rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Jul 18, 2016 0:26:48 GMT -5
Kworb forecasts are in. Looks like something like this will happen;
Make Me
80k sales
2m streams
20m AI (Nielsen)
Rise
120k sales
3m streams
10m AI (Nielsen)
So Make Me could get somewhere in the top 30 and Rise maybe a top 20? Or am I estimating streams way off?
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Ravi
Charting
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Posts: 420 
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Post by Ravi on Jul 18, 2016 1:04:37 GMT -5
Kworb forecasts are in. Looks like something like this will happen; Make Me 80k sales 2m streams 20m AI (Nielsen) Rise 120k sales 3m streams 10m AI (Nielsen) So Make Me could get somewhere in the top 30 and Rise maybe a top 20? Or am I estimating streams way off? Yeah... your streams are way too low.... I think Rise has a decent shot at Top-10 debut, while Make Me will also debut in Top-20. BTW Cheap Thrills is looking to get that #1 if the OD video isn't released in next couple of days. |
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stanr
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Post by stanr on Jul 18, 2016 2:21:45 GMT -5
what is the current Billboard Hot 100 Formula?
My prediction: Make Me will enter top 15, while rise probably at the lower top 10.
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Enigma.
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Posts: 14,170
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Post by Enigma. on Jul 18, 2016 4:31:21 GMT -5
Billboard's prediction for Make Me... is far too optimistic. It has a minor shot for top 20 but it's no way bigger than H.O.L.Y. that reached #20 when released (digital sales: 125k)
It all comes down to the competition around those positions.
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Post by mrchartknowitall on Jul 18, 2016 8:31:43 GMT -5
Kworb forecasts are in. Looks like something like this will happen; Make Me 80k sales 2m streams 20m AI (Nielsen) Rise 120k sales 3m streams 10m AI (Nielsen) So Make Me could get somewhere in the top 30 and Rise maybe a top 20? Or am I estimating streams way off? Yeah... your streams are way too low.... I think Rise has a decent shot at Top-10 debut, while Make Me will also debut in Top-20. BTW Cheap Thrills is looking to get that #1 if the OD video isn't released in next couple of days. THANK YOU ! was hoping rise could bag a top 10 debut! The nbc video at 10 million views in 3 days |
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Post by Mike is BAD on Jul 18, 2016 8:41:11 GMT -5
Neither songs are debuting this week, but yes for 8/6.
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jenglisbe
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Posts: 35,611
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Post by jenglisbe on Jul 18, 2016 8:49:19 GMT -5
Neither songs are debuting this week, but yes for 8/6. Ha, right. This is where the delaying of starting a new chart thread hurts. |
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Post by mrchartknowitall on Jul 18, 2016 8:53:08 GMT -5
Neither songs are debuting this week, but yes for 8/6. Ha, right. This is where the delaying of starting a new chart thread hurts. Of course ... Next Monday !! Today, I'm all about Adele getting that top 10 ha |
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
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Post by MTSChart21 on Jul 18, 2016 10:08:14 GMT -5
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Ravi
Charting
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Posts: 420
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Post by Ravi on Jul 18, 2016 10:33:12 GMT -5
The see-saw of OD/CSTF atop Radio Song continues....
6/11: OD
6/18: CSTF
6/25: CSTF
7/2: CSTF
7/9: OD
7/16: CSTF
7/23: CSTF
7/30: OD (most likely, will be announced in a few hours)
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felipe
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Posts: 3,058
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Post by felipe on Jul 18, 2016 10:35:49 GMT -5
Neither songs are debuting this week, but yes for 8/6. Ha, right. This is where the delaying of starting a new chart thread hurts. Well, as soon as the new chart week begins - on Fridays - there could be a new thread to discuss the chart referring to that week. I don't see why many people are against it. It makes no sense discussing Katy Perry or Britney on the 07/30 thread. |
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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 18, 2016 10:51:19 GMT -5
"Make Me" will debut higher than "Pretty Girls" for sure. I'd expect it to stick around a bit longer too.
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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 18, 2016 10:51:37 GMT -5
"Rise" will for sure debut in the Top 20, and possibly the Top 10 too.
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 13,029
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Post by Dylan :) on Jul 18, 2016 13:03:12 GMT -5
#97 Zara Larsoon - Lush Life
#35 Charlie Puth feat. Selena Gomez - We Don't Talk Anymore
#33 Ariana Grande - Into You (gains in all metrics)
#29 Fifth Harmony feat. Fetty Wap - All In My Head (Flex)
#28 Beyoncé - Sorry
#26 Flume feat. Kai - Never Be Like You
#15 Meghan Trainor - Me Too (gains)
#10 Adele - Send My Love (To Your New Lover)
#9 Kent Jones - Don't Mind (down on radio, Gary says may have peaked)
#8 Desiigner - Panda (flop harder, #1 on SS, 13 weeks tying with Wrecking Ball and Fancy)
#7 Rihanna - Needed Me (26th top ten on RS)
#6 Twenty One Pilots - Ride
#5 The Chainsmokers feat. Daya - Don't Let Me Down
#4 Calvin Harris // Rihanna - This Is What You Came For (#1 on Hot Dance Songs)
#3 Sia feat. Sean Paul - Cheap Thrills (AG x6, most weeks since Happy, Gary said close to #2 this week and possibly #1 next week)
#2 Justin Timberlake - Can't Stop The Feeling!
#1 Drake feat. WizKid & Kyla - One Dance
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Ravi
Charting
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Posts: 420
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Post by Ravi on Jul 18, 2016 13:30:21 GMT -5
Fantastic for Cheap Thrills and Ride, which managed to beat TIWYCF and NM respectively.
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Post by Mike is BAD on Jul 18, 2016 13:32:15 GMT -5
Ravi, got any early projections for 8/6?
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bigbertha
Gold Member
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Posts: 696
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Post by bigbertha on Jul 18, 2016 13:37:03 GMT -5
Mess at both Rihanna songs being jumped over.
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Gary
Diamond Member
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Posts: 45,889
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Post by Gary on Jul 18, 2016 13:42:33 GMT -5
And for JUST the 32nd time in all of Hot 100 chart history dating back to 1958, a song has a double digit run at #1
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Post by Leaf on Jul 18, 2016 13:44:47 GMT -5
Lush Life finally debuts  |
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
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Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Jul 18, 2016 13:47:26 GMT -5
Ok, I do only LIKE Cheap Thrills and I think it's already a bit annoying, but since I know it's going #1 anyways (and I told you so), I'd rather it take over next week and stop One Dance from extending its run at #1. I mean, 10 weeks is more than enough for an okay/good song like One Dance.
At least One Dance stayed long enough to have a longer run at #1 than Work, but (like I said) now is definitely time for One Dance to give up the top spot.
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Post by Mike is BAD on Jul 18, 2016 13:47:47 GMT -5
Lush Life finally debuts I know, when it should've 20 weeks ago. |
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Jul 18, 2016 13:47:57 GMT -5
After debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 nine weeks ago, becoming just the 26th single to start on top in the chart's history, Justin Timberlake's "Can't Stop the Feeling!" ranks at No. 2 (for a fifth straight week). It spends a 10th week at No. 1 on Digital Songs (92,000, down 6 percent), encompassing its entire run on the chart. "Feeling" is just the eighth title to top Digital Songs for at least 10 weeks and the first since Mark Ronson's "Uptown Funk!," featuring Bruno Mars, led for a record-tying 13 weeks in 2015; Flo Rida's "Low," featuring T-Pain, first set the mark with 13 weeks at No. 1 on Digital Songs in 2007-08. "Feeling" is the second song to spend its first 10 weeks on Digital Songs at No. 1, joining The Black Eyed Peas' "Boom Boom Pow," which logged its first 10 weeks on the chart at the summit in 2009.
Incredible! What a legend.
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Ravi
Charting
Joined: February 2015
Posts: 420
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Post by Ravi on Jul 18, 2016 13:50:39 GMT -5
Ravi , got any early projections for 8/6? Get ready for a new #1 (unless Drake releases the video) 1. Cheap Thrills (Currently have it at ~2k lead, so feeling pretty confident) 2. One Dance 3/4 CSTF 3/4 TIWYCF 5. DLMD 6/7 Ride 6/7 Needed Me 8 Panda 9-11 Don't Mind 9-11 Send My Love 9-11 Rise It will be interesting to see if Rise can debut in Top-10... |
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Jul 18, 2016 13:51:05 GMT -5
#97 Zara Lars son - Lush Life #39 D.R.A.M. feat. Lil Yachty - Broccoli#35 Charlie Puth feat. Selena Gomez - We Don't Talk Anymore #34 DJ Khaled feat. Jay-Z & Future - I Got the Keys#33 Ariana Grande - Into You (gains in all metrics) #29 Fifth Harmony feat. Fetty Wap - All In My Head (Flex) #28 Beyoncé - Sorry #26 Flume feat. Kai - Never Be Like You #24 Ariana Grande - Dangerous Woman#20 Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better
#19 Drake ft. Rihanna - Too Good
#16 Drake - Controlla
#15 Meghan Trainor - Me Too (gains) #10 Adele - Send My Love (To Your New Lover) #9 Kent Jones - Don't Mind (down on radio, Gary says may have peaked) #8 Desiigner - Panda (flop harder, #1 on SS, 13 weeks tying with Wrecking Ball and Fancy) #7 Rihanna - Needed Me (26th top ten on RS) #6 Twenty One Pilots - Ride #5 The Chainsmokers feat. Daya - Don't Let Me Down #4 Calvin Harris // Rihanna - This Is What You Came For (#1 on Hot Dance Songs) #3 Sia feat. Sean Paul - Cheap Thrills (AG x6, most weeks since Happy, Gary said close to #2 this week and possibly #1 next week) #2 Justin Timberlake - Can't Stop The Feeling! #1 Drake feat. WizKid & Kyla - One Dance Source 1: www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/7439135/drake-one-dance-hot-100-10th-weekSource 2: Source 3: So glad to see "Lush Life" finally debut after weeks and weeks of being on the Bubbling Under chart. |
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Post by Leaf on Jul 18, 2016 13:52:44 GMT -5
What is the tracking week for streaming? Wondering how much of an impact the One Dance video could have depending on when it is released, if it comes out this week.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Jul 18, 2016 13:53:31 GMT -5
What is the tracking week for streaming? Wondering how much of an impact the One Dance video could have depending on when it is released, if it comes out this week. Same as sales. Friday through Thursday. |
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Envoirment
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Posts: 13,709
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Post by Envoirment on Jul 18, 2016 13:57:20 GMT -5
So happy to see "Send Your Love (To Your New Lover)" top 10 and "Cheap Thrills" up to #3 - with a good shot at #1 in the coming weeks!! The discount was a great move by her label.  |
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Gary
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Posts: 45,889
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Post by Gary on Jul 18, 2016 14:07:26 GMT -5
The double digit run paragraph that they put up each time this happens, I hope changes soon.
...just the 32nd time
32nd of 1055 songs or top 3% longest runs in chart history
...longest chart run since Adele topped the chart for 10 weeks with 'Hello'
All true... but the implication is that this is still a rare thing
(Same comments about the #1 debuts thing)
An actual rare statistic involving Drake
Drake (Views), Santana (supernatural), Whitney Houston (Bodyguard) and Adele (25) are the only instances in chart history of double runs for both the album and single
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Jul 18, 2016 14:40:19 GMT -5
Points for Drake and Sia:
One Dance:
Last Week (7/23): 39,366
This Week (7/30): 37,261
Cheap Thrills:
Last Week (7/23): 31,066
This Week (7/30): 33,827
At the rate both songs are moving, I think Sia can do it!
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 13,029
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Post by Dylan :) on Jul 18, 2016 14:55:18 GMT -5
Great hold for Dangerous Woman!
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