Billboard Hot 100: 06/04/2016

[Deleted]

May 18, 2016 13:50:48 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

technically speaking, Drake is a singer as well...

That's the thing - there's maybe an assumption it would be a rap verse.  That seems unlikely and not what I'd want.  An added verse with Drake singing the male "response" would slay me.

While I don't see her doing a the remix thing, either... I'd also never rule it out.  It probably wouldn't be your typical tacked-on guest verse feature.

This is getting to be a tangent. I'll digress into the Adele thread.

[nibs]

Is Dayas Sit Still, Look Pretty already an official single? I think if it's not then it flopped so bad. I' m hoping send my love gets #1 and Ellies new keep on dancin' top-10

[nibs]

May 17, 2016 17:03:05 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

May 17, 2016 14:37:10 GMT -5 awesomecharts said:

The remix w Sean Paul or the original?

THE ORIGINAL ALL THE WAY

And yes the original, although I like the remix too. Sales are pretty good, now hoping it rises on airplay...

[Mike is BAD]

May 18, 2016 14:51:35 GMT -5 nibs said:

Is Dayas Sit Still, Look Pretty already an official single? YES I think if it's not then it flopped so bad. I' m hoping send my love gets #1 NOT FOR A WHILE and Ellies new keep on dancin' top-10 NO WAY

[Deleted]

May 18, 2016 14:51:35 GMT -5 nibs said:

Is Dayas Sit Still, Look Pretty already an official single? I think if it's not then it flopped so bad. I' m hoping send my love gets #1 and Ellies new keep on dancin' top-10

We're getting Army not Keep On Dancin
That is becoming a single elsewhere
IMO I say drop both and let Don't Need Nobody take its place. 

[Mike is BAD]

MTSChart21, today's AI updates were CRAZZYY! 

[lyhom]

May 18, 2016 14:51:35 GMT -5 nibs said:

Is Dayas Sit Still, Look Pretty already an official single? I think if it's not then it flopped so bad. I' m hoping send my love gets #1 and Ellies new keep on dancin' top-10

yes, although if it's going to do much it probably will be after "don't let me down" peaks

[Dylan :)]

May 18, 2016 15:51:58 GMT -5 lyhom said:

May 18, 2016 14:51:35 GMT -5 nibs said:

Is Dayas Sit Still, Look Pretty already an official single? I think if it's not then it flopped so bad. I' m hoping send my love gets #1 and Ellies new keep on dancin' top-10

yes, although if it's going to do much it probably will be after "don't let me down" peaks

I agree, nearly top 30 on CHR with already having a song in the top 5, #70-#90 on iTunes (seems to go up and down a lot) and with no promo or video.

[DJ General]

Yeah there have been rumors that Drake will sing and have a small feature on the track for send my love

[Au$tin]

May 18, 2016 20:45:30 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Yeah there have been rumors that Drake will sing and have a small feature on the track for send my love

They're pretty dodgy rumors, though. Adele wanted to do a remix for Hotline Bling. Drake said he'd love to work with Adele. I don't know how that translates into "Send My Love" being the one with the remix. If anything, I feel there's going to be a remix of a Drake song with Adele on it instead of the other way around. I would not be surprised in the slightest if sometime an Adele featured "Hotline Bling" happened.

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

*** indicates that the song dropped or added a format

[moore746]

What are the chances of JT getting #1 again this week?

[Deleted]

May 19, 2016 9:31:22 GMT -5 moore746 said:

What are the chances of JT getting #1 again this week?

Well, the Kworb sales estimate got raised by quite a bit (another 200k+ week), and its closing the airplay gap. Depending on the streaming, I'd say it has a pretty good chance.

[Deleted]

yeah I was gonna say, with more than 200k sales this week (which is more than most of us expected), I'm not too convinced that Drake will return to #1 next week (that's not to say he won't; he may or may not IMO)
Drake is also getting very big airplay updates even though they're not quite as big as those of the JT song

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

The competition for no.1 these weeks are just ridiculous. If Work is released 2-3 months later then it wouldn't have even gotten 3 weeks at no.1, not to mention the intensely lucky 9 weeks

[Gary]

A year ago, people were complaining about the opposite, on how it was not such a quick turnaround.

[Deleted]

I like this turnaround. couple of weeks for panda, one for drake, and justin taking over after (but then again he could be #1 for 10 or more weeks for all we know, so maybe it's glory short lived)

[Deleted]

May 19, 2016 14:44:52 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

The competition for no.1 these weeks are just ridiculous. If Work is released 2-3 months later then it wouldn't have even gotten 3 weeks at no.1, not to mention the intensely lucky 9 weeks

To call Work "lucky" is really pushing it, and fundamentally misses the point of the Hot 100 chart.

Objectively, in all but 2 of Work's 9 weeks at #1, it had a decent to sizable lead over the #2 song... which is all that matters.  A chart or a song or a point total cannot be compared to other weeks in a "would have" context, because that's not what was.  Anything "would have" been something else under different circumstances - this goes without saying.  But it's a guessing game as to what the result would have been, because there is no way of knowing what would have happened then, even knowing what we know now. Just because something faired really well this week doesn't necessarily mean it would have faired as well had it been released 3 months ago.  

[Au$tin]

But luck still does play in. "Work" just so happened to be released when it didn't have much competition. Had it been released now and have gotten the exact same amount of points every week, it wouldn't have had nine weeks at number one. "Work" was lucky in the sense that at the time of its release, there wasn't anything big enough to really challenge it. "One Dance" currently hit a small bit of bad luck with Justin Timberlake releasing a song that blew up out of the gate. But in the same breath "Can't Stop the Feeling" has bad luck because it has to compete with "One Dance." There's always a MUCH bigger picture to look at. So many people here look at stats and see "Work" is Rihanna's second longest running number one and the flip claiming it shouldn't be or doesn't deserve it or some nonsense. Well, it does deserve it because it had more points than any other song for those specific nine weeks. Maybe "Disturbia" or "What's My Name?" would have had more if they were released at different times or other songs that were released at the same time as those had not been! That's where the luck comes in. The chart shows how popular a song is RELATIVELY to the other songs out at the same time, not how popular the song is overall.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

The last time we had such a strong top 3 was Royals/Roar/Wrecking Ball back in 2013

[Deleted]

May 19, 2016 15:15:05 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

But luck still does play in. "Work" just so happened to be released when it didn't have much competition. Had it been released now and have gotten the exact same amount of points every week, it wouldn't have had nine weeks at number one. "Work" was lucky in the sense that at the time of its release, there wasn't anything big enough to really challenge it. "One Dance" currently hit a small bit of bad luck with Justin Timberlake releasing a song that blew up out of the gate. But in the same breath "Can't Stop the Feeling" has bad luck because it has to compete with "One Dance." There's always a MUCH bigger picture to look at. So many people here look at stats and see "Work" is Rihanna's second longest running number one and the flip claiming it shouldn't be or doesn't deserve it or some nonsense. Well, it does deserve it because it had more points than any other song for those specific nine weeks. Maybe "Disturbia" or "What's My Name?" would have had more if they were released at different times or other songs that were released at the same time as those had not been! That's where the luck comes in. The chart shows how popular a song is RELATIVELY to the other songs out at the same time, not how popular the song is overall.

The majority of what you said is in line with what I was conveying.  I just don't agree with this notion of "would have" when it's impossible to know that.  We can't change time and move things around and guarantee they'd have the same (or different) results.  

To say that Work didn't have much competition is only true if we compare it to other songs during different weeks - different circumstances - which was my ultimate point.  We can all have our opinions and assumptions about what would have happened, even knowing what we know now -  but to refer to it as "luck" is problematic, imo.  It's ALL circumstantial. Every single week of every single year for every single song.  So pulling one song out of the pack and saying it's "lucky" due to a lack of "competition" is what I can't get behind.

Just starts to feel like people expressing their disdain for a song and/or an artist in the form of lessening their achievement by calling it luck.  I'm sure we could go back and there would be hundreds of examples of #1 songs that were "lucky" in this same context.  It doesn't matter.  It's one song that had the most points in any given week, period.  It's a huge can of worms if it's taken for anything more than that.

[MTSChart21]

May 19, 2016 15:27:30 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

The last time we had such a strong top 3 was Royals/Roar/Wrecking Ball back in 2013

Are you talking about your opinion of the top 3 or the actual strength of the songs in the top 3? If so, what about Hello/Sorry/Hotline Bling on the week that Hello and Sorry debuted?

[Au$tin]

May 19, 2016 16:06:28 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

May 19, 2016 15:15:05 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

But luck still does play in. "Work" just so happened to be released when it didn't have much competition. Had it been released now and have gotten the exact same amount of points every week, it wouldn't have had nine weeks at number one. "Work" was lucky in the sense that at the time of its release, there wasn't anything big enough to really challenge it. "One Dance" currently hit a small bit of bad luck with Justin Timberlake releasing a song that blew up out of the gate. But in the same breath "Can't Stop the Feeling" has bad luck because it has to compete with "One Dance." There's always a MUCH bigger picture to look at. So many people here look at stats and see "Work" is Rihanna's second longest running number one and the flip claiming it shouldn't be or doesn't deserve it or some nonsense. Well, it does deserve it because it had more points than any other song for those specific nine weeks. Maybe "Disturbia" or "What's My Name?" would have had more if they were released at different times or other songs that were released at the same time as those had not been! That's where the luck comes in. The chart shows how popular a song is RELATIVELY to the other songs out at the same time, not how popular the song is overall.

The majority of what you said is in line with what I was conveying.  I just don't agree with this notion of "would have" when it's impossible to know that.  We can't change time and move things around and guarantee they'd have the same (or different) results.  

To say that Work didn't have much competition is only true if we compare it to other songs during different weeks - different circumstances - which was my ultimate point.  We can all have our opinions and assumptions about what would have happened, even knowing what we know now -  but to refer to it as "luck" is problematic, imo.  It's ALL circumstantial. Every single week of every single year for every single song.  So pulling one song out of the pack and saying it's "lucky" due to a lack of "competition" is what I can't get behind.

...but that's exactly what it is. Circumstance is luck. Sure, there is strategy to timing of release and there's promotion to help increase exposure of a song, but pure luck also comes into play. Of course we don't the could haves, but that's not what anyone is saying here. We're saying if it was released and did the EXACT some thing and all the other songs out now did the EXACT same thing as they're doing now, then its chart run would be different. That's where the luck comes in. It was lucky that that one scenario out of the nearly limitless scenarios that could have happened isn't the one that played out.

Just like you're lucky for not eating that piece of meat you might have choked on yesterday had you have eaten it. But you didn't. Out of the limitless amount of things that you could have possibly eaten, the one that would have killed you you just so happened to not eat. That's the luck we're referring to. You can eat that same piece of meat today and not choke to death because that's just how it panned out today. So you're lucky for eating it today rather than yesterday. I know that's a weird analogy, but it gets the point across.

We're saying the same things, we're just not fully agreeing with the terminology because of the way we're looking at it.

[Deleted]

I'm sure we could go back and there would be hundreds of examples of #1 songs that were "lucky" in this same context. It doesn't matter. It's one song that had the most points in any given week(s), period. It's a huge can of hypothetical worms if it's taken for anything more than that.

Where do we draw the line?  It goes into absurdity territory eventually... like "Uptown Funk sure was lucky it wasn't released when Hello was released!"  I mean... really?  It could be said about anything - rendering it pointless to me - which was the whole reason I even brought it up. 

[badrobot]

It would be interesting if they actually published some sort of point total each week, the same way they do for "album-equivalent units" for the BB200. Because then you could more concretely say which songs genuinely were "bigger" in comparison to each other.

[Gary]

May 19, 2016 16:28:48 GMT -5 badrobot said:

It would be interesting if they actually published some sort of point total each week, the same way they do for "album-equivalent units" for the BB200. Because then you could more concretely say which songs genuinely were "bigger" in comparison to each other.

Can't really do that either.

Unless they were released at the same time.

Comparing across time periods is not an exact science

[Mike is BAD]

May 18, 2016 22:39:24 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

May 18, 2016 20:45:30 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Yeah there have been rumors that Drake will sing and have a small feature on the track for send my love

They're pretty dodgy rumors, though. Adele wanted to do a remix for Hotline Bling. Drake said he'd love to work with Adele. I don't know how that translates into "Send My Love" being the one with the remix. If anything, I feel there's going to be a remix of a Drake song with Adele on it instead of the other way around. I would not be surprised in the slightest if sometime an Adele featured "Hotline Bling" happened.

Charlie Puth and Kehlani remixed Hotline Bling (and it failed miserably, it sucked)

[Deleted]

May 19, 2016 18:17:31 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

May 18, 2016 22:39:24 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

They're pretty dodgy rumors, though. Adele wanted to do a remix for Hotline Bling. Drake said he'd love to work with Adele. I don't know how that translates into "Send My Love" being the one with the remix. If anything, I feel there's going to be a remix of a Drake song with Adele on it instead of the other way around. I would not be surprised in the slightest if sometime an Adele featured "Hotline Bling" happened.

Charlie Puth and Kehlani remixed Hotline Bling (and it failed miserably, it sucked)

if it has Charlie Puth, I'm not surprised tbh.

[Mike is BAD]

Ravi, where do you think ITAPII will position? Cuz I think 4/5, competing with 7 Years.

[Au$tin]

May 19, 2016 18:17:31 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

May 18, 2016 22:39:24 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

They're pretty dodgy rumors, though. Adele wanted to do a remix for Hotline Bling. Drake said he'd love to work with Adele. I don't know how that translates into "Send My Love" being the one with the remix. If anything, I feel there's going to be a remix of a Drake song with Adele on it instead of the other way around. I would not be surprised in the slightest if sometime an Adele featured "Hotline Bling" happened.

Charlie Puth and Kehlani remixed Hotline Bling (and it failed miserably, it sucked)

...okay?