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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2016 18:25:07 GMT -5
So.. There's a chance JT could be on the Hot 100 tomorrow right? The radio update on kworb today has him at 45 million AI , too. I don't think so. Hello didn't even chart after Fri-Sat-Sun airplay. But more than that, Kworb's (Mediabase) audience impressions are always significantly higher than Nielsen/Billboard's. I'd be very surprised if it charted this week. But with that kind of sales estimate, I can see it possibly debuting at #1 on 5/28. EDITED because I didn't mean to imply that it WILL debut at #1, just that it has a chance. |
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on May 8, 2016 18:42:38 GMT -5
So.. There's a chance JT could be on the Hot 100 tomorrow right? The radio update on kworb today has him at 45 million AI , too. I don't think so. Hello didn't even chart after Fri-Sat-Sun airplay. But more than that, Kworb's (Mediabase) audience impressions are always significantly higher than Nielsen/Billboard's. I'd be very surprised if it charted this week. But with that kind of sales estimate, I can def see it debuting at #1 on 5/28. With only 360k of sales, it's gonna need at least 12m streams to be in the ring with One Dance |
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Post by jarhys on May 8, 2016 18:48:55 GMT -5
Mike is BAD , too. I don't think so. Hello didn't even chart after Fri-Sat-Sun airplay. But more than that, Kworb's (Mediabase) audience impressions are always significantly higher than Nielsen/Billboard's. I'd be very surprised if it charted this week. But with that kind of sales estimate, I can def see it debuting at #1 on 5/28. With only 360k of sales, it's gonna need at least 12m streams to be in the ring with One Dance But its airplay would probably reach top 20, its streaming is not bad either. #1 is possible. |
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Post by jenglisbe on May 8, 2016 18:50:08 GMT -5
With only 360k of sales, it's gonna need at least 12m streams to be in the ring with One Dance But its airplay would probably reach top 20, its streaming is not bad either. #1 is possible. It would reach top 20 once the paid airplay of the first day is gone? |
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jarhys
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Post by jarhys on May 8, 2016 18:51:43 GMT -5
But its airplay would probably reach top 20, its streaming is not bad either. #1 is possible. It would reach top 20 once the paid airplay of the first day is gone? I mean the chart next week, 7-8 days might make it happen. |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on May 8, 2016 19:07:54 GMT -5
But its airplay would probably reach top 20, its streaming is not bad either. #1 is possible. It would reach top 20 once the paid airplay of the first day is gone? Have you seen its second day airplay? Yeah, it's eighth day won't be bad at all. |
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Post by House Lannister on May 8, 2016 19:55:39 GMT -5
Predictions: | Rank | Song | Sales | Airplay | Streams | Points | | 1 | One Dance | 185 | 85 | 27.0 | 51,500 | | 2 | Panda | 100 | 60 | 36.0 | 47,100 | | 3 | 7 Years | 80 | 140 | 16.0 | 36,200 | | 4 | I Took A Pill in Ibiza | 65 | 120 | 14.0 | 30,900 | | 5 | Work From Home | 60 | 90 | 16.0 | 29,000 | | 6/7 | Work | 35 | 65 | 19.5 | 26,600 | | 6/7 | Don't Let Me Down | 75 | 70 | 13.5 | 26,600 | | 8 | PILLOWTALK | 35 | 115 | 12.0 | 25,400 | | 9 | This is What You Came For | 125 | 25 | 8.0 | 23,000 |
* "One Dance" is very likely to be the new #1 this week, and that's without any video streams! * ITAPII will get a new peak while WFH should enter Top-10. * "Don't Let Me Down" will enter Top-10 and may enter Top-5 in coming weeks. * TIWYCF should also debut in Top-10. * For #10, there is a crazy fight..... Beyonce's three songs - Formation, Sorry and Hold Up, NO, "H.O.L.Y." and Love Yourself all are looking to get 21-21.5k points. Surprised that a country song has a (slight) chance at a top 10 debut without having crossed over into pop. Also, Drake's first lead number one...nice. |
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Post by Raccoon on May 8, 2016 21:05:27 GMT -5
I'm under the impression that no Drake album songs will chart this week. But since they were available to stream on Apple Music shouldn't they be able too? And that's pretty impressive that he got 245 MILLION streams, because they were all just from Apple Music right
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on May 8, 2016 21:10:53 GMT -5
Is there anyone know if music video sales are counted as a part of streaming or sales? Cuz in my opinion it should carry some weight, though minimal
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2016 21:14:17 GMT -5
I'm under the impression that no Drake album songs will chart this week. But since they were available to stream on Apple Music shouldn't they be able too? And that's pretty impressive that he got 245 MILLION streams, because they were all just from Apple Music right Well, if Apple doesn't report the numbers, they can't count it. Same with the Hotline Bling fail. |
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jtd Thee Stallion
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on May 8, 2016 21:20:19 GMT -5
If Kanye charted I know Drake will, and higher probably.
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Post by Ravi on May 8, 2016 22:20:48 GMT -5
Mike is BAD , too. I don't think so. Hello didn't even chart after Fri-Sat-Sun airplay. But more than that, Kworb's (Mediabase) audience impressions are always significantly higher than Nielsen/Billboard's. I'd be very surprised if it charted this week. But with that kind of sales estimate, I can def see it debuting at #1 on 5/28. With only 360k of sales, it's gonna need at least 12m streams to be in the ring with One Dance The sales are gonna be in 320-350k range depending on how it holds from here. But even with just 320k sales, I see it EASILY being #1 next week. CSTF - 320-60-18.0 = 56,500 One Dance- 160-100-27.0 = 50,300 Panda - 90-70-36.0 = 47,000 |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 8, 2016 22:28:55 GMT -5
I'm under the impression that no Drake album songs will chart this week. But since they were available to stream on Apple Music shouldn't they be able too? And that's pretty impressive that he got 245 MILLION streams, because they were all just from Apple Music right "One Dance" and certainly "Hotline Bling" are available at sources other than Apple Music if I'm not mistaken. |
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Post by Old-school 72 on May 8, 2016 22:41:27 GMT -5
I do hope JT becomes the song of the summer with "CSTF" it is a fun dance song. We need a big change on the charts. Too much hiphop/rap for my taste. I rarely post because of this reason. Now I have a song I stand behind and an artist who deserves to keep the bad songs away from being number 1 for too long.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on May 8, 2016 23:25:02 GMT -5
With only 360k of sales, it's gonna need at least 12m streams to be in the ring with One Dance The sales are gonna be in 320-350k range depending on how it holds from here. But even with just 320k sales, I see it EASILY being #1 next week. CSTF - 320-60-18.0 = 56,500 One Dance- 160-100-27.0 = 50,300 Panda - 90-70-36.0 = 47,000 Where does the 18 million streaming come from? |
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on May 8, 2016 23:26:35 GMT -5
Geez.. CSTF, One Dance & Panda top 3.. How I miss the excellent Work Work Work Work Work Work (no I'm not kidding!)
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 8, 2016 23:31:46 GMT -5
I'm under the impression that no Drake album songs will chart this week. But since they were available to stream on Apple Music shouldn't they be able too? And that's pretty impressive that he got 245 MILLION streams, because they were all just from Apple Music right Well, if Apple doesn't report the numbers, they can't count it. Same with the Hotline Bling fail. Apple Music does report their numbers now, which is how Billboard was able to get the 245 million streaming figure (which includes other streaming sources as well). |
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Juanca
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Post by Juanca on May 9, 2016 0:39:52 GMT -5
Lots of classics this week some years ago... And songs that were successful in more than one version
May 15, 1961 (For the week ending May 20)
01 01 Runaway - Del Shannon (4th and final week at #1)
--> a classic! I first learned of this song in 1987 as the them song of the TV series Crime Story. Actually Del re-recorded the song and it became a #1 hit that year back home in Peru -and in my personal chart
07 05 Blue Moon - The Marcels
--> isn't that a fun and unforgettable intro? :)) love it as well, especially at karaoke ;) and I remember hearing it in the 1980s Werewolf movies :)
May 21, 1966
01 01 Monday, Monday - The Mamas & The Papas (3rd and final week at #1)
-->Another classic!
04 09 When a Man Loves a Woman - Percy Sledge
05 13 A Groovy Kind Of Love - The Mindbenders
--> two songs that would become #1 20+ years later thanks to two opposite vocalists, the subdued Phil Collins and the more boisterous Michael Bolton
May 22, 1971
01 01 Joy To The World - Three Dog Night (6th and final week at #1)
--> Yet another classic (didn't know it was considered a sort of Christmas song here)
02 02 Never Can Say Goodbye - The Jackson 5
--> this went to become Gloria Gaynor's first top 10 hit in the Hot 100 (#9) and the first #1 Dance / Disco song! Later it was also covered by the Communards, which only reached #51 in US but #4 in the UK (and a semi popular hit back home)
07 07 Bridge Over Troubled Water / Brand New Me - Aretha Franklin
--> already a classic by Simon & Garfunkel, reached the top 10 again sung by the Queen.
May 22, 1976
01 03 Silly Love Songs - Wings (1st of 5 weeks at #1)
--> yes, silly, but a rounded pop song :) this was in the top 10 for the decade and in the top 50 of the century back home; love it
[/quote]
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Post by Mike is BAD on May 9, 2016 5:30:47 GMT -5
Geez.. CSTF, One Dance & Panda top 3.. How I miss the excellent Work Work Work Work Work Work (no I'm not kidding!) Well, in like 7 weeks, you will forget Work even existed. It spent it's whole time in the Top 3 at #1. And it will likely leave the charts before autumn comes around. Ok, final predictions, cuz I ain't gonna double post 1. One Dance 2. Panda 3. 7 Years 4. ITAPII 5. WFH (CAN IT PEAK HERE? PLEASE PEAK HERE!) 6. Don't Let Me Down 7. Work 8. PILLOWTALK 9. TIWYCF 10. Formation 11. NØ 12. Love Yourself 13. Hold Up 14. Sorry (Beyoncé, the Bieber one will never reach Top 10 again) 15. H.O.L.Y. (Highest peaking country song this year without turning on the pop side) |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on May 9, 2016 7:21:55 GMT -5
Geez.. CSTF, One Dance & Panda top 3.. How I miss the excellent Work Work Work Work Work Work (no I'm not kidding!) Well, in like 7 weeks, you will forget Work even existed. It spent it's whole time in the Top 3 at #1. And it will likely leave the charts before autumn comes around. Just because people will forget about it, doesn't mean THINKIN BOUT YOU will forget about it. He claimed that he thinks the song is excellent. I mean they are a lot of songs people forgot about that I still love. Geez.. CSTF, One Dance & Panda top 3.. How I miss the excellent Work Work Work Work Work Work (no I'm not kidding!) Well, in like 7 weeks, you will forget Work even existed. It spent it's whole time in the Top 3 at #1. And it will likely leave the charts before autumn comes around. Ok, final predictions, cuz I ain't gonna double post This should've been posted in the Prediction thread instead |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on May 9, 2016 8:38:33 GMT -5
Madonnas give me all your luvin definitely went nowhere after that radio deal. (Frankly, deservedly. If they'd done the same deal for Living for Love, a much better song, perhaps it would've done better.) And more recently, "Focus" by Ariana. It started its audience decline at pop within 3 weeks of its radio deal. A radio deal doesn't mean anything - the song has to stand on its own after the initial spins. You guys are sort of missing the point. And I apologize if it's due to my post not being clear. I'm admittedly having trouble articulating this. Yes, some songs quickly peak or even slightly decline after the deal, but they never go back and start from zero. They always start ahead of the curve. Focus debuted at #31 on pop after its deal. It's not like it then went back to #97 the next week. It was still receiving Top 30-level spins. And it still made a big impact from a Hot 100 airplay points standpoint the following week. Thus, if you're assessing a song's potential Hot 100 debut, you can almost always look at the initial week's airplay as the bare minimum of what it will receive during its first "real" week on the chart. It's very obvious that radio quickly cooled on the Jason Derulo song, as an example. But it got to the pop Top 20 in only a few weeks. It thus would have been futile to say "ignore its initial airplay, this is only because of the deal" because that initial airplay told you what its baseline was going to be on the chart. It's one of the reasons I've stopped looking down on songs that receive 100+ adds after a deal. Yes, maybe they didn't "earn" those adds, but they're going to perform - at least for the first few weeks - like a song that received that many adds. So it makes no sense to dismiss the add count. Granted, part of this is because the songs that receive these "deals" tend to either be really radio-friendly songs or songs from absolute superstars. So radio is ready to automatically start playing them at a high frequency. If you give a day one deal to Kaya Stewart's "In Love With a Boy," it's possible the song truly does fall completely off the earth the following week. |
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Post by The Upper Hand on May 9, 2016 8:59:57 GMT -5
MEDIABASE 05/09
1. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 170.603 (-0.004)
2. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 154.694 (+0.770)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 148.157 (-0.850)
4. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 143.771 (+0.247)
5. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 111.697 (-1.224)
6. FIFTH HARMONY - Work From Home: 110.456 (+1.426)
7. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 104.751 (-1.028)
8. DRAKE - One Dance F/Wizkid & Kyla: 104.705 (+2.742)
9. G-EAZY - Me Myself & I f/Bebe Rexha: 93.135 (-1.257)
10. FLO RIDA - My House: 91.850 (-0.576)
11. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 86.127 (-0.881)
12. THE CHAINSMOKERS – Don’t Let Me Down f/Daya: 80.519 (+1.131)
13. ZARA LARSSON & MNEK - Never Forget You: 79.043 (+0.135)
14. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 78.057 (-0.378)
15. MEGHAN TRAINOR - NO: 73.017 (-5.074)
16. DIERKS BENTLEY – Somewhere On A Beach: 72.882 (+0.757)
17. DESIIGNER - Panda: 72.424 (+0.457)
18. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 69.695 (+0.265) ▲1
19. ARIANA GRANDE - Dangerous Woman: 69.583 (-0.026) ▼1
20. CHRIS YOUNG & CASSADEE POPE - Think Of You: 68.454 (-0.599)
21. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 66.722 (+0.002)
22. DUSTIN LYNCH – Mind Reader: 62.858 (+0.754)
23. DJ SNAKE - Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine: 58.818 (+0.191)
24. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE - Can't Stop The Feeling: 57.052 (+11.736) ▲6
25. BLAKE SHELTON – Came Here To Forget: 56.239 (+0.445) ▼1
26. TIM MCGRAW – Humble And Kind: 55.535 (+0.188) ▼1
27. LUKE BRYAN - Huntin', Fishin' And Lovin' Every Day: 53.087 (+0.192) ▼1
28. THOMAS RHETT - T-Shirt: 52.916 (+0.356) ▼1
29. BRYSON TILLER – Exchange: 49.596 (+0.524) ▼1
30. P!NK – Just Like Fire: 48.195 (+1.424) ▼1
31. KEITH URBAN – Wasted Time: 41.723 (+0.144) ▲1
32. KENNY CHESNEY – Noise: 41.399 (-0.286) ▼1
33. NICK JONAS - Close f/Tove Lo: 39.430 (+0.271) ▲1
34. BELLY – Might Not f/The Weeknd: 39.134 (-0.441) ▼1
35. JASON DERULO – If It Ain’t Love: 35.827 (+0.173)
36. JON PARDI – Head Over Boots: 34.872 (-0.222)
37. KELLY CLARKSON - Piece By Piece: 34.808 (+0.243)
38. CALVIN HARRIS – This Is What You Came For F/Rihanna: 33.955 (+3.721) RE
39. JASON ALDEAN – Lights Come On: 33.630 (+0.620) ▼1
40. FAT JOE & REMY MA – All The Way Up: 32.734 (+0.472) ▼1
ALESSIA CARA – Wild Things: 31.842 (-0.150)
RUTH B – Lost Boy: 31.638 (+0.444)
ERIC CHURCH - Record Year: 31.299 NEW
RIHANNA - Needed Me: 30.460 (+0.725)
O. T. GENASIS – Cut It: 30.028 (-0.108)
KENT JONES - 29.678 NEW
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Church Bells: 28.275 (+1.000)
TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Ride: 28.021 (+0.464)
BEYONCÉ - Sorry: 24.028 (+1.881)
DREEZY – Body f/Jeremih: 21.085 (+0.155)
RIHANNA – Kiss It Better: 17.541 (+0.302)
FLUME – Never Be Like You F/Kai: 16.259 (+0.118)
IGGY AZALEA - Team: 15.054 (+0.080)
GRACE - You Don't Own Me F/G-Eazy: 14.739 (+0.420)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - H.O.L.Y: 14.845 (+1.735)
SIA - Cheap Thrills: 14.448 (+0.729)
PITBULL F/ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Messin' Around: 14.180 (+0.548)
KANYE WEST – Famous: 11.331 (+0.062)
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS - Dark Necessities: 9.684 (+1.709)
BLINK 182 - Bored To Death: 8.838 (+0.504)
ADELE – Send My Love (To Your New Lover): 8.554 (+1.008)
ALICIA KEYS - In Common: 7.935 (+0.702)
ELLIE GOULDING – Army: 5.909 (+0.154)
SELENA GOMEZ - Kill'Em With Kindness: 6.245 (+0.930)
BEBE REXHA – No Broken Hearts f/Nicki Minaj: 3.997 (-0.652)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Me Too: 2.350 (+0.544)
RADIOHEAD - Burn The Witch: 1.747 (+0.314)
ZAYN - Like I Would: 1.002 (-0.054)
ZEDD & KESHA – True Colors: 0.683 (-0.133)
SIMPLE PLAN – Singing In The Rain: 0.569 (-0.001)
GWEN STEFANI - Misery: 0.346 (-0.040)
JENNIFER LOPEZ - Ain't Your Mama: 0.319 (-0.009)
RADIOHEAD - Daydreaming: 0.201 (+0.057)
ARIANA GRANDE - Into You: 0.000
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on May 9, 2016 9:10:27 GMT -5
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on May 9, 2016 9:11:09 GMT -5
2 questions. Where did you find this? How did you post it so quickly? |
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Post by Au$tin on May 9, 2016 9:12:20 GMT -5
Is there anyone know if music video sales are counted as a part of streaming or sales? Cuz in my opinion it should carry some weight, though minimal I'm surprised no one has answered you yet. No, music video sales do not contribute to the Hot 100 currently. Though, most of us agree that what little they amount to should be included if streaming the music video counts. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2016 9:17:37 GMT -5
And more recently, "Focus" by Ariana. It started its audience decline at pop within 3 weeks of its radio deal. A radio deal doesn't mean anything - the song has to stand on its own after the initial spins. Granted, part of this is because the songs that receive these "deals" tend to either be really radio-friendly songs or songs from absolute superstars. So radio is ready to automatically start playing them at a high frequency. If you give a day one deal to Kaya Stewart's "In Love With a Boy," it's possible the song truly does fall completely off the earth the following week. I get what you're saying - I'm just not sure it's really something that makes a big difference in the end. I see it more as part of an A-list single rollout than a head start at radio - mostly because of what you said above, they're going to play it anyway (at least initially)... so of course they won't go back to zero. These are big acts who warrant an hourly "exclusive", so imo, it doesn't make much of a difference in the big picture when it comes to advantage. These exclusives are generally on Fridays and therefore the heavy "deal" spins don't impact the Hot 100 because of the airplay tracking week being different than streaming and sales. While it's hard to say if these songs would do as well at radio without the "deal"... when it comes to success, there's more to the equation than just airplay. People have to like the song and buy and/or stream it for it to make much of an impact. While sales may surge, they likely would have anyway given the popularity of the artist. And to your point about Kaya Stewart - a lot of times these not-so-popular artists have a different kind of paid promo that gets them spins. Can't think of what iHeart calls it, but there have been several songs to garner decent airplay from these types of deals. And songs have charted solely from these paid spins. These deals seem to last much longer than a day, tho. |
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on May 9, 2016 9:21:05 GMT -5
2 questions. Where did you find this? How did you post it so quickly?  |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on May 9, 2016 9:26:02 GMT -5
Granted, part of this is because the songs that receive these "deals" tend to either be really radio-friendly songs or songs from absolute superstars. So radio is ready to automatically start playing them at a high frequency. If you give a day one deal to Kaya Stewart's "In Love With a Boy," it's possible the song truly does fall completely off the earth the following week. I get what you're saying - I'm just not sure it's really something that makes a big difference in the end. I see it more as part of an A-list single rollout than a head start at radio - mostly because of what you said above, they're going to play it anyway (at least initially)... so of course they won't go back to zero. These are big acts who warrant an hourly "exclusive", so imo, it doesn't make much of a difference in the big picture when it comes to advantage. These exclusives are generally on Fridays and therefore the heavy "deal" spins don't impact the Hot 100 because of the airplay tracking week being different than streaming and sales. While it's hard to say if these songs would do as well at radio without the "deal"... when it comes to success, there's more to the equation than just airplay. People have to like the song and buy and/or stream it for it to make much of an impact. But the impact is the fact that the song is almost definitely going to receive just as many - if not more - spins throughout the tracking week that does count. As an example, "Can't Stop The Feeling" debuted at #22 on Mediabase pop during the week in which it received the deal. It is currently #14 on the building chart (based on receiving the fourteenth-most spins Sunday, which is day one of the new Mediabase tracking week). So while it may not have a single day as big as last Friday, it's probably going to receive more spins throughout the entire tracking week than it did in its first two days (three days for Hot 100). Or at least come very close. What I'm saying is that there is almost never a case in which a "deal song" receives considerably more airplay in its first three days than it does in the subsequent week. So from a Hot 100 standpoint, the deal *does* seem correlated to (if not causal to) big radio points during the first week that matters. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2016 9:28:52 GMT -5
^ the heavy hourly exaggerated spins don't count, that's all i'm saying. what stations do on the days, weeks, months that follow has nothing to do with the deal. but i don't want to frustrate you - i do understand what you're saying. we just see it differently.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on May 9, 2016 9:42:41 GMT -5
Is there anyone know if music video sales are counted as a part of streaming or sales? Cuz in my opinion it should carry some weight, though minimal I'm surprised no one has answered you yet. No, music video sales do not contribute to the Hot 100 currently. Though, most of us agree that what little they amount to should be included if streaming the music video counts. At least part of why they dont contribute though is because Apple doesn't report the sales figures for music videos. If they did, I think they would be an argument to make to count them as sales the same as a download sale. |
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