Billboard Hot 100: 10/23/2021

[kimberly]

Oct 12, 2021 21:51:06 GMT -5 rideordie said:

How much streams are we predicting Adele will debut with on Spotify?
I saw 15 mil streams

this is most likely not going to happen since she's releasing at 7pm ET/4pm PT. her first 24 hours will be split between Thursday's and Friday's Spotify charts.

for that reason I'm unsure what the debut number will be. her second day will be what's important for her Hot 100 performance & competing for No. 1.

[rideordie]

Oh. She’s releasing on UK time?

[gikem]

Oct 12, 2021 22:11:08 GMT -5 rideordie said:

Oh. She’s releasing on UK time?

100-1 jump confirmed /j

[jayhawk1117]

That's "only" 5 hours of streams lost. The first reactions will be out and boom all Friday it'll pick up from there.

I 100% see it debuting in the Spotify top 10 with those 5 hours though tbh.

[iamsorare]

Early predictions: Shivers/Need To Know fighting for top 10 m.youtube.com/watch?v=lzvXQIvlA_0

[kimberly]

^ that's a fully frozen Top 8. when's the last time the entire Top 8 was a repeat of the previous week's chart?

I'm rooting for "Need To Know" to take over "Shivers," Doja really deserves another Top 10 peak. "Woman" next I hope.

[iamsorare]

Oct 13, 2021 3:49:47 GMT -5 kimberly said:

^ that's a fully frozen Top 8. when's the last time the entire Top 8 was a repeat of the previous week's chart?

I'm rooting for "Need To Know" to take over "Shivers," Doja really deserves another Top 10 peak. "Woman" next I hope.

I really don't know how shivers is going to be higher than need to know cause need to know is higher on Spotify,apple music and radio..but we will see

[thegreatdivine]

Knife Talk overtakes Way 2 Sexy and is now #1 on US Apple Music.

[phieaglesfan712]

Drake needs to be forced to release Knife Talk as a single. The GP really loves this song, and I would hate for its potential to be wasted in the way that Wants & Needs was earlier this year.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

English woman sad again

[mms82]

Oct 13, 2021 8:47:56 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Drake needs to be forced to release Knife Talk as a single. The GP really loves this song, and I would hate for its potential to be wasted in the way that Wants & Needs was earlier this year.

Drake is really pulling Lover era level wrong singles choices this year

[thegreatdivine]

Hopefully, Knife Talk gets pushed as the next single off CLB. Wants and Needs (which is #32 on US AM right now) never getting pushed as a single earlier this year was a really dumb move on Drake's part.

[nathanalbright]

Do you think Drake will push another single off of CLB seeing how most of it is dropping off rather quickly?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/10/13

1(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 107.67(+0.42)
2(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 97.14(-0.28)
3(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 80.57(-0.17)
4(=) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 77.13(+0.70)
5(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More f/Sza 72.21(-0.36)
6(=) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 67.45(+0.78)
7(=) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 65.82(+0.68)
8(=) Måneskin - Beggin 64.91(+0.47)
9(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 64.30(+0.19)
10(=) Doja Cat & The Weeknd - You Right 56.32(+0.15)

18(+2) Elvie Shane - My Boy 41.93(+1.20)

27(+2) Ryan Hurd & Maren Morris - Chasing After You 32.27(+0.73)

42(+1) Elton John & Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 26.44(+0.71)

55(+3) Drake - Girls Want Girls f/Lil Baby 23.03(+0.92)

78(+4) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 16.79(+0.64)

-(-) Meek Mill - Sharing Locations 9.85(+0.69)

-(-) Wale - Poke It Out (feat. J. Cole) 6.96(+0.77)

[iamsorare]

[Groovy]

Barring another big release, I think Adele has a good chance of staying at 1 until the Christmas freeze.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Boyz is no longer in the top 100 of iTunes. I get the feeling it will debut on the Bubbling Under Hot 100 chart.

[phieaglesfan712]

Fancy Like has a legitimate chance to sneak in a week as the digital songs #1 before the Adele invasion.

[kcdawg13]

Lil Nas X is really pushing for Industry Baby to go #1

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 10/12/21

1(=) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 1,317,410 (-36,846)
2(=) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,135,037 (-31,899)
3(=) Drake - Knife Talk 1,081,394 (+27,303)
4(=) Drake - Way 2 Sexy 958,171 (-4,805)
5(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 947,759 (-1,285)
6(=) Doja Cat - Need to Know 804,052 (-2,220)
7(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 746,903 (-8,110)
8(=) Baby Keem - family ties 716,408 (+27,573)
9(+1) THE ANXIETY, WILLOW, Tyler Cole - Meet Me At Our Spot 675,334 (+2,626)
10(+1) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More 671,649 (+2,238)

Others:
11(-2) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 667,029 (-14,901)
12(=) Drake - Fair Trade 657,201 (+17,289)
13(+1) Doja Cat - Woman 618,283 (-1,961)
14(-1) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 607,948 (-15,604)
15(+1) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 586,874 (+9,189)
16(-1) Sleepy Hallow - 2055 583,387 (-19,491)
17(=) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 577,953 (+16,985)
18(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 564,714 (+6,420)
19(=) Tainy - Lo Siento BB:/ 539,702 (-6,918)
20(=) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 533,291 (-1,028)
21(=) Nardo Wick - Who Want Smoke?? 528,446 (+26,096)
22(+1) Eslabon Armado, DannyLux - Jugaste y Sufrí 512,905 (+16,988)
23(-1) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 508,738 (+8,562)
24(=) Drake - Girls Want Girls 498,619 (+9,341)
25(+2) Kanye West - Hurricane 483,758 (+13,972)
26(+2) Dua Lipa - Levitating 470,959 (+4,263)
27(-2) Farruko - Pepas 469,190 (-4,208)
28(-2) Måneskin - Beggin' 465,764 (-6,096)
30(-1) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 456,950 (-6,635)
31(+1) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 452,340 (-5,655)
32(-1) CKay - love nwantiti (ah ah ah) 450,886 (-7,772)
33(+1) Coldplay, BTS - My Universe 447,618 (+4,911)
34(+4) Elton John, Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 446,623 (+37,953)
35(-2) Oliver Tree - Life Goes On 446,082 (+423)
37(-1) Don Toliver - Flocky Flocky 415,617 (-11,715)
38(-1) $uicideboy$ - ...And to Those I Love, Thanks for Sticking Around 413,391 (+4,383)
40(+1) Surf Curse - Freaks 392,491 (+7,690)
42(+3) Ivan Cornejo - Está Dañada 387,040 (+21,971)
44(+8) Kanye West - Praise God 383,914 (+43,652)
46(-2) Kanye West - Moon 375,218 (+6,362)
47(=) Gunna, Future - Too Easy 372,444 (+12,437)
48(-6) Skylar Grey - Last One Standing 365,646 (-15,063)
49(+1) Meek Mill - Sharing Locations 360,979 (+11,183)
51(-3) Justin Bieber - Peaches 355,123 (-2,288)
53(+3) Realestk - WFM 342,851 (+16,830)
55(-4) Tai Verdes - A-O-K 335,867 (-8,189)
56(+2) LISA - MONEY 333,099 (+13,147)
57(-2) Drake - Champagne Poetry 331,423 (+4,286)
58(-1) Justin Bieber - Ghost 328,701 (+7,890)
59(+3) Joyner Lucas, J. Cole - Your Heart 327,712 (+17,312)
60(=) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 322,216 (+6,406)
61(+2) Yot Club - YKWIM? 317,264 (+10,357)
62(-3) Chlöe - Have Mercy 316,218 (-1,592)
64(+17) Billie Eilish - Bored 305,168 (+26,672)
66(+3) Drake - No Friends In The Industry 302,712 (+10,779)
68(-3) Lil Tecca - LOT OF ME 300,791 (-848)
72(-2) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 295,947 (+6,740)
77(+9) girl in red - we fell in love in october 289,948 (+12,998)
79(-2) PinkPantheress - Pain 288,326 (+6,072)
82(=) Playboi Carti - Sky 284,704 (+6,315)
89(+5) Beach House - Space Song 278,158 (+10,855)
90(-5) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever Edit 277,986 (+937)
98(+9) bbno$ - edamame 263,604 (+7,357)

101(-22) 24kGoldn - Prada 260,922 (-18,567)
110(+4) Aventura, Bad Bunny - Volví 252,474 (+6,074)
112(-6) A-Wall - Loverboy 251,908 (-4,431)
114(-4) Jordan Davis, Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt 250,300 (-3,305)
118(+9) The Rare Occasions - Notion 245,386 (+7,773)
119(-3) CKay - love nwantiti remix 244,941 (+1,391)
125(+21) The Walters - I Love You So 238,859 (+15,741)
135(-14) Siouxxie - masquerade 234,376 (-5,241)
144(-2) Ryan Hurd - Chasing After You 226,335 (+1,832)
146(-2) Russ - Seduce 224,368 (+577)
148(-7) Joy Again - Looking Out for You 223,553 (-950)
170(-8) Jason Aldean, Carrie Underwood - If I Didn't Love You 212,392 (-642)
171(-24) Cody Johnson - 'Til You Can't 212,177 (-10,511)
184(-16) GIVEON - For Tonight 208,166 (+59)
185(-6) TV Girl - Not Allowed 208,113 (+2,397)

Total Streams for Happier Than Ever: 864,860
Total Streams for love nwantiti: 695,827

[iamsorare]

Oct 13, 2021 11:17:42 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Lil Nas X is really pushing for Industry Baby to go #1

he won't go #1 and Adele is coming

[phieaglesfan712]

Oct 13, 2021 12:24:50 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Oct 13, 2021 11:17:42 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Lil Nas X is really pushing for Industry Baby to go #1

he won't go #1 and Adele is coming

Do you think Fancy Like can sneak in a week at #1 and interrupt Adele, like Sicko Mode did with TUN?

[enwhy]

Oct 13, 2021 12:40:12 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Oct 13, 2021 12:24:50 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

he won't go #1 and Adele is coming

Do you think Fancy Like can sneak in a week at #1 and interrupt Adele, like Sicko Mode did with TUN?

So obviously it's not 2015 anymore, and there are a lot of questions about how Adele's sales will compare. But I went back to check, and Hello held a 50% lead in chart points over the #2 songs (Hotline Bling & Sorry) for the first 5 weeks of its run. That's like a song today opening with 800 and then holding with 500+ points for a month. So IF her new song's run looks anything like that, Fancy Like or Industry Baby will have to hold on until late November.

[atg]

I feel like if Adele is truly on people’s minds again, then she could do Driver’s License numbers easily. I don’t know, if she could’ve done the equivalent with sales back in 2015 when you couldn’t debut so high with just one factor, i’m not sure what’s the hesitation to say that she might do it again with streaming, and maybe the song might end up selling so well. It’s somehow still weighted a lot on the charts as we’ve seen with a certain group this year.

[kimberly]

Oct 13, 2021 12:40:12 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Oct 13, 2021 12:24:50 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

he won't go #1 and Adele is coming

Do you think Fancy Like can sneak in a week at #1 and interrupt Adele, like Sicko Mode did with TUN?

[phieaglesfan712]

For what it’s worth, Industry Baby is predicted to go #1 on the RS 100 for the first time. 7-week #1 Stay is predicted to be #2, and 4-week #1 Way 2 Sexy is predicted to fall to #3.

[Gary]

Oct 13, 2021 12:40:12 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Oct 13, 2021 12:24:50 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

he won't go #1 and Adele is coming

Do you think Fancy Like can sneak in a week at #1 and interrupt Adele, like Sicko Mode did with TUN?

I will say this much you are doing everything you can to "will" Fancy Like to #1. Posting about it and putting it in your sig line

What do you get if you win? and will you be OK if it doesn't happen?

[kindofbiased]

Kinda confused where this obsession with Fancy Like hitting #1 came from in the first place

Also my prediction for the Shivers/Need To Know situation is Shivers is all but guaranteed to go top 10 this week so I'm pulling for Need To Know to make it as well, but if not I think it'll get there a week or 2 after Adele's big debut

[Fire]

Oct 13, 2021 3:49:47 GMT -5 kimberly said:

when's the last time the entire Top 8 was a repeat of the previous week's chart?

i'm not gonna say that this is the actual answer, but the most recent chart i remember was the 6/17/2017 chart where the entire top 9 was the same as the previous week (the only change being post malone's "congratulations" replaced kygo and selena gomez's "it ain't me" for #10)

[korbel16]

Meet me at our spot needs to hit top 10 my god