.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 9, 2021 18:18:50 GMT -5
Black River has mounted massive #1 pushes for her before in the past so we shall see how big her gains start to be. Going up against Luke Combs is definitely a tall feat, but I still think there's a chance.
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Feb 9, 2021 19:20:53 GMT -5
I don't remember who she was up against in the race for "Dibs" to hit #1, but I remember it came down to a handful of spins and she pulled it off. I know it didn't happen for "Miss Me More" but I think it miiiiiiiiight be able to squeak out BB #1. As it should.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 9, 2021 19:30:40 GMT -5
I don't remember who she was up against in the race for "Dibs" to hit #1, but I remember it came down to a handful of spins and she pulled it off. I know it didn't happen for "Miss Me More" but I think it miiiiiiiiight be able to squeak out BB #1. As it should. It eeked out #1 over Granger Smith "Backroad Song" that being said Granger Smith gave up that week and did not put up much of a fight and lost around 4 million in audience which was just enough. That being said I think country radio is gonna be slower to drop "Better Together" than they were with "Backroad Song"
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Feb 12, 2021 17:55:33 GMT -5
Alright... is this going to make it? 40 spins away from Luke Combs on MB.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 12, 2021 18:10:55 GMT -5
Alright... is this going to make it? 40 spins away from Luke Combs on MB. Like I said, it should hit #1 on Mediabase given the gains on Mediabase, but it is more important to track the audience on Mediabase to help with Billboard and right now the gap on Mediabase is at about 3 million so I think it could be close on Billboard given recent gains
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Feb 13, 2021 12:37:02 GMT -5
It looks like the manipulation will take her to run at Mediabase, but I don’t think she’ll do it at Billboard.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 13, 2021 12:52:38 GMT -5
Glad she was able to secure the #1 on MB but I am disappointed she will likely come up shy on BB, especially since (as I said in the daily chart update thread) this seems to happen much more often than not for females than it does for the males. Shame this couldn't have been her fifth #1 hit on both charts.
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Post by Elusive Chanteuse on Feb 13, 2021 13:02:25 GMT -5
I’m disappointed this will more likely miss the BB #1 but I’m glad this revived her radio career. Homecoming Queen underperforming and The Other Girl straight up flopping had me a bit concerned.
This shows how choosing the right single is important, which is a good thing they’re going with Half of My Hometown next because that feels like a surefire radio hit. Maybe that one can snatch #1 on Billboard.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 13, 2021 13:47:07 GMT -5
Yeah I did some estimates and given the current rates both songs are on audience wise I think "Better Together" will sneak in a fifth week at #1 as I have Kelsea Ballerini just around 29 million on Billboard and Luke Combs at around 30.5 million. Maybe Kelsea can really surge above and beyond these next two days and Luke Combs can really drop but right now I would probably say I am at 70% "Better Together" hitting #1 on Billboard this week and 30% for "Hole In The Bottle" at best.
I will say it is a shame this had such bad timing and just got blocked by such a juggernaut of a single. I do think "Better Together" has been such a big hit it probably does warrant 5 weeks at #1 on Billboard, and I do think it was the correct move for Black River to push this week because if they waited one more week she was probably gonna get blocked by Darius Rucker and any longer waiting probably would have meant singles from Luke Bryan and Parmalee/Blanco Brown were gonna block her on Billboard. But man I hate that this had such awful timing.
Honestly I think "Better Together" just amassing such a lead doomed this to a Mediabase only #1.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 13, 2021 19:36:48 GMT -5
What it looks like at MediaBase:
4 1 KELSEA BALLERINI Hole In The Bottle 8388 7239 1149 45.981
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 14, 2021 16:01:18 GMT -5
Praying and hoping this unseats Luke from Billboard and becomes Kelsea's 5th #1 for Billboard and 6th overall #1 hit. Luke has been #1 long enough, give it up and let Kelsea have her moment to shine. Be a gentlemen Luke and let the lady pass. I am thinking if she can get another good gain for today for tomorrow's update, then maybe it could take #1 for Billboard as well.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 14, 2021 16:02:26 GMT -5
Praying and hoping this unseats Luke from Billboard and becomes Kelsea's 5th #1 for Billboard and 6th overall #1 hit. Luke has been #1 long enough, give it up and let Kelsea have her moment to shine. Be a gentlemen Luke and let the lady pass. I am thinking if she can get another good gain for today for tomorrow's update, then maybe it could take #1 for Billboard as well. It's not really in Luke's control though it is pretty much the radio and to an extent the label that determines the whole thing not the artist themselves
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Feb 14, 2021 16:03:54 GMT -5
Praying and hoping this unseats Luke from Billboard and becomes Kelsea's 5th #1 for Billboard and 6th overall #1 hit. Luke has been #1 long enough, give it up and let Kelsea have her moment to shine. Be a gentlemen Luke and let the lady pass. I am thinking if she can get another good gain for today for tomorrow's update, then maybe it could take #1 for Billboard as well. It's not really in Luke's control though it is pretty much the radio and to an extent the label that determines the whole thing not the artist themselves I was trying to be a little humorous in my post but ya radio and label are in control here.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Feb 14, 2021 16:20:52 GMT -5
Alright I know the charts semi decently, but for people who really follow them what are your predictions for BB? Luke or Kelsea
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 14, 2021 16:32:49 GMT -5
Alright I know the charts semi decently, but for people who really follow them what are your predictions for BB? Luke or Kelsea Luke given the audience Luke lost this week and Kelsea's push week feels like a lot more overnight spins and more emphasis on Spins than audience with this push
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🌺CountryLineDancer
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Post by 🌺CountryLineDancer on Feb 14, 2021 17:34:44 GMT -5
Nobody's fault, but this is quite unfortunate. This song deserves to be #1. I strongly prefer this song over Better Together. BT is a fine song, but the fact that it blocks Kelsea from becoming #1 makes me have a negative view on BT now.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 15, 2021 8:49:37 GMT -5
Yeah I think judging by todays updates Black River was aiming for the Mediabase #1 and not the Billboard #1. At the end of the day this song still hit #1, will be labelled as such and helped her get back on top of the charts after 2 radio misfires in "Homecoming Queen" and "The Other Girl".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2021 10:23:47 GMT -5
You guys know that the record labels only care about mediabase right? Kelsea’s team did their job and got it to #1.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Feb 15, 2021 10:39:03 GMT -5
I'm excited Half of my Hometown is next! With Kenny also ready for a new single, maybe both promo teams will be behind it!
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Feb 15, 2021 11:18:45 GMT -5
Yeah I've learned to appreciate Mediabase (especially from being a Carrie fan.) Unfortunate because I feel like the majority of times we see a split chart it is involving a woman.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 15, 2021 11:20:17 GMT -5
You guys know that the record labels only care about mediabase right? Kelsea’s team did their job and got it to #1. I mean I think the record labels care about both just that Mediabase is a higher priority than Billboard. If it were up to the labels they would get #1 on both charts.
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ericNY2002
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Post by ericNY2002 on Feb 15, 2021 11:54:42 GMT -5
By making the “Hot Country Songs” chart their main country chart, Billboard has basically lowered their priority/importance of the airplay chart. Most countdown shows still use Mediabase for their charts as well. Also to be fair, labels seem to know how get the “points” needed to get to #1 on Mediabase. I just posted my thoughts on why both Charts should just move to rank the songs by spins on the daily MB post.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Feb 15, 2021 13:31:13 GMT -5
Yeah I've learned to appreciate Mediabase (especially from being a Carrie fan.) Unfortunate because I feel like the majority of times we see a split chart it is involving a woman. Tell me about it!!! What's this about a broken streak of consecutive singles. That's not what Mediabase says. Mediabase says "Drinking Alone" was #30 in a row. :kii: Anyways, I'm sad that Kelsea couldn't get the BB #1, but Mediabase says this went #1 so it's a #1 hit. Very happy that she managed for another time to come out on top despite being leagues behind at the beginning of the push week. Black River can't be underestimated!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 15, 2021 14:06:21 GMT -5
Nashville follows Mediabase more closely and will likely always will, given the points-based system. However, labels will want to prop up the best possible accolades for their artists and singles. Sony Music Nashville knew "Better Together" had a chance at 4-5 weeks at #1 on Billboard Country Airplay and went hard with multiple max spins weeks. Testing is what ultimately helped Luke, with it sitting at #1 on Mediabase callout. Corporate radio treat it like a business -- they will play whatever they think their listening audience wants to hear more; that means more people listening, increased ratings, which leads to more advertising and given the pandemic and radio stations being in the red all year in 2020, that's never been more of a concern for them than now. Whether the resources they use to determine what their audience wants to hear more are the best methods is a discussion worth having, but I don't see it changing anytime soon. The #1 pushes are just part of the game now. All labels and singles play by those rules and stations help out their friends by giving them extra overnight spins. The majority of singles that enter the top 10 these days either peak at 1 or 2. It was much more common to have singles peak between 4-9, 10+ years ago but with the increased importance of corporate radio logs, chart runs now last longer and conversions for singles happen at the same rate on so many stations. It's not as fun to follow the charts now. I still do because that's just the way I'm wired (lol) and there's enough uncertainty to keep it somewhat interesting, but yeah, I get the frustration. In the end, 95% of radio listeners don't care or pay attention to the Mediabase or Billboard Airplay chart, and labels will do whatever is necessary to get their singles to #1 and manipulate the peaks.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 15, 2021 15:15:34 GMT -5
It's too bad Hole In The Bottle could not top Billboard. Otherwise, Kelsea Ballerini would have been the 139th artist in country music history with five chart topping hits. I think that distinction will belong to Russell Dickerson.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Feb 15, 2021 15:44:49 GMT -5
Nashville follows Mediabase more closely and will likely always will, given the points-based system. However, labels will want to prop up the best possible accolades for their artists and singles. Sony Music Nashville knew "Better Together" had a chance at 4-5 weeks at #1 on Billboard Country Airplay and went hard with multiple max spins weeks. Testing is what ultimately helped Luke, with it sitting at #1 on Mediabase callout. Corporate radio treat it like a business -- they will play whatever they think their listening audience wants to hear more; that means more people listening, increased ratings, which leads to more advertising and given the pandemic and radio stations being in the red all year in 2020, that's never been more of a concern for them than now. Whether the resources they use to determine what their audience wants to hear more are the best methods is a discussion worth having, but I don't see it changing anytime soon. The #1 pushes are just part of the game now. All labels and singles play by those rules and stations help out their friends by giving them extra overnight spins. The majority of singles that enter the top 10 these days either peak at 1 or 2. It was much more common to have singles peak between 4-9, 10+ years ago but with the increased importance of corporate radio logs, chart runs now last longer and conversions for singles happen at the same rate on so many stations. It's not as fun to follow the charts now. I still do because that's just the way I'm wired (lol) and there's enough uncertainty to keep it somewhat interesting, but yeah, I get the frustration. In the end, 95% of radio listeners don't care or pay attention to the Mediabase or Billboard Airplay chart, and labels will do whatever is necessary to get their singles to #1 and manipulate the peaks. There are many problems with using testing this way at country (or other) radio. 1. You obviously need to keep the 70% of your listening base happy that really likes the Luke Combs song, but when you almost exclusively cater to that group, you lose the other 30% of your listeners. Especially if you want to grow your audience, you can't only focus on what the majority wants. 2. Testing always favors male voices, because radio plays more male voices, so listeners develop a preference for male voices, so male voices test better, so radio plays more male voices (insert loop)
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Feb 16, 2021 7:11:41 GMT -5
Yeah I agree about radio putting too much of their priorities on testing. Love Luke Combs, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say radio ruins it sometimes by playing his songs into the ground. When I’m driving and I flip between my 3 main country stations there’s always a 95 percent chance one of his songs is on or about to come on.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Feb 16, 2021 13:32:51 GMT -5
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SHOOTER
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Post by SHOOTER on Feb 16, 2021 13:58:49 GMT -5
And women in country continue to be robbed. Sad! Glad she got the Mediabase #1 at least! This song deserves it all. Zero burn rate over here!
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 16, 2021 18:39:30 GMT -5
Yeah I agree about radio putting too much of their priorities on testing. Love Luke Combs, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say radio ruins it sometimes by playing his songs into the ground. When I’m driving and I flip between my 3 main country stations there’s always a 95 percent chance one of his songs is on or about to come on. Not to mention when it's with a song like "Better Together." It sounds like a boring, dreary acoustic demo. Like how in the world is that a 5-week #1?! I got tired of it just from playing the album when it came out.
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