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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 12, 2021 13:44:51 GMT -5
On the top of my head, yes, it would be the shortest amount of time a 10+ week #1 would spend on the chart, unless ARMY pulls additional sales tricks to keep it afloat. The closest example I can think of is Lose Yourself, which spent 12 weeks at #1 but 23 weeks on the charts overall. Didn’t IMF only spend 22 weeks on the Hot 100 in 2018? |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 12, 2021 14:10:37 GMT -5
The 5 #1's in history with single digit chart runs
Life Goes On, BTS 3
Trollz, 6ix9ine & Nicki Minaj 4
Permission To Dance, BTS 7
Do I Make You Proud, Taylor Hicks 8
Franchise, Travis Scott Featuring Young Thug & M.I.A. 9
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Oct 12, 2021 14:22:36 GMT -5
The closest example I can think of is Lose Yourself, which spent 12 weeks at #1 but 23 weeks on the charts overall. Didn’t IMF only spend 22 weeks on the Hot 100 in 2018? That’s right, knew I was missing something. To be fair, though, unlike Butter and Lose Yourself, it didn’t quite spend half its run at #1. |
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degen
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Post by degen on Oct 12, 2021 15:03:10 GMT -5
If you would’ve told me a few months ago that there would be a red head English male singer storming up the charts this fall, I would’ve guessed Ed. But instead we got Elton.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 12, 2021 15:05:25 GMT -5
Elton is 74. His hair would be grey
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Oct 12, 2021 15:07:00 GMT -5
Elton is 74. His hair would be grey  |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 12, 2021 15:11:07 GMT -5
The 5 #1's in history with single digit chart runs Life Goes On, BTS 3 Trollz, 6ix9ine & Nicki Minaj 4 Permission To Dance, BTS 7 Do I Make You Proud, Taylor Hicks 8 Franchise, Travis Scott Featuring Young Thug & M.I.A. 9 Wow two songs in this section and Butter is about to claim the record for shortest run for a track with 10+ weeks at #1. BTS stays winning. |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 12, 2021 15:28:57 GMT -5
The 5 #1's in history with single digit chart runs Life Goes On, BTS 3 Trollz, 6ix9ine & Nicki Minaj 4 Permission To Dance, BTS 7 Do I Make You Proud, Taylor Hicks 8 Franchise, Travis Scott Featuring Young Thug & M.I.A. 9 Wow two songs in this section and Butter is about to claim the record for shortest run for a track with 10+ weeks at #1. BTS stays winning. Not to mention, 4 out of the 5 songs are from the last year alone, in a time when songs are setting longevity records. Amazing considering the old record holder held it for 14 years, and the one before that (I think it was Whatever Gets You Through the Night) held it the 30 years before that. |
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Oct 12, 2021 16:23:30 GMT -5
When was Elton John’s last number 1?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 12, 2021 16:24:45 GMT -5
When was Elton John’s last number 1? CITW 1997 in late 1997/early 1998 |
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Oct 12, 2021 16:44:03 GMT -5
When was Elton John’s last number 1? CITW 1997 in late 1997/early 1998 So hypothetically, it has a chance to contend for Cher’s record for longest gap between number 1s next year? |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 12, 2021 16:47:08 GMT -5
CITW 1997 in late 1997/early 1998 So hypothetically, it has a chance to contend for Cher’s record for longest gap between number 1s next year? No just shy of 25 years is the record still has a year to go and probably would need to be the album after this one |
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GP
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Post by GP on Oct 12, 2021 16:52:39 GMT -5
pre-Adele seems like it's slow around here. The calm before the HURRICANE
love to see it
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GP
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Post by GP on Oct 12, 2021 16:54:23 GMT -5
The 5 #1's in history with single digit chart runs Life Goes On, BTS 3 Trollz, 6ix9ine & Nicki Minaj 4 Permission To Dance, BTS 7 Do I Make You Proud, Taylor Hicks 8 Franchise, Travis Scott Featuring Young Thug & M.I.A. 9 BTS kings of the smallest #1s in HISTORY, RECORD-breaking kings |
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atg
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Post by atg on Oct 12, 2021 17:13:22 GMT -5
pre-Adele seems like it's slow around here. The calm before the HURRICANE love to see it For Adele to come in just so she could be replaced by AIWFCIY is going to be iconic. If this happens we’re not gonna get a new #1 until 2022… |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 12, 2021 17:29:15 GMT -5
pre-Adele seems like it's slow around here. The calm before the HURRICANE love to see it For Adele to come in just so she could be replaced by AIWFCIY is going to be iconic. If this happens we’re not gonna get a new #1 until 2022… Not guaranteed at all to happen. It won't keep going #1 every year, as over time it won't be able to keep up that level of popularity. Even if it does manage it again this year, I predict it will be one of its last, and of course Adele's or another song could be huge enough to keep it from the top. |
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Post by dodgerslakers94 on Oct 12, 2021 18:08:21 GMT -5
For Adele to come in just so she could be replaced by AIWFCIY is going to be iconic. If this happens we’re not gonna get a new #1 until 2022… Not guaranteed at all to happen. It won't keep going #1 every year, as over time it won't be able to keep up that level of popularity. Even if it does manage it again this year, I predict it will be one of its last, and of course Adele's or another song could be huge enough to keep it from the top. Hopefully Adele can somehow pull it off and remain at #1 for the week ending 12/25/2021 and 01/01/2022. The way how the charts are nowadays with songs debuting at #1, having AIWFCIY at #1 every holiday season will be the last straw for me. |
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degen
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Post by degen on Oct 12, 2021 18:23:15 GMT -5
I agree that AIWFC might not be going to #1 annually. There could be a point where Christmas music becomes less popular. With its huge streaming resurgence in the late 2010s, that genre will soon become oversaturated and streaming listeners might grow tired of it. The songs 25th anniversary and Mariah’s special helped beef up the numbers these last couple years, but I do see it calming down.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Oct 12, 2021 18:32:27 GMT -5
It should also be noted that Christmas music streaming was much stronger than usual last year (probably a combination of people finding comfort in the holidays after a rough 2020 and less inter-family visitation). Maybe AIWFCIY and/or RATCT will pull off the holiday #1 this year, but I agree that it's not exactly sustainable even if that music is still popular annually.
(It's also possible that 2021 could end up being the only year where 2 Christmas songs make a YE, but that's beside the point.)
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 12, 2021 18:50:03 GMT -5
I agree that AIWFC might not be going to #1 annually. There could be a point where Christmas music becomes less popular. With its huge streaming resurgence in the late 2010s, that genre will soon become oversaturated and streaming listeners might grow tired of it. The songs 25th anniversary and Mariah’s special helped beef up the numbers these last couple years, but I do see it calming down. Also, Christmas fell on a Wednesday and Friday in 2019 and 2020, respectively, which helped AIWFCIY and the other Christmas songs have big peaks. They won't have that advantage this year, with Christmas falling on a Saturday (for the first time since 2010), so the biggest days (Christmas Eve/Day) will be split from the last full tracking week (Dec 17-23). |
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Post by nathanalbright on Oct 12, 2021 19:07:25 GMT -5
That split may help keep the songs around for a week longer then, so as long as the streams are high it shouldn't be a big deal either way. We'll see if this year's streams are on the level of last year's when that time comes.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 12, 2021 19:22:20 GMT -5
Another thing that will somewhat make up for slightly lower sales and streaming the tracking week before Christmas, is that it will now have a full tracking week of radio. I don't expect holiday songs to be as strong as they were on the tracking week that ended on December 24th last year, with many of them reaching new Hot 100 peaks or debut for the first time ever, but it should still probably be the second biggest holiday song week.
On the topic of the tracking week starting on December 24th this year, I would expect only a few of the holiday songs to hang on and chart that week.
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forg
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Post by forg on Oct 12, 2021 21:02:59 GMT -5
There's likely gonna be a Butter Christmas remix or something to keep it from dropping out
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Oct 12, 2021 21:06:17 GMT -5
Theoretically how strong would Adele's reign have to be to chart on the 2021 Year end chart?
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Post by sheardbeard on Oct 12, 2021 21:10:38 GMT -5
There's likely gonna be a Butter Christmas remix or something to keep it from dropping out “Butter Xmix (feat. Brenda Lee)” |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Oct 12, 2021 21:11:26 GMT -5
Theoretically how strong would Adele's reign have to be to chart on the 2021 Year end chart? It would have to obtain an average of ~530 points per week. That would put it at ~1590 points, good for #100 (assuming DBTGA and Goosebumps are the current frontrunners for that title). |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Oct 12, 2021 21:31:49 GMT -5
Theoretically how strong would Adele's reign have to be to chart on the 2021 Year end chart? It would have to obtain an average of ~530 points per week. That would put it at ~1590 points, good for #100 (assuming DBTGA and Goosebumps are the current frontrunners for that title). so like 3x what Good 4 U had during Sours release week? If it's getting Hello numbers I could see it lol |
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𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤
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Post by 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 on Oct 12, 2021 21:34:00 GMT -5
It'll be kinda wild if Butter spends 10 weeks at #1 and then leaves after 20 weeks isnt that wild? “dynamite” is a smaller hit than “butter” by the numbers, but it’s a MUCH bigger hit culturally. |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Oct 12, 2021 21:39:41 GMT -5
It would have to obtain an average of ~530 points per week. That would put it at ~1590 points, good for #100 (assuming DBTGA and Goosebumps are the current frontrunners for that title). so like 3x what Good 4 U had during Sours release week? If it's getting Hello numbers I could see it lol I think a more accurate comparison would be Drivers License, which got to roughly 1600 points by its third week. |
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rideordie
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Post by rideordie on Oct 12, 2021 21:51:06 GMT -5
How much streams are we predicting Adele will debut with on Spotify?
I saw 15 mil streams
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