Billboard Hot 100: 10/08/2016

[Mike is BAD]

Meanwhile where will Forever Country and Starboy debut?

[badrobot]

Starboy, much like Perfect Illusion, Rise, Make Me, etc., sounds pretty underwhelming as a new single.

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

Songs with *** dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

[Au$tin]

"Cold Water" and possibly "Closer" will pass "Send My Love (To Your New Lover)" in airplay tomorrow.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

6-11 should be extremely close in airplay Monday.. the end of the tracking week.

[divasummer]

Anyword on why The Weekend decided to release his song on a thurs?
I know it's not a big deal but I would think the 1 day of sales and the few days of airplay will make debut next week?
It probably won't be that great of one but maybe they know it doesn't matter in the long run.
I was thinking it was a sign that another big release was on the way but I don't see one.

[jayhawk1117]

Sept 23, 2016 6:27:10 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

Meanwhile where will Forever Country and Starboy debut?

I'm thinking 11 for Forever Country. Starboy should be similar

[jayhawk1117]

Sept 23, 2016 11:47:24 GMT -5 divasummer said:

Anyword on why The Weekend decided to release his song on a thurs?
I know it's not a big deal but I would think the 1 day of sales and the few days of airplay will make debut next week?
It probably won't be that great of one but maybe they know it doesn't matter in the long run.
I was thinking it was a sign that another big release was on the way but I don't see one.

He wanted to be different

[flextamcsignals]

*Sees Different for Girls drop*
Welp, this is why we're seeing less and less country songs on the year-end list.

[Leaf]

Sept 23, 2016 11:47:24 GMT -5 divasummer said:

Anyword on why The Weekend decided to release his song on a thurs?
I know it's not a big deal but I would think the 1 day of sales and the few days of airplay will make debut next week?
It probably won't be that great of one but maybe they know it doesn't matter in the long run.
I was thinking it was a sign that another big release was on the way but I don't see one.

Maybe he wanted to come for that My Life Would Suck Without You record. (not really) 

Well, one lyric in the song is "I come alive in the fall time" and it was released on the first day of fall. Coincidence?

[taylor]

Sept 23, 2016 12:02:34 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Sept 23, 2016 6:27:10 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

Meanwhile where will Forever Country and Starboy debut?

I'm thinking 11 for Forever Country. Starboy should be similar

Will Starboy debut this week? If it does it'll be in the lower half.

[Deleted]

there's no way FC is debuting in the top ten. It has very little airplay and streaming so 100k sales just isn't gonna cut it. I would say even top 20 isn't really a lock (though definitely a possibility).
Starboy, on the other hand, could have a top 10 debut next week (10/15) it's getting views on Vevo (I don't see any official audio on the YouTube channel) because it actually has a radio deal (and in just one day is already WAY ahead of FC in airplay) and is doing very well in streaming, not just sales.

In this era, a big sales week (unless it's HUGE like that of "Can't Stop the Feeling!" in it's first week, or even like 200k sales, which FC does not have) is not enough for a top 10 debut unless it's accompanied by a decent amount of streaming. We've already established that

[MTSChart21]

Sept 23, 2016 12:10:04 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

*Sees Different for Girls drop*
Welp, this is why we're seeing less and less country songs on the year-end list.

It's also because more people use streaming nowadays. Streaming is not usually a strong point for country songs, so they suffer from that.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Sept 23, 2016 8:19:45 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Starboy, much like Perfect Illusion, Rise, Make Me, etc., sounds pretty underwhelming as a new single.

I totally disagree. Make Me and Perfect Illusion are both decent songs, and like I said, Starboy is one of the best songs of the year. Its production is almost perfect and it's so solid that I was afraid it's gonna let me down at some point but it didn't. The only thing against it is probably the melancholy synth in the chorus right after "I'm a ************* starboy" which makes it depressing.
But still, it's VERY good material. Better than other outstanding hit songs this year like Closer, I Took a Pill in Ibiza, Stressed Out, etc, and better than overplayed Drake and Justin Bieber songs combined

[MTSChart21]

Sept 23, 2016 12:36:41 GMT -5 taylor said:

Sept 23, 2016 12:02:34 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I'm thinking 11 for Forever Country. Starboy should be similar

Will Starboy debut this week? If it does it'll be in the lower half.

That is an interesting question.

I estimate it gets 30k sales, 25m (Nelsen) AI, and about 1.5m (maybe 2m) streams

So, using sales/9, airplay/10000, and streams/1200... it should get about 7k points, which is definitely enough for a debut. It should debut maybe like 5-10 positions outside the top 50.

[Deleted]

I think Forever Country will debut at #16 on 10/8 and Starboy will debut at #8 on 10/15

[atg]

Sept 23, 2016 11:47:24 GMT -5 divasummer said:

Anyword on why The Weekend decided to release his song on a thurs?

Because the weeknd likes Thursdays. He made a mixtape that's called Thursday and in a bunch of his other songs he mentions the mixtape

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2016 14:16:15 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I think Forever Country will debut at #16 on 10/8 and Starboy will debut at #8 on 10/15

never mind, Starboy will debut on 10/8 in the bottom half of the chart and jumping to #8 next week

[areyoureadytojump]

New chart from HITS:

hitsdailydouble.com/streaming_songs

Streaming Songs Chart

Date: 09/23/2016
Status: Final

LW TW Artist / Album Label Streams

-- 1
THE CHAINSMOKERS
CLOSER
COLUMBIA 22,050,209 --
-- 2
MAJOR LAZER
COLD WATER
DEF JAM 11,036,997 --
-- 3
D.R.A.M.
BROCCOLI
#1EPICCHECK 10,328,936 --
-- 4
TWENTY ONE PILOTS
HEATHENS
WMG 9,963,023 --
-- 5
DJ SNAKE
LET ME LOVE YOU
INTERSCOPE 9,729,048 --
-- 6 DRAKE
ONE DANCE
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 9,228,965 --
-- 7 DRAKE
TOO GOOD
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 8,665,342 --
-- 8 RIHANNA
NEEDED ME
ROC NATION 7,711,091 --
-- 9 THE CHAINSMOKERS
DON'T LET ME DOWN
COLUMBIA 7,481,594 --
-- 10 ARIANA GRANDE
SIDE TO SIDE
REPUBLIC 7,215,818 --
-- 11 ROB $TONE
CHILL BILL
RCA 6,785,506 --
-- 12 DRAKE
CONTROLLA
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 6,394,329 --
-- 13 HAILEE STEINFELD & GREY
STARVING
REPUBLIC 6,369,452 --
-- 14 YOUNG THUG & TRAVIS SCOTT
PICK UP THE PHONE
EPIC 5,948,985 --
-- 15 TWENTY ONE PILOTS
RIDE
FUELED BY RAMEN 6,141,400 --
-- 16 CHANCE THE RAPPER
NO PROBLEM
CHANCE THE RAPPER 5,901,945 --
-- 17 WIZ KHALIFA, LIL WAYNE, IMAGINE DRAGONS
SUCKER FOR PAIN
WMG 5,955,304 --
-- 18 CALVIN HARRIS
THIS IS WHAT YOU CAME FOR
COLUMBIA 5,877,262 --
-- 19 ARIANA GRANDE
INTO YOU
REPUBLIC 5,849,502 --
-- 20 SHAWN MENDES
TREAT YOU BETTER
ISLAND 5,844,928 --
-- 21 CALVIN HARRIS
MY WAY
COLUMBIA 5,669,830 --
-- 22 CHARLIE PUTH
WE DON'T TALK ANYMORE
WMG 5,556,432 --
-- 23 SIA
CHEAP THRILLS
RCA 5,396,924 --
-- 24 GNASH
I HATE U, I LOVE U
WMG 5,518,598 --
-- 25 TORY LANEZ
LUV
INTERSCOPE 5,477,127 --
-- 26 SIA
THE GREATEST
RCA 5,416,142 --
-- 27 FLUME
NEVER BE LIKE YOU
MOM & POP 5,220,803 --
-- 28 DESIIGNER
TIIMMY TURNER
DEF JAM 5,125,655 --
-- 29 MARTIN GARRIX, BEBE REXHA
IN THE NAME OF LOVE
LEGACY 5,297,898 --
-- 30 DJ KHALED
FOR FREE
EPIC 4,886,139 --
-- 31 KIIARA
GOLD
WMG 5,029,558 --
-- 32 COLDPLAY
HYMN FOR THE WEEKEND
PARLOPHONE 4,976,046 --
-- 33 21 SAVAGE & METRO BOOMIN
X
SLAUGHTER GANG 4,710,221 --
-- 34 TRAVI$ SCOTT
GOOSEBUMPS
EPIC 4,424,094 --
-- 35 MARC E. BASSY
YOU & ME
REPUBLIC 4,716,649 --
-- 36 LIL UZI VERT
MONEY LONGER
WMG 4,375,877 --
-- 37 AMINÉ
CAROLINE
REPUBLIC 4,453,583 --
-- 38 DESIIGNER
PANDA
DEF JAM 4,363,454 --
-- 39 YOUNG M.A
OOOUUU
M.A. MUSIC 4,173,845 --
-- 40 KUNGS & COOKIN' ON 3 BURNERS
THIS GIRL (KUNGS VS COOKIN' ON 3 BURNERS)
REPUBLIC 4,346,924 --
-- 41 FIFTH HARMONY
ALL IN MY HEAD (FLEX)
EPIC 4,093,107 --
-- 42 ADELE
SEND MY LOVE (TO YOUR NEW LOVER)
XL/COLUMBIA 3,978,521 --
-- 43 FUTURE
LOW LIFE
EPIC 3,960,959 --
-- 44 KANYE WEST
FATHER STRETCH MY HANDS PT. 1
DEF JAM 3,892,968 --
-- 45 DRAKE
POP STYLE
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 3,838,237 --
-- 46 RAE SREMMURD
SET THE ROOF
INTERSCOPE 3,750,621 --
-- 47 ALESSIA CARA
SCARS TO YOUR BEAUTIFUL
DEF JAM 3,964,891 --
-- 48 DRAKE
CHILDS PLAY
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 3,650,499 --
-- 49 RIHANNA
WORK
ROC NATION 3,707,345 --
-- 50 DRAKE
STILL HERE
YMCMB/REPUBLIC 3,759,724 --

[Verisimilitude]

Very helpful, though I wish it included YouTube too.

[MTSChart21]

Sept 23, 2016 15:50:20 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

New chart from HITS:

hitsdailydouble.com/streaming_songs

What is that chart based off of? (probably something different than what Billboard's streams chart is based off of because Closer is not gonna fall in streams by 18M in just 1 week)

[Verisimilitude]

On demand streaming only (without YouTube).

[Enigma.]

This Rae Sremmurd era is such a mess, Set the Roof is the highest charting streaming song but it's not any of their singles. Black Beatles is the new single instead.

[Golden Bluebird]

Wow. The sales and streaming for "Starboy" are pretty damn great. Not "Closer" great, but still great.

Could this mean Daft Punk could have their first #1 hit (not necessarily next week but possibly in some other week)? If so, I'm pretty excited.

[jarhys]

Sept 24, 2016 3:45:16 GMT -5 Golden Bluebird said:

Wow. The sales and streaming for "Starboy" are pretty damn great. Not "Closer" great, but still great.

Could this mean Daft Punk could have their first #1 hit (not necessarily next week but possibly in some other week)? If so, I'm pretty excited.

Also, Starboy's airplay is rising fast. It could be a contender for next #1.

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

Songs with *** dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

[badrobot]

Sept 23, 2016 13:30:56 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Sept 23, 2016 8:19:45 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Starboy, much like Perfect Illusion, Rise, Make Me, etc., sounds pretty underwhelming as a new single.

I totally disagree. Make Me and Perfect Illusion are both decent songs, and like I said, Starboy is one of the best songs of the year. Its production is almost perfect and it's so solid that I was afraid it's gonna let me down at some point but it didn't. The only thing against it is probably the melancholy synth in the chorus right after "I'm a ************* starboy" which makes it depressing.
But still, it's VERY good material. Better than other outstanding hit songs this year like Closer, I Took a Pill in Ibiza, Stressed Out, etc, and better than overplayed Drake and Justin Bieber songs combined

You're mixing what you like with what is successful. I could've been clearer in my post, as I was focusing on their chart potential -- none of the songs I listed sound like smash hits, and that surprises me since they're all from artists who have had enormous success and have typically been better able to release singles that can immediately catapult them up the charts.

You like Starboy, but do you hear it and think it will instantly be huge with millions of other people? I could totally be wrong (The Hills was a complete surprise hit to me, so The Weeknd is particularly hard to predict), but it seems like part of a weird trend lately of big artists coming back with singles that aren't setting the charts on fire.

[Deleted]

Sept 24, 2016 10:37:05 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Sept 23, 2016 13:30:56 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

I totally disagree. Make Me and Perfect Illusion are both decent songs, and like I said, Starboy is one of the best songs of the year. Its production is almost perfect and it's so solid that I was afraid it's gonna let me down at some point but it didn't. The only thing against it is probably the melancholy synth in the chorus right after "I'm a ************* starboy" which makes it depressing.
But still, it's VERY good material. Better than other outstanding hit songs this year like Closer, I Took a Pill in Ibiza, Stressed Out, etc, and better than overplayed Drake and Justin Bieber songs combined

You're mixing what you like with what is successful. I could've been clearer in my post, as I was focusing on their chart potential -- none of the songs I listed sound like smash hits, and that surprises me since they're all from artists who have had enormous success and have typically been better able to release singles that can immediately catapult them up the charts.

You like Starboy, but do you hear it and think it will instantly be huge with millions of other people? I could totally be wrong (The Hills was a complete surprise hit to me, so The Weeknd is particularly hard to predict), but it seems like part of a weird trend lately of big artists coming back with singles that aren't setting the charts on fire.

I completely disagree. My personal feelings toward the song aside, it sounds like the type of song that would really click with audience. It sounds like some of the Random Access Memories tracks that had potential IMO...

[allow that]

Sept 24, 2016 10:37:05 GMT -5 badrobot said:

You like Starboy, but do you hear it and think it will instantly be huge with millions of other people? I could totally be wrong (The Hills was a complete surprise hit to me, so The Weeknd is particularly hard to predict), but it seems like part of a weird trend lately of big artists coming back with singles that aren't setting the charts on fire.

"Starboy" became only the 4th song to hit 2 million streams on Spotify and is already doing phenomenally on iTunes. We don't have to predict whether or not it will be instantly huge with millions of other people. It already is.

[badrobot]

I hadn't seen the Spotify data but it was already falling on iTunes without having hit #1 when I checked kworb.

As I said, I could be wrong! I wouldn't have predicted One Dance or Work would've been huge either.