dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 2, 2022 13:54:17 GMT -5
Wouldn’t the album bombs of week one be replaced by the album bombs of week two, which would be replaced by the bombs of week three, and so on? Other than whichever songs get pushed out/off after the first week of bombs, assuming there are minimal album tracks that linger, are we expecting everything to be out after this series of big releases? It would depend on dip of each album. Most albums will be gone by week 2 (particularly if they don't debut in the Top 40), but we could always have outliers (I think of SOUR and Certified Lover Boy being steady after Week 1) or have one deepcut stick around due to virality. |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on May 2, 2022 13:56:06 GMT -5
Jack Harlow vs Bad Bunny for the Billboard 200 #1 will definitely be interesting! Bad Bunny will easily win |
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on May 2, 2022 14:02:56 GMT -5
The next 6-8 weeks are going to be a mess on the Hot 100 and I'm going to love every minute of it.
Future (already out), Jack Harlow, Bad Bunny, Kendrick Lamar, Harry Styles, Post Malone & BTS all releasing albums.
A lot of songs that have been hanging around a while should finally either get kicked out of the top 10 or go recurrent.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 2, 2022 14:17:14 GMT -5
Don't forget about recurrent rules. It's certainly possible that songs like G4u and WDTAB survive the Future and Jack Harlow/Bab Bunny albums, but not the Kendrick album the following week due to the recurrent rules.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 2, 2022 14:17:49 GMT -5
We won! Stay falling off the Top 10 confirmed! Stay is at #6 and Bad Bunny's last two album bombs only had one top ten hit between the two so idk if this is as much of a lock as you think it is |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on May 2, 2022 14:18:40 GMT -5
A lot of songs that have been hanging around a while should finally either get kicked out of the top 10 or go recurrent. "Save Your Tears" and "Levitating" ahem I swear if I see these mfs go #23-#18(+5) one more time... |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 2, 2022 14:23:38 GMT -5
A lot of songs that have been hanging around a while should finally either get kicked out of the top 10 or go recurrent. "Save Your Tears" and "Levitating" ahem I swear if I see these mfs go #23-#18(+5) one more time... Fancy Like and You Right too I could swear since the Weeknd/Gunna week those two have just gone 30-33-33-36-32-29-38-34-37-40-39-36-35-37 & would probably continue to do so until the end of time |
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on May 2, 2022 14:27:55 GMT -5
We won! Stay falling off the Top 10 confirmed! Stay is at #6 and Bad Bunny's last two album bombs only had one top ten hit between the two so idk if this is as much of a lock as you think it is We have Future's album bomb currently and Jack Harlow is releasing the same week as Bad Bunny. Between Future's second week and the other two, I could see Stay being kicked out of the top 10, albeit maybe briefly. I guess it depends on how their albums hold up and how big of an album bomb the likes of Kendrick Lamar/Harry Styles/Post Malone/BTS have in the following weeks. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 2, 2022 14:32:18 GMT -5
I’ll admit I was wrong about writing the obituary too early on About Damn Time. Although I have to admit that it was weird that this song did next to nothing in Weeks 1 and 2, and all of a sudden caught traction in Week 3. That never happens in this day and age.
About Damn Time is going to be huge. My classic R&B station played this song on Friday and it rarely ever plays new songs. In fact, I believe the last time my classic R&B played a new song was Uptown Funk in December 2014, and we all know how big that got. It is kind of weird and unusual, but could just be that not enough people knew about it the first week, the label might not have done the best job marketing it, along with Lizzo hype overall dying down since she hasn't released much in a while and Rumors vastly underperforming, etc. I guess it goes to show that if you come out with a good catchy song that people really connect with, and the TikTok meme being the main catalyst for this, it can really turn things around!
The best thing about We Don't Talk About Bruno is its chart run. It's a massive smash hit, iconic multi-week #1, yet it hasn't hung around at the top of the charts for 9 months, it has a fast climb and fast fall (by today's standards at least), like the hit songs in previous decades did. If all hit songs acted like this the charts would be more entertaining I think. Although personally I'm starting to think it's not as big as Let It Go after all. Let It Go had a lot more longevity if I remember correctly. I think let it go will end up being bigger. A huge difference is that let it go had huge momentum from theaters (1.2 billion + box office), then huge dvd sales which aren’t a thing anymore, then tv showings, + awards. I’d even add the rushed theme park song along attraction helped Encanto didn’t do huge numbers during its brief theatrical run for understandable reasons and went straight to Disney+, so the legs are going to be different. It's still early to tell of course but if I had to guess I'd agree that Let It Go will end up being the more memorable. It's song structure is more traditional and is simpler and easier to sing, etc., but comparing strictly their chart performance, they will probably end up with about equal the number of points. Let It Go was a bit more of a slow burner with more longevity than Bruno, and obviously a lower peak at #5, though Bruno of course exploded much quicker and achieved a higher peak for a short time, 5 weeks at #1, but seems to be dropping from the public consciousness much quicker, so in many ways it's acting more like a meme, or a fad. Let It Go just seems to have a more broad and inter-generational appeal, whereas eight years from now I don't know if too many people would be able to go up and sing Bruno at a karaoke bar (especially because it's sung in multiple voices!). The points you brought up about the success of each movie don't seem really valid however. Encanto had almost all of what Frozen had, maybe not the huge box office numbers, but nearly 100 million in the US is nothing to scoff at, especially around the omicron wave of the pandemic, and it seemed to do even better on Disney+, and it did win the Oscar for best animated feature, and also nominated for best original score and best original song (though obviously for a different song). |
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 2, 2022 14:44:14 GMT -5
Well of course we'll have to see if WDTAB gets remembered but I do agree with the statement above-- Let It Go is more simple and "digestible", I guess. And in the long run I think it will go down as a classic Disney song, but I won't bank on WDTAB getting forgotten either- I reckon it'll be more remembered for its record breaking achievements
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on May 2, 2022 15:09:08 GMT -5
ahem "Save Your Tears" and "Levitating" ahem I swear if I see these mfs go #23-#18(+5) one more time... Fancy Like and You Right too I could swear since the Weeknd/Gunna week those two have just gone 30-33-33-36-32-29-38-34-37-40-39-36-35-37 & would probably continue to do so until the end of time I constantly forget that Fancy Like is even still charting god we needed these album bombs so badly |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 2, 2022 15:23:47 GMT -5
As someone who is a fan of Fancy Like, even I have to admit that all these weeks charting in the 30s and 40s are completely unnecessary. Billboard needs to make the recurrent rules 15/52 and 25/40, especially after the post-Christmas runs of Levitating and Save Your Tears. Otherwise, Heat Waves and Stay will probably still be charting in May 2023.
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lurker2
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Post by lurker2 on May 2, 2022 15:35:15 GMT -5
Otherwise, Heat Waves and Stay will probably still be charting in May 2023. Good. The public really likes them, why should they be forced off? |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 2, 2022 15:42:08 GMT -5
Otherwise, Heat Waves and Stay will probably still be charting in May 2023. Good. The public really likes them, why should they be forced off? By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. |
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atg
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Post by atg on May 2, 2022 15:51:58 GMT -5
A lot of songs that have been hanging around a while should finally either get kicked out of the top 10 or go recurrent. "Save Your Tears" and "Levitating" ahem I swear if I see these mfs go #23-#18(+5) one more time... Imagine if they just returned by the end of this album bomb madness… or just linger around the same spots dodging everyone.. that would literally be the biggest troll in billboard history. |
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 2, 2022 15:52:45 GMT -5
Good. The public really likes them, why should they be forced off? By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. everyone *wishes* for them to go yes, but we shouldn't force them off the chart when they clearly deserve to be high |
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on May 2, 2022 15:56:53 GMT -5
I’ll admit I was wrong about writing the obituary too early on About Damn Time. Although I have to admit that it was weird that this song did next to nothing in Weeks 1 and 2, and all of a sudden caught traction in Week 3. That never happens in this day and age.
About Damn Time is going to be huge. My classic R&B station played this song on Friday and it rarely ever plays new songs. In fact, I believe the last time my classic R&B played a new song was Uptown Funk in December 2014, and we all know how big that got. It is kind of weird and unusual, but could just be that not enough people knew about it the first week, the label might not have done the best job marketing it, along with Lizzo hype overall dying down since she hasn't released much in a while and Rumors vastly underperforming, etc. I guess it goes to show that if you come out with a good catchy song that people really connect with, and the TikTok meme being the main catalyst for this, it can really turn things around!
I think let it go will end up being bigger. A huge difference is that let it go had huge momentum from theaters (1.2 billion + box office), then huge dvd sales which aren’t a thing anymore, then tv showings, + awards. I’d even add the rushed theme park song along attraction helped Encanto didn’t do huge numbers during its brief theatrical run for understandable reasons and went straight to Disney+, so the legs are going to be different. It's still early to tell of course but if I had to guess I'd agree that Let It Go will end up being the more memorable. It's song structure is more traditional and is simpler and easier to sing, etc., but comparing strictly their chart performance, they will probably end up with about equal the number of points. Let It Go was a bit more of a slow burner with more longevity than Bruno, and obviously a lower peak at #5, though Bruno of course exploded much quicker and achieved a higher peak for a short time, 5 weeks at #1, but seems to be dropping from the public consciousness much quicker, so in many ways it's acting more like a meme, or a fad. Let It Go just seems to have a more broad and inter-generational appeal, whereas eight years from now I don't know if too many people would be able to go up and sing Bruno at a karaoke bar (especially because it's sung in multiple voices!). The points you brought up about the success of each movie don't seem really valid however. Encanto had almost all of what Frozen had, maybe not the huge box office numbers, but nearly 100 million in the US is nothing to scoff at, especially around the omicron wave of the pandemic, and it seemed to do even better on Disney+, and it did win the Oscar for best animated feature, and also nominated for best original score and best original song (though obviously for a different song). Frozen was the most successful movie of its year box office wise. Encanto wasn’t even top 10. Frozen also moved over 4.2 physical albums which was insane at the time. When I meant awards I should’ve clarified that Indina sang let it go a ton of places which led to great promo. People were waiting four hours to meet those sisters in the parks haha. I’m not trying to diminish Encanto/ we don’t talk about Bruno. But I think we forget how insane frozen performed |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 2, 2022 16:00:44 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 05 » / « 02 »
1(=) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 88.85(+0.17)
2(=) Latto - Big Energy 85.52(+0.72) +
3(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 79.88(+0.11)
4(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 75.53(+0.01) 5(+1) Harry Styles - As It Was 73.72(+1.49) +
6(-1) Lil Nas X - Thats What I Want 73.22(-0.48)
7(=) Doja Cat - Woman 66.90(-0.58)
8(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 66.50(-0.65)
9(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 59.54(-0.10)
10(=) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 53.70(-1.07)
17(+2) Jack Harlow - First Class 41.50(+2.52)
22(+2) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 37.56(+0.98)
26(+1) Carly Pearce & Ashley Mcbryde - Never Wanted To Be That Girl 35.08(+0.80)
49(+2) Jason Aldean - Trouble With A Heartbreak 25.05(+0.88)
58(+8) Lizzo - About Damn Time 20.51(+1.52) 66(+2) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 19.30(+0.85)
75(+11) The Kid LAROI - Thousand Miles 16.50(+1.42) -(-) Shakira & Rauw Alejandro - Te Felicito 10.42(+1.62) -(-) Ed Sheeran - 2step (feat. Lil Baby) 10.10(+0.90)
-(-) Sam Smith - Love Me More 8.81(+1.74) -(-) Russ - Handsomer 6.02(+0.82) +
-(-) Chris Brown - WE (Warm Embrace) 5.42(+0.88) + -(-) Megan Thee Stallion - Plan B 4.10(+0.98) + -(-) Justin Bieber - Honest (feat. Don Toliver) 3.95(+0.83)
-(-) Luis Figueroa - Todavia Te Espero 2.12(+1.05) + -(-) Imagine Dragons - Bones 2.00(+1.29) +
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musicspy
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Post by musicspy on May 2, 2022 16:15:22 GMT -5
Stay is at #6 and Bad Bunny's last two album bombs only had one top ten hit between the two so idk if this is as much of a lock as you think it is We have Future's album bomb currently and Jack Harlow is releasing the same week as Bad Bunny. Between Future's second week and the other two, I could see Stay being kicked out of the top 10, albeit maybe briefly. I guess it depends on how their albums hold up and how big of an album bomb the likes of Kendrick Lamar/Harry Styles/Post Malone/BTS have in the following weeks. Plus,dont rule out possible single releases. Anybody could put a single out that catches fire and debuts high up the charts |
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Post by dodgerslakers94 on May 2, 2022 16:23:39 GMT -5
Good. The public really likes them, why should they be forced off? By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. That’s almost like saying that all #1 songs once fallen from the summit should never return back to #1. |
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 2, 2022 16:59:53 GMT -5
Any conversation about recurrency changes has to acknowledge how music consumption has changed. This week marks a full year where Heat Waves has achieved 10M+ streams every single week. Blinding Lights did the same for ~18 months. Ironically, more choice has led to more stagnation in the top 40. Should the charts reflect this? Are we going to see more and more songs like this, or is this just a pandemic-era oddity? Lots of questions for Billboard to consider. |
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Post by nathanalbright on May 2, 2022 17:25:13 GMT -5
It is pretty clear that music consumption has changed for greater stagnation; I'm not sure how Billboard will respond to this reality or if any tweaks to the rules are necessary, since there isn't really a form of consumption aside from nearly nonexistent sales that is front-loaded in favor of brand new songs.
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atg
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Post by atg on May 2, 2022 18:30:34 GMT -5
By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. everyone *wishes* for them to go yes, but we shouldn't force them off the chart when they clearly deserve to be high To add on, this is also a case where its not only radio, but streaming is still a big thing for both songs. I get that they’re old and have really overstayed their welcome, but forcing them off the charts would feel extremely inaccurate if they’re still among the most consumed songs in the country right now. |
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lazer
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Post by lazer on May 2, 2022 18:55:52 GMT -5
The question is why are Heat Waves and Stay still getting streams? How are people not getting sick of those songs and moving on to another? There are thousands of other songs yet a chunk of streamers still clinging on to them. Plus, those songs are mediocre at best.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on May 2, 2022 19:00:23 GMT -5
LOL it has been so long since we had a discussion about recurrent rules - kind of miss it :)
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Post by livelightning on May 2, 2022 19:12:23 GMT -5
Good. The public really likes them, why should they be forced off? By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. I will never understand this take. You need a better reason than "me no like old songs charting" to change the recurrent rules. |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 2, 2022 19:45:18 GMT -5
By that point, Heat Waves will be a month shy of 3 years from its release, while Stay will be 21 months past its peak. I’d much rather (and I think most people will agree that) these songs fall off the chart in November and never come back again. I will never understand this take. You need a better reason than "me no like old songs charting" to change the recurrent rules. If Save Your Tears and Levitating charting in May 2022, a year after peaking isn’t enough for you to get the recurrent rule changed, I don’t know what will. I would have been okay with it coming back for 2 weeks in January, but these songs have been circling around the 16-25 range for 4 damn months now. I don’t need to see a repeat of this next year with Heat Waves and Stay. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on May 2, 2022 19:55:25 GMT -5
I will never understand this take. You need a better reason than "me no like old songs charting" to change the recurrent rules. If Save Your Tears and Levitating charting in May 2022, a year after peaking isn’t enough for you to get the recurrent rule changed, I don’t know what will. I would have been okay with it coming back for 2 weeks in January, but these songs have been circling around the 16-25 range for 4 damn months now. I don’t need to see a repeat of this next year with Heat Waves and Stay. Why do you need to have the recurrent rules changed at all? Why is this a big deal? |
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on May 2, 2022 20:27:45 GMT -5
The question is why are Heat Waves and Stay still getting streams? How are people not getting sick of those songs and moving on to another? My question is, how are people sick of those songs if they don't listen to the radio? Really, if you control the music you listen to, how do you get sick of any song? |
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on May 2, 2022 22:02:07 GMT -5
Speaking of possible single releases from like 10 posts ago, how likely do we think The Heart Part V is coming soon? iirc The Heart Part IV dropped a week before DAMN. so if he follows that pattern The Heart Part V would drop on the same day as the Jack Harlow and Bad Bunny albums. With the hype Kendrick has I could see it going top 10 or at least debuting really high outside of the top 10
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