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Post by Lukas on Dec 18, 2019 14:13:18 GMT -5
12/28/2019 Early Predictions:I made some changes to my formula so everything here should be more accurate. Mainly: 1) I changed my running formula a little bit. Basically, radio/7000 + sales/6 + weighted streaming/1500 changed to radio/7500 + sales/5 + weighted streaming/1500, which I found to be slightly more consistent with my formula. 2) I changed how I'm calculating UGC, as well as placing some more of the on-demand streams into the paid tiers (a full point) for Christmas songs (since Amazon music is completely paid), and I was informed that some of the Pandora streams were actually UGC streams, so a fixed percentage of Pandora streams are weighed 2/3rds of a point (they're still listed in the passive tier). Also, I have GAH, ITMWTOTY, and FS2020 not far behind BOP (all are less than 500 points behind it!). FS2020 could make it safely into the top 10 depending on its AM numbers/UGC views. Fun fact: AIWFCIY is at #1 with a comfortable 27.2% lead over RATCT for this week. If this is accurate, this means that this is the biggest ratio in points between the #1 and the #2 song ever since OTR commanded the chart. Before this week, the biggest ratio between points between #1 and #2 after OTR commanded the chart was when "Highest in the Room" beat "Truth Hurts" by about a 25% lead. | Rank | Song | Radio | Sales | On-Demand Streaming | Free Streaming | Passive Streaming | Total Streaming | Weighted Streaming | Total Points | | 1 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | 40,300,000 | 11,500 | 30,900,000 | 13,700,000 | 7,200,000 | 51,800,000 | 43,500,000 | 36,673 | | 2 | Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree | 35,700,000 | 6,000 | 25,000,000 | 4,100,000 | 12,000,000 | 41,100,000 | 34,300,000 | 28,827 | | 3 | Circles | 98,800,000 | 12,000 | 16,200,000 | 3,600,000 | 3,150,000 | 22,950,000 | 19,500,000 | 28,573 | | 4 | Roxanne | 39,500,000 | 6,000 | 17,300,000 | 15,300,000 | 1,900,000 | 34,500,000 | 27,600,000 | 24,867 | | 5 | A Holly Jolly Christmas | 28,900,000 | 2,000 | 22,700,000 | 3,800,000 | 9,500,000 | 36,000,000 | 30,300,000 | 24,453 | | 6 | Memories | 88,200,000 | 12,500 | 9,200,000 | 7,100,000 | 2,550,000 | 18,850,000 | 14,900,000 | 24,193 | | 7 | Someone You Loved | 79,000,000 | 10,000 | 11,200,000 | 6,300,000 | 2,650,000 | 20,150,000 | 16,300,000 | 23,400 | | 8 | Dance Monkey | 41,800,000 | 14,500 | 12,400,000 | 12,200,000 | 1,750,000 | 26,350,000 | 20,900,000 | 22,407 | | 9 | Jingle Bell Rock | 28,100,000 | 2,000 | 22,800,000 | 3,900,000 | 4,100,000 | 30,800,000 | 27,200,000 | 22,280 | | 10 | BOP | 21,300,000 | 4,000 | 16,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 2,100,000 | 35,100,000 | 27,700,000 | 22,107 |
How many points did you have AIWFCIY on under this formula last week? With modified on-demand/passive UGC estimates as well as the modified divisions, I would have AIWFCIY at around 29,500 points, good enough for #1. This does not include the physical sales, which would have brought it up to 32,700 points, and it also doesn't include the several million streams that I missed in comparison to the published numbers. |
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renaboss
Platinum Member
I don't want to miss a thing.
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Post by renaboss on Dec 18, 2019 15:00:28 GMT -5
Who is BOP by? Yet again my Google search was inconclusive.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 18, 2019 15:02:09 GMT -5
^Dababy.
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 18, 2019 15:07:31 GMT -5
Who is BOP by? Yet again my Google search was inconclusive. Admittedly, looking online to see who made a "bop" would be rather difficult to struggle through. |
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Kris
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Post by Kris on Dec 18, 2019 15:54:24 GMT -5
Gonna be weird in 15 years when all the "longest weeks in top 10" are all Christmas songs.
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kingofpain
Platinum Member
You give me the sweetest taboo.
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Post by kingofpain on Dec 18, 2019 15:55:40 GMT -5
Who is BOP by? Yet again my Google search was inconclusive. Dan Seals. It’s a smash on the country format. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 18, 2019 15:57:43 GMT -5
Who is BOP by? Yet again my Google search was inconclusive. Dan Seals. It’s a smash on the country format. It's nice to see his solo work outside of England Dan & John Ford Coley doing so well (/joke) |
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anorable
Charting
Blinding Lights for Top 10!
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Post by anorable on Dec 18, 2019 16:05:05 GMT -5
Still don't get why DaBaby's worst songs become his big hits. Baby Sitter and INTRO deserved better.
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Dec 18, 2019 16:34:25 GMT -5
^ I hope you're not insinuating that Suge is one of his worst songs
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anorable
Charting
Blinding Lights for Top 10!
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Post by anorable on Dec 18, 2019 16:52:04 GMT -5
I am, DaBaby's quality as always but the beat is trash.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Dec 18, 2019 17:02:54 GMT -5
Gonna be weird in 15 years when all the "longest weeks in top 10" are all Christmas songs. This is probably my main issue with the whole Christmas songs thing. 20 songs showing up for a few weeks every year, okay fine whatever, I can deal with that I guess. But if this continues then like you said, in 15-20 years from now all longevity records will basically belong solely to Christmas songs and no regular song will ever have a chance to break it, which I don't like |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 18, 2019 17:22:03 GMT -5
Gonna be weird in 15 years when all the "longest weeks in top 10" are all Christmas songs. This is probably my main issue with the whole Christmas songs thing. 20 songs showing up for a few weeks every year, okay fine whatever, I can deal with that I guess. But if this continues then like you said, in 15-20 years from now all longevity records will basically belong solely to Christmas songs and no regular song will ever have a chance to break it, which I don't like My own thoughts on this, such as they are, is that the rules about eligibility will be changed before Christmas songs take up all the longevity records. I can't imagine that you would be the only person who would not like that outcome. |
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cking33
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Post by cking33 on Dec 18, 2019 18:13:17 GMT -5
Gonna be weird in 15 years when all the "longest weeks in top 10" are all Christmas songs. This is probably my main issue with the whole Christmas songs thing. 20 songs showing up for a few weeks every year, okay fine whatever, I can deal with that I guess. But if this continues then like you said, in 15-20 years from now all longevity records will basically belong solely to Christmas songs and no regular song will ever have a chance to break it, which I don't like I doubt it’ll get to that point. It’s not like we’re locked in this pattern forever. Look at how fast technology and how we consume music changes. Ten years ago nobody could’ve foreseen something like this happening. So 10 years from now what is the landscape going to look like? It probably won’t look like what it does now. I think we can wait a few years before we think altering the rules. Honestly though, if not for the Christmas songs, outside of The Weeknd falling off a cliff, the top 6 or 7 songs would’ve had barely any movement, as is often the case in the streaming era. The streaming era is already messing with the long-standing longevity records. Songs are spending more time in the top 10 at No. 1 and on the chart in general more than they ever have, yet I don’t see anyone calling for radical changes in how we tabulate the charts week to weeks even though all these records are falling by the wayside to songs like ... Girls Like You. So what if Christmas songs become longevity record holders? That’s what you get for creating a song that multiple generations want to hear for a month out of the year! Not just being a flavor of the moment for 6 months to a year. What feels more correct: A forgettable song like Girls Like You holding a record for most weeks in the top 10, or in a decade if it sustains popularity, AIWFCIY? |
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lurker2
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Post by lurker2 on Dec 18, 2019 18:19:10 GMT -5
I’m torn, cause on one hand Christmas songs literally do have more longevity than most normal songs. But them controlling all time lists, or repeatedly being on year or decade end lists (insert “WHY DOES PULSE CARE ABOUT THESE” here) is kinda ridiculous.
But if the public has taste like that, so be it.
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iggyamo
Gold Member
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Post by iggyamo on Dec 18, 2019 18:25:31 GMT -5
I am, DaBaby's quality as always but the beat is trash. Honestly, I just don’t think he matches the beat, I like the beat on the Tory Lanez remix, but something about the original doesn’t click, but I love DaBaby so I just assume it’s that. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Dec 18, 2019 18:26:51 GMT -5
Imagine a Mariah ft. Post song. How would that really sound. Or a Mariah ft. The Weeknd Mariah and The Weeknd on a song actually sounds hot. Do that |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Dec 18, 2019 18:31:27 GMT -5
Gonna be weird in 15 years when all the "longest weeks in top 10" are all Christmas songs. Time will ease you into it. It won’t be a shock as it’ll be gradual. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Dec 18, 2019 18:35:01 GMT -5
I’m torn, cause on one hand Christmas songs literally do have more longevity than most normal songs. But them controlling all time lists, or repeatedly being on year or decade end lists (insert “WHY DOES PULSE CARE ABOUT THESE” here) is kinda ridiculous. But if the public has taste like that, so be it. But it makes sense. These songs are known and heard and consumed by more people over time than ‘regular’ songs. In no way would the charts be inaccurate in this case. I’d even be willing to bet my non-existent life savings that more people have heard, are familiar with, and know the majority of the lyrics to Last Christmas and AIWFCIY than Uptown Funk and Girls Like You. |
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degen
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Post by degen on Dec 18, 2019 18:35:17 GMT -5
I’m torn, cause on one hand Christmas songs literally do have more longevity than most normal songs. But them controlling all time lists, or repeatedly being on year or decade end lists (insert “WHY DOES PULSE CARE ABOUT THESE” here) is kinda ridiculous. But if the public has taste like that, so be it. Maybe Billboard just needs to do away with “the inverse point system” when they are tallying year end/decade end songs. Christmas songs may seem bigger under an inverse system. But generally, this is a very weak time of the year isn’t it? “Rockin Around the Christmas Tree,” with the points it’s getting now is able to be in the top 3, but If this was June, those points probably wouldn’t even get it to #8, am I correct? So let these Christmas songs have their few weeks in the top 10 every year, but the point totals in the long run aren’t going to add up with the point totals of say, “Uptown Funk” or “Shape of You,” so it can become very problematic and inaccurate for Billboard to continue using an inverse point system to tally hits when this is clearly the weakest time of the year. |
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Post by sheardbeard on Dec 18, 2019 18:38:23 GMT -5
I’m torn, cause on one hand Christmas songs literally do have more longevity than most normal songs. But them controlling all time lists, or repeatedly being on year or decade end lists (insert “WHY DOES PULSE CARE ABOUT THESE” here) is kinda ridiculous. But if the public has taste like that, so be it. Maybe Billboard just needs to do away with “the inverse point system” when they are tallying year end/decade end songs. Christmas songs may seem bigger under an inverse system. But generally, this is a very weak time of the year isn’t it? “Rockin Around the Christmas Tree,” with the points it’s getting now is able to be in the top 3, but If this was June, those points probably wouldn’t even get it to #8, am I correct? So let these Christmas songs have their few weeks in the top 10 every year, but the point totals in the long run aren’t going to add up with the point totals of say, “Uptown Funk” or “Shape of You.” And from what I understand, uptown funk gon’ give it to ya |
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Post by Lukas on Dec 18, 2019 19:02:49 GMT -5
I’m torn, cause on one hand Christmas songs literally do have more longevity than most normal songs. But them controlling all time lists, or repeatedly being on year or decade end lists (insert “WHY DOES PULSE CARE ABOUT THESE” here) is kinda ridiculous. But if the public has taste like that, so be it. Maybe Billboard just needs to do away with “the inverse point system” when they are tallying year end/decade end songs. Christmas songs may seem bigger under an inverse system. But generally, this is a very weak time of the year isn’t it? “Rockin Around the Christmas Tree,” with the points it’s getting now is able to be in the top 3, but If this was June, those points probably wouldn’t even get it to #8, am I correct? So let these Christmas songs have their few weeks in the top 10 every year, but the point totals in the long run aren’t going to add up with the point totals of say, “Uptown Funk” or “Shape of You,” so it can become very problematic and inaccurate for Billboard to continue using an inverse point system to tally hits when this is clearly the weakest time of the year. You're seriously calling this "clearly the weakest time of the year"? This is probably the first winter in forever where the charts were this weak. Last year, AIWFCIY had more points than it just did this past week during the Christmas week, but it had to compete against Thank u next and Without Me. And the year before, you had Rockstar and Perfect tallying about 45k+ points. The year before that? Closer and Black Beatles with even more points. And before that, Hello and Sorry with 60k+ points. The point is, you can't just generalize a song's chart run and say "oh the song's chart run is obviously better than its actual real point performances" when it is charting in multiple eras and only one of them is a weak era. Nor can you assume that just because this is the weakest time of the year one year means that it is the case for every other year. |
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Dec 18, 2019 19:05:35 GMT -5
Having this debate happen annually is more annoying than XMAS songs being on the chart. The only thing we should be talking about is Ballin cause it is the only song on the Hot 100.
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iggyamo
Gold Member
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Posts: 582
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Post by iggyamo on Dec 18, 2019 19:10:56 GMT -5
Having this debate happen annually is more annoying than XMAS songs being on the chart. The only thing we should be talking about is Ballin cause it is the only song on the Hot 100. I swear if it drops off before it gets enough points |
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Au$tin
Diamond Member
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Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 18, 2019 19:18:27 GMT -5
6ix9ine got two years, so looks like we’ll be having this discussion again next year Yeah, about that... |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 19:42:16 GMT -5
It's 11 months from now - the 24 months includes his time served (13 months). So it'll be around next November
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 18, 2019 19:47:42 GMT -5
It's 11 months from now - the 24 months includes his time served (13 months). So it'll be around next November That'll be just in time for us to talk next November about whether he will drop a mixtape/album before the end of the year. Joy. |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Dec 18, 2019 19:53:33 GMT -5
Who is BOP by? Yet again my Google search was inconclusive. Dan Seals. It’s a smash on the country format. Lol!!! I loved that song back in the day. Haha. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 18, 2019 20:31:58 GMT -5
TRUMP JUST GOT IMPEACHED!!! (YES, THIS IS TOTALLY RELEVANT TO THIS WEEK'S HOT 100 THREAD).
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dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
𝙁𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙋𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙋𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨, 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙥 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙒𝙖𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙘
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Dec 18, 2019 21:12:03 GMT -5
TRUMP JUST GOT IMPEACHED!!! (YES, THIS IS TOTALLY RELEVANT TO THIS WEEK'S HOT 100 THREAD). Happy for you guys and glad republicans (well, the ones that voted yes) finally came to their senses. Now if only that'd happen in my country  |
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dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
𝙁𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙋𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙋𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨, 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙥 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙒𝙖𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙘
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Dec 18, 2019 21:22:49 GMT -5
anyone looking for any antifa music to stream in celebration: any Run the Jewels song will do just nicely. This is America as well.
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