Billboard Hot 100: 11/13/2021

[fridayteenage]

let's go brandon a 2 week sales #1, hmm.

[Gary]

Doesn’t appear to be going for a third though.

[Taylor.]

Still a great week for Ed overall but lol @ those predictions. Where did everyone get those sales figures from and why did they trust them?

[iHype.]

Nov 8, 2021 13:43:47 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

Still a great week for Ed overall but lol @ those predictions. Where did everyone get those sales figures from and why did they trust them?

Someone claimed that he had been selling CD singles since Bad Habits release and was waiting to ship them all album release week to maximize a peak. I guess it just caught on since there wasn't a true way to verify that claim.

That claim never had any proof though, and on top of that people were claiming sales figures that weren't even logical. (Who is selling 50k copies of a CD single that had like 2 versions in 2021?) 

If you did a quick search on Twitter nobody was talking about receiving a Bad Habits CD this week. Also on his website he's been selling a Bad Habits cassette that is limited to 1,000 copies for 5 months and that hasn't even sold out yet so clearly he was not selling huge amounts of CD singles. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Also wow, looks like Heat Waves didnt need a remix from a racist country singer or a remix changing 'June'to 'November' in order to hit the top 10. Who would've guessed that? 🤔

[sheardbeard]

It’s become increasingly difficult to “trust” any chart predictors now that Alpha Data is no longer publicized. Pretty much any predictions going forward are just really just wild guesses at this point. No reason for anyone to stop if it’s fun for them though… but people really shouldn’t be relying on them anymore.

[algo]

Nov 8, 2021 13:48:12 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also wow, looks like Heat Waves didnt need a remix from a racist country singer or a remix changing 'June'to 'November' in order to hit the top 10. Who would've guessed that? 🤔

i forgot about this lmao

on the topic, do we think heat waves could have a radioactive-type run? its only now hitting top ten but i doubt its peaked in position yet and with the radio still on rise its gonna stick around for a while

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 8, 2021 13:38:01 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Adele blocking stay from being a 10 week number 1 is everything

Easy On Me is to Stay what Stay was to G4u at the tail end. According to Olivia stan logic, I guess Stay was the #1 the last 3 weeks.

[mms82]

Nov 8, 2021 13:48:12 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also wow, looks like Heat Waves didnt need a remix from a racist country singer or a remix changing 'June'to 'November' in order to hit the top 10. Who would've guessed that? 🤔

I figure your referencing Morgan Wallen- was that something rumored Heat Waves feat Morgan Wallen?

[mms82]

Nov 8, 2021 13:54:54 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 8, 2021 13:38:01 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Adele blocking stay from being a 10 week number 1 is everything

Easy On Me is to Stay what Stay was to G4u at the tail end. According to Olivia stan logic, I guess Stay was the #1 the last 3 weeks.

uh no
good 4 u was blocked by a song that was being bought by a handful of thousand of people 50+ times over while dominating across the board otherwise

Easy On Me is just a bigger song than Stay is right now- I bet if you removed any one metric it would stay number one (while Butter would’ve fallen to the 50s or below when it was number one if you removed sales

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 8, 2021 13:57:06 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Nov 8, 2021 13:48:12 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also wow, looks like Heat Waves didnt need a remix from a racist country singer or a remix changing 'June'to 'November' in order to hit the top 10. Who would've guessed that? 🤔

I figure your referencing Morgan Wallen- was that something rumored Heat Waves feat Morgan Wallen?

No, someone here actually just thought it would be a good idea if he did a remix just to boost the song on the charts

[mylo]

Wait isn't FL supposed to hit number 1 soon?

[iHype.]

Nov 8, 2021 13:52:17 GMT -5 sheardbeard said:

It’s become increasingly difficult to “trust” any chart predictors now that Alpha Data is no longer publicized. Pretty much any predictions going forward are just really just wild guesses at this point. No reason for anyone to stop if it’s fun for them though… but people really shouldn’t be relying on them anymore.

Huh? What makes y’all say this? I’m so confused as to why this keeps being said lol.

Alpha Data not existing anymore doesn’t really seem to directly effect being able to do predictions from what I can see.

HITS publishes a top 50 Streaming chart every Friday so we know how much audio streams each hit is getting weekly. YouTube makes their numbers publicly available so we also know how much video streams a song is getting weekly.

Radio is right there on Kworb. Sales for songs were never revealed by Alpha/Rolling anyways and even then they’re so minuscule and obviously don’t really give much points for majority of hits.

Alpha Data also never tracked physical song sales so they would have been absolutely 0 help this week as to knowing whether Bad Habits was shipping a bunch of CDs.

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 8, 2021 14:03:39 GMT -5 mylo said:

Wait isn't FL supposed to hit number 1 soon?

It did on country radio. Hopefully, the Hot 100 is next.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 8, 2021 14:12:44 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 8, 2021 14:03:39 GMT -5 mylo said:

Wait isn't FL supposed to hit number 1 soon?

It did on country radio. Hopefully, the Hot 100 is next.

Good luck on that.

[twelvevinylrecords]

RIP Levitating in the top 10

[campbellssoup]

Feb 24, 2021 13:50:59 GMT -5 campbellssoup said:

Jan 24, 2021 17:37:28 GMT -5 campbellssoup said:

Heat Waves

Edit: (Maybe not top 10, but top 30 for sure)

I now feel confident predicting this going top 10 for sure.

Had to flex this from the Future Top 10 Hits Currently Charting thread, I've been waiting for this moment

[thegreatdivine]

Nov 8, 2021 13:35:03 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Ed has two hits in the top 10 right now. 🔥

Been that way for the last 4 weeks.

Acts with 2 or more songs in the Hot 100 top 10 simultaneously this year:
Olivia Rodrigo - 15 weeks
The Weeknd - 10 weeks
Drake - 7 weeks
Ariana Grande - 6 weeks
Lil Nas X - 5 weeks
Ed Sheeran - 4 weeks
BTS - 3 weeks
Justin Bieber - 2 weeks
J. Cole - 1 week
Kanye West - 1 week

[JukeboxJacob]

I didn't even realize so many people dislike Heat Waves, I personally love it but I was already over it back in May lol

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I wonder if the Ed @ #1 prediction was planted to make him look more like a flop when he inevitably didn’t reach the top of the Hot 100. Despite all that flop talk, Ed has been doing fairly well - at least on the Hot 100, and this week he has two songs in the top ten. Maybe this era won’t be as big for him as his last one was; it’s still been pretty good so far.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Heat Waves is this year's High Hopes where when I first heard it I enjoyed it a lot but I cannot hear it anymore without liking it less and less and it peaks 5 months too late. If the radio makes me dislike Heat Waves as much as I dislike High Hopes now it's on site

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^While soundwise they are both alternative rock, their chart success has been quite different. High Hopes mostly achieved it thanks to radio, while Heat Waves has done so due to streaming.

[spiritboy]

If Ed had CD singles, i'm sure they would've mentioned in that Hot 100 articles. I'm glad Ed didn't pull that gimmick or he would've been dragged to the pits.

People want to make Ed look like a flop but the only flop here is themselves. :kii:

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Bad Habits I believe would have these shipped this week. Perhaps they have been shipped as available or will be shipped later?

Bad Habits (Digitally Animated CD Single)

[spiritboy]

Maybe they didn't do mass shipping like some artists do?

[gikem]

Only 5 new songs on the Hot 100 this week to (likely) close out the 2021 tracking year:
#41 Overpass Graffiti - Ed Sheeran
#61 Demon High - Lil Uzi Vert
#81 Rap Freaks - Yung Miami
#82 Eat It - Megan Thee Stallion
#100 Ghost Town - Benson Boone

Cedric was not far off with the debuts of Overpass Graffiti and Demon High, but Rap Freaks and Eat It were predominantly popular on AM, and Ghost Town was building a slow rise and I guess it beat 23 to the punch in terms of low debuts this week. So far, outside of those and Bad Habits not going to #1 (which was always suspect), his predictions are not nearly as off as I was expecting.

Side note, I find it really shocking that Ed Sheeran went from having every debut on the chart be from Divide back in 2017 to only one new entry on album week this year. At the very least I was expecting 1 or 2 more to show up, even if very low on the charts, or even a return for Visiting Hours.

[ontopofthis]

Anyone who really believed that 60,000 sales figure is a fool      

[reginaphalange]

Nov 8, 2021 14:39:46 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Maybe this era won’t be as big for him as his last one was; it’s still been pretty good so far.

Um actually it's doing even better singles-wise? His last project only spawned one smash hit, I Don't Care. The others didn't even reach the top 10.

I don’t think it's fair to consider his last album before Equals to be Divide and ignore the whole collabs album. He already ""underperformed"" to Divide's standards two years ago.

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 8, 2021 16:35:58 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Anyone who really believed that 60,000 sales figure is a fool      

I never really believed the 60k sales figure, and it should have been pretty obvious when Ed didn’t get the #1 in the UK.

[Choco]

Future #1 hit "Fancy Like" ranks top 5 on a single metric this week: the least important one.