Choco
Diamond Member
james dean daydream
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 27,985 
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by Choco on Aug 5, 2022 15:03:35 GMT -5
I think Bey will miss #1. The expectation that it would hold to album drop day numbers was not reallistic.
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M5AGTS
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 3,011
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Post by M5AGTS on Aug 5, 2022 15:12:00 GMT -5
I think Bey will miss #1. The expectation that it would hold to album drop day numbers was not reallistic. It will be super close either way. Honestly because of that this week is really exciting. It's a very tight three way race between bms, adt, and aiw. I really don't want aiw to go back to number one again. It's a good song, but it's had its time. |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Aug 5, 2022 15:15:04 GMT -5
Circles Around This Town is still gaining on radio & just hit a new peak. Could it make a return to the hot 100?
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Groovy
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Posts: 6,719
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Post by Groovy on Aug 5, 2022 15:16:58 GMT -5
Circles Around This Town is still gaining on radio & just hit a new peak. Could it make a return to the hot 100? Doubt it but it would cool if it did, it only needs a week or two to make the YE. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 5, 2022 15:19:41 GMT -5
I think Bey will miss #1. The expectation that it would hold to album drop day numbers was not reallistic. It will be super close either way. Honestly because of that this week is really exciting. It's a very tight three way race between bms, adt, and aiw. I really don't want aiw to go back to number one again. It's a good song, but it's had its time. Have we had a song have five turns at #1? |
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 5, 2022 15:20:46 GMT -5
It will be super close either way. Honestly because of that this week is really exciting. It's a very tight three way race between bms, adt, and aiw. I really don't want aiw to go back to number one again. It's a good song, but it's had its time. Have we had a song have five turns at #1? Nope, only 4 different runs |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Aug 5, 2022 15:26:48 GMT -5
Tbh I hope AIW does it because it's the last chance anyone has to break the record before AIWFCIY basically deletes that chart stat out of existence
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M5AGTS
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 3,011
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Post by M5AGTS on Aug 5, 2022 15:33:59 GMT -5
It will be super close either way. Honestly because of that this week is really exciting. It's a very tight three way race between bms, adt, and aiw. I really don't want aiw to go back to number one again. It's a good song, but it's had its time. Have we had a song have five turns at #1? No. The most is 4. It happened with Nice For What and Mood. |
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M5AGTS
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 3,011
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Post by M5AGTS on Aug 5, 2022 15:35:28 GMT -5
Tbh I hope AIW does it because it's the last chance anyone has to break the record before AIWFCIY basically deletes that chart stat out of existence But there will still be that stat for non holiday songs. |
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Aug 5, 2022 16:55:07 GMT -5
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Post by nightvision on Aug 5, 2022 17:32:54 GMT -5
As it was 11th week @ numba 1, lets gooooo
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Post by kcdawg13 on Aug 5, 2022 17:53:39 GMT -5
Everyone in the prediction thread overestimated Beyonce's presence in the Top 10, it was no doubt Break My Soul was gonna jump but some people really thought she'd land 2-3 entries in the Top 10 even with its streaming losses, it looks like she'll only have 2 tracks in the Top 20 overall, and Alien Superstar could easily miss.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 5, 2022 19:49:37 GMT -5
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 5, 2022 19:57:02 GMT -5
6.8m on Spotify to 18,9m, that predictor must really Stan AM :)
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gs
Charting
Joined: October 2019
Posts: 453
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Post by gs on Aug 5, 2022 20:11:59 GMT -5
6.8m on Spotify to 18,9m, that predictor must really Stan AM  lol why are you obsessed with Spotify making up a small portion of the total, when Apple/TIDAL/Amazon/YouTube/Pandora exist? What do you think the streams will be? Seems like it'll be around 18M based on HITS streaming/units data. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 5, 2022 21:10:22 GMT -5
6.8m on Spotify to 18,9m, that predictor must really Stan AM lol why are you obsessed with Spotify making up a small portion of the total, when Apple/TIDAL/Amazon/YouTube/Pandora exist? What do you think the streams will be? Seems like it'll be around 18M based on HITS streaming/units data. I'm not obsessed with anything, I just think almost three times multiplier from Spotify for Beyoncé is a bit high. I mean like the predictor had it tied for #1, so any loss of streams is devastating, so even 18m from 18.9 that you said would be enough to not be #1. in my opinion, the predictor needed that many streams to make it number one so used it. plus I already commented early in the week look for Amazon and the soccer mom crowd to help get streams. |
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Aug 5, 2022 21:34:27 GMT -5
a few months ago:
wait for u: 9 million spotify = 40 million streams
puffin: 7.7 million spotify = 26.3 million
712: 5.6 million spotify = 22.1 million
i'm dat: 5 million spotify = 20 million
so it's far from impossible.
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gs
Charting
Joined: October 2019
Posts: 453
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Post by gs on Aug 5, 2022 22:20:49 GMT -5
lol why are you obsessed with Spotify making up a small portion of the total, when Apple/TIDAL/Amazon/YouTube/Pandora exist? What do you think the streams will be? Seems like it'll be around 18M based on HITS streaming/units data. I'm not obsessed with anything, I just think almost three times multiplier from Spotify for Beyoncé is a bit high. I mean like the predictor had it tied for #1, so any loss of streams is devastating, so even 18m from 18.9 that you said would be enough to not be #1. in my opinion, the predictor needed that many streams to make it number one so used it. plus I already commented early in the week look for Amazon and the soccer mom crowd to help get streams. Her first full week was officially 16.6 million and she had 5.948 million on Spotify that week. The same ratio this week gives 19 million. I don't think it will be quite that high, but you're acting like it's unusual when... it's not at all? |
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Post by big2000 on Aug 5, 2022 22:27:07 GMT -5
Circles Around This Town is still gaining on radio & just hit a new peak. Could it make a return to the hot 100? I believe it is currently in max spins week, which means it will start freefalling next week. I think the chances of it returning to the hot 100 are incredibly slim, but it would be nice. |
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Darkest Hour
Diamond Member
album listener
Joined: January 2017
Posts: 15,866
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Post by Darkest Hour on Aug 5, 2022 22:47:15 GMT -5
Doubt it but it would cool if it did, it only needs a week or two to make the YE. Country forum will be in shambles if they learned another favorite just missed out on YE this year like Drunk last year. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 5, 2022 22:57:24 GMT -5
A lot of songs look like they are competing for the 101-110 level rip.
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 5, 2022 23:27:22 GMT -5
I'm not obsessed with anything, I just think almost three times multiplier from Spotify for Beyoncé is a bit high. I mean like the predictor had it tied for #1, so any loss of streams is devastating, so even 18m from 18.9 that you said would be enough to not be #1. in my opinion, the predictor needed that many streams to make it number one so used it. plus I already commented early in the week look for Amazon and the soccer mom crowd to help get streams. Her first full week was officially 16.6 million and she had 5.948 million on Spotify that week. The same ratio this week gives 19 million. I don't think it will be quite that high, but you're acting like it's unusual when... it's not at all? It depends on the artist? No? For the vast majority of artists three times Spotify is high. But I am sure you can cherry pick some that aren't, that's what is great about stats, you can make em say whatever you want. I mean yes I'd be crazy if I said Drake or future was not getting three times Spotify. But in the end, the song struggled on AM not only for #1 but to be the highest song from the album as the week went on, it did not dominate there. Something you'd expect it to have done to see three times multipliers? No? Well we will see there's a big difference between the totals of the two final predictors so far. One of em is definitely wrong in the number of streams. |
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firefox
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,047
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Post by firefox on Aug 6, 2022 2:54:19 GMT -5
US Spotify - 08/04/22
192( DEBUT) Pierce the Veil, Kellin Quinn - King for a Day 231,777 I'm not sure but I think Tiktok is the reason why this song is getting a resurgence (or is it?). |
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R.K.
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2009
Posts: 1,790
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Post by R.K. on Aug 6, 2022 6:28:18 GMT -5
I still think BMS will get it if it’s just barely. Not only is she stronger on AM+Tidal than Spotify, the sales number from her websites is also being underestimated a bit, much like how they underestimated her album sales.
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Aug 6, 2022 15:36:38 GMT -5
a few months ago: wait for u: 9 million spotify = 40 million streams puffin: 7.7 million spotify = 26.3 million 712: 5.6 million spotify = 22.1 million i'm dat: 5 million spotify = 20 million so it's far from impossible. These are all rap songs which obviously had higher AM numbers. Are you serious? |
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Aug 6, 2022 16:16:19 GMT -5
 yes i'm serious. |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 6, 2022 18:14:13 GMT -5
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Aug 6, 2022 19:14:46 GMT -5
sunroof feels like a non-entity, but ig radio stans it.
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
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Post by jasper0102 on Aug 6, 2022 19:22:21 GMT -5
sunroof feels like a non-entity, but ig radio stans it. Even as someone who really likes Sunroof, I have to agree with you on that. I still don’t know why it doesn’t have more streaming. |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 6, 2022 19:40:53 GMT -5
Hits Daily Double has "BREAK MY SOUL" at #3 for overall audio streaming this week, with 15,538,648. (111% increase)
on the YouTube Music weekly chart, "BREAK MY SOUL" clocks in 2.28 million streams with the lyric video. (96% increase)
that adds up to around 17.8 million.
since "BREAK MY SOUL" officially did 8.8 million last week per Billboard despite 7.3 million audio per HDD and 1.16 million per YouTube, there's a nice 5% difference there, which would bring this week's Billboard streaming total up to an estimated 18.7 million.
it will be close, but digital sales can swing this in favor of "BREAK MY SOUL." and hey, it's the least radio-driven option for #1 this week among the three songs vying for the top (and even beats "RUTH" by a percentage point in that regard).
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