Billboard Hot 100: 07/24/2021

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 21, 2021 13:28:26 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Yes, but when has such logic ever been consistent?

Just think, if logic was consistent, then the 50/20 rule would have pushed One Too Many into recurrency.

[nathanalbright]

Yes, and that ought to make us cautious in our abilities to predict the future. Obviously, looking from hindsight, anyone who thought the Weeknd was finished because of the flops of those loosies and even the quick drop of Heartless from #1 certainly knows that he is not finished now, at least until his next era begins and people can wonder if he is overexposed and will flop accordingly.

Edit to answer our resident OTM hater:

Logic was consistent in that case as being a carved-out exception to the 50/20 recurrency rule that allows for actively promoted songs that are slow to catch on to remain on the charts as long as they are being actively promoted and increasing (however slowly).  This exception has happened quite a few times before as we have discussed here repeatedly.  Also, the fact that OTM is still rising after 31 weeks and may reach the top 50 in its 32nd week is vindication of the exception in showing that the song had truly not reached its peak yet, as did its increase not only in radio but also in streaming.  Also, this same carved-out exception to the 25/52 rule is what allowed Blinding Lights to return to the charts after being kicked out due to the glut of holiday related songs, as it rose in streaming and radio due to its prominence in 2020 YE lists, and has remained on the charts since then as we all know.  Consistency is indeed a challenge.

[wavey.]

Jul 21, 2021 14:29:45 GMT -5 ddlz said:

#13 is an amazing debut for Playboi Carti, especially considering the fact that Motley Crew is his worst single to date.

🤔

[phieaglesfan712]

Where is OTM on the radio and streaming charts this week anyways?

[nathanalbright]

I suppose someone with access would have to post those charts as we have requested .

[KeepDeanWeird]

Imagine how much stronger OTM would be if it hadn't completed its HAC run 6 mos ago. Reservice now that P!nk's single has stalled?

[Lukas]

Late but I should mention that "Blinding Lights" gets the biggest sales gain this week despite actually dropping in digital sales. This can only mean that its physicals shipped this week; this also explains why it's higher than what most predictors had.

People were claiming that the physicals would ship next week (this current tracking week) but that doesn't look to be the case, unless the physicals are somehow split-shipped towards this week and next week, but to my knowledge I've never seen physicals get split-shipped in recent times.

The physicals getting shipped this week was, kind of a questionable decision, because all that literally did was make the song chart at #17 instead of #20 this week. They should've been shipped later on when the song was about to risk going recurrent.

[nathanalbright]

Is it late, though? I get the feeling we will be talking about BL for a long time.

[phieaglesfan712]

I think it’s a split-ship. I think some of the physicals shipped on Thursday, others on Friday. If it all shipped last tracking period, I would think BL would be much nearer to the Top 10, instead of #17.

[85la]

Jul 21, 2021 15:02:19 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Where is OTM on the radio and streaming charts this week anyways?

It's #44 in Airplay and not on Streaming Songs or Digital Songs.

[mylo]

Still don't know how Mood, MEBF and BL survived The Off-Season and Sour. I could've swore at least 1 would've been knocked out

[phieaglesfan712]

Debut week, The Off-Season felt bigger than Sour. It is pretty obvious, though, that Sour had the better longevity Week 2 and onwards.

[nathanalbright]

That longevity for Sour and its hits is pretty intense.

[Gary]

Longevity champs for peaks outside top 50

One Too Many, Keith Urban Duet With P!nk 31
El Perdon (Forgiveness), Nicky Jam & Enrique Iglesias 30
HeadBand, B.o.B Featuring 2 Chainz 29
The Rockafeller Skank, Fatboy Slim 27
Talk You Out Of It, Florida Georgia Line 26

[nathanalbright]

We have a new longevity champion in the lightweight division.....

[gs]

So Butter plagiarized this song's chorus, it literally sounds the EXACT same

The fact that this is a 7-week #1 ""hit"" is laughable. It's honestly just beyond embarrassing at this point. The fraudulence and corruption literally needs to be written in history books.

[nathanalbright]

Those songwriters better lawyer up. I wonder if that's why the record label head was given writing credit, hmm....

[jayhawk1117]

Wow I was expecting a slight similarity... Those are literally the same choruses 💀

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jul 21, 2021 20:48:16 GMT -5 gs said:

So Butter plagiarized this song's chorus, it literally sounds the EXACT same

The fact that this is a 7-week #1 ""hit"" is laughable. It's honestly just beyond embarrassing at this point. The fraudulence and corruption literally needs to be written in history books.

According to genius, it was written by Adri Blok and came out March 2020.

genius.com/amp/Luca-debonaire-you-got-me-down-lyrics

There’s not a lot about him that I could find in a quick search. Are we sure they’re not among the songwriters of Butter under a different name? That isn’t a similarity as much as an exact duplicate and would be stupid embarrassing if it wasn’t cleared somehow first.

[iHype.]

It is a bit ironic a Post Malone knockoff managed to outdebut him the same week.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 21, 2021 16:54:56 GMT -5 85la said:

Jul 21, 2021 15:02:19 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Where is OTM on the radio and streaming charts this week anyways?

It's #44 in Airplay and not on Streaming Songs or Digital Songs.

If these are the stats of the 52nd biggest song in the US, then the Hot 100 formula needs to be changed. There is no reason why a song that is not even ranked in 2 metrics and outside the Top 40 of the only metric it is ranked in should be charting near the Top 50. Also, it is not a good look for streaming's future that this song got the streaming gainer award without even being on the streaming songs chart. I'm pretty sure that has never happened before, and this only shows that streaming is on the decline. Oh, and it even dropped a spot on the radio songs chart (from 43 to 44, when I thought for sure that it was going to be nearer to the Top 40 this week with its 'supposed gains').

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Apparently Sebastian Garcia sold it to Adri Blok in 2019. I don’t know the legality of it, but it looks like legal negotiations are underway in some form according to the following tweets.

[thabb]

Jul 21, 2021 23:38:10 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 21, 2021 16:54:56 GMT -5 85la said:

It's #44 in Airplay and not on Streaming Songs or Digital Songs.

If these are the stats of the 52nd biggest song in the US, then the Hot 100 formula needs to be changed. There is no reason why a song that is not even ranked in 2 metrics and outside the Top 40 of the only metric it is ranked in should be charting near the Top 50. Also, it is not a good look for streaming's future that this song got the streaming gainer award without even being on the streaming songs chart. I'm pretty sure that has never happened before, and this only shows that streaming is on the decline. Oh, and it even dropped a spot on the radio songs chart (from 43 to 44, when I thought for sure that it was going to be nearer to the Top 40 this week with its 'supposed gains').

Are you typing this with a straight face? MRC/Nielsen literally just released their midyear report and streaming gained 10.8% from H1 2020 to H1 2021, while digital song sales have decreased 20.3% in the same timeframe.
The top 50 on streaming is simply just weak at the moment; that doesn't mean that streaming is dead, dying, or otherwise "on the decline".
The top 50 isn't exactly the best barometer to determine the overall health of streaming neither, since MRC recently revealed that 2/3 of consumption in the US is catalogue music and not current music.

[Limited Edition]

Jul 21, 2021 20:48:16 GMT -5 gs said:

So Butter plagiarized this song's chorus, it literally sounds the EXACT same

Wrong. Both Luca Debonaire and BTS bought the melody from Sébastian Garcia, who is credited in Butter's songwriters.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Streaming has been on such a decline that this year a song broke records for most individual streams within a day and most streams within a week (excluding Christmas songs)

[Gary]

Jul 21, 2021 23:38:10 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 21, 2021 16:54:56 GMT -5 85la said:

It's #44 in Airplay and not on Streaming Songs or Digital Songs.

If these are the stats of the 52nd biggest song in the US, then the Hot 100 formula needs to be changed. There is no reason why a song that is not even ranked in 2 metrics and outside the Top 40 of the only metric it is ranked in should be charting near the Top 50. Also, it is not a good look for streaming's future that this song got the streaming gainer award without even being on the streaming songs chart. I'm pretty sure that has never happened before, and this only shows that streaming is on the decline. Oh, and it even dropped a spot on the radio songs chart (from 43 to 44, when I thought for sure that it was going to be nearer to the Top 40 this week with its 'supposed gains').

I think you are still staring at one too many blinding lights - it is affecting your vision.

If these are the stats of the 52nd biggest song in the US, then the Hot 100 formula needs to be changed. There is no reason why a song that is not even ranked in 2 metrics and outside the Top 40 of the only metric it is ranked in should be charting near the Top 50.

It is reasonable to not be in the top 50 for streaming, digital songs or even radio and be #52 overall. Last I checked, #52 is also outside the top 50.

Seems like the formula is fine

Also, it is not a good look for streaming's future that this song got the streaming gainer award without even being on the streaming songs chart. I'm pretty sure that has never happened before, and this only shows that streaming is on the decline.

The entire future of the streaming industry rests on the fate of the #52 song on this chart. It re-entered Country Streaming Songs TOP 25 chart at #13. from not in the top 25 on country.  Hence the gain.

Oh, and it even dropped a spot on the radio songs chart (from 43 to 44, when I thought for sure that it was going to be nearer to the Top 40 this week with its 'supposed gains')

Dropping a spot on radio songs to #44 does not mean it lost audience. In fact it moved up a spot from #14 to #13 on country airplay




This song was likely granted a second 20 week run before recurrency because it was still growing after 20 weeks.

So hang on a little longer you still have 9 more weeks, maybe longer if it moves up to top 50.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 21, 2021 14:30:19 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Edit to answer our resident OTM hater:

Logic was consistent in that case as being a carved-out exception to the 50/20 recurrency rule that allows for actively promoted songs that are slow to catch on to remain on the charts as long as they are being actively promoted and increasing (however slowly).  This exception has happened quite a few times before as we have discussed here repeatedly.  Also, the fact that OTM is still rising after 31 weeks and may reach the top 50 in its 32nd week is vindication of the exception in showing that the song had truly not reached its peak yet, as did its increase not only in radio but also in streaming.  Also, this same carved-out exception to the 25/52 rule is what allowed Blinding Lights to return to the charts after being kicked out due to the glut of holiday related songs, as it rose in streaming and radio due to its prominence in 2020 YE lists, and has remained on the charts since then as we all know.  Consistency is indeed a challenge.

If One Too Many's weeks count, then so too should the week Blinding Lights missed due to Christmas. Based on TOTC's estimation, Levitating had 167 points that week, which is what BL would have had (putting it as the 6th/7th biggest non-Christmas song that week):

TOTC Week 6 (Levitating 818 points):

TOTC Week 7 (Levitating 985 points):

Keep in mind, One Too Many has never even accumulated half of BL's 167 points that week, and was even allowed to chart at #78 on the 6/19/2021 chart. Yeah, Billboard's recurrent rules are arbitrary if it makes an exception for the 78th biggest song in the middle of summer (28 spots below the 50/20 cutoff with no Christmas songs to compete with), but not one for what would have been the 6th/7th biggest non-Christmas song on a week that Christmas songs bombarded the charts. Those 167 points not counting could make a difference in BL's 2021 Year End charting position.

[Groovy]

Jul 22, 2021 7:31:59 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 21, 2021 14:30:19 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Edit to answer our resident OTM hater:

Logic was consistent in that case as being a carved-out exception to the 50/20 recurrency rule that allows for actively promoted songs that are slow to catch on to remain on the charts as long as they are being actively promoted and increasing (however slowly).  This exception has happened quite a few times before as we have discussed here repeatedly.  Also, the fact that OTM is still rising after 31 weeks and may reach the top 50 in its 32nd week is vindication of the exception in showing that the song had truly not reached its peak yet, as did its increase not only in radio but also in streaming.  Also, this same carved-out exception to the 25/52 rule is what allowed Blinding Lights to return to the charts after being kicked out due to the glut of holiday related songs, as it rose in streaming and radio due to its prominence in 2020 YE lists, and has remained on the charts since then as we all know.  Consistency is indeed a challenge.

If One Too Many's weeks count, then so too should the week Blinding Lights missed due to Christmas. 

This logic makes no sense at all. 

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

How is this still a thing?

[nathanalbright]

Jul 22, 2021 7:49:45 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

How is this still a thing?

You know how it is.