Billboard Hot 100: 6/9/2018

[rimetm]

It's Memorial Day weekend, so the charts haven't received an initial reveal yet, but we're well underway the streaming and sales periods, and have begun the radio one, so here goes...

Streaming

Lucid Dreams is the new big thing, as it storms up all major formats. In addition, Apple and Spotify are loaded with tracks from A$AP Rocky and Pusha T, the latter of whom benefits from some sort of feud. Of course, I'd be remiss not to mention the new dominant elephant in the room: Drake's I'm Upset, which debuts atop Apple Music and is doing okay on YouTube along with the mostly-hiding-from-the-internet Duppy Freestyle.

Sales

In My Blood benefits from a discount to a strong sales week, but has gotten its thunder stolen by the new Drake single I'm Upset. Psycho rocks major gains from a discount as well. The only new release aside from Drake that might make a splash on the main chart is High Hopes, the next promo single from Panic at the Disco's latest project.

Radio

In a deflating radio environment, The Middle continues to lose its lead, but without a viable candidate for dethroning: amid a horde of songs losing audience faster than it, the first gainer is Psycho, which would need to make up about 25 million more audience to intercept and pass The Middle, which could take a month. Alone is still a song to watch out for as it continues healthy gains, and One Kiss becomes a contender for future Pop Radio leader, while I Like It begins revving up to reap the benefits of the new music video as the top gaining song currently not benefitting from a format addition/shift.

Hot 100 Predictions

If Nice for What isn't leading the 6/2 chart, it should return to the top for this one; This is America's only gaining on radio, and I'm Upset isn't on enough platforms to leverage a lead (and the one platform we do have stats for, sales, is rather weak, barely keeping a lead over In My Blood). Lucid Dreams should challenge for the top 30, No Tears Left to Cry should return to the top 5, and 3 or so tracks from both Pusha and Rocky should make the charts.

[hunterquigley]

If Psycho is on discount in the ITunes Store and continues it’s dominance over Nice for What in radio, could it finally overtake its number two peak and get to number one?

[Deleted]

How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because it’s becoming so irrelevant.

[jenglisbe]

May 28, 2018 20:54:58 GMT -5 @pete said:

How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because it’s becoming so irrelevant.

I doubt they’ll get rid of it, but naturally it will become almost non-existent as sales becomes less and less. I mean, i assume physical single sales still count, but not many songs have a physical single.

[fhas]

May 28, 2018 20:17:28 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Hot 100 Predictions

No Tears Left to Cry should return to the top 5

Humm... #7 at best (I'm being extremely optimistic).

Radio: +7% (May 27 vs. May 20)
Spotify: +1% (May 25-27 vs. May 18-20)
YouTube: -3% (May 25 vs. May 18)

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Digital number ones in this decade (non-debut songs)

May 26 2018 - This Is America (50k)
May 27 2017 - Despacito (104k)
June 4 2016 - Can't Stop The Feeling (204k)
May 30 2015 - See You Again (229k)
May 31 2014 - Problem (248k)
May 26 2013 - Can't Hold Us (241k)
May 26 2012 - Somebody That I Used To Know (321k)
May 28 2011 - Rolling In The Deep (353k)
June 5 2010 - OMG (236k)

[fhas]

May 28, 2018 20:54:58 GMT -5 @pete said:

How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because it’s becoming so irrelevant.

Hot 100 dated as May 26 (aka last week):

Sales #1: This Is America 50k (6,944 Hot 100 points)
Radio #1: The Middle 118.2M (14,071 Hot 100 points)
Streaming #1: This Is America 69.6M (46,252 Hot 100 points)

[fhas]

May 28, 2018 20:51:19 GMT -5 hunterquigley said:

If Psycho is on discount in the ITunes Store and continues it’s dominance over Nice for What in radio, could it finally overtake its number two peak and get to number one?

It's going to be a close race again, but Nice For What is the early favorite. It's holding really well this week on Spotify (+0.04%).

[rfucom]

I really reallly hope psycho will get this now.

[kcdawg13]

I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What.

[rfucom]

May 29, 2018 4:41:34 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What.

Still neck to neck. Streaming will be the main factor. NFW lead by miles on spotify while psycho lead by miles on youtube. They are close on deezer and shazam. I dunno bout apple music because they not giving us the numbers.

[ur local neighborhood dbender]

I really hope TIA doesn't start crumbling to the ground. It is still a good song.

[kanfad]

May 29, 2018 7:04:30 GMT -5 rfucom said:

May 29, 2018 4:41:34 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What.

Still neck to neck. Streaming will be the main factor. NFW lead by miles on spotify while psycho lead by miles on youtube. They are close on deezer and shazam. I dunno bout apple music because they not giving us the numbers.

That reminds me, why does shazaming a song seem to be so important to stans when its not relevant to the hot 100?

[hunterquigley]

Pyshco is up to number two on iTunes and gaining in sales. It looks like Drake’s “I’m Upset” disappeared off of ITunes. It was number one on ITunes last I checked and now it was 123. It really free fell down the charts.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/05/29
1. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (160.256) (-0.245)
2. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (151.522) (+0.464)
3. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (136.404) (-1.000)
4. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (125.646) (-1.589)
5. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (123.465) (-0.658)
6. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (120.624) (+2.533)
7. (=) DRAKE - Nice For What (109.933) (-0.281) ***
8. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (103.011) (+1.068)
9. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (94.658) (-1.923)
10. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (91.034) (-1.160)
11. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (85.763) (+0.335)
12. (=) BAZZI - Mine (85.050) (+0.835)
13. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (84.109) (+1.539)
14. (+2) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (78.957) (+2.576)
15. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (77.135) (-0.135)
16. (-2) MAX - Lights Down Low (76.775) (-0.678)
17. (=) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (71.906) (+0.100)
18. (=) DARIUS RUCKER - For The First Time (69.575) (-1.667)
19. (+1) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (67.397) (+0.068)
20. (-1) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (67.295) (-0.776)

Outside the Top 20:
31. (+4) CHARLIE PUTH - Done For Me f/Kehlani (50.740) (+1.224)
54. (+4) CARDI B - I Like It (32.673) (+1.624)
62. (+3) SELENA GOMEZ - Back To You (30.108) (+1.343)

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because it’s “irrelevant”? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but it’s still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao

[NeRD]

Right. That's just like saying they should remove radio from the equation because no one listens to it anymore.

[NeRD]

May 29, 2018 7:57:02 GMT -5 hunterquigley said:

Pyshco is up to number two on iTunes and gaining in sales. It looks like Drake’s “I’m Upset” disappeared off of ITunes. It was number one on ITunes last I checked and now it was 123. It really free fell down the charts.

Likely just deleted the single version.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^No Tears Left to Cry and Delicate look likely to reach the top 10 of Radio Songs next week.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

May 29, 2018 8:46:14 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because it’s “irrelevant”? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but it’s still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao

People should be reminded that the Hot 100 formula wasn't rebalanced the Hot 100 formulla this year as they had the last two years, which has only accentuated the irrelevance of digital sales.

[rimetm]

May 29, 2018 8:46:14 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because it’s “irrelevant”? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but it’s still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao

Hi, you just actually argued for the format’s removal at that point, because you know what format hasn’t counted for years? Physical single sales. In the years that I saw the numbers (2015-2017), the top song would get between 300 and 2,000 sales and less than 10 songs would cross the 3 digit mark in any week. There were so many ties and little interest that they even stopped doing that side chart sometime around the end of last year.

[Deleted]

The #1 on sales this week (Kris Wu) is gonna debut in the 50s on the Hot 100. So whatever, keep it in the format so very few people today keep buying it and use it as a measure of popularity like in the Delicate thread, which loves to talk about discount and how well it’s doing but somehow ignore streaming.

[Gary]

Ugh - song popularity is based on music "consumption". People "consume" music in ways other than streaming

[chartslovergermany]

Yes Taylor at #14 and it's rising very fast :)

[nickd]

Delicate should enter the top 30 this week right? Passing Mine and In My Blood this week is iffy but it should come close and definitely reach #12 on radio AI.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

May 29, 2018 9:01:07 GMT -5 rimetm said:

May 29, 2018 8:46:14 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because it’s “irrelevant”? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but it’s still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao

Hi, you just actually argued for the format’s removal at that point, because you know what format hasn’t counted for years? Physical single sales. In the years that I saw the numbers (2015-2017), the top song would get between 300 and 2,000 sales and less than 10 songs would cross the 3 digit mark in any week. There were so many ties and little interest that they even stopped doing that side chart sometime around the end of last year.

What? I said they shouldn’t remove a format just because numbers are low. Just because they apparently did just that doesn’t mean I suddenly agree with it? Who’s to say there won’t be another Candle in the Wind moment where a $1.99 physical cd single is suddenly made available at retailers all over that sells a million copies. They can’t not count that.

[renaboss]

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8458056/imagine-dragons-whatever-it-takes-adult-pop-songs-chart

And yet, no top 10 for "Whatever It Takes". :(

[annoymous1]

No Be Careful or Whatever it Takes in the top 10 smh at least Boo'd Up is in the top 10 but no one will care about that because of BTS being in the Top 10.

[brady47]

Yes at "Delicate" reviving Reputation.

I hope it becomes a decent hit for her, it gives me Style + Wildest Dreams vibes.

[lazer]

So, Cardi B finally released the "I Like It" video.

Hopefully, it becomes a huge hit.