.975 (-0.146***) ▼
44. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 45.445 (+0.233)
45. FETTY WAP - Again: 44.760 (+0.406) ▲
46. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 44.623 (-0.353) ▼
47. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 44.176 (-1.673***) ▼
48. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 43.427 (-0.385***)
49. BRAD PAISLEY - Country Nation: 43.413 (-0.094)
50. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 42.477 (+0.156)

51. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 41.793 (+0.467) ▲
52. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 41.638 (-0.181) ▼
53. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 39.921 (+1.122) ▲
54. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 39.513 (+0.549)
55. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 39.442 (+0.120) ▼
56. J. COLE - No Role Modelz: 38.291 (-0.102) ▲
57. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 38.269 (-0.553) ▼
58. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 37.563 (+0.623) ▲
59. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 37.416 (-0.479) ▼
60. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 37.096 (-0.405) ▼

61. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 36.983 (-0.107) ▼
62. POST MALONE - White Iverson: 35.251 (-0.909)
63. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 32.474 (+0.104) ▲
64. JASON ALDEAN - Gonna Know We Were Here: 32.375 (-0.553) ▼
65. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 32.357 (+0.585) ▲
66. JEREMIH - Oui: 31.843 (+0.424) ▲
67. CHRIS YOUNG - I'm Comin' Over: 31.602 (-0.705) ▼
68. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 31.320 (+0.078) ▲
69. BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 31.255 (-0.964) ▼
70. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 30.856 (-0.119)

71. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 30.151 (+0.862) ▲
72. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 30.059 (+0.500) ▲
73. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 28.704 (+0.461***) ▲
74. DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 28.495 (-1.196) ▼
75. JASON DERULO - Get Ugly: 27.940 (+0.291) ▲

[popstop]

Who was the last person to replace themselves at #1 on the airplay chart?

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 13:52:48 GMT -5 popstop said:

Who was the last person to replace themselves at #1 on the airplay chart?

The Weeknd. He replaced himself at #1 Airplay with Can't Feel My Face & The Hills last year.

It's only happened 8 times in the last 22 years.

[Deleted]

It's official... WWWY is getting an official single release tomorrow on digital and streaming services worldwide. the label is teasing it on social media and they've released the single artwork. And a video is imminent as well.

i'm breathing a sigh of relief that i've not been proven bat-sh*t crazy after all my optimistic yet speculative posts about this over the last few weeks.

It'll get a nice boost on the 2/27 H100 followed by an even bigger boost on the following chart.  Well played. 

[badrobot]

^You really went all-in, lucky the right cards came up!

[kanimal]

Regarding the Kworb estimates...is the assumption that Hits Daily Double's data (200K through Sunday) was wrong?

200K Sunday would seemingly produce a 280K weekly total minimum.

[Deleted]

^ haha. i was confident - only because it's Adele and her label and track record. It made little sense to me to release a 2nd single from a hugely successful album and not fully promote it or at least give it a fair shake. we live in such a fast food world... everything is now now now and next next next. some think its too late or a missed opportunity after a month or two of strong early airplay that slows, yet many songs are on the charts for 6 months to a year these days... so I was like hang on, Hello is still smashing and it's only been 12 weeks. chillax!

anyway... cheers!  i hope it goes all the way.  next round is on me!

[Caviar]

Feb 4, 2016 15:11:53 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

^ haha. i was confident - only because it's Adele and her label and track record. It made little sense to me to release a 2nd single from a hugely successful album and not fully promote it or at least give it a fair shake. we live in such a fast food world... everything is now now now and next next next. some think its too late or a missed opportunity after a month or two of strong early airplay that slows, yet many songs are on the charts for 6 months to a year these days... so I was like hang on, Hello is still smashing and it's only been 12 weeks. chillax!

anyway... cheers!  i hope it goes all the way.  next round is on me!

Exactly. Didn't it take almost six months for "Like I'm Gonna Lose You" to hit top 10?

[Deleted]

^ well, considering LIGLY has been on the H100 for nearly 8 months, probably close to it.

[purplefebruary]

Feb 4, 2016 14:49:28 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

It's official... WWWY is getting an official single release tomorrow on digital and streaming services worldwide. the label is teasing it on social media and they've released the single artwork. And a video is imminent as well.

i'm breathing a sigh of relief that i've not been proven bat-sh*t crazy after all my optimistic yet speculative posts about this over the last few weeks.

It'll get a nice boost on the 2/27 H100 followed by an even bigger boost on the following chart.  Well played. 

Same here! It's good to know that my instincts were right and I wasn't a total idiot after all

[leredlum]

Feb 4, 2016 10:08:22 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Work just took a hard hit in airplay :)  (-19.288) (-19 positions to #36)

On the Canadian airplay chart, it had a 262 spin drop (753 ---> 491), the biggest I've ever seen.

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6866901/zayn-drake-top-10-debuts-hot-100

Zayn & Drake Headed for Top 10 Debuts on Hot 100
2/4/2016 by Gary Trust

"Pillowtalk" & "Summer Sixteen" should each start with hefty sales, with Zayn's song a challenger for No. 1.

Justin Bieber just made headlines by replacing himself atop the Billboard Hot 100 (dated Feb. 13), with "Love Yourself" dethroning "Sorry," but a pair of fellow male stars are gunning for the chart's upper reaches next week.

Former One Direction member Zayn Malik's first solo single, "Pillowtalk" (credited simply to Zayn), appears headed for perhaps 250,000 downloads sold in its first week, according to industry forecasters, while Drake's "Summer Sixteen" could arrive with 210,000-220,000. The former was released Jan. 29 and has already opened atop this week's Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks chart. The latter was released Jan. 30.

Based on such strong sales projections, along with expected streaming and airplay sums, "Pillowtalk" and "Summer Sixteen" each appear headed for top 10 debuts on next week's Hot 100 (dated Feb. 20), with the former almost certain to start in the top five and challenge for No. 1 upon its entrance.

Beyond sales projections (and with the Hot 100 encompassing sales, airplay and streaming), "Pillowtalk" has drawn 5.9 million in all-format radio audience in the first three days of the Hot 100's airplay tracking week, according to Nielsen Music; "Sixteen" has garnered 3.4 million. Based on streaming data collected through Feb. 3, "Pillowtalk" has tallied 17 million U.S. streams for the week; an estimated streaming total for "Sixteen," an Apple Music exclusive, is still being tabulated.

The steamy, atmospheric "Pillowtalk" is from Zayn's debut album Mind of Mine, due March 25. Drake's diss track is not confirmed to appear on his next album, Views From the 6, due in April.

To find out where both songs officially debut on the Hot 100, check Billboard.com Monday (Feb. 8), when highlights of the chart will post. All charts (dated Feb. 20) will update on Billboard.com the following day (Feb. 9).

Additional reporting by Keith Caulfield

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Just bought PILLOWTALK, its no.1 debut is gonna be a blast!

[forg]

My House by Flo Rida is #2 on iTunes, I'm quite amazed with his digital sales staying power.

[jenglisbe]

Feb 4, 2016 18:54:53 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6866901/zayn-drake-top-10-debuts-hot-100

Zayn & Drake Headed for Top 10 Debuts on Hot 100
2/4/2016 by Gary Trust

"Pillowtalk" & "Summer Sixteen" should each start with hefty sales, with Zayn's song a challenger for No. 1.

Justin Bieber just made headlines by replacing himself atop the Billboard Hot 100 (dated Feb. 13), with "Love Yourself" dethroning "Sorry," but a pair of fellow male stars are gunning for the chart's upper reaches next week.

Former One Direction member Zayn Malik's first solo single, "Pillowtalk" (credited simply to Zayn), appears headed for perhaps 250,000 downloads sold in its first week, according to industry forecasters, while Drake's "Summer Sixteen" could arrive with 210,000-220,000. The former was released Jan. 29 and has already opened atop this week's Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks chart. The latter was released Jan. 30.

Based on such strong sales projections, along with expected streaming and airplay sums, "Pillowtalk" and "Summer Sixteen" each appear headed for top 10 debuts on next week's Hot 100 (dated Feb. 20), with the former almost certain to start in the top five and challenge for No. 1 upon its entrance.

Beyond sales projections (and with the Hot 100 encompassing sales, airplay and streaming), "Pillowtalk" has drawn 5.9 million in all-format radio audience in the first three days of the Hot 100's airplay tracking week, according to Nielsen Music; "Sixteen" has garnered 3.4 million. Based on streaming data collected through Feb. 3, "Pillowtalk" has tallied 17 million U.S. streams for the week; an estimated streaming total for "Sixteen," an Apple Music exclusive, is still being tabulated.

The steamy, atmospheric "Pillowtalk" is from Zayn's debut album Mind of Mine, due March 25. Drake's diss track is not confirmed to appear on his next album, Views From the 6, due in April.

To find out where both songs officially debut on the Hot 100, check Billboard.com Monday (Feb. 8), when highlights of the chart will post. All charts (dated Feb. 20) will update on Billboard.com the following day (Feb. 9).

Additional reporting by Keith Caulfield

Interesting. Since that 17 million streaming figure was with a day left, "Pillowtalk" will obviously pass 17 million in streams. What will it likely have to hit to be able to nab #1? "LY" had 16.2 million streams last week when it hit #1 on the Hot 100, so "Pillowtalk" will be well above "LY" in both downloads and streams.

[ml7673]

Top 10 Predictions for next week

#1 Love Yourself
#2 Pillowtalk
#3 Stressed Out
#4 Work
#5 Sorry
#6 Summer Sixteen
#7 Hello
#8 My House
#9 Roses
#10 Hands To Myself
#11 Me Myself & I
#12 Same Old Love
#13 Here
#14 Stiches

[forg]

I think Pillowtalk has a good shot for #1 given that his sales are good, it could be close with Love Yourself

[badrobot]

Pillowtalk for #1, I never cared even one iota about One Direction but for whatever reason I love this track.

[rimetm]

Feb 4, 2016 20:29:36 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Interesting. Since that 17 million streaming figure was with a day left, "Pillowtalk" will obviously pass 17 million in streams. What will it likely have to hit to be able to nab #1? "LY" had 16.2 million streams last week when it hit #1 on the Hot 100, so "Pillowtalk" will be well above "LY" in both downloads and streams.

The problem: airplay. Love Yourself has 132 million AI as of last week and is only gaining. Pillowtalk on the other hand has only a measly 6 million as of a day ago, and looks to only accumulate a total of 12-15 million in a best case scenario. Yes, it'll have a clear sales advantage, but I don't know if that will counteract the closer streaming battle (could get overturned on YouTube) and the giant airplay lead.

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2016 21:15:25 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Feb 4, 2016 20:29:36 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Interesting. Since that 17 million streaming figure was with a day left, "Pillowtalk" will obviously pass 17 million in streams. What will it likely have to hit to be able to nab #1? "LY" had 16.2 million streams last week when it hit #1 on the Hot 100, so "Pillowtalk" will be well above "LY" in both downloads and streams.

The problem: airplay. Love Yourself has 132 million AI as of last week and is only gaining. Pillowtalk on the other hand has only a measly 6 million as of a day ago, and looks to only accumulate a total of 12-15 million in a best case scenario. Yes, it'll have a clear sales advantage, but I don't know if that will counteract the closer streaming battle (could get overturned on YouTube) and the giant airplay lead.

Wow, I knew the points difference between the top 3 and everything else was big, but not THAT big.  At the #9 spot, you've got Rihanna debuting with roughly the same sales as Love Yourself, 2 million streams, and maybe 40 million AI due to a radio deal with 2 days of spins.  Meanwhile, you've got Bieber and TOP, who have a chance at blocking almost anything due to being decently strong on all 3 legs.  Guess this also explains how What Do You Mean and Hotline Bling were able to stay in the top 5 for so long before utterly crashing out of the top 10.

[Au$tin]

Feb 4, 2016 17:41:22 GMT -5 leredlum said:

Feb 4, 2016 10:08:22 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Work just took a hard hit in airplay :)  (-19.288) (-19 positions to #36)

On the Canadian airplay chart, it had a 262 spin drop (753 ---> 491), the biggest I've ever seen.

These charts are rolling, meaning that they take the past week into account. A week ago was the song's debut, which included an airplay deal. This happens with every big release since, like, 2009 when first day radio deals started becoming a popular thing to do.

[jenglisbe]

Feb 4, 2016 21:15:25 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Feb 4, 2016 20:29:36 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Interesting. Since that 17 million streaming figure was with a day left, "Pillowtalk" will obviously pass 17 million in streams. What will it likely have to hit to be able to nab #1? "LY" had 16.2 million streams last week when it hit #1 on the Hot 100, so "Pillowtalk" will be well above "LY" in both downloads and streams.

The problem: airplay. Love Yourself has 132 million AI as of last week and is only gaining. Pillowtalk on the other hand has only a measly 6 million as of a day ago, and looks to only accumulate a total of 12-15 million in a best case scenario. Yes, it'll have a clear sales advantage, but I don't know if that will counteract the closer streaming battle (could get overturned on YouTube) and the giant airplay lead.

Sure, but I was asking how far ahead in streams "Pillowtalk" would need to be. It's going to be well ahead in downloads. Billboard is saying maybe 250k sold, and "LY" sold 116k last week, which was down from the previous week so it could be even less this week. That would mean a lead of 130k or more. And unless "LY" makes a gain in streaming from last week (and it fell 2% in streaming on last week's chart), "Pillowtalk" will be a few million ahead in streams. I would think those two elements together could potentially make up the difference of 130 million impressions to at least make it a race, no?

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

is the pillow talk projection taking into account the acoustic version that went up on iTunes yesterday I wonder? It's at 29 right now, so that's certainly a few thousand copies more than just the explicit and clean versions alone

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Feb 4, 2016 22:20:17 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Feb 4, 2016 17:41:22 GMT -5 leredlum said:

On the Canadian airplay chart, it had a 262 spin drop (753 ---> 491), the biggest I've ever seen.

These charts are rolling, meaning that they take the past week into account. A week ago was the song's debut, which included an airplay deal. This happens with every big release since, like, 2009 when first day radio deals started becoming a popular thing to do.

Hi, Au$tin!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ravi]

Feb 4, 2016 22:39:27 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Feb 4, 2016 21:15:25 GMT -5 rimetm said:

The problem: airplay. Love Yourself has 132 million AI as of last week and is only gaining. Pillowtalk on the other hand has only a measly 6 million as of a day ago, and looks to only accumulate a total of 12-15 million in a best case scenario. Yes, it'll have a clear sales advantage, but I don't know if that will counteract the closer streaming battle (could get overturned on YouTube) and the giant airplay lead.

Sure, but I was asking how far ahead in streams "Pillowtalk" would need to be. It's going to be well ahead in downloads. Billboard is saying maybe 250k sold, and "LY" sold 116k last week, which was down from the previous week so it could be even less this week. That would mean a lead of 130k or more. And unless "LY" makes a gain in streaming from last week (and it fell 2% in streaming on last week's chart), "Pillowtalk" will be a few million ahead in streams. I would think those two elements together could potentially make up the difference of 130 million impressions to at least make it a race, no?

According to the new formula (which I've derived, may not be 100% correct, but should be close), 1M Airplay = 0.9K sales. So 130M Airplay gain would be neutralized by 117k sales, which PILLOWTALK will have. So even if it is ahead by a little margin on streaming, PILLOWTALK would be #1.

Under old chart rule, it would have been close, however. 1M Airplay used to count for 1.2k sales. So a 120k sales lead would have neutralized only 100M airplay lead. Therefore streaming would need to have been higher by 2.7M+. Even then, PILLOWTALK would have been #1, I think, as the streaming gap would be around 4M.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Pillow talk acoustic audio went up on YouTube this morning, obviously hoping to keep his streaming momentum up for week 2