Billboard Hot 100: 10/08/2016

[MTSChart21]

Oh, I forgot to mention the AI update for Calvin Harris' "My Way"

Here it is: #77 (-20) CALVIN HARRIS My Way: 25.040 (-5.789)

[atg]

Sept 24, 2016 11:10:23 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I hadn't seen the Spotify data but it was already falling on iTunes without having hit #1 when I checked kworb.

As I said, I could be wrong! I wouldn't have predicted One Dance or Work would've been huge either.

It's not falling it's kinda being pushed back from #1 due to closer and forever country

[badrobot]

I'm already changing my mind on Starboy, ha!

I've been trying to think through the commonality among the bigger #1s this year and it seems like being midtempo, sort of danceable but not clubby, is dominating (Work, One Dance, Closer all seem to fit that).

i thought Starboy was a bit "subtle" but it actually is very similar to those other hits.

[MTSChart21]

Sept 24, 2016 13:38:02 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I'm already changing my mind on Starboy, ha!

I've been trying to think through the commonality among the bigger #1s this year and it seems like being midtempo, sort of danceable but not clubby, is dominating (Work, One Dance, Closer all seem to fit that).

i thought Starboy was a bit "subtle" but it actually is very similar to those other hits.

I actually thought the same at first. I thought it wouldn't be a #1 but maybe a top 10... then I realized it's already doing really well on radio and streaming and should also do well in sales.

[Mike is BAD]

Sept 24, 2016 14:40:19 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Sept 24, 2016 13:38:02 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I'm already changing my mind on Starboy, ha!

I've been trying to think through the commonality among the bigger #1s this year and it seems like being midtempo, sort of danceable but not clubby, is dominating (Work, One Dance, Closer all seem to fit that).

i thought Starboy was a bit "subtle" but it actually is very similar to those other hits.

I actually thought the same at first. I thought it wouldn't be a #1 but maybe a top 10... then I realized it's already doing really well on radio and streaming and should also do well in sales.

Can you do the Ravi style predictions?

[MTSChart21]

Sept 24, 2016 19:43:19 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

Sept 24, 2016 14:40:19 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

I actually thought the same at first. I thought it wouldn't be a #1 but maybe a top 10... then I realized it's already doing really well on radio and streaming and should also do well in sales.

Can you do the Ravi style predictions?

georgetherunner314 is doing the predictions

[Mike is BAD]

Sept 24, 2016 19:56:43 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Sept 24, 2016 19:43:19 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

Can you do the Ravi style predictions?

georgetherunner314 is doing the predictions

When?

[MTSChart21]

Sept 24, 2016 19:57:06 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

Sept 24, 2016 19:56:43 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

georgetherunner314 is doing the predictions

When?

I don't know. I'll start doing my predictions just in case he can't do them for some reason.

[Leo ✔]

I forget about this thread.
I love to see Hold Up and 80s mercedes climb!!

[georgetherunner314]

Predictions:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Closer	175	130	39.5	65,300
2	Heathens	90	95	21.0	37,000
3	Cold Water	45	120	20.5	34,100
4/5	Let Me Love You	45	70	15.0	24,500
4/5	Cheap Thrills	30	130	9.5	24,300
6	Treat You Better	30	110	10.5	23,100
7	Broccoli	30	30	19.0	22,200
8	Don't Let Me Down	25	70	14.0	21,400
9	We Don't Talk Anymore	45	65	11.0	20,700
10-12	This Is What You Came For	20	85	11.0	19,900
10-12	Ride	25	80	11.0	19,900
10-12	Needed Me	15	75	12.5	19,600

Notes:

• The top 3 are all set as they have big gaps between one another and this week's #4 will have very low points compared to the last few weeks.
• Let Me Love You should stand ahead of Cheap Thrills as I had to round down many of the former's numbers down. I made a mistake on LMLY (miscounted the YT streams, thanks to MTS for allowing me to see it). It should have closer to 14.5M streams putting it slightly below Cheap Thrills (200 points with rounding), but still ahead by 200 without so I'll leave it as I think the total point value is more accurate this way. Should be close for #4 between the two of them now though.
• Broccoli should jump 12-7 while WDTA will jump 13-9 while losing in overall points lol.
• Needed Me should be much closer in points to Ride and TIWYCF without rounding and it'll be a toss up between them to see who can get #10 this week.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

I think it's a typo. This is what you came for should have about 18,800 points not 19,900 based on your calculation

[georgetherunner314]

Sept 25, 2016 1:53:54 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

I think it's a typo. This is what you came for should have about 18,800 points not 19,900 based on your calculation

Whoops! Airplay for it was supposed to be 85m rather than 75m. It has now been corrected.

[Mike is BAD]

What about Forever Country and Starboy?

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

Songs with *** dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

[MTSChart21]

Sept 25, 2016 7:29:06 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

What about Forever Country and Starboy?

Here are my predictions for those 2 songs:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
~23	Forever Country	100	5	5	15,800
~50	Starboy	30	35	2	8,500

- So, Forever Country could debut in the top 20, but I don't think it will.
- Meanwhile, Starboy is looking like it could debut in the top 50! :)

[Leo ✔]

Yes!!! Starving at 75 😍

[Mike is BAD]

And just like that Cold Water is blocked from the airplay #1

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

October 2, 1961 (For the week ending October 7)

01 01 Take Good Care Of My Baby - Bobby Vee (3rd and final week at #1)
02 02 The Mountain's High - Dick & Dee Dee
03 04 Crying - Roy Orbison
04 13 Hit The Road, Jack - Ray Charles
05 06 Little Sister - Elvis Presley
06 03 Michael - The Highwaymen
07 12 Mexico - Bob Moore
08 16 You Must Have Been a Beautiful Baby - Bobby Darin
09 05 Does Your Chewing Gum Lose Its Flavor - Lonnie Donegan
10 14 Bristol Stomp - The Dovells


October 8, 1966

01 01 Cherish - The Association (3rd and final week at #1)
02 07 Reach Out I'll Be There - The Four Tops
03 06 96 Tears - ? & The Mysterians
04 04 Black Is Black - Los Bravos
05 03 Beauty Is Only Skin Deep - The Temptations
06 18 Last Train To Clarksville - The Monkees
07 10 Cherry, Cherry - Neil Diamond
08 02 You Can't Hurry Love - The Supremes
09 15 Psychotic Reaction - Count Five
10 12 I've Got You Under My Skin - The Four Seasons


October 9, 1971

01 01 Maggie May / Reason To Believe - Rod Stewart (2nd of 5 weeks at #1)
02 02 Go Away Little Girl - Donny Osmond
03 04 Superstar - The Carpenters
04 03 The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down - Joan Baez
05 09 Yo-Yo - The Osmonds
06 10 Do You Know What I Mean - Lee Michaels
07 06 Uncle Albert / Admiral Halsey - Paul & Linda McCartney
08 05 Ain't No Sunshine - Bill Withers
09 12 If You Really Love Me - Stevie Wonder
10 14 Sweet City Woman - The Stampeders


October 9, 1976

01 03 A Fifth Of Beethoven - Walter Murphy & The Big Apple Band (1st and only week at #1)
02 01 Play That Funky Music - Wild Cherry
03 05 Lowdown - Boz Scaggs
04 04 Disco Duck (Part 1) - Rick Dees & His Cast Of Idiots
05 08 If You Leave Me Now - Chicago
06 06 Devil Woman - Cliff Richard
07 10 Still The One - Orleans
08 02 I'd Really Love To See You Tonight - England Dan & John Ford Coley
09 09 (Shake, Shake, Shake) Shake Your Booty - K.C. & The Sunshine Band
10 14 She's Gone - Daryl Hall & John Oates

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

October 10, 1981

01 01 Endless Love - Diana Ross & Lionel Richie (9th and final week at #1)
02 02 Arthur's Theme (Best That You Can Do) - Christopher Cross
03 03 Stop Draggin' My Heart Around - Stevie Nicks w/Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers
04 04 Who's Crying Now - Journey
05 11 For Your Eyes Only - Sheena Easton
06 07 Step By Step - Eddie Rabbitt
07 09 Start Me Up - The Rolling Stones
08 13 Private Eyes - Daryl Hall & John Oates
09 08 Urgent - Foreigner
10 10 Hold On Tight - ELO


October 11, 1986

01 03 When I Think Of You - Janet Jackson (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 04 Don't Forget Me (When I'm Gone) - Glass Tiger
03 06 Two Of Hearts - Stacey Q
04 07 Throwing It All Away - Genesis
05 09 Typical Male - Tina Turner
06 01 Stuck With You - Huey Lewis & The News
07 12 Heartbeat - Don Johnson
08 02 Friends & Lovers - Gloria Loring & Carl Anderson
09 14 True Colors - Cyndi Lauper
10 05 Dreamtime - Daryl Hall


October 12, 1991

01 03 Emotions - Mariah Carey (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 Good Vibrations - Marky Mark & The Funky Bunch feat. Loleatta Holloway
03 04 Do Anything - Natural Selection
04 02 I Adore Mi Amor - Color Me Badd
05 06 Romantic - Karyn White
06 07 Something To Talk About - Bonnie Raitt
07 09 Hole Hearted - Extreme
08 05 Love Of a Lifetime - Firehouse
09 08 Motownphilly - Boyz II Men
10 12 Everybody Plays The Fool - Aaron Neville


October 5, 1996

01 01 Macarena (Bayside Boys Mix) - Los Del Rio (10th of 14 weeks at #1)
02 02 I Love You Always Forever - Donna Lewis
03 03 It's All Coming Back To Me Now - Celine Dion
04 04 Twisted - Keith Sweat
05 05 C'Mon N' Ride It (The Train) - The Quad City DJ's
06 06 Change The World - Eric Clapton
07 09 Where Do You Go - No Mercy
08 07 Loungin' - LL Cool J feat. Total
09 11 How Do U Want It / California Love - 2Pac feat. K-Ci & JoJo
10 08 You're Makin' Me High / Let It Flow - Toni Braxton

[Deleted]

Sept 25, 2016 9:15:32 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Sept 25, 2016 7:29:06 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

What about Forever Country and Starboy?

Here are my predictions for those 2 songs:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
~23	Forever Country	100	5	5	15,800
~50	Starboy	30	35	2	8,500

- So, Forever Country could debut in the top 20, but I don't think it will.
- Meanwhile, Starboy is looking like it could debut in the top 50! :)

pretty sure Forever Country will have more than 5M airplay. More like 20-25M AI. But other than that, looking pretty solid!

[MTSChart21]

Sept 25, 2016 11:55:26 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Sept 25, 2016 9:15:32 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Here are my predictions for those 2 songs:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
~23	Forever Country	100	5	5	15,800
~50	Starboy	30	35	2	8,500

- So, Forever Country could debut in the top 20, but I don't think it will.
- Meanwhile, Starboy is looking like it could debut in the top 50! :)

pretty sure Forever Country will have more than 5M airplay. More like 20-25M AI. But other than that, looking pretty solid!

Forever Country is at 9.8M AI on kworb. I predict it to end with 10-11M on kworb, so I multiplied 10.5 by .7 (which seems to be a common ratio for country songs), and got 7.35M, I decided to round that down to 5, which equals out the rounded up streaming.

Btw, the streams were rounded up from 4.9M. Edit: Well, it could actually get around 5.1M-5.2M because of the streaming services outside of YT and Spotify.

Go ahead and round its airplay to 10M, and that should be good. So, 16,300 points.

[Deleted]

Oh I thought it as higher than that on airplay

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback

October 6, 2001

01 01 Fallin' - Alicia Keys (5th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 I'm Real - Jennifer Lopez feat. Ja Rule
03 03 Where The Party At - Jagged Edge feat. Nelly
04 04 Hit 'Em Up Style (Oops!) - Blu Cantrell
05 08 Family Affair - Mary J. Blige
06 06 It's Been Awhile - Staind
07 05 U Remind Me - Usher
08 09 Let Me Blow Ya Mind - Eve feat. Gwen Stefani
09 10 Izzo (H.O.V.A.) - Jay-Z
10 07 Someone To Call My Lover - Janet Jackson


October 7, 2006

01 01 SexyBack - Justin Timberlake (5th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 02 Money Maker - Ludacris feat. Pharrell
03 07 How To Save a Life - The Fray
04 04 London Bridge - Fergie
05 05 Lips Of An Angel - Hinder
06 06 Chasing Cars - Snow Patrol
07 03 Too Little Too Late - JoJo
08 08 Chain Hang Low - Jibbs
09 15 Pullin' Me Back - Chingy feat. Tyrese
10 10 Buttons - The Pussycat Dolls feat. Snoop Dogg


October 8, 2011

01 01 Moves Like Jagger - Maroon 5 feat. Christina Aguilera (4th and final week at #1)
02 02 Someone Like You - Adele
03 03 Pumped Up Kicks - Foster The People
04 04 Party Rock Anthem - LMFAO feat. Lauren Bennett & Goonrock
05 05 Stereo Hearts - The Gym Class Heroes feat. Adam Levine
06 06 Lighters - Bad Meets Evil feat. Bruno Mars
07 08 Cheers (Drink To That) - Rihanna
08 10 You And I - Lady Gaga
09 07 You Make Me Feel... - Cobra Starship feat. Sabi
10 25 Sexy And I Know It - LMFAO

16 NE We Found Love - Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris


October 10, 2015

01 01 The Hills - The Weeknd (2nd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 What Do You Mean? - Justin Bieber
03 03 Can't Feel My Face - The Weeknd
04 09 Hotline Bling - Drake
05 04 Watch Me (Whip/Nae Nae) - Silento
06 07 679 - Fetty Wap feat. Remy Boyz
07 06 Locked Away - R. City feat. Adam Levine
08 05 Good For You - Selena Gomez feat. A$AP Rocky
09 08 Cheerleader - OMI
10 13 Wildest Dreams - Taylor Swift

[atg]

Sept 25, 2016 10:53:30 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

And just like that Cold Water is blocked from the airplay #1

Cold water is being like Thinking Out Loud (Being blocked from #1 in every category)

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

Songs with *** dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R.I.P. This Girl :(

[Leo ✔]

Yay Starving at #75
RIP This Girl :C
And RIP Mama Said, thanks God

MTSChart21 you posted the AI of yesterday

[MTSChart21]

Sorry, I posted the wrong update (yesterday's update), lol. I'll fix that.

EDIT: Fixed.

[Harx]

100. Lockjaw
91. Cancer
50. Pick Up The Phone
42. Perfect Illusion (15-42)  RIP, didn't deserve to flop this hard 
40. Starboy (DEBUT)
34. The Greatest (24-34)
31. Starving
24. My Way (DEBUT)
21. Forever Country (DEBUT)
20. Into You (17-20)
19. i hate u i love u (23-19)
18. Side To Side (19-18)
11. Ride (9-11)  :'(
10. This Is What You Came For (7-10)
9. We Don't Talk Anymore (13-9) (NEW PEAK)
8. Broccoli (12-8) (NEW PEAK)
7. Don't Let Me Down (5-7)
6. Treat You Better (8-6) (NEW PEAK) 
5. Cheap Thrills (4-1) (#1 ON RADIO)
4. Let Me Love You (6-4) (NEW PEAK) 
3. Cold Water (=)
2. Heathens (=)
1. Closer (=) (#1 STREAMING, #1 SALES)

Make Me is gone

[Dylan :)]

Ughh.. Broccoli

[bigbertha]

It's really time for Don't Let Me Down and This Is What You Came For to go. They've been in the top 10 since late April.